Casey McGehee and his future

[SoCalBrewfan]

For the second time, MLEs are not proprietary. Some methods of projecting *future* performance are, but the basic MLE method has been out in the public realm for over 20 years. Different places will use slightly different calculations, but the basic method is pretty straightforward.

 

See, for example:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/czerny/articles/calculatingMLEs.htm

[wibadgers23]

According to TH, McGehee will get the majority of the starts the rest of the way and Macha says that "Gamel will get a couple of games." McGehee has had a great season, but it's going to stink watching Gamel ride the bench the rest of the season.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/57827077.html

[logan82]

Asked right now who might have the edge at third base for 2010, Macha said, "I think right now, McGehee might have the upper hand."

I think I am going to be ill. and not in a good way.

[nate82]

I don't know why they don't just let Gamel play RF for a bit. It is not like we are playing for a pennant here. I believe both Gamel or McGehee could play a corner OF spot. Gamel could probably play RF better than McGehee could though. Gamel is athletic enough where he could play a corner OF spot and switch from the IF to the OF like Braun and Hall did. I don't even see a problem playing Gamel in RF for the rest of the year platooning with Hart when he comes back. It would give Gamel more of an opportunity to see MLB pitching and it would help ease him into a starting role in RF in 2010. A lineup with both McGehee and Gamel in it should be good enough. I would rather see Gamel in the #2 spot next year than Hart in the 6th or #2 spot.

 

1. Weeks

2. Gamel

3. Braun

4. Fielder

5. McGehee

6. Cameron

7. Rivera

8. Escobar

 

That right there should be the opening day lineup for 2010 and the lineup for the rest of this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is just 100% proof positive to me that Macha needs to go this offseason. You can't ask a GM, who already has a really tough job, to try to construct a roster around the idiotic decisions his manager will make. Although, ultimately the GM gets to hire & fire his manager, so who knows.

 

We are out of the race, Ken. Stop being an idiot.

[TheCrew07]

Asked right now who might have the edge at third base for 2010, Macha said, "I think right now, McGehee might have the upper hand."

I think I am going to be ill. and not in a good way.

I was done with Macha a while ago, I'm ready for him to be gone. If a player doesn't take off and hit from the get go it doesn't appear that Macha is going to give him a fair chance to earn a job. How can he be projecting next year's lineup already? It might appear that I don't like Melvin as well, but that's not the case, I just wanted him to be more aggressive going after pitching talent. Hopefully Macha is fired this off season, if not then I'll be hoping that McGehee/Hardy get packaged for pitching so Macha is forced to play some of the young kids.

 

I would hope that Kendell doesn't get resigned either so Macha isn't tempted to run him out there every 4 out of 5 days

[Invader3K]

I don't get how they could possibly be "leaning" towards McGehee at this point for next year. Really, other than a couple key positions, most of the roster for next season should be up in the air at this point. I like Casey McGehee, but if they consider him set in stone for 3B next season, that's just idiotic.

[trwi7]

I guess if a 26 year old claimed off waivers player in the offseason has a good 300 at bats in his first year with the team, then he gets the job over the 24 year old who is one of the top prospects in the game. It makes total sense if you think about after smacking yourself.

[Teatoe993]

My only thought is maybe management is trying to pad Casey's stats to increase his value come trade time. If this is not so, and Casey is not traded, consider me very frustrated in Ken Macha.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ken, you're Macha-n me crazy! This guy has to go -- he is a liability the Brewers cannot afford. It's very clear to me that he sees nothing wrong with completely screwing the development (yes, even moreso than he's already done) of the organization's top prospect.

[piccione88]

Macha cant start McGehee over Gamel, if he is not on the team. It is a shame that the Brewers cant have a deep bench because Macha has absolutley no patience with young players.

[PrinceEatMeat]

To be fair to McGehee, he is putting up rookie of the year numbers. He now leads all NL rookies in RBI.

[BrewCrewForever]

1. Weeks
2. Gamel
3. Braun
4. Fielder
5. McGehee
6. Cameron
7. Rivera
8. Escobar

 

I got to say nate82, that lineup is pretty decent. I kind of like it.

[derflotr]

Look guys, I like Mat Gamel like the rest of you, but he didn't have eye-popping numbers offensively at AAA this season, especially in the 2nd half, and he doesn't have the defense to hang his hat on. When I look from outside the Brewers orb I live in I look at Mat Gamel and I'm not seeing a "top prospect in the game". Casey McGehee is putting up very good numbers right now at the ML level. I don't understand this bounty for Ken Macha's head because he's playing a guy who's a rookie of the year candidate. He's still managing to win and I'm disappointed everyone's so upset about that. I love watching young players just to see what they're like after hearing about them for so long in the minor leagues, honestly - but I respect that he's still trying to win games and I have to imagine the players in that clubhouse respect that.

 

 

 

I don't think giving Mat Gamel a break for a while with a few starts here and there is going to completely ruin his development. I personally believe they're already comfortable with the idea of Mat starting at 3B next year, so what's wrong with playing the hot hand in McGehee? Mat and Casey will both be in trade conversations and the best way to increase the return is if McGehee continues to play well. As a previous poster alluded to it's unfair to immediately write off McGehee's season as a fluke because he's the old, grisled 26 year-old fringe major leaguer who's just had a nice BABIP this season. I wrote him off much earlier this season and I feel dead wrong now.

 

 

 

I consider this a great problem to have and I while I understand some will be frustrated by it I don't understand why anyone would be blowing their lid over it.

[PeaveyFury]

I think it's more a case of seeing whether Casey can continue his numbers to bolster his potential trade value or see if the organization thinks this is a fluke or not. What they do with Casey is going to be one of the biggest decisions of the off season. Yes, Gamel needs to get some AB's, but they need to be certain of what they're going to do with a guy that is having a Rookie of the Year type campaign as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't get how they could possibly be "leaning" towards McGehee at this point for next year. Really, other than a couple key positions, most of the roster for next season should be up in the air at this point. I like Casey McGehee, but if they consider him set in stone for 3B next season, that's just idiotic.

 

No, it's idiotic not to reward performance over potential.

[stoutdude04]

No, it's idiotic not to reward performance over potential.

Didnt we reward Wes Helms for his performance?

[Ennder]

Helms had a .780 OPS his 'big year' for us so not sure it is a valid comparison. His career OPS is .744 so not like the .780 was way out of control. He also had very ugly secondary numbers while McGehee is putting up respectable k/bb etc. Even Hall's big years looked extremely flukey, the one year was totally babip driven and the other was a huge spike in HR/FB that wasn't likely to be sustainable.

 

I like McGehee's chances of staying productive better than Hall or Helms. I still want to give Gamel a chance though and I won't be surprised if this is McGehee's career year, I just don't think it is fair to pull out that comparison.

[Invader3K]

McGehee has been a legimitate ROY candidate. I think some here are too quick to trade him off. Yes, it could be a career year, but there's no guarantee that Gamel is necessarily going to hit better than Casey has been, either. Who knows, maybe there will be a place for both next season, if Hart and Hardy both get traded?

[homer]

Ennder,

Is there any stat that explains McGehee's power spike? It seems to have come out of nowhere.

[logan82]

McGehee has a higher than expected BABIP this year as well. It is currently reasonable, but his second half splits look more like what we should expect going forward than his first half.

[Invader3K]

In the second half of this season, he's batting over .280 with an OPS over .850. He's slugging around .500. This team has been dying for a legit #5 hitter for a long time, and he's been filling the need quite nicely. I'll take that. I know many on this board are sheepish about him because of Hall's rapid decline, but just because Hall fell into the cellar, doesn't mean McGehee will.

[trwi7]

We're sheepish because he never had a year close to this good in the minors and he has a .330 BABIP. It has nothing to do with Hall.

[Ennder]

Ennder,

Is there any stat that explains McGehee's power spike? It seems to have come out of nowhere.

 

Not really, that is likely to just regress. I don't think he is going to be an .890 OPS player every year. I just don't think he'll fall off completely like Helms/Hall either. He has a solid foundation in the plate discipline areas that suggest he'll stay at least adequate with the bat is all I was saying.

[logan82]

We are sheepish because his previous best year at any level was a .776 OPS at AA in 2005. His next best was .774 in his 3rd year at AAA. The rest of his seasons are all .749 or lower with a career .741. He has exceeded that by 150 points of OPS. I won't rule out that he has matured, but I think predicting an OPS .850 or over would be very optimistic. He did have ok OBP's in the minors after his first year. Link