Toss up: Hardy or Escobar?

[rluzinski]

Maybe gaffes that actually cost teams the W should be weighted heavier in the almighty UZR stat.

 

While I agree that Escobar's current UZR is meaningless, the above comment strongly suggests that you don't understand what UZR is trying to measure in the first place. UZR isn't trying to measure the influence a particular player's defense has had on his team winning or losing over a certain period. It's trying to estimate the true defensive talent of that player. Game context is irrelevant.

 

As far as I'm concerned, there's no quantitative data on Escobar's defense, that would help us estimate his true defensive talent. I think X would actually agree with that. As a result, I am relying exclusively on scouting information. If he's expected to be an above average defender by the people who's seen him play, that's our best guess. It would take a couple of years of a low UZR before I would feel compelled to significantly alter that opinion. Of course, Hardy has already set the bar very high for defense, so I'm not prepared to just assume that Escobar should be expected to translate a higher percentage of balls into outs.

[joepepsi]

The Orioles have Wigginton as a stop gap at 3rd through next year. I suspect they'd be more interested in Escobar than Hardy. Izturis is signed through 2010 and Escobar fits better with their rebuilding. They don't look to be competitive in 2010, so they won't be interested in Hardy. Escobar adds to the young talent of Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Reimold and all the kid pitchers. Hardy will be expensive and gone before they are competitive.

[Invader3K]

Everyone always talks about following the Twins/A's model, but it seems like few actually want to follow it in this instance. Those two teams constantly turn over their rosters, trading the young guys before they get too expensive, and replacing them with younger guys who are less expensive and under control for more years. Yet when it actually comes time for the Brewers to make similar moves, everyone wants to try and go half way.

 

I don't get it.

[endaround]

Except that isn't the A's model. The A's rebuild when they look bad but will add talent when they think they have a chance. Beane made a career of renting players for draft picks.

[sheethead]

As far as I'm concerned, there's no quantitative data on Escobar's defense, that would help us estimate his true defensive talent. I think X would actually agree with that.

 

I'm not so sure, seeing as how he cited the limited data as the main argument why Escobar is not ready to play at the MLB level. I understand game context is not part of the UZR equation. I mentioned it would be nice if they could incorporate qualitative data (such as game context) to come up with a more meaningful metric, that's all. Forgive me if I gave you the impression that I am ignorant on what their data is driving at.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not so sure, seeing as how he cited the limited data as the main argument why Escobar is not ready to play at the MLB level

 

All he did with that data is to point out the fact that Escobar, in his short time in the bigs, has not played a good SS. You're projecting something onto the comment that isn't there. Beyond that, iirc X talked about how Escobar's bat isn't ready, as well.

 

Fwiw I think Escobar's completely ready defensively. However I'd rather see him get some more time at AAA next season -- I like the Counsell/? platoon idea. Oh, and to the OP's question... Escobar.

[Never Outhustled]

Everyone always talks about following the Twins/A's model, but it seems like few actually want to follow it in this instance. Those two teams constantly turn over their rosters, trading the young guys before they get too expensive, and replacing them with younger guys who are less expensive and under control for more years. Yet when it actually comes time for the Brewers to make similar moves, everyone wants to try and go half way.

 

The A's model? When have they had success re-building? They're terrible, and are showing no signs of improvement.

 

We don't have a bottom feeder payroll like those teams do, because of all the great support the people here give the team. We can re-build quicker because of this.

[logan82]

I guess I can't get overly excited about a guy who doesn't walk and has never posted an OPS over .800.

 

I wouldn't bet on Hardy putting up a .800+OPS again either.

 

I think Hardy is the better hitter and player overall in the short term. Escobar is the more valuable player easily because of his 6 cost controlled years. I think the choice should be made depending on when you want to compete for a post season again. If you want to compete next year, trading Escobar for a pitcher and keeping Hardy would be the way to go. If you plan on having a down year next year, trade Hardy for a prospect that will be ready in a couple years. I like the idea of finding a journeyman SS to platoon with Counsell and let Escobar mature a bit. Is Escobar ready for the majors, maybe. His 2016 season is likely to be more valuable than his 2010 season though.

 

Do the scouts say Escobar has elite defense right now or the potential to be a great defender? It seems to me the scouts always talk about potential and not what a player actually is right now. How could they really tell for sure unless they watch him daily?

[yogallardo43]

If you asked me the question of who is more valuable, I of course would say Escobar. The argument that am making is that with Escobar being more valuable, would some people rather trade him than Hardy? It is really tough to say what we are going to get for either player. Until that is really known, it is an interesting question to answer. What do you guys expect to get by trading Hardy, or Escobar.

[Never Outhustled]

Escobar is the more valuable player easily because of his 6 cost controlled years.

That depends on if we give him the SS job right now. He is a replacement level playerright now. He might only have 5 useful cost controlled years if used improperly. As Logan staes later in his post, it would be best to find Counsel a platoon partner and start them at SS to begin next season. As the lefthanded batter, Counsel would get 2/3s of the starts, so we wouldn't need to spend anything on his platoon partner.

[logan82]

As Logan staes later in his post, it would be best to find Counsel a platoon partner and start them at SS to begin next season.

 

Just for the record not my idea, but I like it. It makes a lot of sense since I believe trading Hardy would be one of the signs that we are planning on taking a small step back.

[TheCrew07]

Escobar doesn't hit for enough power to bring back pitching all by his lonesome. I have to believe Hardy will be unwilling to do anything team friendly after the AAA situation was handled so stupidly... they should have left him down there more than the minimum so the front office at least had an argument that it was a performance related move. Warranted or not, it's obvious now that the team had made the move for what I would consider the wrong reason. If Melvin was so intent on trading Hardy (which seems like the only possible scenario now as he removed the possibility of resigning Hardy) then he should have done it when Hardy's value was at it's peak.

 

The pitching situation and the situation at SS are a mess and were both handled in the worst possible way.

[ELCABALLO45]

If we can get a really good pitcher for Escobar, Im all for trading him and keeping Hardy.

[Never Outhustled]

If Melvin was so intent on trading Hardy (which seems like the only possible scenario now as he removed the possibility of resigning Hardy

 

Couldn't he just keep him if he doesn't get the right offer, and deal him at mid-season?

 

 

then he should have done it when Hardy's value was at it's peak.

But who would have played SS this year?

[rluzinski]

I mentioned it would be nice if they could incorporate qualitative data (such as game context) to come up with a more meaningful metric.

 

Again, game context is irrelevant if we are trying to estimate a defenders true defensive skill (his ability to convert balls in play into outs). It's very meaningful metric when you appreciate that.

[logan82]

You can't choose game context when a ball is hit to you.

[TheCrew07]

X, I haven't been nor will I ever be concerned with creating holes to acquire a meaningful pitcher. I, unlike yourself, would have been fine with Escobar, I've never viewed his AA campaign as an outlier, I've viewed him as a player on the rise, and have repeatedly posted about the positive offensive trends in his career as he moves up levels. I've also been of the opinion that Escobar won't take the next significant step as a hitter until he quits messing around with winter ball, I'd like him to add some muscle to his wiry frame, but I have no idea if he will, but he never will playing winter ball, there just isn't time enough.

 

In the off season outside of Escobar I wouldn't have been happy with a Counsell stop gap, I would have been upset with that. I would have been alright with Hall moving back to SS for a season or 2 and Gamel coming up to play 3B full time. Of course as it turned out Counsell would have been the better option, so I would have been wrong. A stop gap FA SS wouldn't have bothered me either as I believe it's easier to get affordable production from position players than pitchers in FA.

 

How would Hardy have more value at mid-season next year, than he would have had last off season? Any way you slice it Hardy's peak value is past us, unless he goes on some offensive tear next season that no one is going to predict where he suddenly puts up a .900+ OPS over 200+ ABs. Melvin has backed himself into a place where it's unrealistic to expect Hardy to resign, there's no garuantee he'll be a type A, so it appears the best value for Melvin to get the most value out of JJ is to trade him. So again, if we were going to end up here in a place where our best alternative is to trade him, then he should have been moved when his value was at it's highest. This has nothing to do with JJ having a down year, even if with a similar offensive season his value would have diminished as a glorified rental player. I just don't think the SS situation like the pitching situtation was handled very well at all, no aggressive moves were made in either situation.

[TooLiveBrew]

Any way you slice it Hardy's peak value is past us

 

You have no way to know this, and absolutely no way to prove it.

[JonnyLungs]

Any way you slice it Hardy's peak value is past us

 

You have no way to know this, and absolutely no way to prove it.

I don't think it's as hard to prove as you think. Hardy after last season, coming off an excellent season and having two service years left has a higher value than Hardy coming off a horrible year and two service years left. If he rebounds next year, his service time left will degrade that value somewhat and even more the knowledge that he can lay an egg over the course of a whole season.

 

The only way I could see his value exceeding the value he had last offseason is if he signs a very cheap three year deal after he hits free agency and plays extremely well in his first year.

 

I just wrote this whole post realizing I was talking about trade value and you are probably thinking about player value. In which case, you are correct. But I wonder if the original quote was talking about trade value and not player value to a team? That's the way I saw it in which case I think you are misunderstanding what you quoted.

[monty57]

Well, JJ could start next season super hot, and Jeter could go down for the season. Now, through depletion, JJ's value has shot up dramatically, as the Yankees will be willing to overpay greatly for a replacement for Jeter.

 

Just an example of how it's hard to ever use absolutes.

[chickinbrickin]

Trade Hardy, hands down. Hardy is a mediocre bat with occasional power. Everyone in this forum knows his HR totals come from two or three hot weeks in a season, and all the other time he is 2.30 hitter with zero speed. He is a solid big league defender, but he has little range. Also, you need to factor in the contract and the $$$. Escobar brings speed and a lead off hitter to the Brewers. He also has great range and can pick it with the best of them. He does need some work on keeping his throwing errors down, but his D will get better with more time in the bigs. He is a potential 300 hitter who will most certainly develop more power. Even in slumps he has plenty of speed to beat out infield singles as we have seen in his short time with the team this year. This one is a no brainer to me. Why would you trade cheap$$ potential when you can trade away much higher dollar mediocre? The only problem with trading Hardy is he did so horrible this season he has little value right now. I honestly would like to see him stay with the Brewers to start 2010 and have Alcides start the year in Huntsville. They could then see if Hardy can pick up his game to drum up some trade value while Alcides gets a little more time to get seasoned in AAA. Either way go Crew

[futurefan]

In what world do we think Hardy would want to play for the Brewers next year after the "20 day " stint to work on his swing. I think it is a moot point that he will be traded and AE will start for the Brewers next year.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

How would you guys compare Escobar to Elvis Andrus of the Texas Rangers? He has looked very good as their starting SS this year without showing power and using his defense and speed tools to help the Rangers win games. I don't think it's unrealistic that Escobar has an Andrus type rookie year in 2010 and that would be perfectly fine by me and as a matter of fact my preference for next season. The girly Brewer fans will have to find somebody else to drool over. Bye Hardy.

[Ennder]

I personally think Escobar's upside is Andrus, that is the best he could do. He wasn't ready for the majors this year though so complaining about not trading Hardy is mostly just a hindsight move. If Hardy had repeated his last 2 seasons his value would be very high this year, there was no good reason to assume he'd tank this year. There was also no reason to think we had no shot at the playoffs going into the season, we just had a bad year all around.

[endaround]

Andrus away from Texas:.248 .307 .338