Unrealistic Expectations for improving our team

[BrewCityUnit]

This has been bothering me for a while whether it is talking to my friends about the Brewers or reading posts on this site. A lot of negative things have been said about Doug Melvin and his approach to improving this team. Many people think he is just sitting on his hands waiting to see what happens and not putting much effort into improving this team, especially the pitching. The point of this thread is not to say that I like or dislike Melvin....the point is, I think fans have unrealistic expectations for who we can get and how we can get them, as much as that might hurt to hear.

No free agent in their prime is going to sign with the Brewers. Anybody hoping we are going to make a splash next year in the free agent market....I think you are going to be disappointed. It has never happened before, why would it happen now? If it was that easy, don't you think Melvin or any other GM the Brewers have had would have landed somebody by now. The only free agents we are going to sign are going to be guys looking for a 1 year deal to then get a better offer later or players at the end of their careers and we show them more love than other teams and maybe have to bid a little higher to lure them in. Milwaukee is not an attractive place for free agents to come and I don't think that will ever change.

The only other way to improve the club immediatly is by trades but again....if it was that easy don't you think Melvin would have done something other then what he did this year? The guys people want to trade are all players how don't have a lot of value. Everyone talks about selling high....what are some examples of great GM's who sold high on players and ended up making the right decision? We would have to give up a lot of young talent to truly recieve a difference maker. And how many fans would be happy with that. It's almost like the CC trade was bad for the fanbase in a way because it gives fans reasons to think that the Brewers could and should pull off a trade like that every summer.

I think we should all be very happy with what we have and the direction this franchise is heading. We are having a terrible season in many peoples minds but yet we are only 2 games under .500 and 8 games back in the wild card with 5 weeks to go. The only realistic way this team has a chance to continue down the path we are going (which is consistenly being a respectable franchise and relivant) is to hope our young talent continues to develop and we get a couple of veterans near the end of their careers who are going to contribute and when the time is right and the resources are available we make that big splash and land someone during the summer. To me Melvin has done a good job up to now and if people want to get rid of him....the grass isn't always greener on the other side. It would be a huge gamble to let someone with his success leave an organization that desperately needed him.

[dadofandrew]

Very well said. No one seems to understand that you can't clean out the farm system every year, you have to pick and choose.

 

I think it's funny people want to trade Parra, and then acquire a "young pitcher who is ready to contribute"...like you're going to find one better than Manny on the market. Much of the improvement in the pitching will come from within...someone goes from 4.70 to 4.30, for example, hope guys stay healthy and revert back to their career norms.

 

I'm sure Doug will bring in an additional arm or two, but it won't be Lackey...probably an arm or two in trade and a veteran FA who is coming off a poor season or an injury.

 

It also makes you look at solid performers differently...many made fun of Dave Riske, and yet, we've struggled to fill that spot (6th/7th inning) ever since he went down last year. A whole team made up of average/just below average pitchers would rank 9th/10th in the NL and be right in contention. You don't need several #1/2 SP's, but you can't have a whole rotation of #4/5 guys either.

[RockCoCougars]

Parra should have been traded when his value was at his peak. Despite 'hitting the wall' last year, he could have been a big piece in a deal for an established pitcher (Peavy for example). Now his value is basically zero. He's not getting any younger either... it looks like he may never "get it". Either that, or he'll be given away like DeLaRosa and flourish somewhere else.

 

If Melvin doesn't do something to solidify this staff (not by overpaying mediocrity) in the offseason, he should be fired. You have to give to get. If that means giving up Gamel, you do it. Obviously nothing will probably be done because of 'Soup's' contract. It would be nice if Sheets was an option, but I guess that bridge has been burned for whatever reason (still want to know the real story there).

 

Riske was far from solid last year. He went south mid year and almost single handedly cost the team the playoffs. Another bad signing from Melvin. Hopefully we never see him pitch for the team again. These are exactly the type of contracts that need to be avoided. Do not overpay mediocrity.

[mothershipconnection]

Parra should have been traded when his value was at his peak. Despite 'hitting the wall' last year, he could have been a big piece in a deal for an established pitcher (Peavy for example).

 

What about Braun, Gallardo, and Fielder? When should they have been traded away at their peak for an established player? You can't go back and look at every young player who tanks and say you should have traded them away, because then you also have to do that for the good players. Tell me about how we should have traded Prince away. We should invoke something about having and eating cake here.

[RockCoCougars]

What about Braun, Gallardo, and Fielder? When should they have been traded away at their peak for an established player? You can't go back and look at every young player who tanks and say you should have traded them away, because then you also have to do that for the good players. Tell me about how we should have traded Prince away. We should invoke something about having and eating cake here.

I've never been sold on Parra, and was completely surprised by his start last season. He's a little old to be a 'prospect', has major injury history, and folded like a tent down the stretch last year. I wanted to dump him in the offseason in the worst way to sell high. I couldn't believe that people honestly felt that he was a legit #2 starter, or #3 for that matter.

 

I will admit that I also wanted to trade Fielder in the offseason, but only if the team getting Fielder took Suppan with him. Who can blame me for that?

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think there's a danger if your GM gets obsessed with 'selling high'...you start to spin your wheels in a never-ending talent churn, like the recent A's have, or pretty much every Jim Bowden team. Melvin has done his share of the buy low / sell high stuff...Pods for example, or Overbay, or Danny Kolb. But at some point you have to identify guys as key players and stick with them through some struggles.

 

You might argue that Melvin has been too slow to reassess who was a key player and who was surplus (I tend to agree with that sentiment to a certain extent)...but I don't think Parra is a good example. Young pitchers with some upside are precious commodities in baseball, and Parra had a better pedigree than anyone on our team but Gallardo. This year is a big setback, but a guy like Parra is exactly who many are calling for Melvin to acquire.

[giffted1]

You hit the nail on the head, BCU.

 

The criticisms of Doug Melvin are always along the lines of he should have traded for X before they broke out and should have traded Y before they regressed. The thing is, of the many people with sentiment few if any were actually calling for these moves when they should have happened. Another favorite of mine is that he shouldn't have spent money on Suppan, Riske, Cameron, and Hall so we could make a splash in free agency. Essentially, the argument is that we shouldn't have added these bad contracts in the past (or a good one in the case of Cameron), so we could add one in the present (signing Derek Lowe or acquiring Scott Kazmir for example).

 

The reality is that we cannot expect to build a team through big trades and free agent acquisitions. We need to rely on the draft and trades for mid-tier prospects. Melvin has already made some moves of this type acquring guys like Chris Cody and Josh Butler. I'm certain will see similar moves this offseason involving someone like McGehee, Hart, or Hardy.

[Funketown]

RockCoCougars,

 

I just don't understand the ideology that the Brewers should have sold high on Parra. He was a good young pitcher with five seasons of club control left. Perhaps a trade would be logical if they needed young hitting, but how could Melvin have possibly upgraded his pitching by dealing Parra? Not only that, Parra did not look to be overvalued. All of his peripherals backed up his results, and his .337 BABIP and 13.5% HR/FB were heavily inflated. I won't argue that Parra hasn't been a disappointment this year, but his numbers are definitely inflated by a .368 BABIP. He hasn't been great, but he has been the Crew's 2nd best starter this year. His FIP, xFIP, and tRA for this season are 5.03, 4.76, and 5.53, respectively. In 2008, he was most definitely at least a solid #3, and this year he has been much better than his ERA would suggest.

[mothershipconnection]

In selling high, we have to remember the group here that got up in arms in hindsight when Fielder "got fat and would never be anywhere near the player he was in '07". We have descriptive ability, but very little predictive ability when talking about peaks and selling high. The times you know a player will fall apart after a fluke season are the times every scout and GM will as well.

[dlk9s]

Riske was far from solid last year. He went south mid year and almost single handedly cost the team the playoffs. Another bad signing from Melvin. Hopefully we never see him pitch for the team again. These are exactly the type of contracts that need to be avoided. Do not overpay mediocrity.

Huh? How did Riske, of all people, almost cost the Brewers the playoffs?

 

Before he got hurt, he was pitching fine, overall. He had a bad three game stretch in April after doing well the first 2+ weeks. Then he was doing well again until he got hurt in mid-May and wasn't the same after that. His contract is fine for guy who has been a good reliever throughout his career, especially since we needed bullpen help.

[DougJones43]

So, are you basically under the impression that there was no avoiding the downfall that happened this season? Melvin's hands were so tied that he, nor any other GM, would have been able to do anything over the past handful of years to put this franchise in a better position to be a playoff contender?

 

I will freely admit I don't have all the answers as to what exactly should or shouldn't have been done. It's impossible to backtrack years into the past, isolating individual moves, and say what should have been done, because each and every move has a exponential effect on everything that comes after. Maybe La Porta could have been shopped prior to '08 and netted something useful longterm, but we don't know and it never gets talked about because he's gone now for 3 months of CC Sabathia. Perhaps Corey Hart could have drawn some interest after his impressive debut in '06, and we could have filled the corner outfield void through free agency. We don't know because prior to La Porta, Melvin has been totally unwilling to part with any of his position player prospects. Maybe if Melvin hadn't been hellbent on getting a "major league" outfielder as part of the Carlos Lee deal, a deal could have been made that brought in a starting pitcher who could be helping right now instead of getting 1+ years of Kevin Mench and Cordero. Cordero was a fine player during that time, but that doesn't mean it was the right move for the longterm success of the franchise. There's an unknown amount of possibilities. Just because we don't know exactly what they were doesn't mean we can't speculate that the current state of the club could be better.

 

I understand being a GM is incredibly difficult, and only a select few people can do it. Some are better than others, and making moves that end up producing results (I referenced in another thread Wren trading for Vazquez vs Melvin signing Looper) is ultimately what separates them.

 

When you say it's "unrealistic" to wish the franchise was in a better state, I don't agree with that. With the talent and financial resources the organization has had recently, I refuse to believe that fielding a more competitive team this year was not possible. If in fact it was NOT possible, then I suppose I should probably stop watching the Brewers right now because they no matter what they do they're already tied to the destiny the baseball gods have put in motion for them.

 

I think we should all be very happy with what we have and the direction this franchise is heading. We are having a terrible season in many peoples minds but yet we are only 2 games under .500 and 8 games back in the wild card with 5 weeks to go.

Please don't tell people what they should or shouldn't be happy about. If you're satisfied being 2 games under .500, that's your right. That doesn't mean however, by any stretch of the imagination, that anybody else needs to be told by you that they "should" share your sentiment.

[MNBrew]

Riske was far from solid last year. He went south mid year and almost single handedly cost the team the playoffs. Another bad signing from Melvin. Hopefully we never see him pitch for the team again. These are exactly the type of contracts that need to be avoided.

What Riske had shown was everything you'd want to see when signing a middle reliever: success & durability over time. The fact that he had a few bad games early on and then became badly enough injured that he hasn't been able to pitch like himself (or basically at all) for over a year is NOT something ANYONE could've predicted. How can anyone know when someone's gonna be rendered unable to pitch when their history to date has been one of great arm health?

 

Signing Riske was hardly a "sexy" move, but it seemed pretty smart on several layers and filled a decent need. Ripping it apart now and calling it a stupid signing is pure 20/20 hindsight. Using that as a reason to suggest Melvin is inept and needs to be fired is emotionally charged and misguided.

[NYChez]

Parra should have been traded when his value was at his peak.

And all of us should have gotten out of the stock market and sold our houses in 2007.

[RockCoCougars]

This isn't hindsight if you could dig up my posts regarding my feelings about the Suppan and Riske signings immediately after they happened. In particular, I was most critical about these signings because I felt there wouldn't be enough money to resign Sheets. I felt guys like Riske were a dime a dozen and could better be procured off the waiver wire.

 

I also posted that we should look at using Parra in a piece of a trade for a proven starter this past winter, and hammered Melvin for going into the season with him as the number 2.

 

I'm not always right, but saw a lot of this coming. It wouldn't take a genius to know that depending on Suppan and two young guys for your rotation would likely end in disaster.

[brewers19]

Please don't tell people what they should or shouldn't be happy about. If you're satisfied being 2 games under .500, that's your right. That doesn't mean however, by any stretch of the imagination, that anybody else needs to be told by you that they "should" share your sentiment.

He was harmlessly stating his opinion, not a directive. No real need for indignation.

[giffted1]

So, are you basically under the impression that there was no avoiding the downfall that happened this season? Melvin's hands were so tied that he, nor any other GM, would have been able to do anything over the past handful of years to put this franchise in a better position to be a playoff contender?

If I'm not mistaken, I think one of the major points of the thread is how unrealistic it is to expect the Brewers to be a playoff team every year.

I understand being a GM is incredibly difficult, and only a select few people can do it. Some are better than others, and making moves that end up producing results (I referenced in another thread Wren trading for Vazquez vs Melvin signing Looper) is ultimately what separates them.

Yes, Wren picking up Vazquez was a nice move but are you seriously suggesting that Frank Wren is a better GM than Doug Melvin? Check out some of the insanely bad contracts he handed out in his short tenure with the Orioles. I'll admit that Angelos probably had some part in those deals, but the Albert Belle deal makes Jeffrey Hammonds contract look good.

[Ennder]

2002 - Sheets, Rusch, Quevedo, Wright, Neugebauer

2003 - Sheets, Franklin, Kinney, Rusch, Overmueller

 

I don't think you can really blame our pitching those years on Melvin, we had nothing to work with at that point.

 

2004 - Sheets, Davis, Santos, Obermueller, Capuano

 

This is an upgrade over 2003, we still have no depth or anything at this point.

 

2005 - Davis, Capuano, Sheets, Santos, Ohka

 

Again a slight upgrade, building a staff that is actually not a complete joke for the first time in years.

 

2006 - Capuano, Bush, Davis, Sheets, Ohka

 

Another upgrade, we now have 5 real pitchers without a joke in the rotation. At this point we also have Parra and Gallardo coming to help soon.

 

So from 2002-2006 I find it hard to criticize Melvin for the pitching considering what we started with and the fact we rebuilt the offense first through the draft.

 

2007 - Suppan, Bush, Capuano(injured), Sheets, Vargas, Gallardo.

 

This is where it started to go wrong, the bad contract for Suppan, Capuano and Sheets getting hurt pretty much killed the pitching this season though we had Gallardo stepping in to help out.

 

2008 - Sheets, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo(injured), Sabathia

 

Again we have a decent rotation here with pretty much no depth. The Gallardo injury makes us trade a prospect to get a rental which hurt. Gallardo doesnt go down and maybe we have the chips to trade for say Halladay or Lee this year.

 

2009 - Suppan, Bush, Parra, Looper, Gallardo

 

Suppan contract is still killing us, Parra regresses and Bush gets hurt.

 

Very little looks wrong with how Melvin handled this situation to me other than the fact the organization hasn't had enough success with young pitching. That is partially Melvin's fault but there has to be more to it than that since so many people are involved in the drafting and teaching of these players. I don't think magically replacing Melvin fixes the issue by itself. The Suppan contract is obviously the real killer in all of this, if we had say signed Lilly or Meche instead this entire picture looks so much better.

[MNBrew]

2008 - Sheets, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo(injured), Sabathia

 

Again we have a decent rotation here with pretty much no depth. The Gallardo injury makes us trade a prospect to get a rental which hurt. Gallardo doesnt go down and maybe we have the chips to trade for say Halladay or Lee this year.

Ennder, I agree almost in full with your whole assessment except for part of the bit on 2008. I think last year's team was MUCH closer to being a solid playoff contender than this year's. In hindsight, I believe Melvin was right that last year was the year to go for it. Had they not done so, I think the Brewers would be in an even deeper mess this year. Of the players lost, none have done much good at the MLB level, although LaPorta & Brantley have done fine at AAA.

 

Perhaps the only additional feather we'd have in our cap was 2 more solid hitting prospects from which to deal. But I don't think Lee or Halladay makes the kind of difference this year that Sabathia did last year -- and certainly not enough to make up for how out-of-this-world St. Louis has played since July 1st. Maybe if we'd gotten Lee AND Halladay, but that would've totally gutted everything and everyone would be trashing Melvin for emptying the whole store.

[Ennder]

Ennder, I agree almost in full with your whole assessment except for part of the bit on 2008. I think last year's team was MUCH closer to being a solid playoff contender than this year's

 

Sure, I agree with that as well. I just don't think we trade for Sabathia if Gallardo doesn't get hurt and if we don't trade LaPorta during the season to get Sabathia it means we have the prospects to trade for a Vazquez or something like that during the off season or for a pitcher to fill in this year when Parra starts so poorly and Bush/Suppan get hurt. I was more just trying to point out that the depth has been more of an issue in general than the actual rotation we have put out there considering how terrible the rotation was when he took over.

[The Truth]

We can certainly be disappointed in the Brewers letting Sheets see MLB action at all in 2001 or 2002, burning up his pre-arby time and (more disgracefully) burning out his arm pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball.

 

We can also be disappointed in the Brewers not drafting more pitchers in the first few rounds. The Brewers passed up Paul Maholm, Chad Billingsley, and James Houser to take Rickie Weeks in 2003. Granted Weeks is a huge talent, but the 1st round of the 2003 draft is just one example of the Brewers loading up on position players in the draft. I know that a bunch of pitchers got injured, but the Brewers inability (usually) to successfully pick great pitchers in the draft is probably the #1 reason they aren't playoff bound more often

 

I'd advocate that Braun and Fielder were great picks and the rest of the first few rounds should have been spent on pitching (as you might guess, I was happy with the 2009 draft!)

 

It's much easier to trade for impact MLB hitters (Carlos Lee, Felipe Lopez etc) than pitchers. The Brewers should have drafted pitching more consistently

[twobrewers]

The Brewers should have drafted pitching more consistently

They clearly have learned that lesson in the past two years.

 

No free agent in their prime is going to sign with the Brewers.

CC would have signed with the Brewers for the same amount of money New York paid him. Unless you mean that the Brewers will never take the risk to sign a free agent in his prime?

 

The Brewers are looking to build a consistent winner every year. Some years, when things are going good - they will make a trade and push towards the playoffs. Some years, when things are going poorly (losing your stud lead-off hitter, two significant injuries to your pitching staff, a RF with an appendectomy, and a young pitcher completely falling backwards) you hold the line.

 

There is nothing wrong with the Brewers underachieving this year. If Weeks and Bush stay healthy - we would probably be an 85 win team. Melvin's biggest mistake was not having enough starting rotation depth to start the year. We needed a long-reliever who could actually perform as a #5 pitcher.

 

Can anyone find the thread from when Suppan signed? I loved it. And honestly, I think it was completely necessary to legitimize the Brewers in the National League.

 

Great post BrewCityUnit.

[logan82]

CC would have signed with the Brewers for the same amount of money New York paid him. Unless you mean that the Brewers will never take the risk to sign a free agent in his prime?

 

There is could and should to consider. Anybody technically could sign anybody. There are budget restraints on every team. Some with more than others. I think the should is where the Brewers have to be careful. Players, especially pitchers, get injured. Depth is very important and putting to much money on any one player is a huge risk.

[Mr QL]

I think Melvin's whole team-building philosophy is flawed and has taken as far as it's going to take us. It has nothing to do with him not trading for so and so one year or letting so and so go. I don't know how you honestly can be happy with the direction the team is going. Our young pitching is years away and Prince probably won't be here when it finally does arrive if at all.

[Invader3K]

"Our young pitching is years away and Prince probably won't be here when it finally does arrive if at all. "

 

This is the big issue I have at this point. While I would hate to see Prince traded, and hold out a small glimmer of hope that he might be retained past 2011, the fact is he will likely be gone by then, one way or another. I think if you can get some quality young pitching for him, it is worth considering. Unfortunately, I do not think that fits Melvin's M.O. at all.

 

Sometimes a team like the Brewers, without big market monetary resources, has to be more aggressive. That often means trading marquee fan favorite types earlier than many fans woudl like. The Twins learned that the hard way...it would be nice to see Melvin maybe learn from them.

[phxMILWfan]

When people disagree with Ted Thompson other fans like to say things like "Find another team then" or "Be a Jets/Vikings fan". I don't agree with those responses. It's more than aggravating to have spent years hating Yankee fans who have a sense of playoff entitlement and after 1 season of just making the playoffs some of our own fans expect the playoffs. It's a process. DM went for it last year because anyone could look forward to this year and see that the team wouldn't have the best shot at the playoffs. Give the guy more time. After getting the team to this point he deserves the chance to make the big decisions coming in the next 2 seasons. Who would you have replace him?