Plan - Involving Fielder - to Improve the 2010 Brewers

[HOF4canrake]

While I do have some contacts within MLB, it's almost impossible to get a true idea for what teams want and need in terms of both Major League talent and prospects. With that said, I thought I'd throw out an idea for improving next year's team. With some of this, I may only be including the bigger names in a trade - because as I mentioned - figuring out the value of prospects to each team is extremely difficult.

 

While I would hate to see Fielder go while the Brewers still hold his rights another year, this may be the best time to get big value for him.

 

Plan 1:

 

Fielder to Boston for Buchholz, Ellsbury and Bard or Bowden

Parra (whose value has declined, but still exists due to being LH, past success) + prospect to Washington for Dunn

Hardy to Baltimore for Luke Scott and Jake Arrieta

Assuming Atlanta doesn't pick up his $12 million option, sign Tim Hudson to 1-2 year deal depending on cost

Take a chance on one other cheaper FA pitcher such as Justin Duchscherer or Kelvim Escobar

 

 

That would set up...

 

C - Rivera

1B - Dunn

2B - Weeks

3B - Gamel

SS - Escobar

LF - Braun

CF - Ellsbury

RF - Scott

 

Bench:

IF Counsell

IF McGehee

OF Hart

OF Gerut

C Salome

 

Potential Pitcher Options (depending on trades, FA):

Gallardo - SP

Buchholz - SP

Bush - SP

Hudson - SP

Looper - SP/RP

Suppan - RP

Duchscherer - SP/RP

Escobar - SP

Suppan - RP

Hoffman - RP

Coffey - RP

Stetter - RP

Villanueva - RP

McClung - RP

Bard - RP

Bowden - SP/AAA

 

 

Any thoughts? Criticisms are more than welcome, just be gentle.

[twobrewers]

Fielder to Boston for Buchholz, Ellsbury and Bard or Bowden

I hate the idea of trading Fielder. His commitment to weight loss and defense this past season has been fantastic. I no longer fear signing him to a long term contract.

 

However, your entire scenario makes sense - but I am not sure it makes us any better. Seems to be a team pretty equal to this years? Also, I would imagine you would have to include a pretty good prospect to land Dunn.

[StearnsFTW]

I've endorsed this plan since last offseason.

This team needs to inject high-upside low-cost pitching, and the only way to do that is to trade Fielder. It'll be painful, but the thought of resigning him is pie in the sky. It's not going to happen.

The Hardy for Arietta part is a pipe dream though. No way they get Arietta by himself for JJ imo.

I like the thought process though.

[sbrylski]

While I would hate to see Fielder go while the Brewers still hold his rights another year

 

Two more years.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm in the camp of waiting to trade Fielder till after the 2010 season.

[JohnBriggs12]

If all it takes to get Dunn is Parra and a prospect, if I'm Boston, I go after him instead of giving up a lot more to get Fielder.

[nate82]

I would rather trade Fielder to the Rangers than to the Red Sox. Yes you probably won't get as many pitching prospects in return for Fielder from the Rangers as you would from the Red Sox but the Rangers do have someone the Brewers could really use and that is Justin Smoak.

 

Fielder to the Rangers for Smoak, Derek Holland, and Michael Main/Martin Perez. That is close to a Teixeira like haul that the Rangers got from the Braves.

 

Smoak would replace Fielder at 1B maybe not next year but the year after definitely. Holland would be in the rotation next year and Main or Perez will be available in 2011 or 2012 the earliest.

 

I doubt Fielder will get traded though.

[endaround]

Parra is way overpaying for Dunn.

[Invader3K]

How so? Maybe based on time under contract remaining, but Parra isn't looking like the premier young pitcher he was hyped to be. Dunn is basically guaranteed to put up 40 homers and have an OBP around .375 every single year. Yeah, his defense sucks, but you can work around that.

 

I'd rather trade for Dunn only if we're keeping Fielder, though. If you trade Fielder, I'd rather look for a younger, more long term, option.

[endaround]

Dunn's defense doesn't just suck, its nearly Braun at 3B bad. It makes him an average player paid slightly above what an average player make. And by all accounts he's now at bad at 1B as he is in the OF. Now if you have a DH waiting for him he could be worth something, but if your in the NL there are just too many better options.

[twobrewers]

According to Fangraphs - Dunn is -30.2 defensively. Fielder is -1.0. Dunn is worth 1.9 wins above replacement. Fielder is 5 wins above replacement. That is a $14 million dollar difference.

 

I can't believe Dunn is that bad. I'm not even mad - that just impressive.

[RockCoCougars]

I like all of the deals you proposed, though I'm not sure if the other teams would. I'm starting to get into the camp of trying to sign Prince long term again, but it they could get that from Boston, it would be a haul to say the least. Doubt if they would give that much up though. I'd try to work on Seattle again to see if they want to swap a King for a Prince, but doubt that would happen either. You just can't move Prince unless you are getting big time return though.

 

I wonder if Prince would bite on a 3 year extension in the $75 million range? Suppan will come of the books next year, and that offer would almost match what him and Prince would cost in 2010.

[TooLiveBrew]

I can't believe Dunn is that bad. I'm not even mad - that just impressive.

That cracked me up -- well played http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

I like the creativity in the OP, but have to agree with those critical of adding Dunn. Even though defensive stats can fluctuate quite a bit from year to year, it's relatively well-established that Dunn is a butcher-x-2 at any position.

 

Without adding exact targets, I really think the Brewers are going to be able to add some nice young SP with a package offer of Hardy+McGehee.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you're Boston and choosing between Dunn and Fielder, defense isn't going to matter one iota. Youkalis isn't going anywhere and he's at 1B at least as long as Lowell is under contract (through 2010). But with Ortiz signed at least through 2010 and Victor Martinez with a bargain option available to DH on days he doesn't catch, I don't think they are that interested in surrendering a lot for either Fielder or Dunn right now. After 2010, now that's a different matter. That's another reason the Brewers should hang on to Fielder another year. The Brewers will want and need more than one team bidding for his services to maximize his value. Another monster year like this one won't hurt his value either.

[HOF4canrake]

I do believe it'd be almost inconceivable for all of this to happen. The truth is, one trade in Major League Baseball is extremely difficult to complete, let alone a number of them.

 

I find it interesting on people's varying thoughts on Parra's value versus Dunn. This was why I prefaced the trade ideas with the reality that every scout, GM, etc. has their own values and philophies to go by, which makes finding trade partners all the more difficult.

 

I do know that Boston loves Fielder, and I would only give him up if they were surrendering a huge haul as the one I threw out there. According to one advanced midwest scout I speak with, if Boston misses the playoffs, they'd be more apt to make a move for Fielder because they have seen the impact Teixiera has had on New York (though he is a plus defender as well).

 

Another scout I talk to says the Orioles have had Hardy targeted for a while and believe he would fit perfectly for them. While I agree, considering Hardy's rough 2009, that Arrieta might be a stretch for Hardy, this scout says they would definitely be motivated to move him to acquire a "proven shortstop with pop," if they can obtain a talented, veteran starter...and the Orioles should have some money to spend.

 

Anyway, that's my two cents...it will be an interesting off-season to say the least.

[Roderick]

How so? Maybe based on time under contract remaining, but Parra isn't looking like the premier young pitcher he was hyped to be. Dunn is basically guaranteed to put up 40 homers and have an OBP around .375 every single year. Yeah, his defense sucks, but you can work around that.

Personally I wouldn't mind Dunn on my team, but it sure seems like Dunn has limited value to most the GMs in baseball or he wouldn't have lasted so long in free agency and then end up signing with Washington. Whether that has to do to his defensive positional limitations/DHing or something else I don't know.

[paul253]

If we trade Fielder this offseason to Texas, does anyone think they'd part with Justin Smoak (Nate mentioned it earlier in the thread)? If we can get Smoak and a top pitching prospect, I say go for it. 2 years of a top two offensive player in the NL for a team on the cusp of making the playoffs, without them having to give up any major league talent......its possible. It would solve our first base problem for years. Next season might be forgetful, but the year after that who knows. You'd have the Riske, Hall, and Suppan deals off the books. The core of the team (Braun, Escobar, Salome/Lucroy, Gamel) would still be there. Smoak would probably be ready to play first. Is this a realistic asking price? Would Texas be interested in Fielder?

[Invader3K]

Personally I wouldn't mind Dunn on my team, but it sure seems like Dunn has limited value to most the GMs in baseball or he wouldn't have lasted so long in free agency and then end up signing with Washington. Whether that has to do to his defensive positional limitations/DHing or something else I don't know.

 

I think that was one of those cases we saw much of last off-season, where a guy was sitting out there waiting for money that simply wasn't on the table due to the poor economy.

[logan82]

Trading Parra makes very little sense to me. He is exactly the young, high upside type pitcher everybody wants to acquire. We are unlikely to trade for a guy like him without overpaying.

[Invader3K]

Parra isn't all that young anymore, and his "potential upside" seems to be shrinking with every poor start he puts up. I'm not necessarily advocating that the Brewers trade the guy, but I think people need to be realistic and trim back their expectations of Manny Parra accordingly.

[trwi7]

Parra isn't all that young anymore, and his "potential upside" seems to be shrinking with every poor start he puts up. I'm not necessarily advocating that the Brewers trade the guy, but I think people need to be realistic and trim back their expectations of Manny Parra accordingly.

 

Exactly how I feel. I probably wouldn't trade him because he's cheap and at the very least is a decent-ish back of the rotation guy that would prevent us from spending wasting money on the Looper's of the world. But he's going to be 27 in a few months. There's not much potential left in there.

[paul253]

Parra has had one bad season. Why give up on him now? His value is probably as low as its going to get and we desperately need pitching. Trading him makes no sense at all.

[endaround]

Keep in mind Cliff Lee didn't become "Cliff Lee Cy Young Pitcher" until age 30. Pitcher's can take time to develop. Which is why if you trade Fielder for pitching you might as well go for the full rebuild because you likely pushing eveything back at least 1 year while the pitcher's adjust to MLB.

[madrx]

I think the question becomes whether or not to go into a full rebuilding mode. If we think we can't get the pitching to truly contend next year, then it would be wise to trade Prince while his value is highest. It also depends on how good we think the next wave of talent is going to be and when it will arrive.

 

In thinking about destinations for Prince, I don't see a great fit for next year. The points raised about Boston not needing him next year (although what is Mike Lowell's status, would Youkilis go to 3rd?), and Texas is said to be trying to cut payroll signinificantly due to ownership issues. The Angels could be an option if they don't want to resign Vlad or Abreu, but that's about the only fit I can think of currently.

[paul253]

Fielder is still relatively cheap for the production he brings. If you are going to maximize his value, you trade him this year as he has 2 years remaining on his contract. If you feel you can contend next year, you hold off. Only Melvin knows because only Melvin knows what he's going to do with the pitching. I think we all can agree that without a significant upgrade to the pitching staff, which isn't going to come from within, this team is basically a .500 team.

 

As far as teams....what about San Francisco? They are loaded with pitching and are hurting for offense. Maybe package Hardy and Fielder and get a package starting with Bumgarner.