Macha and his players not on same page? (Latest: Macha to return with 2011 club option)

[joepepsi]

Brewers average 4.74 runs per game. When Looper starts they average 5.6. That doesn't seem like "incredible run support" compared the team's overall average runs per game. 13 of his 30 starts have been QS. Another 5 starts he went 6 or 7 innings allowing 4 runs. Hardly overpowering success I admit, but he has pitched well enough in 18 of his starts to win with this offense. He's had just two starts all year where he failed to pitch 5 innings.

 

This team doesn't have the pitching depth or health to let him walk away. In his last 15 starts he's 8-7, 4.40 ERA. That's what the team was hoping for when they signed him. He should end up with 33-34 starts and 190+ innings. You can complain that's not worth the extra $5.5 million for next year, but who you gonna get that will turn in this kind of performance for less? and in a one year deal?

 

It's quite likely he'll turn down the option and end up somewhere with a 2 year deal in the $10-11 million range.

[Nottso]

Macha's lineup decisions have left me scratching my head as much as, if not more so, than Yost's pitching decisions. I wouldn't be at all upset if her were let go. I truely believe him to be a detriment to this very young tream of emerging talent.

[logan82]

Macha also used the running game as an example, saying some players wanted to run more freely. But when given the green light during the last series in Pittsburgh, the team ran into outs in the first inning of all three games with Prince Fielder looming in the order. The Brewers were swept in that series, pretty much dashing their postseason dreams. Link

Sounds like Macha just won't let they guys run and hasn't except for one series this season.

[jeffy]

That's good because they are bad at baserunning, for the most part. It looks like, aside from the Cubs, they are the worst in the league in SB success rate.

[logan82]

We have players that are good base stealers. Not letting them steal all year probably made them a little rusty. Giving the guys 3 games to prove they can steal bases, not giving the bench players at-bats unless they perform, using player vs pitcher stats. It is like everything Macha does. He doesn't look at the big picture. He looks at a very small window and makes a under-informed decision. Either that or he makes a decision and picks out stats that support it.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think he has the philosophy to look at someone who will be a bit outside the box, like a Bobby Valentine or Tony LaRussa type guy.

 

I always felt Yost was very similar to LaRussa. Both hit their pitchers 8th at times and did unconventional moves fairly regularly. Most seemed to think Yost did so too regularly.

 

6.5 million for a #4 type with a 5-ish E.R.A. isn't really overpaying.

 

His career ERA is much closer to 4 than 4 and he isn't at 5 this year so I don't think it's a fair comment to say he is a 5ish ERA pitcher.

 

Looper has a high earned run average (4.77)

 

Again how is this high? It isn't low but to me high is in the 5's not the mid to upper 4's. That is pretty much what $6 million gets you on the open market for a pitcher who isn't coming off an injury or really bad year. It is also what you would have to pay for any other one who is out there next year. If the economy is better that price will look cheap by comparison.

 

I've stayed away from criticizing Macha because as a Yost fan (even more so after seeing the alternative) I didn't want to appear like sour grapes. I do think his use of the bench is abysmal and I do worry about his seemingly cool relationship with players. Not that I think they need to love him but they do need to respect him. Not so sure that is the case.

[jeffy]

It seems to me that LaRussa is much quicker to change pitchers that Yost was. I've thought that Macha makes changes quicker and is also much more willing to make a change in the middle of an inning than Yost ever was...in those ways, I'd say I see Macha as more Larussian than Yost was. Yost was very much into defined roles (or innings, actually) for pitchers. I don't pay enough attention to other teams to know if LaRussa does that or not, but I am inclined to guess that he does not.

[trwi7]

His career ERA is much closer to 4 than 4 and he isn't at 5 this year so I don't think it's a fair comment to say he is a 5ish ERA pitcher.

He was also in the bullpen most of those years. His ERA is 4.64 as a starter.

 

As far as that a high 4 ERA pitcher pretty much getting $6M on the open market. If that were true then how come he only got $4.75M with a mutual option coming off a 199 IP, 4.16 ERA season? There is absolutely no reason and no justification for the Brewers to bring him back. Now if he really does want to come back here, then he can come back for less, but it's ridiculous to just settle for $6M of mediocrity.

[Invader3K]

it's ridiculous to just settle for $6M of mediocrity.

 

I agree with that 100%, and that's what I was getting at earlier. If he'd come back for like $2-3 million, I'd be fine with that, otherwise let him walk. I mean, can't a guy like Chris Cody or Narveson replace him and give similar production?

 

This team needs to save money any way they can to pay for actual good pitching, and paying $6 million to Looper would hinder that enough.

[DuWayne Steurer]

it's ridiculous to just settle for $6M of mediocrity.

 

I agree with that 100%, and that's what I was getting at earlier. If he'd come back for like $2-3 million, I'd be fine with that, otherwise let him walk. I mean, can't a guy like Chris Cody or Narveson replace him and give similar production?

 

This team needs to save money any way they can to pay for actual good pitching, and paying $6 million to Looper would hinder that enough.

Cody = Burns. Narveson = Burns.

 

Cody or Narveson or Burns <<< Looper.

 

As mediocre as Looper is, swapping him out with a 4A starter to save a few million dollars isn't going to help, it's going to hurt.

[Ennder]

I agree with that 100%, and that's what I was getting at earlier. If he'd come back for like $2-3 million, I'd be fine with that, otherwise let him walk. I mean, can't a guy like Chris Cody or Narveson replace him and give similar production?

 

No, guys like Cody and Narveson replaced Bush and Suppan and that is why the rotation was the worst in the league. I don't know if we should pay Looper $6M or not, but his value is certainly over $2-3M on the open market.

[Postseason2006]

Bringing Looper back at $6 million reassures the Brewers of no improvement to what they had this year as starters again.

[MJLiverock]

Bush has pitched like a replacement level pitcher or worse this season so it isn't like losing him and replacing him with Burns or Narveson produced much different results. I just don't buy into the injuries derailed the pitching staff argument. The Brewers staff just wasn't very good. Bush and Suppan are not aces or even #3 pitchers, a team shouldn't have this much trouble because they lost a guy with a 5.88 ERA and a guy with a 4.87 ERA. Neither of whom pitch deep into games.

 

Say what you want about ERA but it does measure how many runs they gave up this year which is all that really matters when trying to win games and they gave up a lot of runs. Both guys give up a lot of HR's, don't K many, and allow a lot of hits. Suppan adds in a lot of walks as well. Having these two all season wouldn't have made much difference in the final results and if the rotation is the same next year there is no reason to believe the team will be much different. Fans can hope Gallardo and Parra improve, but with Bush, Suppan, and Looper they are what they are, average when things go right, below average quite often.

[joepepsi]

MJL, I agree with you about ERA, but I don't agree Bush has been a replacement level pitcher this year. He had a 4.58 ERA before he took a hit on his pitching arm. The ERA ballooned when he tried to pitch through the injury. Admittedly he wasn't sharp yesterday, but his last 3 starts he's posted a 3.20 ERA.

 

Since coming off the DL Suppan's ERA is 3.21.

 

I think it's pretty clear the problems this season revolve around Bush and Soup missing a month plus in the middle of summer, Parra' ERA balloning by over 2 runs from last year, and the lack of pitching depth to address these issues.

[MJLiverock]

I agree joepepsi that they both have samples where they do fine, but they also have samples where they are horrible. I just can't pick and choose the good months and ignore the bad ones so I used the whole season. Even Mike Burns had good starts.

 

Bush has been over 5 with his ERA 2 out of the last 3 years. He gives up HR's and his walk totals have been climbing since his one year early (2006) in his Brewer career that gave everyone hope he was going to blossom into a much better pitcher. He isn't the worst pitcher in baseball by any means but the results haven't been that great if the bad months or starts aren't cherry picked out. There always seems to be a litany of excuses about Bush's actual on the field results. Over his career his ERA+ is 97, a slightly below averge pitcher who has been trending in the wrong direction since 2006 with his K rate, BB rate, and HR rate.

[Ennder]

I agree joepepsi that they both have samples where they do fine, but they also have samples where they are horrible. I just can't pick and choose the good months and ignore the bad ones so I used the whole season

 

Sure but ignoring the fact the bad months were specifically related to an injury just seems silly. There is no reason to expect Bush to have an ERA over 5 next season given what he has done in his career. You just have to realize that all of these marginal types are going to see their ERA jump all over the place because it is just a very volatile stat. A 4.50 ERA true talent pitcher is going to have seasons with an ERA over 5 multiple times in their career.

[Invader3K]

I'm all for bringing Bush back and not Looper (if it's a choice between the two).

 

Barring some kind of unforeseeable trade, it's a forgone conclusion that Gallardo, Bush, Parra, and Suppan will be in the rotation to start next season. That leaves one spot to improve the starting pitching, realistically. I would like to see the Brewers save a good chunk of salary by not bringing back guys like Looper, Cameron, & Kendall, and go out and get a real #1/2 type starter, either through trade or FA signing.

 

We have to remember that Suppan still makes a ton of money next year, they will still be paying a good chunk of Bill Hall's salary, and who knows what we have in Riske. Fielder's salary goes up, and others are due for raises, I believe. We can't waste money on a very mediocre starter like Looper if we hope to improve the rotation at all.

[Thurston Fluff]

He was also in the bullpen most of those years. His ERA is 4.64 as a starter.

 

That is not bad for a guy who stays healthy and pitches 180+ innings a year. I don' tthink you find that on the open market for much less than we would ahve to pay him.

 

As far as that a high 4 ERA pitcher pretty much getting $6M on the open market. If that were true then how come he only got $4.75M with a mutual option coming off a 199 IP, 4.16 ERA season? There is absolutely no reason and no justification for the Brewers to bring him back. Now if he really does want to come back here, then he can come back for less, but it's ridiculous to just settle for $6M of mediocrity

 

It was a very unusual FA year last year. It was the first time in a long time where the market favored the teams more than the players. To expect that to happen again is risky to say the least. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Looper decline the option if he can and test the market once again. It is more than likely to be a better market for the players this season than last.

[mletto157]

You know what... If all of our pitchers pitched like their career averages, and none got hurt - we would be very realistically in the playoff hunt right now, period. I would even say that based on what's available and what will for sure be on our team, I would be OK with starting next year with the same 5 starters. Our biggest problem was depth. We need to have more depth in the rotation. Maybe in gathering depth, we push Suppan out of the rotation to the long man in the pen? Who knows? If we had decent depth we would be in a much better position this year, and that's what we need to focus on for next year. Why did they keep Parra up so long before sending him down to work on stuff? Because we didn't have anyone better to replace him... If we had quality depth, we replace him earlier... we also are able to better handle injuries. Our starting 5 wasn't the main problem, it was #6-8 starters that killed us.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree with that, mletto, if the goal is to be a playoff contender. If all 5 starters are healthy, I could see a team slightly over .500. But if you want a team that can seriously contend for World Series rings, then those 5 won't get it done. Sure, you can add depth to the rotation, but that doesn't get you to the promised land. Not when your "ace" is no better than the top 3 starters for many of the true contenders.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think everyone agrees that they have to bring in a starter via trade or FA if not 2. That guy will have one of 5 slots. They can conceivably bring back all 5 guys from this year, but at least one would have to pitch out of the pen assuming all started the year healthy. Now one time mediocre starters can make very serviceable relief pitchers. Claudio Vargas is a prime example right now. The question is do you want to pay a premium for guys that are just as likely to be middle relievers because they had recently been starters. They don't have a choice with Suppan, but they do with Looper.

 

Bringing back all 5 current starters and expecting anything different than what happened this year is the definition of insanity (doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result).

[MJLiverock]

The Brewers are 11.5 games out of the wild card, to really be "in contention" they would have to be 8 games better than they are to be tied with the Giants at 3.5 games out of the wildcard.

 

In the 16 games started by Villanueva (1-4), Burns (4-4), Mcclung (1-1) and Narveson (1-0), the Brewers are 7-9. I don't see how replacing their starts with more Bush and Suppan would have resulted in an eight game improvement over the actual results. You could argue the bullpen would have been better off but Suppan and Bush wouldn't have saved many innings either. A team is always going to have to rely on a 6th starter somewhere in the season and when these guys were called on the results really weren't any different than what was produced by Bush and Suppan.

 

This pitching staff just isn't that good to being with even if Bush and Suppan pitch all year which was why most non Brewer fan pre season picks had them around .500 and picked for third or worse. Despite the hope of fans some here had them below .500 and were ridiculed by those predicting 87+ wins. I think it is Brewer goggles that produces these 87-90 wins and playoff contender ideas with this staff as constructed. Overly optimistic expectations for Parra and Gallardo coupled with 3 mediocre pitchers in Bush, Suppan, and Looper was too much for me to buy into this contender idea.

[mletto157]

True JB... but if you expect both Bush and Suppan to get hurt again and pitch poorly because of it; expect Parra to have an ERA as bad as this year (which was very luck driven); expect Looper to give up as many HR as he did this year; expect our AAA depth to be just as bad; etc... I think that might be more insane than expecting them to regress back to their mean seasons respectively - and in some cases get better with experience (speaking of the young guys, AA pitchers, and AAA pitchers).

[Thurston Fluff]

This pitching staff just isn't that good to being with even if Bush and Suppan pitch all year

 

They were in or near first place all season until Bush and Soup got hurt. They had the most quality starts of any team in baseball during that time. When those two got hurt the pitchers who replaced them routinely failed to get past the 5th inning. That lead to a strain on the bullpen which lead to a total meltdown fthe staff. The problem wasn't the rotation as it was constructed that killed the Brewers as much as it was the lack of depth. The first half of the season showed those five could be good enough to contend. Those of us who thought this team could contend thought so on the condition we got a little lucky with injuries in the rotation. That didn't happen and the result was predictable. As was the result of sub par ST Louis team performance before they got their injured players back. Many of those who thought the Brewer would have been where they are thought so because they didn't feel Soup, Bush and Looper would be good enough to keep the team in games not that they didn't have enough depth in the minors to cover injury. In that respect they were as wrong as we were for thinking the staff would stay healthy.

[mletto157]

But MJ, look at that craziness. All 16 of those games had the starting pitcher determine the outcome of the game. That means they were either serviceable enough to win (44% of the time) or they were so bad that our offense had no chance to come back (56% of the time). If this is true, that means that the majority of the time they started games, they got shelled. Most likely that means they were pulled out by or before the 5th inning. That's a huge tax on your bullpen, especially since almost all of these starts happened in the same month or two period. (Sorry, I can't check the actual statistics of this, all sports sites are blocked at work - somehow this forum fell through the cracks).