What return could we expect for Hardy

[ELCABALLO45]

Numbers are saturated pitching in the AL East. I would expect him to do quite well in the NL Central next year.

Chad Gaudin as a Yankee - 3.17 ERA

 

Chad Gaudin as a Cub - 6.26 ERA

 

I have not really said anything about Hardy up until now, I think the Brewers will get alot better player then Guthrie.

 

Hardy's trade value is down yes, but come on. He is a great defensive shortstop, he is 27 years old and has 2 years left before he is a FA. If he was having the year he had last year (which I know he's not) he would be 3rd in the NL in OPS by a SS. You just don't get the production out of a shortstop that Hardy was giving Milwaukee, a couple teams are going to see Hardy and be willing to take a risk of him.

[804Sox]

Numbers are saturated pitching in the AL East. I would expect him to do quite well in the NL Central next year.

Chad Gaudin as a Yankee - 3.17 ERA

 

Chad Gaudin as a Cub - 6.26 ERA

 

I have not really said anything about Hardy up until now, I think the Brewers will get alot better player then Guthrie.

 

Hardy's trade value is down yes, but come on. He is a great defensive shortstop, he is 27 years old and has 2 years left before he is a FA. If he was having the year he had last year (which I know he's not) he would be 3rd in the NL in OPS by a SS. You just don't get the production out of a shortstop that Hardy was giving Milwaukee, a couple teams are going to see Hardy and be willing to take a risk of him.

Awesome point! The NL Central definitely is on par with the AL East as far as ERA adjustment is concerned . . .

 

Chad Gaudin as a Yankee: 34.0 IP . . . (how's that sample size?)

 

If we're gonna cherry-pick

 

John Smoltz

BOS: 40.0 IP - 8.33 ERA,

STL: 34.0 IP - 3.18 ERA

 

Edit: Perhaps a better comparison though, is Ted Lilly

 

TOR: 505.1 IP - 4.52 ERA

CHC: 581.2 IP - 3.68 ERA

 

Edit #2: And I still think Hardy is worth more than Guthrie. He just hasn't impressed me when I've seen him.

[ELCABALLO45]

Numbers are saturated pitching in the AL East. I would expect him to do quite well in the NL Central next year.

Chad Gaudin as a Yankee - 3.17 ERA

 

Chad Gaudin as a Cub - 6.26 ERA

 

I have not really said anything about Hardy up until now, I think the Brewers will get alot better player then Guthrie.

 

Hardy's trade value is down yes, but come on. He is a great defensive shortstop, he is 27 years old and has 2 years left before he is a FA. If he was having the year he had last year (which I know he's not) he would be 3rd in the NL in OPS by a SS. You just don't get the production out of a shortstop that Hardy was giving Milwaukee, a couple teams are going to see Hardy and be willing to take a risk of him.

Awesome point! The NL Central definitely is on par with the AL East as far as ERA adjustment is concerned . . .

Yeah because that's exactly what I was saying

 

I was just pointing out that going from the AL to the NL doesn't automatically turn you into some great pitcher.

 

Is it more hard? Sure. But its not like its a guarentee thing.

 

Gaudin pitching in the AL - 4.29

NL - 5.36

 

Derrek Lee will crush a 90 MPH fastball just as quickly as Alex Rodriguez will.

[804Sox]

Derrek Lee will crush a 90 MPH fastball just as quickly as Alex Rodriguez will.

Yeah, but Aaron Harang won't . . .

 

In any case, of course moving to the NL won't make Guthrie a better pitcher. changing leagues can't make someone a better or worse pitcher. What it can do, however, is allow for a reasonable adjustment in ERA projection . So, if we assume based on his career numbers and recent performance that Guthrie is approximately a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL East, arguably the best offensive division in the league with a DH, then we can maybe project him to be a 3.85-4.20 ish pitcher in the NL Central, a good offensive division in the league without a dh.

 

The fact that there are outliers doesn't change the logic or validity of this projection, though my numbers are pure guesswork. Guthrie's NL Central stats next year could be worse than his '07 and '08 stats (and likely would be) or better; and they could be better or worse than his '09 stats (I think the 5.00+ ERA this year is kind of flukey, but he's not as good as his 3.70 ERAs in '07 and '08) but a lot of that has to do with with luck and random variation.

 

w.r.t. gaudin, his stats are somewhat deceiving. Aside from 2008, he's always pitched much better in relief (as he has been used in NY until recently) than as a starter (as he was used in SD). Not surprisingly, he has spent most of his time in the AL as a reliever, and most of his time in the NL as a starter. In general, his NL sample is too small to make many generalization (only 130ish IP), but hiis ChC stats, already a very inconclusive 27 IP sample, are greatly skewed by the 10ER he gave up in 2 outings during a 4-appearance span near the end of the '08 season.

[twobrewers]

Could Hardy be packaged for King Felix?

It sounds like Seattle knows King Felix isn't going to be around by the time they turn the corner - and will look to trade him this off-season. While Seattle would certainly like Escobar more than Hardy, Hardy could play for two years and net them two draft picks in the future.

Hardy, Salome, Gamel and Jeffress for Felix Hernandez?

Hardy gives them a very good shortstop and two picks when he leaves. Salome is somewhat expendable if you believe in Lucroy. Jeffress gives them a top-flight pitching prospect - ceiling wise at least. (Can he be traded while suspended as a PTBNL?) And Gamel gives them a top-flight prospect, but would require a lot of faith in Casey McGahee.

[trwi7]

I really doubt it. They have Adam Moore as a C of the future, so there's no need for Salome, Gamel is nice, they'd definitely want Escobar and Jeffress has no value.

[barbados73]

I could see Hardy as part of a package for King Felix, but as trwi7 said Salome and Jefferies would have to be replace. Probably needs to be Lawrie and someone like Ordozzi(spelling not right but you get the idea), and even that probably wouldn't get it done if you believe the reports of what the Red Sox were offering before the deadline.

[Polish Falcons]

Lots of focus on Guthrie here... It seems like a realistic trade possibility, but there must be about a dozen other options to brainstorm. Any new ideas?

[yoshii8]

I wouldn't mind going after Morrow and Aumont from Seattle, they both had down years but have huge upside. However I'm not sure if they are just going to go w/ Jack Wilson next season.

 

Another team I wouldn't rule out is Toronto, Scutaro is a free agent and I could see them making a run at Hardy. They have a lot of pitchers w/ injury issues, but always seem to have a number of good young pitchers.

[Hate those Rodents]

What's the deal with McGowan? I know he's hurt, but are the odds of him being healthy enough to help us next year worth possibly buying low on his uncertainty?

[TheCrew07]

I'll take an elbow injury and TJ surgery (Marcum) over a shoulder injury and surgery (McGowan) even though McGowan's stuff was better prior to their injuries.

[Nilihism]

The Brewers should be able to get a nice young pitcher for Hardy, anything else is failure.