What return could we expect for Hardy

[logan82]

Has to start with pitching. I would think a position player anywhere other than catcher would be out of the question. Even there we have 2 good prospects and one should be ready to start in the majors by 2011. We have a glut of infielders. LF is locked up for a few years. There is a good chance we move one of our infielders to the other corner. At worst we already have a left side of a platoon in CF for next year in Gerut. Our needs pretty much start and end with stating pitching.

[Hate those Rodents]

Guthrie is the perfect straight up match. It's good for both teams. A buy-low and a sell-low for both teams. Both had poor seasons this year and much more respectable ones the year before. Yet, I'd have done this trade after JJ's good year and Guthries good year prior to this season (still would have matched up well value-wise). I see no reason why the two teams need to even bring up any other names. The trade works perfectly for both teams and is doesn't need to get complicated with prospects or salaries.

 

BTW, can you link where in your forum you have the threads with JJ talk? I tried sifting through but found a multitude of threads on that site (which means there's lots of interest in the O's and that is a good thing)!

[Greg Pappas]

Guthrie is the perfect straight up match. It's good for both teams. A buy-low and a sell-low for both teams. Both had poor seasons this year and much more respectable ones the year before. Yet, I'd have done this trade after JJ's good year and Guthries good year prior to this season (still would have matched up well value-wise). I see no reason why the two teams need to even bring up any other names. The trade works perfectly for both teams and is doesn't need to get complicated with prospects or salaries.

 

BTW, can you link where in your forum you have the threads with JJ talk? I tried sifting through but found a multitude of threads on that site (which means there's lots of interest in the O's and that is a good thing)!

The Guthrie for Hardy deal is probably fair for both sides, but I expect Guthrie to remain an O. MacPhail had to notice the improvment Guthrie has had as the season has wound down, and as the staff's default #1 starter (for now) he'll likely remain to help eat innings and continue to set a sloid example as a hard-worker for our talented remaining starters. We are blessed with outstanding young pitching talent, so perhaps something could be worked out (outside of dealing Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta/Bergesen).

 

I just started a new thread about it... this should help.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am not certain we'd have a match, though several here would love to target your prospects. I think Hardy goes for a starting pitcher ready to help us in 2010. We might have to look to other teams like maybe Boston, Cincinatti, and Minnesota to get that. I could be wrong though, and I wouldn't be opposed to adding pitching prospects in a Hardy deal, but I have an incredibly strong feeling that Melvin will target immediate starting pitching help only in any JJ deal.

[trwi7]

I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but Zach Britton is the guy from the O's I would target.

[Greg Pappas]

Britton (21) is an oustanding young lefty drafted in the third round out of a Texas HS a few drafts ago, and has really established himself as a Top 100 Prospect with his progress at High-A ball. I'd say his value is high, but will likely improve quite a bit with his continued progress next season. Our 'GM' Andy MacPhail values pitchers as much as any in baseball, so a young lefty like Britton would be hard to pry away. =) Personally, I'd make that deal, one-for-one.

[piccione88]

I think that Britton for Hardy is not the direction for either team to go. The orioles are poised to have one of the best rotations on the cheap in a few years. Trading away any of those top pitchers does not make sense to me. The Brewers on the other hand have a chance to contend next year, provided we get a couple of major league ready starters. Britton, although a very good prospect with great potential will not be ready for a couple of years. I really like the idea of aquiring Guthrie, he seems like he could have a good deal of success in the NL.

 

The orioles in my opinion seem to be a very good option, and like the idea of getting Pie, if we do not go after Cameron. What does everyone think about a trade of Hardy, Taylor Green, and Carlos Villanueva to the orioles for, Guthrie, Pie, and Liz. Guthrie gives the Brewers a pitcher to slot in the middle of the rotation, Pie who was once very highly thought of, and had some success this year in somewhat limited playing time, and Liz a pitcher who has looked horrible in just about every opportunity he has had in the majors, but his minor league numbers still look promising. The orioles get a former all-star shortstop, a nice prospect in Green, and a decent pitcher who gives the orioles some options. Is that possible?

[ILuvDaBush]

Isn't Taylor Green a bit redundant with their recent trade for Josh Bell of the Dodgy Fellows? And I'd still rather have Villy than Liz (as I think we set him up for failure by anointing him our closer-indsight is always 20/20).

 

As for Guthrie, I would hope we could get a better haul. But whatever it takes to jettison the black cloud that is Hardy, the quicker the better. We ensured that his contract would have twice the value this offseason at the price of alienating him. I get chills imagining Alcides and Rickie turning the double play. Escobar-to-Weeks-to-Fielder.

[Greg Pappas]

I think that Britton for Hardy is not the direction for either team to go. The orioles are poised to have one of the best rotations on the cheap in a few years. Trading away any of those top pitchers does not make sense to me. The Brewers on the other hand have a chance to contend next year, provided we get a couple of major league ready starters. Britton, although a very good prospect with great potential will not be ready for a couple of years. I really like the idea of aquiring Guthrie, he seems like he could have a good deal of success in the NL.

 

The orioles in my opinion seem to be a very good option, and like the idea of getting Pie, if we do not go after Cameron. What does everyone think about a trade of Hardy, Taylor Green, and Carlos Villanueva to the orioles for, Guthrie, Pie, and Liz. Guthrie gives the Brewers a pitcher to slot in the middle of the rotation, Pie who was once very highly thought of, and had some success this year in somewhat limited playing time, and Liz a pitcher who has looked horrible in just about every opportunity he has had in the majors, but his minor league numbers still look promising. The orioles get a former all-star shortstop, a nice prospect in Green, and a decent pitcher who gives the orioles some options. Is that possible?

I agree that Britton makes less than others, but rather was replying to the other poster's inquiry on him. The O's would not do that 3 for 3 you proposed... but again, I think some sort of deal could be worked out... there are many possibilities.

[dadofandrew]

Pie might be available, as he is blocked by 3 good young OF's.

[jjfanec]

There are a lot of questions about what Hardy is worth, so I thought I would post what a Jerry Crasnick article at espn said. This is a quote from the article about Hardy

"He should have real value," an AL assistant GM said of Hardy. "He's an average-to-above-average defensive player, he's demonstrated the ability to hit with some pop, and that's such a positional need for so many clubs."

That is an encouraging thing to hear. I am still holding out hope we can get good value for JJ. Melvin should call up this assistant GM and work something out.

[Hate those Rodents]

That is nice to see. Thanks for the link. Honestly, I won't even search out ESPN stuff anymore because it is slow loading for me with all the java, there's always a popup it seems even though hardly any other sites I go to give me a popup, and almost everything there seems to be an insider article.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm addicted to Simmons and Easterbrook. Otherwise...agree.

 

As for Hardy, what about the Angels? Would Arredondo be a possibility? It's a "chicken or the egg" comparison when it comes to starting or relief for me. He would be controllable for another 5 years and he has a Marmol-type ceiling on that arm.

[RockCoCougars]

The Guthrie for Hardy deal is probably fair for both sides, but I expect Guthrie to remain an O. MacPhail had to notice the improvment Guthrie has had as the season has wound down, and as the staff's default #1 starter (for now) he'll likely remain to help eat innings and continue to set a sloid example as a hard-worker for our talented remaining starters.

I want no part of another soft-tossing "innings eater". If Hardy must be traded, he needs to be packaged with something to bring a solid pitcher or he should be traded for pitching prospects with some upside. Trading him for Guthrie reeks of Burnitz for Glendon Rusch to me.

[ILuvDaBush]

And who doesn't love a good "Belliard v. Loretta" debate?

 

But seriously, I think simply a full year with Weeks/Escobar up the middle should improve our pitchers' numbers inherently. Our best defensive double-play duo has not played an inning together at the ML level this year. Instead, we've been treated to the Counsell-McGehee and Lopez-Hardy variety show. Whatever gravy we get from trading Hardy will be dressing in next year's Prince Salad (5yr/$84M...final offer. 4 years of FA cost $$$). But that debate is for another time.

[Hate those Rodents]

I want no part of another soft-tossing "innings eater". If Hardy must be traded, he needs to be packaged with something to bring a solid pitcher or he should be traded for pitching prospects with some upside. Trading him for Guthrie reeks of Burnitz for Glendon Rusch to me.

Guthrie is a harder thrower than you think. And when we traded Burnie, he was coming off a very nice season, not a JJ 2009 season.

[Greg Pappas]

The Guthrie for Hardy deal is probably fair for both sides, but I expect Guthrie to remain an O. MacPhail had to notice the improvment Guthrie has had as the season has wound down, and as the staff's default #1 starter (for now) he'll likely remain to help eat innings and continue to set a sloid example as a hard-worker for our talented remaining starters.

I want no part of another soft-tossing "innings eater". If Hardy must be traded, he needs to be packaged with something to bring a solid pitcher or he should be traded for pitching prospects with some upside. Trading him for Guthrie reeks of Burnitz for Glendon Rusch to me.

 

Guthrie throws low to mid nineties.

[endaround]

Sure but he doesn't strike anyone out and has control issues.

[yogallardo43]

I dont know if I would say Guthrie has control issues. He has averaged under 3 BB/9 the past three seasons.

[endaround]

By that I mean for a guy who doesn't strike many out he walks too many. He's also likely past his prime (31 in April) and so his two decent seasons on 2007 and 2008 are likely his career years.

[Hate those Rodents]

To be able to get a guy that can be slotted ahead of Bush and Parra (and Suppan if you penciled him into next year's rotation for which I don't) at a reasonable salary and under control for a few years for just JJ....................I just think we should stop coming up with reasons NOT to make this trade if we can. I can come up with warts for any name with any chance of coming to Milwaukee this off-season to help our starting staff out, and probably many more warts than Guthrie would possess.

[endaround]

Hardy's WAR for the last 3 years: 4.5, 4.9, 1.4. Guthrie's WAR for the last three years: 2.6, 2.5, 1.1. So we are trading the younger more talented player for an older player likely past his prime.

[Hate those Rodents]

Is this the same stat that said JJ was worth 20 million last year? Rather than use one of fifty peculiar stat formulas, tell me the starting pitcher you'd like to get for Hardy, and I'll tell you about his warts. Or, if you don't want to trade Hardy for a starter, tell me the two guys you plan to bring in to help the rotation, and I'll tell you about THEIR warts.

 

You want to shoot down Guthrie. I'm telling you he is as good as we can get on many levels. If you disagree, tell me about the two starters you'd get.

[RockCoCougars]

By many accounts, Guthrie's velocity has been down this year. Plus he will be thirty one years old next year, meaning he's probably already peaked. His strikeout levels have been dropping each year. It's doubtful he's going to get any better, so why does anybody think that he could be a 2-3 pitcher on a good team? The fact that he's the 'ace' of the Orioles staff is pretty much meaningless. I think Suppan was the 'ace' of the Royals staff at one point.

[Hate those Rodents]

Numbers are saturated pitching in the AL East. I would expect him to do quite well in the NL Central next year.