Macha and his players not on same page? (Latest: Macha to return with 2011 club option)

[TheCrew07]

The goal shouldn't be playoff contention, the goal should be World Series contention, at least in my opinion.

 

By signing pitchers of marginal talent to market contracts it limits roster and financial flexibility. The Brewers are on the hook for $23 million in 3 players, Hall is in Seattle, Riske will likely not pitch for the Brewers again, and Suppan is declining. To continue to add more mediocrity only limits the amount of money that can be spent on our truly talented players going forward. Melvin needs to stop going year to year with our core players and start buying out some FA years. I'm much more concerned with locking up our core talent than I am excercising Looper's option. Just because the team can spend 90 mil per season, doesn't mean they should. Especially since it will be very difficult to predict the production out of 3B, CF, RF, C, and SS next season. The easiest way to cover uncertainty in the lineup is with very good pitching, I still believe the Brewers will get better mileage by addressing a spot or 2 in the in the rotation more so than acquiring another productive bat. WAR isn't going to back that up on a 1 for 1 type basis (pitcher vs position player), but there is a domino effect throughout the rest of the rotation and bullpen that's very difficult to pigeon hole. I will say this, generally speaking the starting pitches are the best pitchers on any staff, and it makes sense to have your most productive pitchers throwing as much as possible, or put another way the less innings the bullpen has to pitch, the better team the Brewers are going to be.

 

It is unreasonable to assemble a rotation of pitchers, 1 of which will post an ERA under 4, and expect them to get the job done. The offense is going to score runs... but not consistently enough to win games as we've seen this season, nor will Bush, Looper, Suppan, or Gallardo pitch deep enough into games on a consistent basis. I like Bush, I really do, he won't back down from anyone, but he just doesn't have much margin for error and as much as I like Gallardo, he's not economical with his pitches. We're leaving way too many innings out there for the bullpen this season, and I don't see that improving if we retain the exactly same pitching staff. On a somewhat regular basis we'll need starters to pitch through the 7th inning to even out the 4 inning starts, outside of Gallardo, who else on the staff is capable of that?

 

My opinion hasn't changed from last off season, if the Brewers are going to be aquiring pitching, they shouldn't be wasting their money paying for marginal upgrades over the replacement pitchers we already have in the system. We should be acquiring starters around Parra's natural talent level, with that kind of stuff. I'm not talking about Parra's results, I'm talking about his velocity and movement on his pitches, someone with some margin for error...

 

Wright, Green, Dillard... those guys aren't quality depth. Rivas, Rogers, and Butler are quality depth. Going forward depth shouldn't be an issue, the team will be able to reach down and pluck a talented youngster from AAA or AA for the next 3/4 seasons.

[mletto157]

The goal shouldn't be playoff contention, the goal should be World Series contention

 

I guess that's where the difference is in our thinking. IMO any team that is in playoff contention is therefore in World Series contention. How often do you think the best two teams in the league play in the World Series? Any team that makes the playoffs can make the WS. All it takes is a good hot streak.

[MJLiverock]

Bush as a starter in 2009 averages 5.2 innings with a 5.85 ERA, Brewers are 10-9 in his starts, 5.26 run support

Burns as a starter in 2009 averages 5.0 innings with a 6.86 ERA, Brewers are 4-4 in his starts, 5.48 run support

 

Suppan as a starter in 2009 averages 5.4 innings with a 4.87 ERA, Brewers are 11-15 in his starts, 3.8 run support

Villanueva as a starter in 2009 averages 5.0 innings with a 4.95 ERA, Brewers are 1-4 in his starts, 4.4 run support

 

I matched em up head to head since their number of starts as replacements basically matched up for the games missed by Bush and Suppan. Narveson's one start was on 09/13, well after Bush and Suppan were back. McClung's two starts I'll just assume as a necessary 6th starter role or in replacement of Parra. They both occured at the end June.

 

In either case the step down from Bush/Suppan to Burns/Villanueva wasn't that big of a difference. Similar team records and similar run support in their slotted games. I'll concede a couple wins at most but having Suppan and Bush probably wouldn't have done any more than that, this team would still be well out of contention and have a burned up bullpen.

 

Even last year Suppan averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start. Bush has averaged 6.2 and 5.9 innings per start during the previous two years.

 

I'll leave it at this; Is Bush a better pitcher than Burns? Yes. Is Suppan better than Villanueva? eh maybe maybe not.

 

Is the reason the Brewers weren't contenders due to the difference in Bush/Suppan vs. Burns/Villanueva? I don't believe it is, the Brewers won those games at about the same rate, maybe down a couple but not 8 or more needed to be contenders. The bullpen would wear down anyway because neither are 7 inning plus pitchers.

 

I believe the reason the Brewers aren't contenders and won't be next year without changes is due to not having enough good pitchers. A healthy Bush and Suppan aren't enough to qualify. The 5+ innings per start from Suppan and even a healthy Bush putting up 6 1/3 won't stop the pen from getting worn down again. Parra and Gallardo would need to step their efficiency greatly and start throwing more than 5 or 6 innings themselves or the same thing will happen all over again. A bullpen can't be expected to throw 3+ inniings every game day in and day out.

 

Sure they had a nice start to the season but having a good start doesn't mean they would have kept up that level all year. They were due to have some mean reversion given their skill set. Plenty of teams have a hot month or two but it doesn't mean they were contenders for the whole year. If the season were reversed and they played terrible in April and May versus July and August people wouldn't focus so much on being in 1st place early in the season.

[RobertR]

What I think it comes down to is that the Brewers simply didn't have another Ace-type pitcher in the rotation that could work deep into games and cover up the deficiencies of the back end. Probably more than the deficiencies/injuries of Bush, Suppan, and Looper, you have to add in the first half flop of Parra.

 

Looking at Looper's contract in a vacuum, I have no problem with the price. $6.5 million doesn't buy you much for starting pitching and he's been productive enough and doesn't seem to have any injury warning signs. If he can figure a way to cut down on those HRs, he could even have a decent amount of upside for 2010. I won't say he's been a bargain, but it was a buyer's market and he certainly came cheaper than he would have in other years.

 

But, it's too early to say that you can depend on Parra. And, Looper, Suppan, and Bush as a group is underwhelming with little upside. You really need to replace at least one of those 4 with some sort of horse. And Parra isn't going anywhere due to his contract status and upside.

 

Frankly, I think Bush has the most trade value compared with his value to the team. Someone probably still thinks he's young with some upside and his 2009 was derailed by injuries and his 2008 and playoff win is closer to his true value. Package him with someone like Hart, Hardy, or even Gamel and I think you could get something of value in return. I don't think you can get the same return for Suppan or Looper. At least in terms of pitchers. You might be able to swap them for a Milton Bradley type that's already wore out his welcome.

 

In any event, I expect Looper's option to be picked up. And for the Brewers to dangle Bush, Suppan, and Looper and see what deal makes the most sense for them. I just expect that to be one involving trading Bush and keeping Looper.

 

Robert

[trwi7]

Keeping Looper would be incredibly disappointing at his price tag. Yeah, $6.5M may not buy you much on the free agent market, but it's not like that's our limit to spend. You can combine that $6.5M and add it to other money we have to spend. Or you could offer that plus a little more for John Smoltz who has been good since he came back to the NL.

 

I can think of a ton of things I'd rather do with the $6.5M than just keep Looper with it. If Melvin is just going to settle at Looper for $6.5M, then he should find himself a new job.

[logan82]

The Brewers are on the hook for $23 million in 3 players, Hall is in Seattle, Riske will likely not pitch for the Brewers again, and Suppan is declining.

 

Riske isn't making much and I would be willing to bet we get insurance money since he isn't likely to pitch next year.

[logan82]

Haudricourt has an article comparing Yost and Macha. A lot of it looks like a rehashing of stuff already printed. Link

 

"If you look at the teams having success today, they all have 'old school' managers," said Melvin. "Sometimes, the expectations are very high. That's one reason I brought Ken in here. I wanted a high level of expectations.

Ugh.

 

"Charlie Manuel, his first year in Philadelphia, had troubles. Last year, he won a World Series. You sit down and work it out. There are 25 players to a club."

Doesn't look good for those hoping for a new manager. Looks like there will either be Macha or some other "old school" retread. I am a little sick now.

[RockCoCougars]

I've felt all along that Macha and Melvin are a package deal for 2010. If Mark A. gets a little antsy, or if someone like LaRussa becomes available, I don't doubt for a minute that he will mandate a move to Melvin. My guess is that at that point, Melvin would probably leave to pursue other opportunities as well...... I don't think that he'd do another Yosting.

[Roderick]

I can think of a ton of things I'd rather do with the $6.5M than just keep Looper with it. If Melvin is just going to settle at Looper for $6.5M, then he should find himself a new job.

Once again, the number to be used for analyzing the cost should be $5.5M since the Brewers would have to pay a $1M to not pick up his 2010 option. And if you are complaining about that money, I'm sure $1.0M, or 17% of that amount must be substantial also.

 

I assume the Brewers will have to decline or exercise Looper's option before they will be able to realistically know if they will be able to find a better starter via trade or FA. Since that is the case, my vote would be to lock up Looper and then see what you can do as an improvement. If we proceed via trade, it is possible the other team would take Looper back to fill the starter they traded away. A Hart, Looper and one of our better minor leaguers to find a "better" starter that is under contract for at least two years.

[trwi7]

Once again, the number to be used for analyzing the cost should be $5.5M since the Brewers would have to pay a $1M to not pick up his 2010 option.

Whatever. $5.5M, the point is you don't pay that for a below replacement level starter. I don't care how many depth problems you have on pitching, with limited resources, it's insane to spend that much.

If we proceed via trade, it is possible the other team would take Looper back to fill the starter they traded away.

Do you realize how unlikely that is? Remember back to the beginning of last year when we had to decide between Capuano, Bush and Vargas? We all thought, okay, we'll just trade the guy who doesn't get the rotation spot. Well we ended up releasing Vargas because nobody wanted to pay him the $3+M or whatever it was that he signed for. What makes you think any team is going to want Looper for his price tag if they didn't want Vargas for his?

Once again, Looper, coming off a 4.16 ERA season signed for $4.75M with the mutual option for $6.5M if he reaches 30 starts. Now he has a 4.9 ERA season and we're just going to bring him back and settle for him because we don't have depth? Sorry, not good enough for me at least. We have four main stays in the rotation going into next year. Gallardo, Parra, Suppan and Bush. Look to make a trade using Hardy and McGehee and see what you can get. Sign a guy like Smoltz, Penny or Bedard. There's no reason to settle for Looper.

[Invader3K]

I agree with trwi7. It would also be nice for the Brewers to continue their trend of letting overpaid under performing guys go and send the message that lack of production isn't going to be tolerated.

[endaround]

Looper's K/9 fell, his BB/9 went up, his HR/9 went up, and his fastball lost 1 mph. There just is really no reason to feel like this is a fluke. The best you can hope is Looper regains his 2007 form which has a WAR of 1.2 compared to this year's -0.6. The Brewers are stuck with Suppan, Bush outpitched Looper when healthy and Looper has an expensive option.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Its about time we stop paying for mediocrity and worse. We are stuck with Suppan in the rotation because of his contract but we can upgrade on Looper. We cant possibly go into next season with this same rotation if we expect to contend.

[Tbadder]

One thing we have to realize is that we need a minimum of seven viable starting pitchers--our current five plus two others. I've seen nothing that suggest the five we do have can complete a season. I also think they'll need to add at least two AAA starters who project better than what we currently have/had at AAA. So basically they have to resign Looper.

 

Just another question: what good pitcher would sign with Milwaukee? We'll never come up with the best offer to a truly good pitcher (like Lackey). I think we need to brace ourselves for an unproductive off-season pitching wise.

[endaround]

Resign Vargas for depth then.

[TheCrew07]

What's wrong with Butler, Rivas, Rogers, Bowman, Periard, and Cody as depth between AAA and AA? Why do we have to sign some scrubs just for depth? I'd actually rather use our young kids, they can bounce up and get broken in a little bit making a couple starts, then get sent back down when the original starter comes off the DL. Seems like the perfect way for them to get a taste and get past the MLB experience before being thrust into the rotation for a full season.

[joepepsi]

I've seen nothing that suggest the five we do have can complete a season.

Really? Other than Parra, the rest of this year's rotation represent about the healthiest pitching careers in recent memory. Until this summer Bush has never been on the DL, never even injured in college. Suppan has a chance to make his 30th start the last week of the season-that's 11-30 starts seasons in a row. Looper has made 30 starts each of his last 3 seasons-his first 3 seasons as a major league starter. In 12 seasons overall I don't recall him ever being on the DL. Yo missed most of last year but it wasn't due to a pitching or arm injury.

[jeffy]

It would also be nice for the Brewers to continue their trend of letting overpaid under performing guys go and send the message that lack of production isn't going to be tolerated.

 

The problem is they still have to pay them after they let them go.

[Invader3K]

The problem is they still have to pay them after they let them go.

You wouldn't have to pay Looper other than the $1 million buy out. I just do not see the justification for paying Looper that much money when he is not very good, and would be taking money at a position we desperately need to upgrade.

[Tbadder]

I've seen nothing that suggest the five we do have can complete a season.

Really? Other than Parra, the rest of this year's rotation represent about the healthiest pitching careers in recent memory. Until this summer Bush has never been on the DL, never even injured in college. Suppan has a chance to make his 30th start the last week of the season-that's 11-30 starts seasons in a row. Looper has made 30 starts each of his last 3 seasons-his first 3 seasons as a major league starter. In 12 seasons overall I don't recall him ever being on the DL. Yo missed most of last year but it wasn't due to a pitching or arm injury.

Well, yeah. Gallardo doesn't finish the season. Bush misses time. Parra. They're getting older not younger. I can't imagine it'll get better. And if you're right, which indeed may be the case, then it's bound to happen even moreso. But I take your point.

[logan82]

Gallardo(23) and Parra(26) are still at an age where we should expect some improvement or at the very least maintaining their performance not decline. Gallardo shouldn't have been expected to finish the year when he was coming off a year where he only had 31 innings.

[Invader3K]

If Parra maintains his overall performance from this season, he should probably be moved to the bullpen or DFAed.

[TCSM]

If Parra maintains his overall performance from this season, he should probably be moved to the bullpen or DFAed.

That's an interesting comment. Players like Weeks who people kept saying is loaded with potential were more than willing to give him a chance year in and year out. Yet Parra has already shown he can be good, something Weeks has never done (other than a week or two a year) and quickly comments like yours are brought up. We need young arms with potential to be a #1-3, we have at least a #3 in Parra. If he struggles next year we go from there, but for starters he remains OUR SP.

[Invader3K]

Oh, don't get me wrong...I think you have to look at him as part of the rotation for next year. I'm just saying that if 2010 is a repeat of '09 for him, you have to probably think about cutting your losses with him.

 

And I've been far from the Rickie Weeks fan wagon for a long time.

[TCSM]

Oh, don't get me wrong...I think you have to look at him as part of the rotation for next year. I'm just saying that if 2010 is a repeat of '09 for him, you have to probably think about cutting your losses with him.

 

And I've been far from the Rickie Weeks fan wagon for a long time.

Then I agree with you Invader.