Casey McGehee and his future

[JimH5]

I would think he's the starter at 3B to start the season. Gamel has been a big disappointment, and even if he does turn it around, McGehee's value doesn't go down. You can always trade him then. . .

 

I see him as a Ty Wigginton type, though even if that's the high end, maybe someone like Chris Sabo.

[Hate those Rodents]

I don't think we can trade McGehee and have him turn out to be an all-star any more than we can trade Gamel and have him turn out to be an all-star. Hopefully, after next year, we can predict all-star status for one of the two and can sell high on the other. As someone critcial of DM for not selling high in the past, I fully realize I might be setting myself up to eat my words here. But I think we have to know we have an answer at third for the next 5-6 years in one of these two for sure before we move the other.

[GAME05]

i wonder if McGehee or Gamel has the higher value to other GMs. if Gamel does, maybe it might be best to hold onto McGehee for 2010 and trade Gamel. if McGehee busts in 2010, then we've got Heether to develop as the future at the position.

[pete]

Two things to consider:

 

One, not only can Casey play 3d, 2d and 1st, but emergency catcher - that means that the manager's psyche is okay with PHing the backup catcher, hopefully Salome; and two, there has to be a backup SS. That means that either Counsell or Heether has to be on the team unless something more radical is done. Counsell has been amazingly valuable and it wouldn't surprise me if he has another good year, but the roster spots are tricky.

[dadofandrew]

The Brewers will not pay Lopez $5-6M to sit on the bench, if he accepts arby, he'll be starting.

[twobrewers]

The Brewers will not pay Lopez $5-6M to sit on the bench

Two years ago they were paying Counsell $3.4M to sit on the bench.

 

I agree with you. But $1.4M isn't that big of a difference for a much better player. I believe Doug learned how valuable bench players can be this year - and the difficulties of plugging rookies into that role. (Heether)

[pete]

or finding lead off hitters

[endaround]

The Brewers will not pay Lopez $5-6M to sit on the bench, if he accepts arby, he'll be starting.

 

Bill Hall is waiving to you

[piccione88]

endaround wrote:

 

Bill Hall is waiving to you

The Brewers did not give Bill Hall that contract with the intention of him sitting on the bench though. As for Casey McGehee, looking at his minor league numbers I dont think it is realistic to assume he will have another 800 OPS season in 2010. McGehee is most likely a very nice right handed utility player making the league minimum, which still makes him a valuable player. Could he repeat this season again next year? Yes, and he could also easily go the other way and regress back to his pre-2009 numbers.

 

There are a few teams out there that are going to be looking for a cheap option at third, or even second base. McGehee is worth more to those teams, than he is to the Brewers who have multiple options throughout the infield. To me if the Brewers can get a good pitcher for McGehee it is a no brainer.

[pete]

Are his numbers last year in AAA really all that different?

[piccione88]

Are his numbers last year in AAA really all that different?

McGehee's power numbers are much higher this year than they were in any of his previous years in the minor leagues. His ISO power is 76 points higher this year in Milwaukee than in Iowa. If you compare his numbers this year to his MLE last year, which was his second best minor league season, is where the real big differential is. McGehee's 2008 MLE for Milwaukee was 244/288/341, compare that with his 2009 numbers in Milwaukee of 295/.356/.504, and the difference is huge.

 

I dont think that McGehee is really a 629 OPS hitter, but he also is not a guy that is going to OPS over 850 again. I expect that if McGehee was to start next year he could produce a line of 270/320/410. Which is a respectable enough line from a major league third baseman. The Brewers have a better starting option in Gamel though, we also have Adam Heether who could slide into McGehee's role, and also give us a right handed option at shortstop, without losing much offensivley. That is why McGehee is such a great trading chip, he can start for a few teams, makes the minimum, and we would not lose much production from trading him.

[TooLiveBrew]

You don't clear out the 3B position to make way for a journeyman who's had one good year. While McGehee has obviously been great this season, Mat Gamel has been a top prospect for a long time now, and has even hit the ball well recently. If Gamel isn't the starting 3B next season, this organization will have either made a huge mistake, or will be keeping Gamel in AAA to delay his eventual FA status... and calling Mat up to give him the everyday job in May or so.

[pete]

McGehee's 2008 MLE for Milwaukee was 244/288/341, compare that with his 2009 numbers in Milwaukee of 295/.356/.504, and the difference is huge.

 

I dont think that McGehee is really a 629 OPS hitter, but he also is not a guy that is going to OPS over 850 again.

 

MLE is a recent invention - there is no telling what reliability or validity it has and there probably never will be as its a commercial product. I find the notion that he would have had to put up an enormous stat line to produce the equivalent of the stat line he's producing this year far fetched. And he'll never hit the way he did this year based on his iso in the minors and mle? If only it were that simple.

[Never Outhustled]

I dont think that McGehee is really a 629 OPS hitter, but he also is not a guy that is going to OPS over 850 again.

While I'm completely shocked at what McGehee has done this year, to me the more shocking question is, why hasn't he produced before this?

 

His swing is short, balanced, and extremely quick. He seems to recognize pitches well, and he swing is too short to have holes. McGehhe's swing is far more fundamentally sound than Bill Hall's ever was. Hall had terrific bat speed, but needed it to overcome a long, unconventional swing.

 

Whats even more amazing is McGehee's been able to do this playing severly injured. I'm sure his stregnth in his injured leg is minimized by the knee injury.

 

Its possible a healthy McGehee could continue this production. He has no other history of injury. He is certainly a rare case, but in my opinion most scouts watching him would give him a very strong report, and thats more important to most GMs than his statistical past. Whether the GMs are right or wrong for this methodology I'm unsure.

 

Its very possible he's a very good player, but I still like Gamel as a possible great player, making McGehee a very logical trade chip.

[kramnoj]

MLE is a recent invention - there is no telling what reliability or validity it has and there probably never will be as its a commercial product.

 

It's not like MLEs are random numbers. They are based on past players, how they did in the minors and compares how they did in the majors. It's a blunt tool and should never be taken as an absolute authority, but they shouldn't be dismissed either. As far as commercial product, I don't understand what you mean. MLEs are freely available.

[TooLiveBrew]

While I'm completely shocked at what McGehee has done this year, to me the more shocking question is, why hasn't he produced before this? His swing is short, balanced, and extremely quick. He seems to recognize pitches well, and he swing is too short to have holes.

...

He is certainly a rare case, but in my opinion most scouts watching him would give him a very strong report

 

I agree completely here, X. The former is something I've wondered about all season long. The latter is what gives me hope the Brewers will find a good trade market for him.

[homer]

I doubt he approaches .850 OPS again but at the same time how do you explain a big power spike at age 26? I mean high batting average could be due to BABIP but how do you account for a higher HR rate? Steroids was the old answer to that question but it's not as cut and dried as that anymore.

[piccione88]

I agree that he will probably not hit around 300 very often, but he really has not been lucky this year. His career BABIP in the minors is .319, this year he has a BABIP of .315, so he is right in line with his career numbers.

[logan82]

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip
1st Half	53	33	163	146	24	48	11	1	6	27	0	0	15	25	.329	.387	.541	.928	79	7	0	0	2	1	1	.359
2nd Half	38	30	139	125	23	32	4	0	7	22	0	2	13	23	.256	.324	.456	.780	57	4	0	0	1	1	0	.260

 

Those are McGehee's splits this year. I was wondering how much a player had to do to change their batting line so I made up this imaginary batting line.

 

H 2B 3B HR BB K AB PA

165 45 2 35 100 75 550 650

 

I comes up to a line of

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BABIP

.300/.408/.580/.988/.295

 

Assuming 6 months in the season and 4 weeks

minus one hit a month

.289/.398/.569/.968/.282

minus one hit every other week

.278/.389/.558/.947/.268

minus one hit a week

.256/.371/.536/.907/.241

 

switching one walk a month to a hit

.308/.408/.585/.992/.305

one walk every other week to a hit

.315/.408/.589/.997/.314

one walk to a hit every week

.329/.408/.589/1.005/.332

 

What's this have to do with anything you ask. Not much really. I was just interested to see how the stats all interact. I wanted to see what a player would have to do to increase their OPS.

[JohnBriggs12]

With some of the comments here, you would think McGehee did nothing in the minors.

In fact, he went right to A ball as a 20 year old (he never played in Rookie ball) and wasn't overmatched. He hit .297 at AA at age 22. If the Brewers had a 22 year old 3B hit .297 with 72 RBI at Huntsville this year, he'd be considered a prospect. Last year he drove in 92 runs in 133 games. That was an indicator that he was a tough out with men on base. His power wasn't all that evident, but some guys take time to learn to pull the ball and when they do their HR totals increase. It's not like he's doing this at 30.

[nate82]

I wouldn't mind McGehee/Gamel in RF next year though I believe LF would be the best spot for McGehee. If McGehee would have to be traded along with Hardy I would be fine with that but I would rather see a lineup of Weeks, Gamel, Braun, Fielder, McGehee next year over a Weeks, Gamel, Braun, Fielder, Hart lineup.

 

I could see McGehee/Hart and Hardy being a package to bring in some pitching. A McGehee and Hardy trade to Baltimore would make a lot of sense for both teams. Baltimore needs a SS and a 3B McGehee and Hardy would both bring a lot of value to the Orioles and the Brewers would get a better pitcher putting McGehee in a trade along with Hardy.

[pete]

It's not like MLEs are random numbers. They are based on past players, how they did in the minors and compares how they did in the majors.

It apparently does much more than that. Exactly what is difficult to say.

 

It's a blunt tool and should never be taken as an absolute authority, but they shouldn't be dismissed either. As far as commercial product, I don't understand what you mean. MLEs are freely available.

 

Like I said, there is no way to measure its bluntness. Even describing it as blunt may be wrong as it implies that with sharpening it will perform its claimed function and that may not be true. Its fun for conversation, but I think it should be dismissed as more than that. Its commercial in that its a proprietary product. Is its methodology published somewhere that I'm not aware of?

[SoCalBrewfan]

MLEs were developed by Bill James in the 1980s. They are not proprietary. Maybe you are thinking of the PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus?

 

Historically speaking, MLEs correlate approximately as well with future major league performance as real major league seasons do. Usually this year's stats give you a good sense of next year's stats for most players, but JJ Hardy can tell you that it isn't always that simple. Real players have fluke years (good and bad), breakthroughs where they turn tools into performance, major injuries...those can all lead to big differences between projections and performance. All an MLE is trying to do is compute what a player's performance would have looked like in a tougher league, with different parks.

[kramnoj]

It apparently does much more than that.

 

What does this mean?

 

Like I said, there is no way to measure its bluntness

 

There's no way, or you don't want to spend the time to do so?

 

Its commercial in that its a proprietary product. Is its methodology published somewhere that I'm not aware of?

 

Commercial and propietary aren't synonyms. There are different versions of MLEs. As far as methodology goes, unless you are looking to improve it, the methodology isn't as important as the results. Other than individual cases, why do you believe that MLEs aren't useful?

 

As far as Casey goes, I do hope that he gets traded if he can bring in a decent return. I was looking through teams that could use a SS and 3B and was looking at the Twins. I don't know what they would be willing to give up, but I was looking at Baker. I doubt the Twins would be eager to give him up, but I think that improves both teams.

 

Edit: I didn't actually specify what I was thinking of in trading for Baker. I was thinking about Hardy and Casey. That's more than I would like to give up, so maybe the Brewers get a minor league pitcher back.

[pete]

If MLEs were simply outcomes versus outcomes compared, the formula would be simple and we'd know that formula.

 

 

 

Because its proprietary, we can't measure its effectiveness. Beyond that, an MLE is like knowing the result of a formula, the final number, and some of the variables in that formula, but not all including ones that can be large, like injuries or coaching. The number of possible variables is quite large. Someone like Casey could be a pull hitter and his home AAA park could have a high LF wall. That's just an example of a large number of possibilities.

 

 

 

Yes, the two words aren't synonyms. Proprietary means owned. That almost always means that its done for gain or hope of future gain. The one we're talking about is probably from Fangraphs and I'd guess its a commercial, proprietary product of STATS.

 

 

 

I don't follow the Twins closely, but I hear their fans complain about their lack of pitching including the minors. I don't think Casey will be all that valuable after one year. The people involved have probably seen numerous "one year wonders." The chance for him being a significantly lesser player greatly diminishes if he does it for another year and then there might be a bigger payoff, but that's a WAG.