Toss up: Hardy or Escobar?

[yogallardo43]

I just posted on my blog on why I think trading Escobar, although against the norm, would be a good option. What do you guys think? Hardy for 2 years/$~8 million and a good starter, or five cheap years of Escobar and a lesser pitcher in return.

 

Here is a link to the blog.

[dadofandrew]

JJ will get a minimum of of $10M for 2 years, and Escobar will be around for 6 seasons after this year, 3-4 of which will be extraordinarily cheap.

 

This is as easy of a call as Betty over Veronica...and I'm a contrarian.

[1992casey]

I've locked the behemoth Hardy transaction thread and have added this one to the Designated Threads List. As a reminder, please play nice. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[CheezWizHed]

Well, if we keep Hardy and trade Escobar, we would be looking at Prince (the other one) at SS in two years. Not sure he is a slam dunk MLB talent yet. Not saying yes or no either way, just thinking about future options.

 

I have a feeling that the MiLB time for Hardy this year burnt a bridge, however. I would be surprised if they don't trade him.

 

DOA - did you just pick Veronica over Betty (being contrarian)? Unthinkable! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[rluzinski]

This question is impossible to answer without knowing what the Brewers could get for trading either player. The value of a player equals his expected performance minus salary. While Hardy still projects to be the superior player right now, he's also getting paid more and is only Brewer property for 2 more years.

 

Let's say the following represents the value for each player (making up numbers):

 

Year...... Escobar / Hardy

2010..... $9mil (ave SS getting min) / $9mil (1 win above ave getting $5 mil)

2011..... $10mil / $9mil

2012..... $11mil/ $0

2013..... $8mil (1 win above ave getting paid 40% of his free agent value)

2014..... $5 mil (paid 60%)

2013..... $3 mil (80%)

 

Using these ficticious numbers, Escobar is worth $46 mil in a trade, Hardy, $18 mil. If you can only get $30 mil of talent in return for Escobar, you'd almost be forced to get whatever you can for Hardy and keep Escobar.

[sheethead]

This one is easy for me... Escobar.

[joepepsi]

yogallardo43, last winter I would have agreed with you. I was a big advocate for trading Escobar and Hart, keeping Hardy. I think Escobar can be a fine major league ss, but I'm not convinced he's All Star caliber. Last winter, I figured it was worth two more seasons of "going for it" with one of the best ss in the league playing alongside Braun and Prince. 2011 was a long ways off so there would be time to find at least an average replacement.

 

Now I think they need to cut payroll wherever they can, in the hope of finding some extra cash for pitching. That means trading Hardy and probably letting Cameron and Kendall walk. Those three gone lowers the estimated payroll by $20 million. Assuming they can re-sign Gerut they would at least have adequate replacements for all 3.

[yogallardo43]

My impression on Escobar seems to be that of many on this board. Everyone really hopes that he is as good as everyone says he is, but we really don't see it. I guess I can't get overly excited about a guy who doesn't walk and has never posted an OPS over .800. I really think Hardy is a great player who has had a terrible season. I expect him to rebound nicely in 2010. Could Escobar magically develop power like Hanley Ramirez did, sure, but I don't think that we should give up on Hardy for a marginal player.

[JohnBriggs12]

The trouble with paying Hardy, even $10 million over 2 years, is that it locks him in as your SS much the way they were forced to open this year with Hall at 3B. That's fine if he's the guy we saw in 07 and 08, but not if he's the 09 version. With what happened with Hall, I don't see them doing that. Trading Hardy and starting Escobar at SS next season, leaves you with more flexibility. They aren't going to deal Hardy, and leave Escobar alone completely to sink or swim. That's one of the reasons why bringing back Lopez makes sense. You could try Weeks in the OF and Lopez at 2B, then if Escobar struggled, just move Lopez to SS and Weeks back to 2B. There's also still a decent possibility that Counsell returns for another year to offer protection at the position.

[joepepsi]

I'm sure Counsell will be back if wants to.

 

I think there is reason to believe Hardy will bounce back next year. His major league career rates entering this year were .270/.329/.446. His career BAbip is .282, this year it's .251, which roughly explains his current batting average and obp as compared to his career rates. The question is, will he hit 26 homers in a season again?

 

Even if he doesn't he''ll probably still settle in as an average hitter playing an important defensive position. He may be too expensive for the Brewers, as an average ss, but I think he'll still have good value to another team. Especially to a smart GM who recognizes it's not unthinkable for a .270 lifetime hitter to hit around .230 in a given season. Cal Ripken at 28 posted a 257/.317/.401. Two years later he had a .940 OPS and won his second MVP.

 

I think Hardy is more Ripken than Bill Hall.

[rluzinski]

I agree with your opinion about Escobar's bat. I just don't think you are adjusting for position. The average SS doesn't even sniff a .800 OPS. Since 2006, here's their approximate line:

 

.270/.330/.405/.745

 

Escobar could hit below that and his (projected) above average defense could still make him an average SS overall. And an average SS is still worth a lot on the open market.

 

Not sure what we should expect from Escobar offensively next year. .320/.400/.720 maybe. At league min and with good to great defense, that's not bad. Of course, he shouldn't lead off but I'm sure the Brewers won't be able to resist...

[endaround]

That .400 slg is way too optimistic. Much closer to .360.

[yogallardo43]

Don't get me wrong, I completely understand why many want to keep Escobar. He has much more value because he doesn't hit FA for a long time. That is also going to be very attractive to other teams. Why not just see what they can get for either player before setting it in stone that they are going to trade Hardy? If we got the same player in return, Escobar is obviously the better choice for the Brewers to keep financially. I just think that if we are going to hang onto Fielder, there is a two year window to get this thing done. If they are willing to trade Prince, trading Hardy makes more sense. If they are going to keep him and take the draft picks, trading Escobar seems to make more sense to me.

[Invader3K]

You need to save money for pitching. I say trade Hardy for the best package you can get. It's not like it's certain Hardy is going to bounce back after this season.

[jhart05]

I'll just repost what I put in the other thread:

 

"I don't really know why there is still discussion about this anyway. Escobar is cheaper and one of the top prospects in all of the minors. We're not talking about the Yankees, Angels, Cubs, or Red Sox, who can pay players whatever they want. Those teams would have the choice to shop both players around and take the best deal. This is the Brewers. They have to go with the cheaper option in Escobar, and hope they can get a solid #3 starter for Hardy."

[TheCrew07]

That .400 slg is way too optimistic. Much closer to .360.

Based on what? He's improving and has hit more 30 XBHs each of the last 2 seasons. It's a mistake to automatically reduce his AAA numbers, the same way you did his AA line, while ignoring his physical talent. You were wrong about his AAA season and if you think he's a sub .700 OPS MLB hitter you'll be wrong again. Low .700s is probably reasonable for his first full season.

[lodiness]

Easy for me, Escobar. Think he has a much better glove, he's quicker, can steal bases, and I think that his bat will keep on getting better. Won't put up power numbers, but I think that he will be a leadoff type of guy. I also don't believe that Hardy has put together a full season. Yes they year he made the all star game he had a good first half, but in the second half he crapped out.

[yogallardo43]

All I hear is how much better defensively Escobar is than Hardy. He has been below average defensively this season at the major league, although not a huge sample size. Hardy is a great defender and I think that gets over looked.

[Invader3K]

Most players seem to struggle defensively starting out...most of the guys the Brewers currently have on their current MLB roster, in fact. I'm not worried about Escobar's defense going forward. He's only 22, he's going to have some "growing pains," just like Hardy, Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Gamel, etc.

[sheethead]

I guess I don't see how Escobar has been a below average defender in the same token Hardy has been above average. Escobar has already made at least 3 plays this year that Hardy could not make in his wildest dreams.

[Never Outhustled]

Escobar has already made at least 3 plays this year that Hardy could not make in his wildest dreams.

Maybe, but he just hasn't converted outs on the rest of the plays like Hardy does. While I'm sure it will change over time, but Escobar has a bad UZR right now, and he's earned it.

 

Just as I said when Escobar was called up, he has no business in the majors right now, he has played very poorly, below replacement level in fact. He has no business in the majors to start next year either. If Hardy is traded, find Counsel a platoon partner and start them at SS until Escobar earns a MLB job. Don't gift it to him and burn service time on a presently bad player. He might be really good later in his career, lets make sure he's Brewers property then.

 

 

You need to save money for pitching. I say trade Hardy for the best package you can get.

 

What if that package isn't good? is it really a good idea to sign a FA pitcher to a multi-year deal? What if we pick up a couple of interesting arms for Hart and McGehee?

 

The Brewers need to enter the offseason opened minded. They need 2 starting pitchers, but there is multiple avenues to acquire them.

[Thurston Fluff]

While I certainly think it's one or the other I don't know if it's mandatory to trade either of them in the off season. Granted we need pitching but if we can get it without trading either of them or we can't get what we want in return we may end up better off keeping them both. Hardy can reestablish himself and it wouldn't hurt Escobar to play a little longer in AAA to get his bat up to speed. Just food for thought.

[sheethead]

Maybe, but he just hasn't converted outs on the rest of the plays like Hardy does. While I'm sure it will change over time, but Escobar has a bad UZR right now, and he's earned it.

 

I keep trying to make sense of statements like this, but to no avail. How can anyone credibly point to the UZR data after 16 MLB starts as a reason a rookie isn't ready? The only game-costing defensive gaffe that was made since Escobar came up was committed by UZR friendly Cameron. Maybe gaffes that actually cost teams the W should be weighted heavier in the almighty UZR stat.

[nate82]

What if that package isn't good? is it really a good idea to sign a FA pitcher to a multi-year deal? What if we pick up a couple of interesting arms for Hart and McGehee?

 

The Brewers need to enter the offseason opened minded. They need 2 starting pitchers, but there is multiple avenues to acquire them.

I would rather do a Hardy and McGehee trade than a Hart and McGehee trade there is more value in trading Hardy and McGehee together. The Orioles come to mind in needing a 3B and a SS and they have some good young pitchers. There is some value in the free agency market the Brewers could look at getting Escobar being one that could come cheaply because of his injury concerns he may only get a 1 year deal because of his age and injury that has left him out for the past 2 years.

 

A rotation of Gallardo, Escobar, Bush, Parra, Butler/Jones/Suppan wouldn't be any worse than this year or 2008. In fact there should be more depth next year than there was this year. You could even go with a rotation of Gallardo, FA Pitcher, Bush, Parra, Butler and have Suppan be the #6 guy or longman in the bullpen. The Brewers will have more depth next year with Jones and Rogers being available and that is a huge step up from Dillard, Smith, and Burns. Maybe you could even put Capuano in the mix as the #6 starter along with Jones and Rogers.

 

I believe the Brewers will be able to trade Hardy for a rather good prospect not a top 25 prospect but a top 50-100 prospect from someone. Remember that if the Brewers continue the way they are playing their pick should be protected in the draft and that means they will be probably go after a type A guy knowing they will still be able to keep their draft pick in the 1st round. I still believe Hardy has a lot of value left in him and there are GM's out there looking to get Hardy and will see what it will take to get him.

 

I don't know why I have this feeling but I believe Melvin is going to go hard after Lackey or Hudson if he comes on the market which I believe he will the Braves will choose Vazquez over him and exercise the $1m buyout on Hudson's contract. I just have this 6th sense feeling that Melvin is going to push Mark A or Mark A is going to push Melvin to get a top quality pitcher in the free agency market and I believe it will be Lackey or Hudson who we will end up getting. With Hardy's money coming off the books it should be enough to land someone like a Lackey or Hudson that is if the Brewers also go with some cost saving in not bringing back Kendall and Cameron the Brewers should be able to bring one back and I'm hoping it is Cameron but they can't bring both back even at reduced salaries.

[Never Outhustled]

The Orioles come to mind in needing a 3B and a SS and they have some good young pitchers.

Baltimore just acquired a real good 3B prospect in Josh Bell so I'm guessing they go with a stop gap at 3B until Bell is ready, which should be mid-season next year. Hardy for Guthrie makes sense though, I just expanded on that here, post # 149.