Realistic trade scenarios involving Fielder?

[DannoMac21]

After reading this blurb in the MJS

 

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel - Brewers general manager Doug Melvin admitted recently that it would be hard to trade first baseman Prince Fielder.

 

"It would be very difficult to move a guy like Prince," Melvin told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "There will be a lot of talk. Teams that have top pitching, that's hard to give up. I've got one of the best hitters in the game and that's hard to give up."

 

Melvin could be faced with the decision sooner rather than later. Milwaukee is looking to add pitching, and could look to move Fielder before 2011.

 

What are some realistic scenarios for Fielder? Buccholz and Ellsbury?

[brewmann04]

They would have to get two starting Pitchers but what type of hole would that leave in the Batting order?

[804Sox]

That's probably fair value, but, in my opinion, it would be a lateral move for the Sox. Fielder's an elite hitter, but I don't see the Sox opening up holes at CF and in the rotation to get him. I think a more likely deal would probably be someting along the lines of:

 

Casey Kotchman (simply to replace Fielder in the short term)

Bowden or Tazawa (MLB ready #3/4 starter with #2 upside)

Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish or CH Lin (close to MLB ready "toolsy" OF)

Felix Doubront or Stolmy Pimentel (lower level pitchers with higher upside)

Fife or Weiland or Wilson (lower level college pitchers - could develop as starters but worst case are power arms out of the pen)

 

This would be a young, cost controlled MLB player, 3 prospects in the 3-10 range, and 1 in the 10-15 range. In theory this deal falls a little short of what Fielder should return in terms of prospect rankings, but I don't think Kelly and Westmoreland are available, as they were the only prospects off the table in the King Felix offer. After that, the argument could be made for Bowden, Reddick, Kalish, or Tazawa being the #3 prospect in the sox system, so being able to get 2 of those really isn't that bad. Lars Anderson is also a possibility in this trade, particularly given the development of Anthony Rizzo (or Rizzo could be traded), but I'd hate to see the Sox "sell low" on him after a down year.

[nate82]

That's probably fair value, but, in my opinion, it would be a lateral move for the Sox. Fielder's an elite hitter, but I don't see the Sox opening up holes at CF and in the rotation to get him. I think a more likely deal would probably be someting along the lines of:

 

Casey Kotchman (simply to replace Fielder in the short term)

Bowden or Tazawa (MLB ready #3/4 starter with #2 upside)

Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish or CH Lin (close to MLB ready "toolsy" OF)

Felix Doubront or Stolmy Pimentel (lower level pitchers with higher upside)

Fife or Weiland or Wilson (lower level college pitchers - could develop as starters but worst case are power arms out of the pen)

 

This would be a young, cost controlled MLB player, 3 prospects in the 3-10 range, and 1 in the 10-15 range. In theory this deal falls a little short of what Fielder should return in terms of prospect rankings, but I don't think Kelly and Westmoreland are available, as they were the only prospects off the table in the King Felix offer. After that, the argument could be made for Bowden, Reddick, Kalish, or Tazawa being the #3 prospect in the sox system, so being able to get 2 of those really isn't that bad. Lars Anderson is also a possibility in this trade, particularly given the development of Anthony Rizzo (or Rizzo could be traded), but I'd hate to see the Sox "sell low" on him after a down year.

Not going to happen. Realistic asking price from Melvin for Fielder would include: Lars Anderson, Bowden, Bard, and Buchholz. That is what it would take to get Fielder and that is close to what the Rangers got in return for Teixeira. Anything less and Melvin would hang up the phone. You could switch Anderson with Ellsbury but I don't see the reason why to do that for the Brewers with Shafer and Cain nearly ready.

 

In order to get Fielder the team trading for him is going to have to give up a future #1 starting pitcher, a high upside starting pitcher, and a positional player. Bowden = high upside starting pitcher, Buchholz = a #1 type of a pitcher even though I don't believe he is, and Anderson obviously = the position player.

[804Sox]

I think the best comparisons would be the A's acquisition of Matt Holliday, and the Mets' acquisition of Johan Santana. In both situations, the team was under the gun to trade their star player because they were not believed to be able to resign them after the season.

 

Holliday returned: Carlos Gonzales, Huston Street, and Greg Smith, but Fielder is better than Holliday (at least he's a better hitter)

 

Johan returned Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez, and Kevin Mulvey. Unfortunately, for the Twins, none of those players have really panned out, but we'll account for their perceived value at the time. Somewhat surprisingly, Fernandez was off the table (Mets#1 Prospect) given the bidding war for Santana, suggesting that the bidding teams still have considerable leverage when trying to acquire a player seeking a big payday.

 

I think the offer I proposed compares favorably to the Mets offer for Santana. Bowden and Tazawa are both more highly regarded than Mulvey was, and have higher upsides. Stolmy Pimentel doesn't have the upside that Guerra was perceived to have, but is closer to the majors at a young age and has legit #1/2 upside. Lars or Reddick is roughly equivalent to Carlos Gomez, and anything else the Sox through in (Kotchman, Fife, etc.) will amount to far more value than Humber provided.

[trwi7]

We have two years of control. If anything, getting him for two years should be a Teixeira type deal plus another prospect for another half year. The Holliday and Santana situations aren't comparable at all.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I don't get your "under the gun" assertion. Fielder should bring back a ton more than Holliday or Santana.

[nate82]

I think the best comparisons would be the A's acquisition of Matt Holliday, and the Mets' acquisition of Johan Santana. In both situations, the team was under the gun to trade their star player because they were not believed to be able to resign them after the season.

Well that would be all fine and dandy if that was actually the situation but it isn't. The Brewers won't be under the gun until after the 2010 season which is the year before Fielder's final year. Fielder has 1 more year of arbitration yet the Brewers control Fielder through 2011. Fielder doesn't hit free agency until after the 2011 season so the Brewers are not under the gun.

 

So there is no comparison at all.

[MNBrew]

...You could switch Anderson with Ellsbury but I don't see the reason why to do that for the Brewers with Shafer and Cain nearly ready.

Huh? Nearly ready? Hardly, let alone anything you can seriously count on for 2 years or more. Way too much time & ground still for them to cover. Besides, Cain topped out at AA and hit .214. Schafer hit .313 in high-A and .217 in a handful of AA games. Is that really "nearly ready?"

 

Fielder should net Ellsbury & Lester + another very seriously good nearly-MLB-ready pitcher (Bard?). Add Hardy to the deal and you can add Buchholz, too. Anything less is seriously underselling. If I'm Melvin, I'd take Lowell back in the deal, too, if Boston would take Suppan.

 

...And playing out some of the ramifications of that trade, at worst, 1B costs Lowell's salary (offset of Fielder's). Or, with someone young (McGehee or Gamel, for instance), it's a huge savings. Ellsbury is much cheaper than Cameron. Lester is much cheaper than Suppan. So not only does good talent come back, but there's a lot more cash left to make more deals with (Vazquez, anyone?).

 

The Santana deal isn't exactly a great comparison. First, none of those Mets scrubs were A+ prospects. But it was the best deal the Twins could get because everyone knew that they kinda had to trade Santana. Second, that deal was made in the winter. Melvin has stated so many times that you get more for pitching during the season, more for hitting in the off-season. The Santana deal conveniently underscores that.

[804Sox]

Didn't realize Fielder was under control through '11. Looking at Cot's I assumed that they bought out his last 2 years of arb, not the first.

 

In any case, if, for financial purposes, the Brewers don't need to trade Fielder, then they probably shouldn't. What the trades of other superstars over the past 5 years demonstrate is that you will NEVER get back full value (unless the players you get in return significantly outplay expectations) for these players for 2 reasons.

 

1) Even the best prospects have a very slim chance of becoming superstars, so if you are trading away a superstar the best you can really hope for is a volume of good players with a few that could potentially be stars.

 

2) Once you start down the path of shopping a star player the team is more or less committed to moving them, giving the teams looking to acquire this player leverage in negotiations. Usually it's the case that the best offer wins the prize, not one that meets a team's initial demands/expectations. The bidding teams are only competing against eachother, not some ideal offer. If, as with the Halladay "sweepstakes", the team ends up holding on to their star player, the bidding teams still know that it's only a matter of time till he's back on the market, and the price-tag will only go down.

 

A couple other points:

1) re: Lester - He's not going anywhere. Probably the best LH pitcher in the AL right now (either him or Sabathia, who is a horse). He's young, cheap(ish for now) and has come up big in pressure situations/the playoffs repeatedly. I think he alone has more value than Fielder but that's really a moot point.

2) re: Johan - Santana was unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball at the time he was traded. Fielder is neither the best nor most valuable 1B, particularly given his defensive deficiencies and long-term prospects. Aside from the extra year of control for Fielder which I neglected, i don't see how, all else equal, you could expect a greater return for Fielder.

[nate82]

Huh? Nearly ready? Hardly, let alone anything you can seriously count on for 2 years or more. Way too much time & ground still for them to cover. Besides, Cain topped out at AA and hit .214. Schafer hit .313 in high-A and .217 in a handful of AA games. Is that really "nearly ready?"

Nearly ready = 2-3 years and by 2011 Cain will be the starting CF for the Brewers. If Cain wouldn't have been injured earlier in the year he would be more than likely the starting CF in 2010. You don't need a lot of production out of your CF player that is why others want Gerut to be the starting CF next year over Cameron. Along with the cost savings it also has. Schafer also had an OPS of .815 last year Cain had an OPS of .845 in AA last year.

 

Cain went from A+ to AAA in 2008. The Brewers love this guy and it is not unreasonable to believe or think that if Cain didn't get injured this year he would be at least in the running for the starting CF job in 2010 for the Brewers. With his injury it has probably been delayed until 2011. Schafer should be ready by 2012 or 2013 depending on what he does next year. I wouldn't be surprised if Schafed ends next year in AAA with Cain being on the major league team.

[brewmann04]

hopefully some of their Young arms will move up and make an impact in Milwaukee

[nate82]

hopefully some of their Young arms will move up and make an impact in Milwaukee

Butler, Jones, and Rogers all should contribute to the MLB team next year in one way or another. But if you are seeing either one of those three starting it is probably not going to be a good sign though.

[MNBrew]

The Brewers love Cain, most definitely. But you're saying he only needs one more year to prove health, competence, & success at both AA & AAA. That's just hugely optimistic. You point out that he played in AAA in '08. Yes, but the 6 games he spent at Nashville in '08 were as an injury fill-in. 2/3 of the '08 season he still played in high-A. To count on Cain as the starting CF in '11, IMO, is a gigantic leap of faith.

 

I do find it ironic that many on this site believe Cain should be ready to be the everyday CF by 2011 at the latest, yet many also feel Cameron would more than justify another substantial contract due to his worth relative to other CFs.

[twobrewers]

The Brewers are very well lined up to make a run to the World Series in 2011 with Prince Fielder.

 

Without him, "next year" might go on forever.

[piccione88]

MNBrew wrote:

I do find it ironic that many on this site believe Cain should be ready to be the everyday CF by 2011 at the latest, yet many also feel Cameron would more than justify another substantial contract due to his worth relative to other CFs.

Not to change the subject, but how exactly is that ironic?

[MNBrew]

Alright, "ironic" wasn't the right word. Somewhere within that I see advocacy for the status quo and total change, even if the timing isn't simultaneous.

[paul253]

Apparently Buster Olney is predicting Fielder will end up in Boston next season. Which begs the obvious question, who would we get in return? Obviously Clay Bucholtz would have to be the starting point. Would they be willing to include Lars Anderson and another high ceiling pitching prospect? Daniel Bard maybe? Perhaps in order to get another high ceiling pitcher we'd also have to include a lower level pitcher of our own, someone like Periard or Frederickson.

[Never Outhustled]

Lars Anderson lost some serious luster this year. He had as bad of season as any major prospect, with a 673 OPS. He's still young, but it certainly raises a flag. Buchholz is already 25, he's a good, but not great, value. Boston doesn't have enough to get Fielder.

[dadofandrew]

Bucholtz, Bard, a solid A ball prospect (think Lawrie or a notch below) and Kotchman would be a starting point in my mind...maybe more, maybe less. I don't know much about their system, but that's what I would say would be a jumping off point for one of the best hitters in the game.

 

One thought I have had, has Hideki Matsui ever played 1B, or could he? He is still a fine hitter and wants to play defense, but most folks see him as a DH.

[JohnBriggs12]

I disagree with Olney. Boston is no better than 3rd choice of where Fielder will play in 2010.

 

I'd break it down by percentages:

 

Milwaukee: 80%

 

Brewers have marketing issues after this season and trading Fielder now is a really tough sell. They'd have to be blown away with an offer and nothing we've heard is going to get it done.

 

San Francisco: 15%

 

Giants have the combination of incentive (next to last in NL in runs scored) and the pitching including a top of the line prospect in Bumgarner and several just below that to blow away Melvin if they chose to. They also could be prime candidates for an expanded deal. They are the team to watch.

 

White Sox: 2%

 

You can never leave Ken Williams out of big name discussions. Thome is gone. Konerko is on his last legs. They have some arms they could deal, but not the depth the Giants have. Plus it now looks like Rios could end up being a big salary burden.

 

Boston: 2%

 

I'd leave Boston out of it entirely if they weren't always trying to out do the Yankees. They are 3rd in runs scored in AL this year so another big bat isn't a big enough incentive in my opinion for them to overpay and that's what Melvin wants. In my opinion Red Sox would be much more in need of Fielder in 2011 and would give up at least as much then as they would now.

 

Everyone else: 1% Such teams as Detroit, Seattle, Angels could kick the tires.

[paul253]

and the pitching including a top of the line prospects in Bumgarner and Alderson

 

Just a minor detail but didn't Alderson get traded to Pittsburgh in the Freddie Sanchez deal? I think SF would be a logical place as well due to their dire need of offense and their overwhelming pitching depth. I actually wouldn't mind combining Fielder and Hardy in a deal with SF to bring back some serious pitching talent, starting with Bumgarner. Tha being said, I disagree that Boston doesn't have enough to get him. Bucholz, Bowden/Hagadone plus Anderson (we have no 1st base prospects in the entire organization) and Daniel Bard, in my opinion, would be a nice haul.

[JohnBriggs12]

and the pitching including a top of the line prospects in Bumgarner and Alderson

 

Just a minor detail but didn't Alderson get traded to Pittsburgh in the Freddie Sanchez deal? I think SF would be a logical place as well due to their dire need of offense and their overwhelming pitching depth. I actually wouldn't mind combining Fielder and Hardy in a deal with SF to bring back some serious pitching talent, starting with Bumgarner. Tha being said, I disagree that Boston doesn't have enough to get him. Bucholz, Bowden/Hagadone plus Anderson (we have no 1st base prospects in the entire organization) and Daniel Bard, in my opinion, would be a nice haul.

My bad, you're right on Alderson. I was looking at an outdated prospect list. I've edited it.

[nate82]

Tha being said, I disagree that Boston doesn't have enough to get him. Bucholz, Bowden/Hagadone plus Anderson (we have no 1st base prospects in the entire organization) and Daniel Bard, in my opinion, would be a nice haul.

It is not that Boston doesn't have enough to get Fielder it is just that they will not be willing to give up what Melvin would want in return which is pretty close to what you are suggesting.

[Invader3K]

Right, that's the thing. Fielder is worth about four to five very good AAA level players at this point. It's just hard to imagine any team being willing to give up that much for one player. That's the kind of deal Melvin has to demand though. If teams just want to trade one pitcher (no matter how good) and maybe one throw in guy, he needs to hang up the phone.

 

Edit: Just read this on MLB Trade Rumors and had to share. From a Red Sox fan (of course): "What if we let Bay walk and trade for Braun instead?"

 

They really have no clue out there, do they? They seem to just think almost all of MLB is one big feeder system for them and the Yankees. It makes me sick.