Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?

[Hate those Rodents]

Am I the only one that would rather have Bowden over Bard? Color me unexcited about relievers as key cogs in a blockbuster deal. Nothing against Bard. He might well be a future allstar. I just think we should get starters and more starters first and foremost in addition to Lars Anderson. Plus, I think Bard, of all the collection of prospects Boston could hypothetically send us, represents the most value of any of them for a Boston World Series run next season. So, by being willing to keep him out of the deal, we might get Boston to offer us that much more when all is said and done.

[paul253]

Maybe if they let Bay walk they'd be willing to give up a little more to get Fielder. For one thing, they'd have a hole in their lineup to fill. Also, they'd have some more money available to sign Fielder to a long term deal. Trading for Braun though, after he just signed a VERY reasonable 8 year contract....that is funny.

 

I don't know, what do you think Boston would be willing to give up? You'd think it would start with Bucholtz and Anderson. After that, what do you think they'd give up? As much as fans from other teams like to bash Fielder for his weight, he is a top 5 hitter in all of baseball. Who wouldn't want him in their lineup?

[Hate those Rodents]

Not sure. What about Bucholtz, Bowden, Anderson, and Elsburry for Fielder and Hardy? That'd be pretty nice, but maybe too much?

[Never Outhustled]

Buchholz is 25, with a 1.40 WHIP, and just 6.2K/9. He's not great. Anderson is a 1B prospect coming off a full season with a 637 OPS. Niether is great. I don't see us getting a great player or prospect from Boston, they don't have any to deal.

[paul253]

Well i dont think you can expect more than one "great" player. I think 4 good to really good players is going to have to equal a Fielder. One of these players is not going to be as good as Fielder, so you have to judge the package as a whole as opposed looking at each player individually. Bucholtz is pitching in the AL and would probably be a step up over anything we have no other than Gallardo and he still has room to get better, which Suppan, Looper, and maybe even Bush don't have. Elsbury would be a great addition to the lineup. Anderson may have just had a down year and may bounce back. So if you can get Haragone or Bowden, its certainly something you have to consider.

[brewmann04]

i am not sure if we can trade Prince the lineup will have a hugh void.The Brewers will need two top front line starters.

[Hate those Rodents]

Tough to know. You bet it would hurt the lineup. But what if we hypothetically put Elbsberry, Weeks, and Anderson into the lineup next year and the lineup looks something like...

 

Elsberry, Escobar, Braun, Anderson, Weeks, McGehee/Gamel, Hart, Salome, Pitcher

 

You can move Anderson for maybe Casey or Corey or even put Braun there. Yeah, we lose big time at the cleanup spot but that's a pretty solid lineup. If you can get me Clay and Bowden as well, I am pretty tempted.

[Invader3K]

i am not sure if we can trade Prince the lineup will have a hugh void.

What does Hugh Hefner have to do with this?

 

But I digress...

 

You are right that trading Prince leaves a sizable gap in the lineup, and that is partly why I keep waffling on this issue. I hate the idea of trading him because of his potent offense, and part of me thinks Melvin should say "Damn conventions!" and keep him until free agency and take the draft picks. But that is probably not the smart move if we are to take lessons from this past June's draft, and also trades of Johan Santana and the like.

 

It really sucks that the Brewers' hand is being forced to do anything about this. I suppose if I was the Brewers GM, I would be incredibly blunt with Scott Boras and ask "What would it take to keep Prince beyond 2011?" Assuming then that Boras would stonewall or make some outrageous demand (I would be sure to leak all this to the media), I would trade Prince for the best available package, and then blast Boras indirectly in the media. But that's probably why I am not a baseball GM.

[trwi7]

Anderson? As in Lars Anderson? He would be terrible next year.

[Invader3K]

Well, he's only 22, but his stats look like garbage this season. Maybe Boston isn't the ideal trading partner.

[paul253]

You could stick Anderson in AA again and hope that halfway through the season he'd be ready to move up. He has had a terrible year, but based on what he's done it the past its hard to think he couldn't bounce back. Do all of us really think JJ Hardy is nothing better than a .230 hitter? We could maybe even use his bad year as leverage to getting more. At the very least it gives up an option for first base as early as 2011.

[BrewCrewForever]

If Prince goes to Boston the deal would have to start at Buchholz, Bard and Ellsbury. That is just the start.

[piccione88]

I was completley against the Brewers trading fielder this off-season, but the idea has grown on me a bit. The Brewers will be "under the gun" after the 2010 season to move him, with some nice first baseman hitting free agency. Carlos Pena, Lyle Overbay, and Derek Lee are all set to become free agents after 2010. Doug Melvin has to take into consideration how much that will affect Fielder's value after the 2010 season. With that said, in my opinion any deal Melvin accepts has to be substantially better than what he would expect to get after the 2010 season, to give up a year of Fielder, and basically any realistic shot at contention for 2010.

[Hate those Rodents]

I guess the five I'd demand are Bucholtz, Bard, Bowden, Elsberry, Anderson. If we need to sweeten one more guy along with Prince, I'd consider. I am not expecting as much for Hardy as some of you, so I'd even allow him to be the guy (or a prospect that likely has a major league future but that could be blocked).

[piccione88]

The Toronto Sun published an article by Bob Elliot, in it Elliot says that Theo Epstein offered the Jays Clay Bucholz, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront and Nick Hagadone I am not sure exactly how Fielder matches up with Roy Halladay in terms of trade value, but I would imagine the two are very close esspecially when you consider that Fielder has two years of service, and Halladay had 1.5 at the time of this trade offer.

 

If the Brewers could get that same deal this off-season, that would probably do it.

[trwi7]

If the Brewers could get that same deal this off-season, that would probably do it.

They couldn't. Hagadone and Masterson were traded to Cleveland.

[Hate those Rodents]

We could replace those two with DelCarmen and Anderson.

[piccione88]

They couldn't. Hagadone and Masterson were traded to Cleveland.

Sorry, I should have done a little research before posting that. Also Gammons, and Olney have said that the deal did not include Bard, or Doubront, but included Reddick.

[trwi7]

We could replace those two with DelCarmen and Anderson.

 

I'd rather have Hagadone and Masterson. Delcarmen and Anderson aren't appealing to me at all.

[crewcrazy]

I don't think the problem is that Boston doesn't have the prospects to do a deal; it's a matter of whether Theo Epstein would want to give up the necessary prospects to do so. Based on history, I don't think it's likely -- he reportedly could've had both Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee if he included Buchholz in a deal, but waffled and the Indians traded Lee to Philly instead.

 

Bard would be a really nice get as a potential future closer, but the problem may be that Boston doesn't even know what their long term plan is there. Papelbon is getting very expensive and hasn't shown a ton of loyalty, so there have been trade rumors swirling already. That would lead me to believe that they want to keep Bard around as the next Papelbon -- cheap, young flamethrowing closer -- in case they decide to trade Papelbon for someone desperate for a closer.

 

I'm personally holding out hope that Baltimore gets the courage to think they'll be the next version of the Rays in the next couple years and offer up one of their big pitching prospects and a collection of other young talent.

 

Speaking in more general terms, though, if Prince does get dealt, I don't think it'll be a huge Teixeira or Bedard type deal. The end result of that trade has scared a lot of teams away from putting together huge collections of top prospects, especially since we're in an era where teams are getting to be more reluctant to spend big in free agency. It's getting to the point where a lot of teams are incredibly overvaluing prospects they wouldn't have minded including in a trade a couple years ago (and probably wouldn't have missed too much post-trade).

[804Sox]

The Toronto Sun published an article by Bob Elliot, in it Elliot says that Theo Epstein offered the Jays Clay Bucholz, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront and Nick Hagadone I am not sure exactly how Fielder matches up with Roy Halladay in terms of trade value, but I would imagine the two are very close esspecially when you consider that Fielder has two years of service, and Halladay had 1.5 at the time of this trade offer.

 

If the Brewers could get that same deal this off-season, that would probably do it.

Just my opinion, but Fielder's value is nowhere near halladay's. At the deadline this year, Halladay was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. His performance has fallen off a bit, but he's still in the conversation. Fielder is a great hitter. Probably among the top 10 in baseball, but he's limited to 1B, and more likely DH down the road. 1B/DH types that are good hitters (although perhaps not as good as Fielder) are much easier to come by than Ace pitchers. That, among other reasons, is why so many on this board seem so willing to trade Fielder for pitching prospects. Elite starting pitching (and pitchers) win more games than a good hitter at 1B/DH.

 

If he's traded, I think you guys are going to be shocked by how little Fielder returns, and, accordingly, I think that if the Brewers don't need to trade Fielder this offseason for financial reasons, they shouldn't. I don't think he loses THAT much value over the next year. His contract's too long to be a short-term stopgap this offseason, and next offseason teams will trade for him so that they can lock him up a la Johan and Miggy Cabrera.

[Invader3K]

You Sox blinders are showing, big time.

 

Fielder is worth more than Halladay. Halladay would have been a one and a half year "rental" if traded before the deadline this summer...Fielder would be under control for two years. How can you say a 40 HR/.300 AVG guy who plays every day isn't worth more than a pitcher who pitches once every five days? Especially one who is already in his early 30's.

 

I don't buy it. Fielder will be a decent (not great, but not a liability) 1B defensively for at least a couple more years, probably well beyond that. People overstate the weight issue by a lot. If Fielder keeps doing what he is now, fitness-wise, it won't even be an issue for several more years. He's only 25, not over 30.

 

He's worth three to four very good young players. If no team is willing to give up a package like that, he won't be traded. The Brewers can just as easily hold onto him through 2011, and either trade him at the deadline (and probably still get something decent for him), or take a couple high compensatory draft picks. They don't have to trade him...it's arguable they shouldn't, because of the offense he brings to the Brewers right now. So I agree with the last part of your statement there.

[Hate those Rodents]

Here is validation that we are pretty accurate on Fielder's value as opposed to our resident Sox fan with whom I certainly do enjoy reading his opinons on.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/olney-on-red-sox-fielder-cain.html

 

If Boston would throw a huge package for 1.5 years of Halladay, they'd certainly throw the same package at the Giants for 2.5 years of Cain. So if anything, we should demand more than whatever was offered for Roy (in a round about way of speaking or in a value sense).

[crewcrazy]

I don't think we can look at the rumored Halladay offer and say that Fielder should get a better return than that. For one, if the offer was made, it's entirely possible that Theo Epstein thought he had to ridiculously overpay in an offer for Halladay due to J.P. Ricciardi's concerns about trading within the division. Also, while Fielder would be more valuable for a lot of teams, Boston needs another frontline starter more than they need Prince's offense, especially considering the disappointing season Dice-K has had.

 

I do generally agree that this offseason, Melvin should hold out for a ridiculous offer if he's going to move Prince at all, though. If the team is incredibly disappointing in the first half next year, maybe you consider moving him at the deadline, otherwise you hold off on seriously considering a trade until next offseason (especially if you can't get him to agree to another 2-year deal).

[Hate those Rodents]

I don't know. Obviously their big bopper in ManRam in long gone. But furthermore, Bay is up for free agency and might want to go back to the NL while Ortiz has sure struggled at least at times over the past year. I think Boston is lacking in a few areas as far as what they are missing to be an elite team again, but a dominant bat might be more needed by them this off-season than pitching.