Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?

[804Sox]

You Sox blinders are showing, big time.

 

Fielder is worth more than Halladay. Halladay would have been a one and a half year "rental" if traded before the deadline this summer...Fielder would be under control for two years. How can you say a 40 HR/.300 AVG guy who plays every day isn't worth more than a pitcher who pitches once every five days? Especially one who is already in his early 30's.

 

I don't buy it. Fielder will be a decent (not great, but not a liability) 1B defensively for at least a couple more years, probably well beyond that. People overstate the weight issue by a lot. If Fielder keeps doing what he is now, fitness-wise, it won't even be an issue for several more years. He's only 25, not over 30.

 

He's worth three to four very good young players. If no team is willing to give up a package like that, he won't be traded. The Brewers can just as easily hold onto him through 2011, and either trade him at the deadline (and probably still get something decent for him), or take a couple high compensatory draft picks. They don't have to trade him...it's arguable they shouldn't, because of the offense he brings to the Brewers right now. So I agree with the last part of your statement there.

I disagree with several of your claims, in addition to that about my "Sox blinders" showing - I'm sure there's no pro-Brewer group-think going on around here that would inflate the percieved values of certain players - but I digress . . .

 

1) Halladay would have been a one and a half year "rental" if traded before the deadline this summer...Fielder would be under control for two years

I think that given the Sox financial situation, if either are acquired it would not be as a rental, and neither would be acquired if the Sox didn't intend to sign them to a long-term deal. As such, years of control are not as much of an issue because the Sox are in the embarassingly fortunate position of being one of the few teams with the financial resources to essentially control players as long as they choose to. This has been theo's MO regarding trades for veterans. He locked up Beckett, Crisp (for what it's worth), and offered Bay a huge extension earlier this season. Theo doesn't trade big chips for rentals.

 

2) How can you say a 40 HR/.300 AVG guy who plays every day isn't worth more than a pitcher who pitches once every five days? Especially one who is already in his early 30's

The classic starting pitcer vs. everyday position player argument. Honestly there's no correct answer, which is why I said it was my opinion that Halladay was more valuable. However, It's my opinion that a starting pitcher can control a single game, and even win a game "by himself" in a way that a position player can't. Halladay fits this bill more than most pitchers given how deep he goes in games and the efficiency with which he pitches. He has a very positive impact on a bullpen. Of course he can only go once every 4 or 5 games, but in the playoffs that becomes once every three. Regaring age, becasue Halladay is not a "power pitcher," I think he'll age pretty well. I think he has 3 or 4 more really good seasons. Certainly Fielder looks like he'll be better for a longer time, but he's limited to 1B or DH, for which it's easy enough to find a player hitting .270 with 30HR in free agency. Ace starters seldom hit FA, which is why they must be traded for unless you want to fill out the rotation by signing Carlos Silva's and Suppan's for 30-40 mil.

 

3) I'll keep this one short. Fielder would have to be a DH for the Sox because Youkilis and Victor Martinez are at 1B. Youkilis can play 3B now, giving them some flexibility, but he barely has the range now to play it well, and will not be a serviceable 3B for much longer. With Youkilis at 1B; Martinez needing somewhere to play when he's not catching; Bay a sub-par fielder in LF, that, if re-signed, would likely need to move to DH in the near future; and Lars on the horizon, I don't really see how adding Fielder to THAT mix would add more value to the Sox than Halladay

 

4) He's worth three to four very good young players. If no team is willing to give up a package like that, he won't be traded. The Brewers can just as easily hold onto him through 2011, and either trade him at the deadline (and probably still get something decent for him), or take a couple high compensatory draft picks. They don't have to trade him...it's arguable they shouldn't, because of the offense he brings to the Brewers right now.

This is 100% correct

[804Sox]

Here is validation that we are pretty accurate on Fielder's value as opposed to our resident Sox fan with whom I certainly do enjoy reading his opinons on.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/olney-on-red-sox-fielder-cain.html

 

If Boston would throw a huge package for 1.5 years of Halladay, they'd certainly throw the same package at the Giants for 2.5 years of Cain. So if anything, we should demand more than whatever was offered for Roy (in a round about way of speaking or in a value sense).

Soooo, since the Washington Nationals beat the Phillies last year, they're pretty much the REAL WS champs, right? See the problem with that sort of logic . . . ?

 

I'm going to recycle some points from my previous post, so sorry in advance.

 

1) Cain is nowhere near as good as Halladay, or even as good as Cain was several years ago. His stuff is much worse and his peripherals had been trending in that direction until this year. He's a really good pitcher, but I don't really trust him. he's young, and should be around for a long time, but he's done getting better too.

 

2) contract duration/control isn't an issue. Theo has only made big trades for players that he intended to hold on to long term.

 

3) The Halladay trade would have been within the division, so the Jays were no doubt asking for more from the Red Sox than, for example, the Brewers or Phillies.

 

4) and this is the most important point. NO TEAM GAVE THE JAYS WHAT THEY WERE ASKING FOR for Roy Halladay, so that package can't be used as a baseline for . . . anything. Star players don't return as much value as you would expect. the one exception to this in recent years is the Braves trade for Texeira, but that was recognized at the time as an unforgivable fleecing.

[Hate those Rodents]

It might be reaching by the dots I connect, but my point is basically easy to understand.

 

If F=C and C=H, then F=H (which means Fielder could certainly command the plethora of talented prospects that Toronto foolishly turned down from numerous teams for Halladay.

[Invader3K]

In his latest Twitter updates, Haudricourt insinuates that Attanasio is not looking to have a major overhaul of the team this off-season. That probably means Fielder won't be traded.

[Hate those Rodents]

It makes sense that Mark A ponies up some dough for a Lackey/Escobar/Washburn pitcher and also that JJ nets us a Guthrie to help with the rotation. I am not sure what else needs to be done, other than players simply playing better and some more tweaks to make the roster/depth better in more minor facets. Next year's team should be able to hit and the bullpen should be strengthened by knocking two guys from this year's rotation back there.

[804Sox]

As someone that watches the O's quite a bit, I can tell you that Guthrie is not the answer. I'd target Arrietta in a deal with the O's

[yoshii8]

It makes sense that Mark A ponies up some dough for a Lackey/Escobar/Washburn pitcher and also that JJ nets us a Guthrie to help with the rotation. I am not sure what else needs to be done, other than players simply playing better and some more tweaks to make the roster/depth better in more minor facets. Next year's team should be able to hit and the bullpen should be strengthened by knocking two guys from this year's rotation back there.

I'm not sure how you can put Lackey/Escobar and Washburn in the same category. Kelvim Escobar, besides 5 innings this year, hasn't pitched since the 07' season, and might never be healthy again. Washburn hasn't been good up until this season, and has been absolutely terrible (7.33 era) since being traded to Detroit. IMO Lackey is head and shoulders above either one of these guys and will demand a lot of money.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, Lackey is clearly the best pitcher going on the FA market this off-season. I expect him to re-sign with the Angels or another big market team for a lot of money. We're not going to get him.

 

I wouldn't be interested in seeing Escobar or Washburn at all. They scream more "washed up" than "upside."

[Hate those Rodents]

Yeah, I know Lackey is the tops there. I guess I just think the other two "could" be top two of the rotation types for us for at least next year and figured it'd cost Mark A a sizable contract. My bad making it seem like they all were the same by jumbling them together.

 

I just think Mark A is going to spend big on a starting pitcher. Maybe it'll be by giving up little in talent but taking a lot in a traded contract (Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, etc.) But I think we end up with a #2 and a #3 starter that will improve our team (one via a JJ trade and the other via Mark A opening up his wallets considerably).

[Weirdos19]

I seem to think Prince will be in San Fran or Boston next year too. But, there are a few other teams that may have interest also. Here is a list of what I think the Crew could get from a number of teams.

 

1. San Francisco- Prince for Cain and Posey. Now I know the Brewers have talented catching in the minors, but teams will pony up multiple prospects at the chance to get a young catcher.

 

2. Boston- Prince for Bucholz, Bard, Bowden, and Delcarmen- Arms, arms, arms.

 

3. Tampa- Prince to Rays for Crawford and Price

 

4. Seattle- Not sure what could come back, but Jack Z will be interested.

 

5. Toronto- They have tons of young pitching and are trying to catch Boston and NY. They may overpay to keep Prince out of Boston.

 

Of course, he could end up in alot of places if teams are willing to include their current first baseman in a deal (Colorado, Atlanta, White Sox, Cincinnati). Gonna be a lot of talk on this board this winter.

[RockCoCougars]

As someone that watches the O's quite a bit, I can tell you that Guthrie is not the answer.

I agree, I've never understood why so many seem to target him here.

[Hate those Rodents]

Last year, Vazquez was not the answer on these boards either. The two previous years to this one, Guthrie would be the answer.

[RockCoCougars]

If this team is trading Prince, it had better be for a guy who can be a 1 or 1a to Gallardo in the rotation. Upside is not good enough (unless it comes with a good MLB proven bat). It is tough for any team to win in the playoffs, or even make the playoffs for that matter without at least 2 stoppers in the rotation. If no one is willing to part with these guys in a trade, you have to stand pat.

 

Though I don't think he's that good, Guthrie for Hardy would be fine with me given Hardy's diminished trade value. That said, he is at best a 3/4 starter on a good team. He'd be a minor upgrade to Parra, Suppan or Looper. Not sure of his contract situation, but if he's cheaper than Looper would be last year I would be fine with it I guess. I'd rather see a guy like Hudson come in as a #3, but with that a lot of things will have to fall in place, and the Brewer's luck is that they generally don't.

 

I still say that the team should do everything in it's power to kiss and make up with Sheets. He'd likely come on a short term deal for a decent price. He has to have some friends/backers on the team and the front office, doesn't he?

[TheCrew07]

If this team is trading Prince, it had better be for a guy who can be a 1 or 1a to Gallardo in the rotation. Upside is not good enough

You mean like a proven Ace type pitcher who's expensive and and on a short deal? If the Brewers could somehow pull David Price from TB, why would you not want that upside?

 

It would help if you could offer a name, and it better not be someone like Lincecum, because he's just not getting dealt. How exactly do the Brewers acquire cost effective pitching if they aren't trading for upside? In FA when was the last time a mid or small market team signed a true ace? It must have happened, I'm just drawing a blank... to me that's just not a realistic scenario for the Brewers. Nor do I want a Halladay type on a 1 year deal, he's a great pitcher, but I want longevity in addition to performance if I'm moving a player like Fielder, no more rental players please, we'll have even more holes in the rotation after 2010 to plug as Looper, Bush, and Suppan will all be gone. Who knows what we're going to get out of Parra which pretty much leaves Yo as the only sure thing we have going into 2011.

 

Butler, Rivas, and Rogers might all help internally by 2011, but it doesn't seem realistic to expect that, we should probably expect at least of those guys to struggle when they get called up. Scarpetta and Peralta might figure in the mix the following year, maybe a guy like Bowman becomes a solid mid 4 ERA type pitcher for the back of the rotation... I guess what I'm getting is that pitching is so flakey due to health that I'd rather have another very good 1/2 type pitcher for the rotation going into next season, I want 2 pitchers I can count on and I'm willing to take a risk with Parra and this tremendous pitching wave we have approaching Milwaukee going forward. Give me at least a solid 1/2 punch that's locked in for 3 years or so and I'll be estactic with a Melvin for a change.

 

If only Melvin was as good at finding starting pitchers as he is at finding position players like Pods and McGehee...

[nate82]

I think a Fielder for Smoak, Holland, and Perez would be a good Haul for Fielder.

 

Holland would be a 1 or 1a type of a pitcher Smoak has been compared to be like a Teixeira type and Perez would be a wild card in the mix. This would be close to what Texas got when they traded Teixeira away.

 

Info on Smoak, Holland, and Perez.

 

That might be asking to much for Fielder but it is rather close to what his value is.

[trwi7]

Can't see Texas trading pitching when they spent so much drafting and developing them.

[yoshii8]

I think a Fielder for Smoak, Holland, and Perez would be a good Haul for Fielder.

 

Holland would be a 1 or 1a type of a pitcher Smoak has been compared to be like a Teixeira type and Perez would be a wild card in the mix. This would be close to what Texas got when they traded Teixeira away.

 

Info on Smoak, Holland, and Perez.

 

That might be asking to much for Fielder but it is rather close to what his value is.

Can you imagine the fan reaction if Melvin made that trade? I don't think there is any way that Melvin would do that. Yes, they are all good prospects, but none have had big league success, and Fielder is one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

[RockCoCougars]

It would help if you could offer a name, and it better not be someone like Lincecum, because he's just not getting dealt.

I don't know.... Felix, Haren, Kershaw, Cain (maybe) would probably be about it. Greinke probably wouldn't happen. Probably none of these would.

 

I'm not trading Prince for David Price one on one that's for sure. The only time I'm trading Prince for 'upside' is the trading deadline in 2011 if he refuses a contract extension. Otherwise, you have to give to get.

 

I'd be interested in Halladay as well, but would do something with hitters/prospects for him. Perhaps centered around Lawrie and Hardy for example.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Can't see Texas trading pitching when they spent so much drafting and developing them.

 

Well, if there's a team know for trading away good young pitching they are the team. John Danks, Chris Young, Nick Masset, Armando Galaragga, Edinson Volquez

[pingman]

Texas has found the right formula by going with young, hungry talent.....IMHO the only pitcher they'd "want" to move would be Millwood, but he is owned about $15mm (?) for 2010 which is his contract year & he has a history of arm problems....

 

Can't see the Rangers making a blockbuster-type move....maybe your basic fringe moves but that's it

[NievesNoNO]

Let me preface by saying I don't want Fielder traded, but if it was a foregone conclusion that he'd have to be dealt then would the Dodgers have an interest? What about something like Loney, Russell Martin, James McDonald and Josh Lindblom. I don't know much about McDonald or Lindblom, just what I read off of somebody elses list. I really wanted to include Billingsly or Kershaw instead, but I doubt those two are going anywhere. Thoughts?

[ELCABALLO45]

I just thought about Prince hitting in Texas for 81 games a year entering his prime. Geez.

 

But anyways, we better be getting a big haul if we trade Prince. If we are listening to offers he is the best hitter out there. Don't settle for 2nd best DM, we dont have to trade him.

[ILuvDaBush]

Can Texas even take on Prince's salary next year? Wasn't that the major hitch in this season's trade deadline drama?

 

Nevertheless, I continue to say this. Prince for King Felix. Service time is comparable. Talent is comparable. Need on the other team is comparable. We all know that Jack and Doug wouldn't be averse to speaking. And with the Mariners' Japanese ties (and Prince's father's ties to the island nation, as well), it would be a financial coup for Seattle. And I can't imagine a rotation headed by Felix/YoGa having any rival. Furthermore, I would think King Felix would be more amenable to the type of extention we could afford, though I have also heard murmurs that Seattle is finding it difficult (the same was said of Greinke and we all know how that ended...). Now I am not advocating the sale of our best hitter, and I seriously want to keep him more than almost anything. But if given that regal deal, I would think we would have to accept. Then again, our offense could quickly devolve to SF Giant-like depths.

[piccione88]

If the Brewers trade Fielder it is because we will not be able to afford him beyond 2011. We would not be able to afford Felix Hernandez beyond 2011 either, so we have the same problem. Also the Brewers are not getting Hernandez for Fielder straight up anyway, the Mariners turned down a deal that would have sent Adrian Gonzalez, Bucholz, and Prospects for Hernandez, triunfel, and morrow, as well as a 5 for 1 swap from the Red Sox that would have let the Mariners pick from just about all of the sox top prospect's excluding Anderson, and Westmoreland. The bottom line is that Jack Z needs to be absolutley blown away in a deal to move Felix earlier than he has to, and 2 years of Fielder simply will not do it.

 

The Brewers need to be getting multiple players that will help us for many years, at dirt cheap prices, for Melvin to move him. Not pitchers who the Brewers will not be able to afford in a couple of years.

[Baldkin]

Well said, 88. If we're trading Prince, its hopefully not just for the betterment of the team in 2010. Its for the betterment of the team in 2011-2015.

 

The Texas deal would be a haul and a half for 2 years of Prince. I'd hope DM would do that in a heartbeat.

 

Smoak is the real deal, and he's going to be the next big thing.