Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?

[endaround]

Just because the Twins asked for a better package from the Red Sox, doesn't mean it was offered. Teams trying to drive up the price, do that all the time. Boston had the incentive to pretend they were more interested than they were, since it would have driven the price up for the Yankees. If Boston really were willing to part with that package, why didn't the Twins take it?

 

If the Brewers are intent on getting blockbuster talent back, I would bet Prince stays a Brewer, possibly even leaving by FA after next year. Teams simply refuse to give up that much young talent. And the Tex trade was considered a dud for Atlanta and a warning to overanxious GMs.

 

For the same reason the Blue Jays didn't trade Halladay for the package that at least included Bucholz plus, because they overplayed their hand. The Twins screwed that up greatly.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Exactly, the Twins overplayed their hand. Those Santana negotiations went on for months and the teams had standing offers sitting out there forever so they pulled them back. Even if one were to believe that the best offer for Santana was from the Mets it is still not a good comp because of the no-trade and a demand for a new contract.

 

I believe that a better comp for a Prince trade would be the Bedard deal. Bedard had 2 years left and does not have a no trade. Bédard was traded to the Seattle Mariners in a 5 for 1 deal sending outfielder Adam Jones and pitchers George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman and Kameron Mickolio to the Orioles. I am not saying that the package will turn out the same way but it least it matches up closer, a near Cy Young winner vs. a near MVP.

 

We all agree that Prince has as much value as Holliday. Holliday for a half season was worth Brett Wallace so Prince for 4 halves of a season is equal to 4 Brett Wallace's.

 

 

 

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[PilprinBuddha]

I'm sorry....I can't get my mind around a realistic scenario to trade Prince.

[interestobserver]

Why are the Bedard and Tex trades a realistic comp since they are widely regarded as a bad move?

 

However, Santana, Halladay, or Cliff Lee are not realistic comps? If the thinking is those teams overplayed they're hands, then aren't the Brewers risking a lot by asking for too much? Unless they want the draft picks. Even use the CC trade. LaPorta was the premium choice there. Ike Davis outproduced LaPorta last year despite being over two years younger.

[Invader3K]

Again, you're comparing one season or half season rentals to a position player with two years of team control left. The payoff for trading Fielder at this point should be much higher...otherwise Melvin will just hold onto him, pay him his relatively affordable salary next season, and possibly trade him before the deadline to some team in need of a quality power hitter (if the Brewers are out of contention next July). They can again STILL look at trading him next winter. Granted, they won't get as much for him by then, but they can still get one or two good players. Or just hold onto him, let him leave after 2011 when he inevitably doesn't re-sign, and take the compensation picks. There is barely any downside for the Brewers here, which is why they are going to demand a lot in any realistic trade scenario.

 

To be blunt, I think that reasoning is why they will more than likely hold onto him this winter...you can't get enough from any team, realistically, that makes it worth trading him at this point. The production he will give the Brewers next season probably outweighs what they will get from any collection of trade candidates. He's that good.

[interestobserver]

While I do think the best move is to hold onto him, Lee, and Halladay had basically 1.5 seasons in them. If they hold onto him past this trade deadline, his value drops quite a bit. Next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Howard hit the market. They're the same type of player and supply always drives down price.

[Hate those Rodents]

The point more or less is that your Mets proposal is the type of deal we could easily get the following off-season. There is no reason to take that type of offer when we can use him next season and get the same exact type of deal a year from now.

[homer]

I heard a rumor from a guy with connections to the Brewers involving Fielder and King Felix. Obviously there'd be other players involved but those were the two names mentioned.

[Invader3K]

I think you'd have to look at something like that if the Brewers don't have to give up too much else.

[endaround]

And I see no reason why the Mariners do that. Yeah they need offense., but one good thing about running Griffey out there is that its easy to improve upon his numbers for free. Unless its like Fielder and Gamel for Hernandez but losing Hernandez would really hurt the Mariners for the next two years which makes trading for Fielder useless.

[Hate those Rodents]

Does anyone have any clue about the chances Felix would resign. I know that's a long ways off from predicting, being that he's not on our team and doesn't even know how he'd like Milwaukee. But if we made him a CC type offer, would he accept it or do all signs point to him only signing a ridiculous contract with a New York or a Boston?

[ILuvDaBush]

If we give up Fielder for the King, I would assume we would have a deal in place for at least 5 years (which I would be wholeheartedly behind). And then, hopefully, we'd have a 5 year deal in hand for YoGa. We'd be wholly committed to two aces and one of the best hitters in baseball. But that, as I continue to say, is really the only realistic chance of trading Fielder for me.

[interestobserver]

It would take more than Fielder to land Felix.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers are currently 4th in runs scored in the NL (though they could still finish as low as 6th) and 15th in runs allowed. If they trade a guy in Fielder who's driven in 138 and scored 101, at best they will drop to 8th or 9th in runs scored next year. To reach the playoffs, a team that is that low ranked in runs scored needs a top 1 or 2 or at the outside 3rd ranked pitching staff. There is nobody that Fielder would bring back that takes the staff from 15th to top 2 or 3. There are other means to get the staff to a middle of the pack ranking, which could be good enough if they moved up to top 3 in runs scored. They need to look for improvement both in pitching and hitting and trading the best hitter isn't going to do it. Trading Fielder sacrifices their chances for 2010 and 2011, and wastes 2 years of Braun's prime as well with no guaranty that the return for Fielder significantly improves their chances beyond 2011.

[sbrylski]

Prince Fielder was worth about 50 batting runs above replacement level this season. Even if we replace him with Brad Nelson, we only drop to 8th or 9th. There are free agents or (Mat Gamel) that would cut the loss in offense in half, resulting in us falling only to 5th or 6th.

 

Overall, Felix and Price were both worth about 62 runs above replacement this season, and mid-6 win players. Given that we've basically been marching out replacement level players in one of our rotation spots this season, we'd probably see a gain of most of that 62 runs. Straight up, it would actually be a rather even trade I think, and would balance out our team. We might have to kick in an extra prospect or something, but coupled with a free agent signing (or just playing Mat Gamel at first), our team would improve by probably around 3 wins.

[The Big Cheese]

I'm sure all the Billy Beane disciples on here will flame this post to oblivion I too find no good reason to move Fielder. He is making a case as the greatest power hitter in franchise history. If the Phillies can sign Ryan Howard long term why can't we? Give him the money we were prepared to offer Sabathia and make him and Braun the new Yount & Molitor. Develop Arnett and the young arms and take your chances.

[TheCrew07]

We can afford Fielder but then the Brewers have to stop paying for Pitching on the FA market. No more wasting money on the bull pen or Looper/Suppan acquisitions. The Brewers can afford around a 90 million dollar payroll, paying fielder 20 mil per season leaves 70 million for the rest of roster, subtract Braun's salary each year and we have even less. It would mean disciplined spending on the core talent and that's about it.

[Never Outhustled]

We can afford Fielder but then the Brewers have to stop paying for Pitching on the FA market. No more wasting money on the bull pen or Looper/Suppan acquisitions.

OK, you've talked me into to it.

[kramnoj]

I'm sure all the Billy Beane disciples on here will flame this post to oblivion I too find no good reason to move Fielder.

 

How have you convinced yourself that "Billy Bean disciples" want to flame your point? It's fairly simple. If Prince dedicates himself and is the player that he was in 2007 and 2009, he is worth being signed. If he lets himself slip into 2008, he's not. The biggest risk of course is how driven Prince will be once he has a long term deal. Personally, I think his competitve drive will continue to motivate him, but it is certainly a huge risk.

[TooLiveBrew]

The fact that Fielder can get bigger & better sponsorship opportunities in NY/BOS/LA/etc. plays a huge role in whether or not he'd re-sign with the Brewers. Even if Milwaukee offered comparable money, he'd still probably be able to make more in a bigger market.

 

Plus, this is a Boras client we're talking about here... he's going to hit free agency.

[Weirdos19]

If you can get an ace, you have to make a deal. But the list of pitchers is short. Remember, we have higher than replacement hitters (Gamel) that can play first now. We don't have replacement pitchers on hand. We tried that this year. It didn't work well.

 

Pitchers that we wouldn't have to sign to an extension before a deal: Cain, Lincecum, Felix, Lester, Peavy, Kershaw, Hanson, J Johnson, Grienke.

 

Extension must be signed before deal: Halladay

[Invader3K]

The fact that Fielder can get bigger & better sponsorship opportunities in NY/BOS/LA/etc. plays a huge role in whether or not he'd re-sign with the Brewers. Even if Milwaukee offered comparable money, he'd still probably be able to make more in a bigger market.

 

Plus, this is a Boras client we're talking about here... he's going to hit free agency.

I agree with you that he's a Boras client, and Satan won't allow him to resign with the Brewers before reaching free agency. The only thing that could remotely change that is if Boras senses there could be a work stoppage in the next couple seasons (current CBA ends after 2011, I think). Maybe that would give him incentive to have Fielder sign a somewhat short term extension.

 

As far as endorsements, he did have a fairly high profile deal with that Bigs video game this year. I guess I've never understood why a Brewers player couldn't get bigger endorsement deals. I think it comes down to the fact that it's been many years since we've had anyone as high profile and good as the likes of Braun and Fielder.

[endaround]

Its local endorsement deals. Brewers get Time Warner Milwaukee (and the Time Warner curse!) cable deals that pay maybe 5 figures plus free cable. Same type of deal in New York would be at least 6 figures if not 7. Plus a bunch of corporate appearance opportunities for like $50,000.

[sveumrules]

unless you can get two top arms which you control for a long time (think kershaw & martin from LAD for instance) for fielder i think at this point we're best served taking two years of elite production and then the picks. multiple young high upside pitchers is the only way we can get fair value in return and with the premium placed on these types of players i just don't see a deal coming together.

[JohnBriggs12]

sveurules has it right. It comes down to the fact that whatever a team would offer for Fielder, it won't be enough to offset the loss of the the NL's 2nd best hitter for the next 2 years. If the Brewers had a replacement ready that was likely to come close to Fielder's production (and nobody in the franchise history has), then they could entertain a deal. Had Fielder's numbers been more like his 2008 numbers, it would be much more realistic to think they could come close to replacing him. But he's clearly upped his game to near Pujols-like status and there's no way Gamel or anyone else on the horizon is ready to do that. The good news it that they have Prince for 2 more seasons, and that will give young hitters and pitchers in their system more time to develop so that by the time he does depart, they will have an influx of ready talent to help offset his loss.