Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?

[sbrylski]

I would be down with that Texas trade proposal. I like Smoak a lot, and Holland as well.

[splitterpfj]

Like it or not, I can't see the Brewers trading Fielder for three prospects this off-season. Prince is coming off a great year, the team doesn't have to move him, and Mr Attanasio will want to keep the turnstiles spinning.

 

In my opinion, if Prince goes, there's a marquee arm coming back...which makes it tough to find a match. It's got to be someone you can sell...someone with good numbers in 2009, or at least someone who's had a ton of media hype. I would imagine most of these guys would be impossible to get, and some of them aren't even practical in the first place, so my bet is that Prince stays.

 

Tim Lincecum

Zack Greinke

Dan Haren

Felix Hernandez

Josh Johnson

Justin Verlander

Adam Wainwright

Jon Lester

Matt Cain

Ubaldo Jimenez

Clayton Kershaw

Chad Billingsley

 

I won't include Roy Halladay, because I think Toronto will look for multiple prospects for him at this point - they won't be seen as 2010 contenders - no matter what spin they put on things.

[Mr Southpaw]

If Prince is traded and with man other capable infielders, what do you think of this lineup?

 

Vs Righties

 

2B Lopez L

1B Weeks R

3B Gamel L

LF Braun R

RF Catalanotto L

SS Counsell L

CF Gerut L

C Rivera R

Pitcher

 

Vs Lefties

 

2B Lopez R

1B Weeks R

3B McGahee R

LF Braun R

RF Hart R

SS Escobar R

CF Kapler R

C Rivera R

Pitcher

 

I think if he is traded Lopez is a must sign. We have been screaming for a leadoff hitter for years. Weeks would probably do well at first. The rookies would not have the pressure of playing everyday, even though Gamel and Escobar would need to be played more than a true platoon situation. I would love to have Gabe K back in a Brewer uniform.

 

If we have to lose Prince, I think this lineup can hit 160ish home runs and be adaquate with the pitching that Fielder and Hardy will return.

[Baldkin]

The ticket sales hit is already going to happen next year.

 

Even if they do contend, I doubt the Brewers will draw 3 million fans again next year. After a season like this one, early season sales are bound to be way down. So trading Prince to retool for 2011-2015 instead of feebly attempting to reload the musket for 2010 is the way to go.

 

If they think they can compete in 2010, they don't trade Prince. His value for contract dollar is enormous.

[logan82]

It wouldn't take much for us to be contenders in 2010. Some better pitching depth and that's about it. Trading Prince would put an end to that. Trading Fielder would probably help us in 2011+.

[Invader3K]

They're not going to trade Fielder and basically blow up their offense for next season. Attanasio was pretty adamant about that last week. Fielder is going to be the Brewers starting 1B next season.

[Hart Of Milwaukee]

Prince for Felix Hernandez would probably make the most sense. Jack Z and Melvin obviously have a good relationship and they are looking for some meat behind Ichiro. Im not sure if I would want it, but this would seem most likely. Not sure if their fa years are lined up, so if Felix is done a yr early it would probably take another prospect like Aumont to get the deal done. If they do pull the trigger on this I would want holes like Kendall and Hardy replaced, because a line-up without Fielder could not afford so many automatic outs.

[Hate those Rodents]

I'd rather not make the playoffs with Prince than not make the playoffs with Felix. My point is that I am not really for a Prince trade that doesn't bring us back multiple players/near ready prospects that can help us the next few/several years.

[Invader3K]

Don Walker has a new article up on the Journal Sentinel where Mark Attanasio acknowledges that trading Prince may be a possibility.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/61948787.html

[interestobserver]

Right, that's the thing. Fielder is worth about four to five very good AAA level players at this point. It's just hard to imagine any team being willing to give up that much for one player. That's the kind of deal Melvin has to demand though. If teams just want to trade one pitcher (no matter how good) and maybe one throw in guy, he needs to hang up the phone.

 

Edit: Just read this on MLB Trade Rumors and had to share. From a Red Sox fan (of course): "What if we let Bay walk and trade for Braun instead?"

 

They really have no clue out there, do they? They seem to just think almost all of MLB is one big feeder system for them and the Yankees. It makes me sick.

 

No player in baseball is worth four to five very good AAA players, especially one with two years left on his contract.

 

When evaluating trades, it is better to use value at the time, not what panned out. For Texaiara, the Braves overpaid, but those guys also all developed making the trade lopsided. Tex was also gold glove caliber fielding.

 

As for Santana, the Mets gave up two B+ prospects, one of whom was in A ball. One guy who was improving in Mulvey, and one guy who looked slated for middle relief before his arm blew out. That was favorable to the Mets, even at the time.

 

The economic realities today are that teams shopping a player for salary reasons won't get the return that is expected.

 

For the Mets, I could see an offer of:

 

Dan Murphy - He's played a season at first. After a slow start, he's had a decent second half. He's only 24 and should improve. He can either go direct, or be cashed into a third team for a prospect.

 

Ike Davis - He's really coming on and he's either the Mets best or second best prospect. He did very well in AA, and has a great glove. He'd be able to take first, by mid season at the latest. Earlier if they don't mind starting his arby clock.

 

Choice of any two prospects not named Fernando, Holt, Flores, or Mejia.

 

Familia, Thole, or Tejada would be the next three.

[Hate those Rodents]

The Mets would certainly be welcome to make such an offer. And Doug would certainly take the initiative of hanging up the phone in a hysterical laughter.

[yoshii8]

If that is all the Mets would give up for Fielder than I'm 99.9% sure that the Mets will not be getting him. The only reason the Brewers would trade Fielder is to get top shelf starting pitching.

[Invader3K]

Maybe four to five players is a stretch, but you can't trade Fielder for just one very good young pitcher and another throw in prospect. That's what a lot of fans from other teams seem to be suggesting.

 

I'm not sure about Murphy from the Mets. A lot of people seem to think he's terrible. I'll admit I haven't seen enough of him to make a judgement one way or another.

 

Also, the Brewers aren't "shopping Fielder for salary reasons." They're shopping him (possibly) because they know they won't be able to retain him after 2011. They don't need to dump his salary for next season of 2011, either.

[interestobserver]

And what would you say would be a fair offer?

 

Keep in mind that the offer I described is higher than what they gave for Santana, even taking into account value at the time. Fielder's current salary, more importantly his future salary, and the tendency for portly one dimensional slugger's to age portly, even if they do that one thing very well.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Murphy is terrible. I guarantee he wont be the centerpiece of any Fielder deal.

[trwi7]

Keep in mind that the offer I described is higher than what they gave for Santana

So because the Twins made a terrible trade that means we should too for the sole reason of helping out the Mets?

[interestobserver]

Ike Davis would be the centerpiece in that deal. He can either play first, which he does very well, or right, which he does even better. He hit in the mid 90's when he pitched, so he's got a great arm. He had better stats than Smoak and Freeman this year and he should be ranked pretty decently when the new lists come out.

 

Murphy would be an additional player. And he isn't terrible. He plays a decent first base and should ops about 800 next year. Maybe more if the Brewers play in a hitter's park.

 

And the Santana deal is a benchmark for these types of transactions. Every team will point to that deal. Texaiara is the exception these days, and even that looks better in retrospect. Cliff Lee is another. He was coming off a Cy Young season, and had almost two years at the time of trading. Halladay didn't move because no one would ante up. Show me a recent deal where a guy brought back a huge haul when he was short. Young, good prospects are the most valuable commoditiy in baseball.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Ike Davis is not even close to a centerpoiece player to acquire Fielder. Murphy plays an awful first base and has no power. As trwi said just because the Twins gave Santana away for garbage doesnt mean we are trading Fielder for scraps. Sorry but the Mets do not have the prospects necessary to get Fielder.

[JohnBriggs12]

The value of Fielder isn't going to based on prior deals. It's going to be based on supply and demand at any given time and that's why the Brewers are better off hanging on to him for now despite what Attanasio thinks.

 

As good as Fielder is, he's a first baseman and/or a DH and there's a lot of good hitters that occupy roster spots for the limited amount of teams that could afford Fielder beyond 2011.

 

Ike Davis appears to be a very good prospect, and it's understandable that a team like the Mets would rather make a big splash with a proven commodity like Fielder than go with the prospect. But if they are willing to do that deal now, they'd be willing to do that deal 12 months from now too as Davis will still essentially be a prospect and Fielder will likely have had another monster season under his belt.

 

So if Davis is a guy the Brewers covet to replace Fielder, do the deal after next season. You'd get another year out of Fielder and have Davis closer to being able to be his replacement.

[brosto1]

I would consider Prince to have a lot more value than Holliday. That is the most recent comparable hitter to get dealt. Carlos Gonzalez was a better prospect than Ike Davis and plays a premium position. The Rockies also got Huston Street and Greg Smith. Street's value is much higher this year but he still had good value last year. Smith was a young starting pitcher who was coming off a decent rookie season at the age of 24.

 

Then this summer for a rental of Holliday for three months, the Cards gave up Wallace who I also would rate higher than Ike Davis. The A's also received Clayton Mortensen who was the 36th pick in the 2007 draft and spent most of this year at AAA. Shane Peterson was the Cards' second round pick in 2008 and was promoted to AA this year after having a nice start to the year for Palm Beach in the pitcher friendly Florida State League.

[interestobserver]

It could happen that way. Although the value of prospects changes dramatically. And Fielder gets more expensive. I think at that point, the Mets would rather not pay Fielder as he enters his FA years and Davis would have half a season or more of major league experience.

 

Between now and the trading deadline, Fielder's value should remain relatively constant. After that, it takes a hit. Show me the team that needs a first baseman that also has the money. The Yankees usually drive up the price, but they're out of the market. Boston, maybe.

 

And I'm not so sure those guys would rate higher than Davis. The next time prospect lists come out, he'll post a major jump. His ops at AA was 950 and kept climbing as the year went on. 1050 post all star break. He followed that with a very good performance in the world cup. And he's smooth with the glove.

[Invader3K]

You can't compare trading an MVP caliber position player with two years of control for some of these recent pitcher rental trades (it's not just here, I see it all over different forums). It doesn't make sense.

 

I have no doubt that if Fielder does get traded, it's going to be an absolute blockbuster type deal, despite what fans of other teams think. He would probably be the most valuable position player on the trade market this winter. Melvin isn't going to give him away.

[Menace II Sobriety]

First of all, the Santana trade is a horrible basis for this conversation, Santana had a no trade clause and demanded a new contract, this limited him to 3 teams being in the bidding (Mets, Yankees, Red Sox). As most of us are aware the trade offer from the Mets was the worst one on the board but the Twins overplayed their hand. By the time the deal was done the other 2 teams had either dropped out of the bidding altogether or significantly reduced their offers.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.../12/latest-johan--2.html

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has the latest buzz surrounding the Johan Santana trade talks.

The Red Sox and Twins talked yesterday, and the Twins are leading toward Jacoby Ellsbury rather than Jon Lester. Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson would also be included, and the sides are trying to figure out a fourth player.

 

 

That is a lot nicer package than the one that the Twins actually received.

 

Fans of other teams are undervaluing Prince. Below are Prince's #'s for the past 3 years vs. Manny Ramirez for 4 years including the 2 years that the Red Sox won the World Series. Ask a Sawx fan how much value Manny had after they won that first championship and that is how much value Prince has now. Even though people see his stat line through fantasy baseball they still don't understand the true value of Prince because they don't see him play on a daily or a weekly basis. I assume this is why we are still hearing about how bad Prince's defense is even though anyone who has watched the games knows this is false.

 

I used Ramirez as a reference because it matches up with perceptions of offense first players whose D is a liability.

 

R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS

 

2007	MIL	158	573	109	165	354	35	2	50	119	90			2		.288	.395	.618	1.013		1	158
2008	MIL	159	588	86	162	298	30	2	34	102	84			3		.276	.372	.507	.879		1	158
2009	MIL	156	569	99	169	339	35	3	43	137	102			2		.297	.406	.596	1.002

 

2004	BOS	152	568	108	175	348	44	0	43	130	82			2		.308	.397	.613	1.009		1	111
2005	BOS	152	554	112	162	329	30	1	45	144	80			1		.292	.388	. .594	.982		1	111
2006	BOS	130	449	79	144	278	27	1	35	102	100			0		.321	.439	.619	1.058		1	111
2007	BOS	133	483	84	143	238	33	1	20	88	71			0		.296	.388	.493	.881

[interestobserver]

Just because the Twins asked for a better package from the Red Sox, doesn't mean it was offered. Teams trying to drive up the price, do that all the time. Boston had the incentive to pretend they were more interested than they were, since it would have driven the price up for the Yankees. If Boston really were willing to part with that package, why didn't the Twins take it?

 

If the Brewers are intent on getting blockbuster talent back, I would bet Prince stays a Brewer, possibly even leaving by FA after next year. Teams simply refuse to give up that much young talent. And the Tex trade was considered a dud for Atlanta and a warning to overanxious GMs.

[Invader3K]

possibly even leaving by FA after next year.

 

He's under team control for two more years. It's been a common misconception that they only have him for one more year.