How about some older pitchers?

[TooLiveBrew]

Instead of trying to divine which young pitchers might 'break out' in 2010, why not look at some older (not meaning guys like Big Unit old) pitchers for one or two year solutions? Perhaps pitchers who are in the last year of their contract, and their team wouldn't mind dumping their salaries, or moving them to make room in the rotation for an emerging youngster?

 

To me, it's pretty clear that the ideal for any addition of SPing would be seeing an impact in 2010. As others have observed, young pitchers might need some more time at AAA/AA. So instead of trying to find the next Jair Jurrgens, what about looking for the next Javier Vazquez? Some older SP candidates have been touched on as possible FA targets, but what about guys that won't be on the FA market?

 

I know he's not really old, but just so I post an example... the Reds' Aaron Harang. Of course he's been discussed a ton in this forum, so I hope this thread can get beyond him. But he's a solid example of what I'm after here -- pricey enough that his current team really wouldn't mind dealing him, obviously has talent, etc. I don't care so much about getting a veteran because he 'has a track record'/'is proven'... but imho this is a Moneyball-type strategy.

 

What's undervalued in the marketplace right now? Older players. With the success of many teams utilizing young, cost-controlled talent (Tampa Bay & our own Brewers are probably the most recent examples), it seems that's what every team's fanbase craves -- young, affordable players that can produce as well as or better than the grizzled veterans. While I understand that there's a reason older players aren't valued as highly (production of course tends to drop off), I wonder if the sheer fact that they aren't valued as much provides a team like Milwaukee the opportunity to come up with a quick-fix patch for the rotation. It seems playing this crapshoot has roughly equivalent odds to playing the crapshoot of "find the young, cost-controlled SP that will be a #2 or #3 type in 2010, whose team will trade him for J.J. Hardy".

 

Anyway, I'd really love to hear others' thoughts on this approach. I don't advocate it in general over targeting youth, and would still prefer to see a young SP magically acquired, but I think it might be more realistic to think about pricier veterans. Javy Vazquez & Aaron Harang are the only two examples I have at the moment, since this is basically flowing out of my brain right now. I will look at the league contracts to see if I can find some other examples/targets.

[trwi7]

I think Vazquez would cost a ton to acquire. I don't really want to give up the farm. I wouldn't mind Harang depending on the price. If we're going for older/injured pitchers. How about Smoltz, Hudson, Bedard, Penny or Escobar? One or two of those pitchers would be nice. Obviously there's some risk involved with all of them, but the rewards could be huge.

The concerning thing came from TH's chat today.

Steve, Milwaukee - Parra, Bush, Suppan, Looper. How many of them do you expect to be starters at the beginning of next year?

Tom Haudricourt - Suppan gets to come back because of his $12.5 million salary. I'm expecting the Brewers to exercise their $6 million option on Looper but it's a mutual option, so he could back out and go on the free agent market. Bush probably will be back at the end of the rotation. It wouldn't surprise me if Parra is packaged in a deal for a better starting pitcher but I know the Brewers are leery about giving up on him too soon after seeing Jorge De La Rosa get his act together in Colorado.

I don't really know how much Haudricourt knows about Melvin's thinking in the offseason, but what he's saying here would be a huge disappointment to me. Exercising Looper's option is just being okay with mediocrity to me. And I know Parra was a huge disappointment this year, but giving up a cheap, hard throwing lefty would be pretty disappointing.

Then there's this part.

Paul, Colgate - Tom, Who are some pitchers you see the brewers targeting in the offseason, both via trade and free agency?

Tom Haudricourt - Too early to talk about trades. As far as free agents go, they'll probably kick the tires on pitchers such as Joel Piniero, Jason Marquis and Doug Davis, a pitcher they tried to acquire during the season. I'm sure others will be looked at as well but the free agent class is not a tremendous one.

That would be disappointing as well. Those guys have no sustained track records of success. I'd like to sign guys who have a chance to be 2-3 starters, not guys who had their first good years in years or guys with declining peripherals. That to me is just hoping they can keep it up. Take a gamble on one of those guys I mentioned. It may not work, but it won't be because they're mediocre in the talent department and you could probably get all of those guys I listed on one year deals because they're either older or injured and trying to regain some value in the free agent market next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, here's the best I could do (beyond my first two examples) on a cursory look around Cot's Baseball Contracts:

 

 

Roy Halladay (TOR) -- signed through 2010

2010: $15.75M

 

Dan Haren (ARZ) -- signed through 2012

2010: $8.25M

2011: $12.75M

2012: $12.75M

2013: $15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout)

Brandon Webb (ARZ) -- signed through 2009

2010: $8.5M club option ($2M buyout)

** I'm pretty sure the buyout value is correct. It was established at $500K, and increased by $500K each time he finished in the top 5 of the NL Cy Young voting from '06-'09. Webb won the NL CY in 2006, and finished 2nd in both 2007 & 2008.

Jake Westbrook (CLE) -- signed through 2010

2010: $11M

 

Chris Young (SD) -- signed through 2010

2010: $6.25M

2011: $8.5M club option; can increase based on production

Kevin Millwood (TEX) -- signed through 2010

2010: $12M; limited no-trade clause

 

Gil Meche (KC) -- signed through 2011

2010: $12M

2011: $12M

 

 

Obviously Webb & Young have had major surgery on their pitching shoulders this year, so that's a big question. Westbrook's elbow is a concern too... here's a link to the latest I could find on his recovery -- sounds like his elbow ligament is doing well. Millwood's peripherals have slipped this season, and his low ERA is likely largely due to his .273 BABIP (contrasted with a career .299). He's a risk in that sense as well. Meche hasn't had a good 2009... basically, there are risks to just about anyone I've listed. However, that seems to be roughly par for the course when it comes to pitching.

 

I know that Haren would take a ton to acquire, and obviously Halladay (& probably to some extent Webb) wouldn't be cheap either. However, with Halladay only being under salary control for one season, coupled with the failure to deal him in 2009, perhaps Ricciardi (or whoever replaces him) would lower the asking price.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for the feedback, trwi.

 

 

I think Vazquez would cost a ton to acquire. I don't really want to give up the farm.

 

Yeah, he was more of an example of a move made last offseason that described what I had in mind here. I agree the Braves wouldn't want to part with him unless they got a knockout offer.

[endaround]

I really hope that Haudricort is guessing. I've heard him say it before, but there is no way the Brewers should pick up Looper's option. Davis wouldn't be a bad signing but it doesn't really do much unless he's the second pitcher acquired moving Suppan to the bullpen. Pinerio is going to be overpaid due to this year and Marquis is Looper V1.1.

 

Really the Brewers should let Kendall go, let Looper go, let Wheathers go and let McClung go and take that $16m and get something actually worthwhile.

[Invader3K]

Really the Brewers should let Kendall go, let Looper go, let Wheathers go and let McClung go and take that $16m and get something actually worthwhile.

 

This is the strategy I'd like to see. You can put Cameron in that category too. Enough of the "Let's retain guys because they're here and nice guys, even if we maybe have cheaper options in AAA" route.

[endaround]

Except your not going to get anything better than Cameron for the money he costs.

[Invader3K]

But perhaps something almost as good for much less...and use the savings on pitching. The Brewers have Bourgeois, Hart (arguably), Cain (granted, he's probably at least half a season away yet due to his injury), maybe even Weeks as potential center fielders. I'm probably forgetting a name or two. They could always swing a trade or sign a cheap free agent type to fill in the gap. I'd just hate to see the Brewers hamstrung to get pitching for next season because they're paying an aging vet like Cameron $8-10 million again.

[endaround]

Cameron has been as valuable as Mark Texeria this year. To be "hamstrung" is a weird way to put it. Cameron is a 4 win player.

[RockCoCougars]

Man, some of you guys are fervent Cameron supporters..

 

As far as the pitching goes, I think you have to go for Halliday next year. He can be had this offseason. You just have to give to get.

 

I still say probably actually the best option out there is Sheets. Yes, I know he's not coming back, but I want to know why. My guess is that his nose was out of joint being paid less than Suppan, and when the team didn't offer to extend him and went and got Sabathia that must have been the tipping point.

[Oldcity]

Not only is it crazy to suggest that the Brewers will/should bring back Looper, but I think it's equally crazy to suggest that Looper would turn down a 6 mil player option.

[JohnBriggs12]

I really hope that Haudricort is guessing. I've heard him say it before, but there is no way the Brewers should pick up Looper's option. Davis wouldn't be a bad signing but it doesn't really do much unless he's the second pitcher acquired moving Suppan to the bullpen. Pinerio is going to be overpaid due to this year and Marquis is Looper V1.1.

 

Really the Brewers should let Kendall go, let Looper go, let Wheathers go and let McClung go and take that $16m and get something actually worthwhile.

One thing that is predictable about Melvin is that he will focus on a weakness and attempt to correct it. In listening to Melvin the past month, every time he's spoken, he's mentioned the HR rate of the pitching staff.

 

That's why you can bet the farm he will be after both Marquis and Pineiro because between them, they have allowed just 19 HR this season. Of course the danger is he will overpay based on both guys having big years in 2009. But let's look a little closer. Pineiro was one of the best young pitchers in baseball when he came up with Seattle. Back then, he was far less of the extreme groundball pitcher he is today and more of a strikeout guy. After his first couple of really impressive seasons, he began to struggle, likely because he lost some velocity. Apparently with the help of Duncan, he's reinvented himself as an extreme groundball machine. While it's likely he will regress somewhat from his spectacular 09 results, it's still quite likely he'll be very effective keeping the ball in the park. Will he cost a lot? Yes. But if the Brewers were to sign him, it would serve the dual purpose of stregthening the Brewer staff and weakening the Cardinal staff.

 

In Marquis case, I think his success has more to do with some late arriving maturity on his part. He always had a very good stuff and a top sinker. But he was prone to concentration lapses and would let his pitches get up in the zone, and sinkerballs that don't sink get hit a long way and that probably explains how he can allow 35 HR one year with the Cards and just 12 a few years later with Colorado.

 

The other guy who could be out there that Melvin figures to pursue is Hudson if the Braves don't pick up his option. Pineiro and Marquis don't have the body of work that Hudson has but the 3 are very similar.

[804Sox]

I'd look at Meche and Milwood, among others.

 

The track record for pitchers moving from the AL to the NL over the past couple years has been amazing. Lee, Sabathia, Smoltz, Lowe, Padilla, Piniero, Vazquez, and Penny all come to mind, but I'm sure there are more. Also,even though there are probably several, I can't think of a pitcher who has pitched worse after a move from the AL to NL off the top of my head.

[nate82]

I wouldn't trade for a veteran pitcher unless it is for Halladay or Webb and I'm not so sure on Webb. Escobar should be a cheap upgrade over Looper, Bush, and Parra and is a veteran. Since Escobar has been injured for the past two years his contract won't be that long or that high. There is huge risk with Escobar, Lackey, and other older pitchers with injury especially with Escobar.

 

If the Brewers could get Escobar and Davis/Pineiro/Marquis for relatively cheap in free agency the rotation would be fixed. If Cameron is serious about coming back at a cheaper rate the Brewers have to jump all over that. If you can get a player like Cameron for below market you take that 1000 times out of 100 times.

 

Gallardo, Bush, and Parra should be in the rotation next year and those are locks. What the Brewers need is a #1 or #2 and a #3 or #4 type pitcher. I believe Escobar could be the #1 in Milwaukee pushing Gallardo to the #2 spot while Davis could be a #3 moving Bush to the #4 spot and having Parra at the #5 spot.

 

I don't see much in the trade market for the Brewers to get maybe Millwood or Meche could be had but the Royals never part with anyone until they are completely worthless to them. Maybe a Suppan for Meche deal could be worked out. The Royals would be saving $9.5m on that deal. Meche is owed $12m for the next two years while Suppan is only owed $12.5m next year and a $2m buy out the following year. It would make sense for the Royals to do that deal since the Royals won't be competing next year again and in 2011 they will have a lot of money coming off the books.

[SoCalBrewfan]

One thing that is predictable about Melvin is that he will focus on a weakness and attempt to correct it. In listening to Melvin the past month, every time he's spoken, he's mentioned the HR rate of the pitching staff.i/i]

 

Yeah, I tend to agree with that, though I don't know if that necessarily means Marquis or Piniero. Makes you think Looper might not be back as he's the worst offender...I thought that deal would be ok and I suppose it has been, but I'd rather put those dollars elsewhere going forward.

[trwi7]

Makes you think Looper might not be back as he's the worst offender...

I think it's very likely that the Brewers exercise Looper's option. Not only has Haudricourt mentioned that it's likely that his option is picked up, but McCalvy had this to say in a recent article.

 

The question mark is Looper, whose contract includes a mutual option for 2010. The team will likely exercise its half, but Looper could be tempted to seek a multiyear deal because the rest of the free-agent pitching market is extremely weak.

Link

 

It just seems like they like Looper as a back of the rotation innings eater and I doubt both beat writers for the team would write that if Melvin didn't give them some indication that they were planning on bringing Looper back.

[Invader3K]

Cameron has been as valuable as Mark Texeria this year.

 

Sorry, but I just do not believe that at all.

[endaround]

Ok its somewhat of an approximation but Texeria has been worth 39.8 runs above replacement and Cameron 38.7. Cameron is very good player that for some reason get treated as an average starter.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think there are many of us that rely on the naked eye as well as more traditional stats when determining a player's value. What we see watching every brewer game this year, and whay the more traditional stats indicate, is that Cameron is a good defensive player and a decent bat. But a statement as ludicrous as that one when comparing Cameron is just going to fuel the same tireless debate. Let's just keep it to pitching in this thread, since we know some people are diehard Cameron and/or Hardy fans and not turn this thread into that same debate.

[dadofandrew]

Looper has been the 2nd best SP, and he likely projects at about a 4.50ish ERA next year. For $6M, he's a bargain. There's so few SP's on the market, he might well get far more, especially for just a single year.

 

No one-year contract is going to hamstring a team, so $8-10M is not at all out of the question...worst case scenario, he's easily tradeable at $6M. I see the option picked up as well.

[trwi7]

worst case scenario, he's easily tradeable at $6M.

Wasn't Vargas supposed to be easily tradeable at like $3.5M? No team is going to pay $6M for Looper after the year he's had. Neither should the Brewers.

 

As far as being the second best SP. That's not really high praise since after Gallardo, the rotation has been crap.

[And That]

Since the deal for Looper was signed, I was under the impression that it was very likely one of two things would happen: either he'd pitch well and not exercise his side of the option, or pitch poorly and the Brewers would not exercise their side of the option. While he's pitched somewhere in between well and poor, he's pitched well enough that he should opt to throw his hat into the shallow pool of free agent pitchers this offseason. I would be suprised if the Brewers did not exercise their option on Looper, but at this point I'd be a little surprised if Looper exercised his option to stay with the team.

[twobrewers]

I'd imagine that Looper will have no problem finding a 2 year 10 million dollar contract. He might even get a 3 year 13 million dollar contract.

 

There is no reason for him not to opt out. His worst case scenario would be a 1 year deal around 6 million.

[TooLiveBrew]

Let's just keep it to pitching in this thread, since we know some people are diehard Cameron and/or Hardy fans and not turn this thread into that same debate

 

Bravo! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

I guess I still hold out hope that the Brewers will be able to add Halladay. Call me crazy... call me a dreamer...

 

I'm really not sure about Millwood. Yes, pitchers moving to the NL have done better, but I'm not sure what to make of his declining peripherals. Might just be a small-sample thing, might not. Maybe his skill is declining.

[trwi7]

His worst case scenario would be a 1 year deal around 6 million.

I disagree. The best he got last year was 1 year $4.75M with an option for $6M. Now he's coming off a bad year and he can expect 1 year $6M worst case scenario? Not buying it. And even if he could get that, it shouldn't be from the Brewers.