Melvin on next year's pitching

[Thurston Fluff]

Counting on any of them to become contributors in the rotation was likely to end in disaster.

 

Which is why i think Jack Z was wrong in his evaluation of top prospects. He continually underestimated how many arms should be aquired to avoid lack of pitching talent available in the high minors. The injury rate of pitchers vs position players combined with the demand of pitchers vs position players is so much greater he should have weighted his draft accordingly. His philosophy of best player available was right but his system of evaluating them was weighted wrong IMHO. He could and should have drafter far more pitchers than he did and many should have come earlier in the draft. I think having enough middle of the pack pitching prospects is more important than enough middle of the pack position players.

[zzzmanwitz]

There has been some comments recently about why didn't Melvin get Edwin Jackson. I was curious and did a search for Edwin Jackson and Matt Joyce to see comments about them BEFORE this season. Here is what I found.

 

"Still don't understand why people want Edwin Jackson. He had a mediocre minor league career, has below average strike out rate and a terrible walk rate, his GB% is ok but nothing special."

 

"I wouldn't want Jackson as a centerpiece of a deal, but he certainly has some value, albeit I think he was helped out by his defense this year. That said, he's still fairly young, has a plus arm, and has had success at the major league level in a tough division."

 

"Some people look at his actual stuff instead of his Strikeout and GB rates and see the potential the guy has. I wanted to trade Corey Hart for him so we can upgrade RF with a LH bat that increases our OBP that can maybe even bat leadoff. I viewed that as a good swap because I heard someone talk about a potential Edwin Jackson for Randy Wynn deal on another site and I thought how about Corey Hart instead of Randy Wynn.? I dont think as highly of Corey Hart as alot of the people do around here so Id rather trade him now while he has value even if it is selling low instead of seeing him going down the Bill Hall path and have him become untradeable."

 

"It wouldn't exactly be shocking if David Price was a full 2 wins better than Edwin Jackson. Of course, injuries could happen and young players could regress, but the Rays still look like solid favorites to me. They very well might be a team I'd put money on to at least win the division if I was in Vegas."

 

"They added a very good DH in Burrell and the acquisition of Joyce is very underrated."

 

"I'm not really interested in Jackson at all. He hasn't been any better than a bunch of the guys who were pitching in the 4/5/6 spots for the Brewers last season."

 

"The only pitcher the Rays would trade I think is Edwin Jackson. And I wouldn't mind getting Jackson in a deal. But not for Prince or Hart. Jackson has electric stuff, but needs to cut down his walks. If he does that he could be special."

 

"I love the Dodgers as a fit, but they have been nortoriously stingy with their prospects. They rarely let them go until they have flamed out. (See Hanrahan, Jackson and Laroche to name a few)"

 

There were mixed reviews of Jackson on this site, there wasn't even a topic made about the trade of Joyce for Jackson when it happened. Seems like there wasn't much uproar before the season started.

[pitchleague]

very nice job of bringing those comments back to the forefront of the discussion. Very interesting to read the comments.

[TooLiveBrew]

I remember Robert R was a big proponent of adding Jackson last offseason, and iirc he recently posted on that himself.

[zzzmanwitz]

It seems Robert was at least open to the idea more than most that commented on Edwin.

[zzzmanwitz]

Found some more....

 

"Would anyone swap Corey Hart for Edwin Jackson?"

 

"Jackson's 'breakout' was just the Rays improving on defense. His K/9 is hovering just over 6 and he still gives up too many BB's. He is Dave Bush with worse control so I personally wouldn't want him."

 

"Dave Bush wishes he could throw high 90s heat like Jackson but I can see the comparison you're trying to make. I saw Edwin Jackson come in against the Redsox a couple days ago and strike out 4 in 1 1/3 innings. When I see the type of stuff he has I see a guy who could be a star in the league as a closer which is where my interest comes from. Hes still young so whos to say theres no chance he cant cut the walks down and increase his strikeouts? "

 

"Hell no

 

Jackson still allows tons of baserunners and only truck out 108 hitters in 183 innings, along with walking 77 batters. "

 

"Nope. But I would swap something else to obtain Jackson. I have read on various blogs and websites that he may be available this offseason. He does walk to many, but he has flat out electric stuff. Perhaps Maddux could harness his control like he did with McClung. "

[TheCrew07]

Shortly after the time of the Overbay trade McGowan was considered the top prospect in the Blue Jays system. We were not getting him for Lyle Overbay. Fielder might have netted him, though. Also, your desire for Marcum is almost certainly benefited by the luxury of hindsight. Marcum was not part of the top ten prospect ranking at the time of the Overbay trade. In the previous year Jackson, not Marcum was part of the list.

Not necessarily, the market was different back then, proven MLB players carried much more weight, though we may have had to give up another prospect of significance, but it wouldn't have had to be Fielder. As far as Marcum vs Bush goes... it's not hindsight, Marcum threw slightly harder with better control... I view them as similar pitchers at the time, I would have taken the player with less MLB experience but slightly more upside. What's 2 MPH on the fastball worth? Probably not much in the grand scheme of things, I called Marcum a B prospect out of convenience to make my point, he was probably more like a C? type player. The point I was trying to illustrate was that Melvin seemed to be more interested in building depth acquiring multiple low ceiling players that were MLB ready and had MLB experience © than he was in acquiring impact talent.

 

I'm not talking about trading for Peavy, Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, or any other proven MLB front line ace, they are simply too costly to pay and too costly to acquire. Many young pitchers have been moved in the last 5 years in deals that worked out very well, not necessarily in sexy type moves that garnered headlines. We've been in need of front line pitching depth since I found Brewerfan.net in 2003, we've never really had it, and the organization hasn't made any moves to acquire it. The only reason we have some top of the rotation depth approaching MLB now is the draft/signing process which is great, but won't start reaping benefits till next season at the earliest. That's quite the gap in the system... We went from Sheets in 2001 to Yo in 2007... who's going to be the next pitcher of significance to debut? Can we realistically only debut a single top of the rotation starter in 6 years and hope to remain competitive playoff wise? My answer to the question over the winter was "no" and I remain convinced that to win a WS we need very solid 1,2, 3 punch for the playoffs. Good pitching is greater than good hitting. We can get to the playoffs with an average staff if the offense is good enough, but we aren't winning anything until our pitching once again surpasses our hitting.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Melvin needed to do better. The pitching staff coming into the season was going to be a major weakness and everyone knew it but most were willing to overlook it and hope for the best. Yes the starting pitching options were slim last year so an instant ace was not in the cards but Melvin could have improved this team in other areas. The problem with this organization right now is that there is no pitching at AA or above. The problem with this organization is that there is no legit outfielder in any level to step in and provide good production. We came into season like we have in so many hoping that certain players preform at a level that they never have performed at in the big leagues over an extended period of time. Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Parra were all asked to do something they have not done consistently. This team could have went out and got an Ibanez to man right and traded one of the above for depth that is sorely lacking. Hopefully, the haul we received over the last 2 years in the draft will work its way up and we might see that depth in a few years but I doubt Melvin will be around to see it firsthand.

[Ennder]

Edwin Jackson has a 4.58 xFIP including a much improved BB/9 that he may not be able to sustain. I wouldn't go throwing around I told you so's based on an ERA that is mostly driven by stranding a higher number of hitters than is sustainable. This is a pitcher that is more likely to see an ERA over 4.5 next year than one under 3.00 like he has this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

This team could have went out and got an Ibanez to man right and traded one of the above for depth that is sorely lacking.

 

I think it was a sign of good judgment by Melvin to not sign him to a deal that will pay him $11.5M for his age 38 & 39 seasons, and that doesn't even factor in how much of his value he negates by being a horrible fielder. Some people who even agree that Mike Cameron is a great fit in CF are reluctant to bring him back for 2010 -- he's younger, and plays far better defense at a premium spot, and would likely cost a similar amount. Imo you can't just pick a FA that's had a good year & use that as a critique against Melvin -- there has to be context. The Brewers don't have the kind of payroll flexibility to sustain that kind of money on an old player, but the Phillies do.

 

 

The problem with this organization right now is that there is no pitching at AA or above.

 

If you are willing to wait for 2010, that will no longer be true. I think the argument could be made that there is good pitching at AA & above right now. Most of it is not to AA yet. However, Butler has had a good season & depending who you ask, so has Mike Jones. Butler had the oblique injury but will get some more time in the AFL, so it's hard for me to feel down about his season/development just yet.

[tigerbrew]

Nobody (except maybe Braun) openly speaks their mind to the media, especially not front office people. It's a world of soundbites. Very few people are willing (stupid enough?) to call out others in their organization publicly; players don't want to piss off their teammates, managers don't want to throw their players under the bus, and executives don't want to demoralize the organization and its fans.

When did I say that people should call out others in their organization publicly? I think you have misread my words, I was talking about the unrealistic expectations set by the GM.

 

If people want to take the comments to the media as gospel and 100% truth, then I guess that's their prerogative; they're setting themselves up for a whole bunch of disappointment, but whatever.

If you're referring to me, I don't believe everything people say to the media, especially certain politicians. But this is just the national pastime, not national politics, I don't get a whole bunch of disappintment about it.

 

If you want to believe that Bill Castro and [almost] the entire pitching staff failed this season because of a 5 second snippet that Melvin gave to the Journal-Sentinel back in March, go for it. I won't have your back on it though.

I didn't say that the Bill Castro and the pitching staff failed because of a JS article. I'm saying that there was unrealistic expectation placed on them, some key pitchers were made out to be better than they really are, and Castro paid for this failing expectation. That JS article like others articles and interviews give us a sense of Melvin's thinking, that's all.

 

I do think Melvin meant what he said about his winning the division goal / expectation. Things were going ok until the all-star break, and when the pitching continue to sour after the break, Melvin decided to fire Castro but is it really Castro's fault? I think if anyone was dealt a bad hand, it was Castro.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

But your initial argument was that Capellan was acquired as his value was on the way down... so which is it?

 

You are tripping up/obsessing on "value" -- I have always claimed that the Braves gave up on Capellan as a starter. Some publication, called Capellan their "top pitching prospect" -- obviously that isn't going to hurt his ability to be marketable.

 

Similarly, McGehee could feasibly win ROY -- which is also a subjective award/designation -- I don't think it makes him any closer to being a MLB starting 3b, -- however, it certainly would probably be the best time to trade him.

 

It sure sounds like you were making a claim/argument without checking the accuracy first, got called on it

 

False.

 

I said this. This was after ~20 starts and the Futures game. Sounds like the Braves sold him at the right time.

 

Capellan made 20 or so starts and pitched good in a exhibition game, and then some publications rated him as a "top prospect" -- I think that Braves moved Capellan at an optimal time -- I think that they knew even at that point that Capellan would very unlikely not be a starter at the MLB level.

 

and now are grasping at straws to try and cover your mistake.

 

The only mistake I have made is getting into a tiresome argument over terminology -- but, I certainly could have been clearer, and for that I apologize. I have been consistent with the following:

 

1.) I think the Braves gave up on Capellan as a MLB starter.

2.) I think the Braves moved Capellan at a time that benefited them.

3.) Top Prospect Lists are entirely subjective, and if DM is using them to make trade decisions, he is an idiot.

4.) I think DM realized Kolb was over-rated and overvalued and took advantage of it.

5.) Even though, I think Capellan was unlikely to be a starter, I think he had value as a young BP arm project, I certainly would value a SP prospect higher than a BP prospect -- but I never thought Capellan was w/o value.

 

Obviously we disagree on DM's motives -- you think that DM made a move to get Capellan - one of the Braves top starting pitching prospects -- based on some publication's assessment. I would hope DM would not be taking that publication's information that seriously.

 

I am not sure why we can't disagree without the prickish use of "grasping at straws" -- If my argument lacks merit, I am quite fine with people pointing out the flaws in it -- I am not sure why you feel the need to be hostile.

[DougJones43]

From the JS today:

It was the latest chapter in an ongoing horror story for the Brewers' rotation, which entered the night with a league-worst 5.27 earned run average and exited with a 5.34 ERA, by far the highest among the 30 major league clubs.

 

To provide historical perspective as to the awfulness of that ERA, only 56 starting rotations have finished with a higher mark since 1954.

Really shows how awful the starting pitching has been. Historically bad. I think anyone who believes we would have been fine with a healthy Bush/Suppan are really fooling themselves. We're not even close. If next year's rotation even remotely resembles this year's, it's going to be another long season.

[kramnoj]

So, on average, one team a year is as worse as the Brewers staff is this year? That isn't what I think of when I think of historic. It's also not clear to me that showing how bad the pitching replacements have been show that the Brewers wouldn't have been ok if their pitching was lucky enough to stay healthy.

[DougJones43]

So, on average, one team a year is as worse as the Brewers staff is this year? That isn't what I think of when I think of historic.

Considering we have the advantage of being in the NL, it's pretty bad -- but I'm not going to argue semantics of what constitutes historic.

 

It's also not clear to me that showing how bad the pitching replacements have been show that the Brewers wouldn't have been ok if their pitching was lucky enough to stay healthy.

You're acting like the fill-ins are totally destroying what would be an otherwise respectable number. Have you seen the numbers the rest of the staff (including guys they replaced) have put up? Still horrible. And the team/management has no "bad luck" to blame for letting Bush and Suppan start games and get hammered while they were both injured.

[sveumrules]

I think anyone who believes we would have been fine with a healthy Bush/Suppan are really fooling themselves.

as of june 10th, the start after his injury in florida, david bush had an era of 4.58

 

as of july 22 jeff suppan had an era of 4.71. his next start he gave up 10 ER and promptly went on the DL.

 

i'd say prior to being injured both of them were pitching pretty much exactly to what expectations should have been coming into the year.

[kramnoj]

You're acting like the fill-ins are totally destroying what would be an otherwise respectable number.

 

Show me that's not the case.

 

And the team/management has no "bad luck" to blame for letting Bush and Suppan start games and get hammered while they were both injured.

 

You are absolutely correct. Further evidence that the Brewers would have been in a better position with a healthy Bush and Suppan. But then you said I'm fooling myself.

[DougJones43]

I'm not totally confident those guys would have sustained those (passable) ERA for the entire season, injury or not. Braden Looper's ERA entering June was 4.24, and since then it's shot up well over half-a-run and hasn't come back down -- and he has been healthy.

 

Either way, even if Bush/Suppan had kept up those numbers and stayed in the rotation, the point is I still don't think the rotation would have been good enough for this team to contend for the playoffs.

[kramnoj]

Either way, even if Bush/Suppan had kept up those numbers and stayed in the rotation, the point is I still don't think the rotation would have been good enough for this team to contend for the playoffs.

 

There were a fair number of people who thought that before the season. Yet, there the Brewers were, in 1st place with those two pitching and healthy and an effective bullpen behind them.

[MJLiverock]

Either way, even if Bush/Suppan had kept up those numbers and stayed in the rotation, the point is I still don't think the rotation would have been good enough for this team to contend for the playoffs.

 

There were a fair number of people who thought that before the season. Yet, there the Brewers were, in 1st place with those two pitching and healthy and an effective bullpen behind them.

They had a good run at the start of the seaon, but the season is 162 games, not two months. The bullpen was going to wear down and be less effective as the season wore on because the starters do not go deep in games, be it Suppan or Burns.

 

Why have Bush and Suppan continued to get rocked now? They aren't pitching any better than their replacements. They just aren't that great of pitchers and the staff injuries probably wouldn't have made much difference because of that. They have a good game or two but over the course of the whole season they end up with mediocre at best results. I watched Burns outduel Santana for a win, it happens but seeing Bush and Suppan, and Looper and Para get shelled can't be that big of a surprise anymore. Even Gallardo is hitting the wall with innings and pitchcounts for the year.

[kramnoj]

Why have Bush and Suppan continued to get rocked now?

 

It's not clear to me that Bush is healthy, and Suppan hardly got rocked in his most recent start.

 

They have a good game or two but over the course of the whole season they end up with mediocre at best results.

 

Mediocre results is exactly what this team needed to stay competitive. Unfortunately they didn't get that from the replacement starters.

[DougJones43]

It's not clear to me that Bush is healthy

Why is he pitching then? He's risking making his injury worse, and the results aren't any better than his replacements. And for what? We're not in it.

 

It's gotta be either one or the other: Bush is hurt and still pitching, in which case the management/staff are morons -- or, he's healthy and getting whacked around anyway, and is displaying the fact that he's really not as much of a stabilizing force to the rotation as people had hoped.

[RockCoCougars]

It's not clear to me that Bush is healthy, and Suppan hardly got rocked in his most recent start.

I beg to differ with you. Even on the outs, Pittsburgh was hitting Suppan like a slow pitch softball pitcher. He was aided by what, three or four double plays (one was an absolute rocket hit to second and one was a great play by Counsell) and a couple line drive atom balls. Had a couple of things turned just a little bit, he'd have been looking at about 7 or 8 earned runs again. Did he even strike anybody out? Maybe he's still 'hurt'.

[kramnoj]

It's gotta be either one or the other: Bush is hurt and still pitching, in which case the management/staff are morons

 

Have I argued any differently? I think managing a pitching staff is incredibly difficult, and it's not clear at all to me that the Brewers combination of training staff and management are good at the process of identifying when a pitcher shouldn't be pitching and communicating with a pitcher to know when they shouldn't be pitching. All I've argued is that a healthy Bush and Suppan make this team a lot better. I've never argued that this organization would be a guarantee to make that happen.

 

Even on the outs, Pittsburgh was hitting Suppan like a slow pitch softball pitcher.

 

Suppan is not often dominant. Suppan relies on games like his most recent one to achieve his success.

[PeaveyFury]

Obviously we disagree on DM's motives -- you think that DM made a move to get Capellan - one of the Braves top starting pitching prospects -- based on some publication's assessment. I would hope DM would not be taking that publication's information that seriously.

 

Talk about blatantly putting words in someone's mouth. I maintain that you're desperately trying to dig yourself out of a hole here, but I digress. It's really beyond the point where there's any value to me in debating/reading much of anything of yours on these boards going forward.