Targeting low-payroll teams facing arby increases

[LouisEly]

Namely, the Marlins and the Rays.

 

Marlins - someone proposed a deal for Ricky Nolasco, and that makes a lot of sense. Nolasco's 2008 has been more of the exception than the rule for his career. Uggla is probably due for arby as well creating a hole at 2B and they may need to unload him, and they have a black hole at 3B. The Marlins have a couple of other guys who may be at arby as well in Andrew Miller (already making over $2M in salary being a top 10 pick), Annibal Sanchez, and Josh Johnson. While Johnson is probably out of reach, Nolasco and Miller might be available. Perhaps Melvin can sell high on Casey McGehee, and if they do deal Uggla might be able to package Iribarren. McGehee, Iribarren, and Peralta for Nolasco or Miller? If not Iribarren, then McGehee, Peralta, and Rivas? They make a good trading partner because they have a need at 3B.

 

Rays - Shields is probably due arby, as might Sonnastine. Unfortunately they have 2B and 3B locked down with All-Stars. Don't know how they feel about Dioner Navarro, but he is having a crappy season and might be due arby and as far as I can tell they don't have any catching prospects coming down the road. As much as I want to hand over the catching duties to Salome, would a package of Salome, Peralta, and Rivas get Shields? Or Shields + Navarro for Salome, Peralta, Rivas, and either Wooten or Aguilar?

 

Alright, let me know how unreasonable these are...

[nate82]

Shields signed an extension with the Rays and isn't arby eligible and he is cheap until his final option with the Rays. Iwamura the Rays current 2B just came off the DL I believe and the Rays have an option on him for next year or a $250K buyout. Iwamura's option is cheap though and he would get more in free agency though Hardy/Hart maybe a better fit for the Rays than McGehee. Bartlett is kind of old but the Rays have him under control for the next couple of years this is only his 3rd year of service time. So Hardy may not fit and with the Rays dumping Kazmir I'm not sure they will be dumping Crawford also. But if they would get Hart they would probably dump Crawford for some pitching depth.

 

I don't see the Rays trading Shields since he is rather inexpensive he will only cost the Rays $2.5M next year. Sonnanstine probably won't get that much of an increase in an arby raise than what he is getting now which will probably be around the 500K mark.

 

The Marlins are a nice team to look at and get pitching in return. I wouldn't mind Andrew Miller he is like Parra and I don't see the Marlins trading away Nolasco. Johnson is probably the most likely player to be traded. If the Brewers could swing a McGehee, Salome, Scarpetta/Anundsen, and a PTBNL for Johnson that would be a perfect trade for the Brewers and the Marlins. Johnson is going to cost a lot in arbitration for the Marlins and we all know how the Marlins hate paying a lot for the last few years of a players arbitration especially when they are going to get a big payday increase.

 

Uggla will also be gone from the Marlins so that will probably open up a hole at 2B for them and depending on what they get in return for Uggla that could make Johnson, Nolasco, Miller, and Sanchez expendable. One of those four will probably be gone from the Marlins.

 

Another candidate for a trade is Ian Kennedy. Yes I have some kind of man crush on Ian Kennedy for some strange reason but he looks to be completely blocked in New York and it doesn't look like the Yankees really trust in his stuff anymore. Kennedy would probably be another Dave Bush type of a pitcher but at a cheaper price. I'm not sure what the Yankees would want in return in a trade for Kennedy though.

[trwi7]

I don't see the Rays trading Shields. They traded Kazmir to save some money. I don't want Sonnanstine either. Good control, but weak stuff. Like a Dave Bush type. Not bad to have, but not what we need.

[TooLiveBrew]

Uggla will also be gone from the Marlins so that will probably open up a hole at 2B for them

 

I know someone else (can't recall who, sorry) mentioned in the ML forum the example of SD trading Todd Walker when he unexpectedly became a Type A. So for this example, Lopez would accept arbitration, and then be traded to FLA for [something]. That way the Brewers wouldn't have to risk overpaying him to back up Weeks at 2B & PH occasionally, and still get something for him in return.

 

Come to think of it, I wonder what the Marlins might send back for an offer of Lopez+McGehee. I think, as of now, the Fish probably view Emilio Bonifacio as the eventual successor to Uggla if he isn't retained. So imo they'd at least have interest in one of Lopez/McGehee, and probably both given Bonifacio's anemic offense.

 

 

Oh, and by the way, nice thread idea LE.

[trwi7]

I think their eventual replacement for Uggla is Chris Coghlan. He played 242 of his 288 games in the field there in the minors and then that makes a spot in the outfield for Cameron Maybin.

[twobrewers]

Johnson is probably the most likely player to be traded. If the Brewers could swing a McGehee, Salome, Scarpetta/Anundsen, and a PTBNL for Johnson that would be a perfect trade for the Brewers and the Marlins.

 

Unless the PTBNL is Arnett - I think the Marlins could find a much better offer.

 

Personally, I'd like to go after Cody Ross for CF. He shouldn't cost too much - and would be a nice replacement for Cameron.

 

I've suggested Andrew Miller before. Very good "buy low" candidate.

[endaround]

Not sure how Cody Ross wouldn't cost much. He's an average defensive CFer with an above average bat under arby for 2 seasons. Unless the Marlins are aiming for another sub $30m payroll they don't have to move him for anything but a good package assuming they move Uggla.

[dadofandrew]

Ross is a more realistic option, to be sure. Teams won't move young pitching often, and when they do, will get a boatload for it...including youg minor league pitching, which the Crew has none of at the higher levels.

[Invader3K]

I'm not sure if the Marlins would trade Nolasco. He is under team control for three more years, and has been very good since a stint in the minors earlier this year. It might take a bit to pry him away at this point.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've suggested Andrew Miller before. Very good "buy low" candidate.

 

I thought I've read that a big concern with Miller has been his mechanics. The best example I could find is this drivelinemechanics.com article. You have to scroll down to appx. the halfway point down the page to see the mechanics breakdown.

 

The first thing I noticed was that Andrew Miller "hooks" the ball during his arm swing, much like Barry Zito.

 

Chris O' Leary doesn't like this since it implies tension in the wrist. I don't like it because I think it will cause a timing flaw later in the delivery, and it also suggests that the pitcher does not have a smooth pendulum swing-type arm action.

...

Miller's arm has just barely passed through the horizontal axis at footstrike, which will cause his arm to lay back more violently in the external rotation phase, further stressing the subscapularis, supraspinatus, and UCL (two pieces of the rotator cuff and the ligament replaced in Tommy John surgery, respectively).

...

[Miller exhibits] a classic case of reverse rotation, as you can see very clearly that he intently takes the arm behind his back and laterally behind his body. This unnecessarily taxes the anterior shoulder structures including the labrum, pectoralis major, and the biceps. Additionally, reverse rotating the shoulders and taking the ball laterally behind the body gives the hitter a better chance to pick up and track the ball - by simply taking the ball towards second base and keeping it hidden behind the body, a pitcher keeps it hidden from the batter's view, adding deception to his delivery. (Greg Maddux is a great example of this; it is also called being "sneaky fast")

 

Miller does do a good job of keeping his elbow below or in line with his shoulder which will avoid impingement concerns in his shoulder. However, when you look at the whole picture, Miller's arm action isn't good. I rate it as Poor.

...

In conclusion, I think that Miller has been severely rushed to the majors. He lacks a third pitch, and as a result, he will always struggle against righties with only a fastball-slider combination. Sliders from pitchers who are losing the platoon battle get crushed while curves typically fare better; the lateral movement is easier to track in as opposed to out, which is why a changeup with tailing action is very necessary to be a complete starting pitcher. Andrew Miller needs time in the minors to master a changeup or he'll be nothing more than a useful LOOGY (Lefty One Out Guy) or a fifth starter who gets crushed by lineups with lots of right-handed hitters. Additionally, his mechanics are not ideal and could use some tinkering, specifically the extreme reverse rotation which should clear up his poor timing at footstrike. Unfortunately the Marlins seem not to want to option him to the minors, so he'll continue to get crushed unless he can learn on the job, and fast.

It sounds like, unless the Brewers are willing to stash Miller in AAA in the hopes they can clean up his mechanics & help him develop a changeup, Miller would be a pretty considerable risk. However, this article was from 2008, so if anyone has some more recent info on Miller, I'd sure appreciate it.

[804Sox]

Johnson is probably the most likely player to be traded. If the Brewers could swing a McGehee, Salome, Scarpetta/Anundsen, and a PTBNL for Johnson that would be a perfect trade for the Brewers and the Marlins.

 

Unless the PTBNL is Arnett - I think the Marlins could find a much better offer.

Agreed. Josh Johnson is probably one of the top 15-20 most valuable players in baseball. Young, affordable, PROVEN aces are hard to come by. He would garner a King Felix-type return (probably a bit less)

[Never Outhustled]

Agreed. Josh Johnson is probably one of the top 15-20 most valuable players in baseball. Young, affordable, PROVEN aces are hard to com garner a King Felix-type return (probably a bit less)

 

This offer my be a little light, but not alot light. Like you said, it would take a little less than the King Felix offer. That offer was what, 3 prospects of Seattles choice? What we don't know is if that included guys like Bucholz, who was in the majors at the time.

 

MaGehee is an MLB 2B-3B with a 840 OPS and will be under control for 5 more seasons. Salome had an OPS over 900 last year in the Southern League. he's pretty talented. Scarpetta is big and strong, with low 90s heat and a killer curve that has lead to huge K totals as a 20 year old starter. He's also valuable.

[dadofandrew]

Casey and a pair of prospects is nowhere near an ace. Escobar, Gamel, and Lawrie maybe. Look what Cliff Lee went for, and add to it because he's cheaper and under team control longer. If anything, those pre-arby guys are overrrated. Guys in arby years still take a ton to get.

 

Garza was dealt in his pre-arby time, and it took one of the best position player prospects in the game. Now, Young has not developed as nicely as the Twins would hope, but he was a top 5-10 prospect. The guys above are top 100, maybe, but not top 10 (Alcides might be top 20).

[804Sox]

Agreed. Josh Johnson is probably one of the top 15-20 most valuable players in baseball. Young, affordable, PROVEN aces are hard to com garner a King Felix-type return (probably a bit less)

 

This offer my be a little light, but not alot light. Like you said, it would take a little less than the King Felix offer. That offer was what, 3 prospects of Seattles choice? What we don't know is if that included guys like Bucholz, who was in the majors at the time.

 

MaGehee is an MLB 2B-3B with a 840 OPS and will be under control for 5 more seasons. Salome had an OPS over 900 last year in the Southern League. he's pretty talented. Scarpetta is big and strong, with low 90s heat and a killer curve that has lead to huge K totals as a 20 year old starter. He's also valuable.

I was under the impression that it was five or even six of anybody (including Buchholz) except Westmoreland and Bard. There were lots of conflicting reports though. What the Mariners' rejection of the trade offer comes down to, though, is that there is essentially no package of players that could entice them to move King Felix. The Sox, it seems, were literally willing to give away the entire farm for him, and the M's turned it down. Johnson doesn't have THAT kind of value, but I think it would be similarly true that no team would be willing to put together the type of package that it would take to get him, and from the Brewers POV such a package would reasonably include Escobar, Gamel, and Lawrie. probably Scarpetta and/or Peralta too.

[ILuvDaBush]

If they're going to move Josh Johnson, it's going to be for 2 top prospects. I would think that give the Marlins' track record, they would aim for a Miggy/Dontrelle-type of package. If you look at the amount of years given up in that deal, it is similar to the Josh Johnson situation. So if we were going to pry away Josh Johnson, it's going to cost Gamel.

[nate82]

If they're going to move Josh Johnson, it's going to be for 2 top prospects. I would think that give the Marlins' track record, they would aim for a Miggy/Dontrelle-type of package. If you look at the amount of years given up in that deal, it is similar to the Josh Johnson situation. So if we were going to pry away Josh Johnson, it's going to cost Gamel.

I would definitely do a trade where Gamel would be the key player going to the Marlins for Johnson. I would just have to know who else we would be giving up also. Definitely Escobar wouldn't be in this deal because Hanley Ramirez is already playing SS for the Marlins and that would be redundant for the Marlins to trade for Escobar when they have Ramirez for a long time.

 

If the Marlins are getting Gamel then Lawrie would be off the table. Salome and Lucroy would be possibilities also I would hope that Salome would be traded instead of Lucroy though. Scarpetta, Odorizzi, or Rivas could be the pitchers in the deal along with Butler or Axford being in the deal to be the MLB ready pitchers. Axford doesn't make much sense with Ceda in the Marlins organization what a steal that was by the Marlins trading Gregg for Ceda.