Casey McGehee and JJ Hardy for Delmon Young and Nick Blackburn/or/Kevin Slowey

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

So i've been pumped about the late Twins surge to hopefully overtake Detroit for the playoffs and started thinking about each team's needs. The Twins largely have a surplus of cheap pitching (all average to above average guys) who are still in their mid 20s. Delmon Young was an elite prospect before his infamous minor league suspension, yet still has the potential to breakout and help salvage that awful 2003 draft class.

 

Why we do it: We get cheaper at SS, and get a legit top of the rotation starter (blackburn or someone else). Simply put, we need to bring in a decent pitcher next year that is cheap enough and young enough to improve for our next window, be it 2011 or 2012. McGehee is a nice piece, but we should sell high. Gamel takes over at 3B, Weeks back at 2B, Escobar at Short, we don't have room for Casey. Young might simply need a change of scenery and given Hart's lack of production, we either trade Hart (and replace him with Young), or move Hart to CF (let Cameron Walk), or keep Young as a fourth outfielder (Gerut was simply awful this season for us),

 

Why the Twins do it. This is their window. Hardy & McGehee would replace Punto/Crede for the Twins and would instantly improve an offense built around Mauer and Morneau. This would signal the M&M duo that the Twins are serious about winning and going for it while Nathan is still around. Span has developed into a nice leadoff hitter for the Twins, and Hardy, McGehee, Span, Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel give the team some serious potential in 2010 if the pitching improves (should with another year under their belt for the young pitching staff)

 

We might have to throw in Lucroy or Salmone (in case the Twins lose Mauer) is we want blackburn/slowey as opposed to a Duensing/Perkins, but i'd target any of the young arms Minnesota has (no, not Liriano)... whoever we could get would likely instantly become our #2 start behind Yo. Blackburn or Slowey might even push Yo to a #2.

[marty22]

Blackburn is no "top of the rotation starter". i like slowey, and wanted to trade for him last year. But no way do we give up casey and JJ for blackburn

[marty22]

and why not Liriano? JJ for Liriano? or am i dreaming?

[dadofandrew]

Hardy for Perkins is something I talked about weeks ao, as both are coming off down years, and both have service time issues. There would need to be some fine tuning.

 

I don't see the Twins moving a top SP, or a top prospect.

[Never Outhustled]

Perkins isn't coming off a down year, this is all the better he is, he was lucky before this. His stuff is very mediocre.

 

Delmon Young is wretched. He's below replacement level for the 2nd year in a row. He was clearly a juicer who is a shell of his enhancer former self. He doesn't belong in the majors.

 

The Twins pitching was bad this year. Only 3 AL teams have worse ERAs. They have the same need we do. Despite there soft middle infield, they still score enough runs.

[dadofandrew]

The Twins ERA is only 0.13 above AL average, so they are from poor in that department. And while I think Hardy is worth than Perkins, I'd be giddy to get him. He's not an ace, but he is a solid pitcher who would be under team control for quite a while.

[nate82]

and why not Liriano? JJ for Liriano? or am i dreaming?

I'm not sure Liriano is really a viable option for the Brewers. I wouldn't mind a Liriano for Hardy deal but there are question marks surrounding Liriano. Mainly he needs to find a third pitch again. With the TJ surgery his slider hasn't been the same and that was his out pitch and his velocity is down on his fastball. That leaves Liriano with a Fastball, a Change Up, and a Slider. Liriano's slider right now just is not good enough to get hitters out consistently and that is one of the main reasons why he has been struggling this year. He basically has to hit the corners with his fastball and his change up to get hitters out right now.

 

His fastball is still good and his change is rather good still yet but he doesn't have that third pitch in his slider that he can throw effectively anymore. Maybe next year will be different for Liriano and he will be able to throw his slider more effectively

 

Liriano also had problems with his elbow this year again but he is looking to be coming back sometime this year in the bullpen. Liriano has increased his speed on his slider this year from last year. I don't see the Twins giving up on Liriano though but both Liriano and Hardy would be great buy low candidates.

[dadofandrew]

Of course, not many teams are going to be looking to trade an ace, especially a young one, especially for JJ. A young pitcher with some ceiling, who has had some success, is probably all you can hope for. Perkins fits that mold, though Doug has shown himself to like velocity, and Perkins is far from a hard thrower.

[TracyThom]

I think the Twins are the best fit for a JJ trade. However, I don't think the Twins would give up Slowey for JJ. I could see them wanting to deal someone like Blackburn or Anthony Swarzak for him.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I can tell you that we'd never get Slowey for JJ. As i noted in the original post, it would probably take JJ, McGehee, and either Lucroy/Salmone. Delmon Young comes back to the Brewers as a "throw in"... As someone that has been to about 20 Twins games, i can tell you that the pitching staff simply has had a very down year. However, unlike the Brewers who field Looper, Suppan, etc, the Twins rotation is full of pitchers in their first 1-3 seasons in MLB who are taking their lumps early in their career and are likely the improve.

 

Simply put, the Brewers need to trade for pitchers in year 3-5 of their MLB career. If they they've shown they are above replacement level, are still cheap, and are young enough to expect improvement, then thats exactly who we should target. JJ/McGehee are "extra parts" at this point, and there are a limited amount of teams that might trade a pre-arby pitcher in their early/mid-20s. Given the Twins infield needs, this seems to be a good match.

 

2009 Stats for Comparison

Gallardo 3.84 ERA 1.32 WHIP (23)

Looper 4.89 ERA 1.46 WHIP (34)

Suppan 4.87 ERA 1.69 WHIP (34)

Bush 5.88 ERA 1.38 WHIP (29)

Parra 6.42 ERA 1.84 WHIP (26)

 

Twins Trade Targets?

Blackburn 4.34 ERA 1.42 WHIP (27) - note this is with an AWFUL 2nd half... he had an ERA of 3.07 pre all-star break and has shown his youth in the 2nd half (2nd full season)

Slowely 4.86 ERA 1.41 WHIP - (25)- note 2nd full season. His rookie year he had a 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. I think Slowey is due for a Zach Greinke like breakout in 2010

Perkins 5.89 ERA 1.48 WHIP - (26)- also 2nd full season (LHP- profiles similar to Manny Parra per baseball-reference

Swarzak - ERA/WHIP in rookie season (23) nothing to write home about.... but another young arm to target

Duensing 2.00 ERA (in six starts as a starter)- (26)- rookie this season

Scott Baker (3.45/4.35 ERAs the past 2 seasons, but outstanding WHIPS 1.17, 1.15. Doubtful the Twins trade him

Throw in Manship, Liriano, Pavano, and the Twins have atleast nine pitchers fighting for FIVE spots next season

[Tbadder]

This is exactly the kind of trade we should make. Sure, I want Slowey, and maybe we could get him if Young is not just a pretender, but a pariah. Find someone that the Twinkies want to get rid of badly and maybe, just matbe, Slowey comes our way. I also love the idea of getting rid of Casey. He's gonna flop next year.

[dadofandrew]

I proposed Perkins and Swarzak for Hardy, and while we might need to add something, Seth at Seth Speaks said he'd do that, as he sees Hardy's down year as a fluke, and sees him adding several wins to the Twins weak SS situation. He also told me they see Swarzak as a #3 guy in the future, while I had him as more of a bottom of the rotation guy.

 

As for the original, Young is still young, and while weak defensively, has hit near a league average level. I'd look into his past in TB...if he has desire and such, he might be a buy low candidate. If he's happy where he is, and complains, I have no interest.

[Katuluu]

The Twins are going to be dealing either Young or Gomez over the winter as Cuddyer and Span are fixtures. Most likely Young as he's a dead pull hitter and mediocre defensive outfielder, two things that the Twins hate. Honestly Young seems like a player that could breakout if the reigns are taken off him, similar to what happened to Ortiz. Sitting him three times a week and preaching at him to always go the other way seems like the wrong way to get him to maximize his potential. Plus next year will only be his 24yo year.

 

Perkins has injury issues at this point. Two out of the last three years he's missed over 100 games to to shoulder and elbow injuries. As much as I like him, that's a big risk to take. Blackburn has a lower ceiling, but he's a bulldog and maximizes his ability. Slowey would be the dream guy to get, as he's a potential stud.

 

Offer Hardy and McGehee and take back Young and Punto and you might get Slowey. But that's a long shot.

[piccione88]

I would not mind seeing McGehee moved for Blackburn, and a low-level high ceiling prospect, like Lobanov. Blackburn's second half does not worry me that much, his BABIP in the second half, is over .350 so he has been a bit unlucky in the hit department, and his K/BB rate is almost a full point higher in the second half. His second half homerun rate does scare me a bit, but he has not had a big problem with homeruns in his career, his high HR/G in the minors was in 2003 when he gave up 1.5/G for Quad Cities, the only year in the minors that he gave up over 1.0 HR/G.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

McGehee alone is not worth Blackburn. Blackburn and Punto for McGehee and Hardy might get it done.

[trwi7]

McGehee alone is not worth Blackburn. Blackburn and Punto for McGehee and Hardy might get it done.

If it takes both of them to get Blackburn and we have to take Punto back, I'd rather look somewhere else.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

if we're not willing to trade McGehee/Hardy (two spare parts) for Blackburn, we're never going to improve. Blackburn has struggled in the 2nd half of both of his first two seasons, but he also plays in the homer-dome. I'd say there is atleast a 30-40% chance that Blackburn will end up with a better career than Gallardo.

 

People can disagree obviously, but we have to give up something to get something. Blackburn would easily be a top-2 pitcher on our staff in 2010, and could very well breakout (think Zach Greinke).

 

The Brewers could also be very bold and do a JJ Hardy/Lawrie for Blackburn/Swarzak deal. Simply put, if i could trade the Twins rotation for the Brewers rotation (from the Brewers perspective), i'd do it in a second. The Twins rotation is what we should be trying to build towards.

[piccione88]

I think you are overvaluing Blackburn by quite a bit. Blackburn simply does not have the stuff to have a year like Greinke has this year. He is a nice middle-back of the rotation starter, because he throws strikes, and eats up innings. You are not getting a ton of upside with Blackburn though. McGehee is coming off of a monster year at third base. Yes it very well could be a fluke, but there will be a couple of GM's out there who will be willing to take a chance on him.

 

McGehee for Blackburn, and Lobanov may be asking a bit too much, but throwing Hardy in there, is giving up way too much for Blackburn. Hardy had a terrible year. However, for the same reason that most GM's will not be too excited about McGehee, Hardy has value. We all saw firsthand what Hardy is capable of in 2007, and 2008. If BIll Smith is one of the GM's that has some faith in McGehee, I would imagine that throwing in a top 20 prospect, would be enough to get a blackburn deal done.

[804Sox]

People need to stop throwing Greinke's name around when they talk about breakout players/candidates. Simply put, none of these other players have Greinke's pedigree as a prospect or pure stuff, which is among the game's best.

[MNBrew]

if we're not willing to trade McGehee/Hardy (two spare parts) for Blackburn, we're never going to improve. Blackburn has struggled in the 2nd half of both of his first two seasons, but he also plays in the homer-dome. I'd say there is atleast a 30-40% chance that Blackburn will end up with a better career than Gallardo.

TBWS, I've probably watched as many Twins games as you have. You must be seeing a different Blackburn. Yes, he was quite good in the 1st half. But he's been poor in the 2nd half -- not average, but definitely poor.

 

Hardy's hardly a spare part. Prior to this season's slump, he's been one of the best all-around shortstops in the NL, offensively and defensively. He's had a bad year at the plate, but still very solid defensively. Escobar is likely this team's future at SS, which gives the Crew enough SS depth to make Hardy trade bait. But that's different than being a spare part.

 

McGehee is having a great rookie year. The only "too bad" thing for him is that his playing time really didn't become substantial 'til the season was already at least 1/4 or more over. Otherwise he'd probably be a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year. Once again, the Brewers have depth at every position McGehee plays, including 3B, where Gamel has been the brightest prospect. Potentially expendable? Yes. But that also doesn't make him a spare part.

 

I agree in principle that the Twins (starting pitchers) are definitely a possible trade match with the Brewers (infielders). I just think you're overvaluing the Twins' side of your suggested equation.

[Katuluu]

McGehee alone is not worth Blackburn. Blackburn and Punto for McGehee and Hardy might get it done.

If it takes both of them to get Blackburn and we have to take Punto back, I'd rather look somewhere else.

It won't. Blackburn is a #3 at best. His stuff is average and his upside is negligible, but he maximizes what he has. If anyone on the Twins rotation has a chance at breaking out its Slowey.

[Never Outhustled]

I'd say there is atleast a 30-40% chance that Blackburn will end up with a better career than Gallardo

Blackburn will be 28 to start next year, he's 4 years older than Gallaro, and yet isn't as good. Blackburn doesn't miss bats, his K rate is an embarassing 4.05K/9. Thats horrible. His average FB is 2 MPH slower than Gallardo. Theres nothing interesting about Blackburn.

 

Blackburn is just .9 WAR better than Hardy this year, and Hardy was worth more WAR in 2008 than Blackburn is in 2008 and 2009 combined!

 

The Twins need pitching. These guys they have in their rotation now are devoid of upside.