What return could we expect for Hardy

[piccione88]

MLBtraderumors posted an article from prospectinsider.com, in the article the author calls for the mariners to make a play at JJ Hardy. Hardy to put it lightly, is coming off of a down year, with that said he has upside, some people, consider him to be an above average to good defender at short, and he has something that is lacking from this years shortstop free agent class, power. There are a number of teams that will be looking for a new shortstop this off-season including the Mariners, Royals, Twins, Nationals, and Orioles among others. So my question is what can the Brewers expect to get in return for Hardy.

[Hate those Rodents]

I expect a guthrie type starter along with a scarpetta type A ball pitching prospect if we are trading JJ by himself.

[Hate those Rodents]

And let me propose this in your thread and see what people think. Contingent on getting enough pitching in other ways and knowing Prince is likely gone in the next 1-2 years, would you trade JJ straight up for Lars Anderson?

[trwi7]

would you trade JJ straight up for Lars Anderson?

Absolutely not.

[804Sox]

would you trade JJ straight up for Lars Anderson?

Absolutely not.

That's good, neither would the Sox. Lars was a top 20 prospect in baseball coming into this year. An Escobar-type prospect. You don't give up on him after one down year as a 21yro in AA, particularly when he was dealing with back problems throughout much of the season and demonstrated the ability to hit AA pitching (although in a small sample size) the year before.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think Hardy is being over-valued, as with Anderson in the last two posts. Accordingly, both we be bought at their low in this exchange. A year ago, at their highs together, both sides likely would have said the same. This deal would make a ton of sense, but Doug will probably (rightfully maybe) get some starting help back in any JJ deal. I'd do it though.

[Tbadder]

If I'm another team, I'm giving almost nothing. Let the Brewers suffer internally if they believe someone is going to give any thing near equal value. As soon as they promoted Escobar they screwed themselves, and now it's time to pay the piper. If they do get a good player in return I would suggest they got one from an incompetent GM.

[Never Outhustled]

If I'm another team, I'm giving almost nothing. Let the Brewers suffer internally if they believe someone is going to give any thing near equal value.

But what if the other GMs main goal is to improve his team, and he needs a SS? Is it more important to put the screws to a team, or is it more important to fill your holes? The Orioles look to be pretty good in 2011, and would be better if they had Hardy.

[Hate those Rodents]

Isn't an Anderson for Hardy deal great buy-lows for both teams and gives us a great chance at getting a good 1B of the future that would arrive precisely when we needed him?

[endaround]

If I'm another team, I'm giving almost nothing. Let the Brewers suffer internally if they believe someone is going to give any thing near equal value. As soon as they promoted Escobar they screwed themselves, and now it's time to pay the piper. If they do get a good player in return I would suggest they got one from an incompetent GM.

 

Its the exact opposite, there would be a need to move Hardy before when he was gone after 2010, now there isn't. If tehy don't get a good offer they can send Escobar down and have him actually earn his way up. As for Anderson, the one thing the Brewers can draft are power hitting 1B. Why trade for one who might end up being a product of his A+ ball park when you can likely pull out a college slugger who will be better faster anyway?

[Hate those Rodents]

If tehy don't get a good offer they can send Escobar down and have him actually earn his way up. As for Anderson, the one thing the Brewers can draft are power hitting 1B.

Shouldn't Hardy be the one to have to earn his way up? He was brutal in AAA and brutal in MLB all year.

[Invader3K]

Its the exact opposite, there would be a need to move Hardy before when he was gone after 2010, now there isn't. If tehy don't get a good offer they can send Escobar down and have him actually earn his way up. As for Anderson, the one thing the Brewers can draft are power hitting 1B. Why trade for one who might end up being a product of his A+ ball park when you can likely pull out a college slugger who will be better faster anyway?

Your anti-Escobar sentiment is getting kind of old. He's not exactly playing poorly in MLB right now, and I doubt was going to do much more in AAA. Hardy on the other hand, as pointed out, was terrible this year.

[logan82]

Escobar is hitting pretty poorly. His OPS is .644. He is barely out OPSing Kendall and his noodle bat.

[Hate those Rodents]

JJ Hardy had a .284 OBP in AAA in his time there.

Alcides Escobar is at .306 OBP in MLB in his time here.

 

Escobar gets on base more in MLB than Hardy does in AAA........and can at least jog a bit when he is on base.

 

And is JJ's .651 that much more impressive OVER A FULL SEASON BASICALLY than Escobar's .644? Laughable.

 

Good riddance JJ. Though I wish you all the best in the AL next year.

[804Sox]

And Escobar is pretty young, and likely still adjusting to MLB pitching. PLus, regardless of how he's hitting, his glove and his speed make him a valuable player. More valuable than JJ with 10 more OPS points . . .

[endaround]

Hardy did have a terrible year. But Hardy's terrible, rotten, no good, very bad year is the expectation of what Escobar would do right now. Gamel hit in MLB what Escobar hit in AAA and got sent down for it.

[trwi7]

Would anyone trade Hardy to Baltimore for Zach Britton? Would Baltimore do that trade? He's a great target for us. Lefty, good stuff, good strikeout rate and huge ground ball numbers. The only con is he wouldn't be ready next year as he's only played in A+ this year.

[Hate those Rodents]

Meh, we'll just drop the Hardy/Escobar discussion. If I feel the need to read the "Custard's Last Stand" episode of JJ's loyal posse reaching to defend him amidst his final weeks in a Brewer uni, I'll head over to the MLB forum.

 

I really like Baltimore as a trading option for JJ. I am in the minority but my liking really is Jeremy Guthrie. Here's a guy you control THROUGH 2012 and you are buying low. He's having a poor year after two very good years where he showed he was at least a #3 starter. He won't cost a lot either and is 30 years old, so he should still have his stuff for the next three years for us. This would be a very smart way to upgrade our rotation imho, and we might even be able get a sweetener too. But I know some want nothing to do with Guthrie. But Britton is not a bad alternative to target. In fact, I had wanted Guthrie and a solid "A" ball pitcher from Baltimore for Hardy, so this would work for me to a "tee".

[Tbadder]

If I'm another team, I'm giving almost nothing. Let the Brewers suffer internally if they believe someone is going to give any thing near equal value.

But what if the other GMs main goal is to improve his team, and he needs a SS? Is it more important to put the screws to a team, or is it more important to fill your holes? The Orioles look to be pretty good in 2011, and would be better if they had Hardy.

Okay, point taken, and ultimately you may be right. But if I'm a truly successful GM, I'll go get what I need for cheaper than someone else who overpays. If a team's got a problem, you are duty bound to take advantage of them. And if the Brewers are stupid enough to trade Hardy over the off season, even though Escobar is the better player, then they deserve to be fleeced.

[Tbadder]

If I'm another team, I'm giving almost nothing. Let the Brewers suffer internally if they believe someone is going to give any thing near equal value. As soon as they promoted Escobar they screwed themselves, and now it's time to pay the piper. If they do get a good player in return I would suggest they got one from an incompetent GM.

 

Its the exact opposite, there would be a need to move Hardy before when he was gone after 2010, now there isn't. If tehy don't get a good offer they can send Escobar down and have him actually earn his way up. As for Anderson, the one thing the Brewers can draft are power hitting 1B. Why trade for one who might end up being a product of his A+ ball park when you can likely pull out a college slugger who will be better faster anyway?

This is as it should be. Next year Escobar shouldn't even sniff the majors until Hardy has regained his value in the marketplace. Melvin's got the chance to do something right, and if he opts to trade Hardy, then I don't believe they will have much in the way of long term chances. Hardy is one of the best SS in the major leagues who had a bad year. And if they jettison him for that bad year, well, I don't know. Then maybe the movie is right: "They Shoot Horses Don't They/"

[dadofandrew]

Hardy had a down year, but still has plenty of value, especially considering teams still trot guys like Betancourt, Punto, Cabrera, and the like out as an everyday SS. You can find plenty of guys just like JJ that have good career numbers, and took a dip in '09...that happens every season, take a look at career stats, and they are up and down. Cuddyer had a down '08, Hinske had a down '07, etc. Their value goes down a bit, but for the most part, they have enough of a track record to "lock in" a majority of their worth. Several GM's will even look to "buy low", as JJ will be cheaper than he was last year because of his down '09.

 

I don't see any way the Crew keeps the guy making $5-6M when it is apparent Escobar is ready. Alcides won't hit a whole lot, but he'll slap the ball around and hopefully, improve as the campaign goes on. If Counsell, or another veteran is around to pick up some starts versus tough RHP, it will help set him a bit for success as well.

[Hate those Rodents]

While it's nice to sell high on all our players, I disagree that our plan should be built around doing this at all costs. Sometimes you have to sell lower than you maybe would have a few months or a year earlier. Hopefully we don't have to do this often with most our players. But Hardy's time is done here if we can get a decent enough return and all parties involved are likely ready to move on. I agree Al, the difference between what we get for JJ this off-season vs. what we'd get for him, say at the deadline next year with him back to his career norm numbers would not be nearly as large as people think. His value won't be that low this off-season, nor would it be that high in the future if/when he rebounds.

[Never Outhustled]

Your anti-Escobar sentiment is getting kind of old. He's not exactly playing poorly in MLB right now, and I doubt was going to do much more in AAA. Hardy on the other hand, as pointed out, was terrible this year.

Hardy has been 1.3 WAR, Escobar has been below replacement level. He's been fun to watch defensively, but also sloppy and unproductive.

[logan82]

If you want to see something ugly, check Escobar's splits vs RHP and LHP. Link

[TheCrew07]

X what's the point in comparing WAR between Escobar and Hardy? Escobar has appeared in 23 games, Hardy 108... how about comparing Escobar's first 23 games with Hardy's first 23 games. I don't get how Escobar is expected to take a significant jump up in his career without facing MLB competition? What's point of continually getting better and tearing up AAA like Nelson Cruz only to struggle in limited MLB action? I don't buy this "earn his way up" stuff either... he's not going to hit for power, he may never hit for power, how's he going to OPS over .800 until he develops significant power? He gets plenty of XBHs, he just doesn't walk enough or hit for power... and neither of those bother me as much as his RHP/LHP minor league splits do. I'm much more concerned that he figures out how to hit RHP than I am what his OPS is.