Melvin on next year's pitching

[TooLiveBrew]

Who said that? Melvin actually said in a recent interview he probably should've pursued Lowe harder. There's no indication that he didn't want to play here.

 

You're right trwi, and my apologies for getting my head mixed up. The guy that 'didn't want to pitch' somewhere was for sure Randy Johnson, though I'm pretty sure Lowe made a comment about wanting to go back & pitch on the East Coast. I'll try to find it.

 

 

You're right that I'm making a generalized statement about the status of our current major league roster. Just because it's rather generalized though doesn't really make it untrue.

 

And just because it's not untrue doesn't mean it's a fair critique -- it's too general. That's my point about 'find some examples'. What you're calling for happens very, very little, and really has next to nothing to do with who exactly is the GM. If that weren't true, there would be numerous examples to cite. This, to me, is akin to 'Playoff teams don't do [event X]'.

 

 

Sorry if you don't like my lack of specifics, but in the end some teams have found a way and Melvin has not.

 

It's not so much your lack of specifics. It's the lack of quantity of tangible examples. You keep talking about these "teams", yet outside of DET with Edwin Jackson & ATL with Javy Vazquez, you don't have any others. I understand being frustrated, but without keeping things in perspective I think you can go overboard with unrealistic expectations.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know if there's anything directly quoting Lowe on wanting to play on the East Coast, but here's what I could find...

 

Jan. 6 2009

Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he's "not in on" free agent Derek Lowe.

The Brewers could really use him, but they don't want to spend that much money to fill one hole and they know Lowe would prefer to pitch on the East Coast anyway. The Brewers are one of the teams interested in Braden Looper.

(source: Dodgers.mlb.com)

Dec. 16 2008

SI.com's Jon Heyman believes the Cubs are showing interest in free agent Derek Lowe.

Lowe would prefer to pitch on the East Coast, but if the Yankees and Andy Pettitte can work out their differences, there might not be a AL or NL East contender willing to give him the dollars he wants.

(source: SI.com)

There are several other instances of this same type of statement being repeated, so there wouldn't be much point in me just posting the same thing again & again.

[tigerbrew]

For some reason though, people seem to be hesitant to hold Melvin accountable and want to act as though he was "dealt" a bad hand entering the last offseason. His bad hand was his own doing. You can't isolate just certain moves or opportunities or offseasons at this point. With how long his tenure has been, the overall result is what counts and fully falls on his shoulders.

I agree with the above statement. During preseason, this is what Melvin said about this year's rotation in this McCalvy article.

1. In your view, what are the strengths of this team and its vulnerabilities?

The strength is that we can run five starting pitchers out there. I look around at other teams, and there is a lot of competition for fourth and fifth starters. We don't have that, and we have five guys who are all capable of pitching and winning in the big leagues.

Then, the other big strength is that we have a lineup of eight regular players who are back from last year. I guess you can say there is a question about whether Billy Hall is going to be a regular everyday guy [at third base], but all of the other positions are guys capable of playing 140-150 games. There's no platooning, there's no competition at those positions. It's not like there's a rookie breaking into any position, or a rookie breaking into our rotation, for that matter.

Seems to me, DM was very satisfied with his rotation and that's why he wasn't aggressive at all in upgrading SP through trades during preseason. Instead, all we heard from DM during preseason was him debunking trade rumors for starting pitchers.

 

DM's comments about our SP is our strength is also pretty bewildering to me, considering that most pundits at that time were saying the Brewers rotation was the Achilles' heel to their playoff hopes. Now it seems rather funny to hear DM change his tune months later, as if no one knew that our rotation would turn out to be poor.

 

Another article from preseason that make me chuckle, Melvin's expectation: Win the division. How does Melvin expect to win the division with a below average rotation? I guess Melvin would say anything to sell more tickets, way to mislead Brewers fans Doug. Sadly, Billy Castro got the short end of that stick and ended up scapegoated by DM despite over two decades of loyal and dedicated service to the organization.

[piccione88]

What was Melvin supposed to say, that he doesn't think we are very good team because our rotation isn't very good. How would that help the team in any way?

[Ennder]

Seems to me, DM was very satisfied with his rotation and that's why he wasn't aggressive at all in upgrading SP through trades during preseason. Instead, all we heard from DM during preseason was him debunking trade rumors for starting pitchers

 

Once he got Looper there really was no reason to get another major league starter and what he said was pretty accurate. The weakness of the team was not having any depth behind the 5 guys so when Parra struggled there was no one to replace him and when Bush and Suppan both got hurt the rotation crumbled. I'm sure Melvin would have liked to add someone better than Looper but it just didn't work out, once we got Looper I'm not sure what you expected, I guess Parra to the minors would have been the only solution but before the season there was no reason to expect to need to do that.

[RU Rah Rah]

Ennder wrote:

 

The weakness of the team was not having any depth behind the 5 guys so when Parra struggled there was no one to replace him and when Bush and Suppan both got hurt the rotation crumbled.

Exactly. I think that, at least in theory, 1-5 were OK on Opening Day, but I never expected all of them to make 30+ starts each. (In fact, it wouldn't have surprised me if none of them had reached that plateau.) I guess DM thought that McClung and Villy could fill the void, but that was wishful thinking.

[brewers19]

Another article from preseason that make me chuckle, Melvin's expectation: Win the division. How does Melvin expect to win the division with a below average rotation? I guess Melvin would say anything to sell more tickets, way to mislead Brewers fans Doug.

And yet if he had said what you apparently think he should have (i.e., 'We're just going to tread water this season' or the like), he would have been crucified for those comments just as much if not more. God forbid that someone sets a goal of success.

 

I'm fairly amazed how many people expect a GM's comments in the press to be brazenly honest assessments of the organization. It's PR, and shouldn't be taken at face value.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Going into this season, I would have ordered the Brewers rotation as follows:

 

#1 Gallardo

#2 Parra

#3 Bush

#4 Suppan

#5 Looper

#6 McClung

#7 Villanueva

#8 Dillard

#9 Capuano (expected to return mid-season)

#10 N. Green

#11 C. Wright

#12 M. Burns

 

In hindsight, that list looks pretty weak. However, I did not expect them to pitch this poorly. Suppan, Bush, McClung all missed significant time this year due to injury (including Capuano not recovering). Parra, Villanueva, Dillard, N.Green, C.Wright and to some extent Looper have all been ineffective. I would say that other than Gallardo, none of the starting pitchers performed up to expectation.

 

You can blame Melvin all you want, but it is up to the players to perform. I agree Melvin should have gotten better depth (I felt that way at the begining of the season) but I did not expect the pitching to perform this poorly. The staff has collapsed this season and with it our chances of a playoff run. I won't let Melvin off the hook, but he doesn't deserve to be fired because of this.

[Invader3K]

When you don't have enough high ceiling talent in your organization and you aren't able to buy it in FA, if you won't trade for it then how are you going to acquire it? This is pretty simple logic from my point of view.

 

This sums up my feelings perfectly. I go back to how much the fans have supported this team too...we deserve better than to have the team just sit on their hands when they have an obvious problem. I also realize that what Melvin is saying now may not necessarily jive with what he does this off-season, too. But like you said, if you're not going to draft or sign pitching, you have to trade for it.

[TheCrew07]

Zach Jackson being one of the best examples kind of proves his point. His fastball has averaged 88.5 mph in the majors. He's exactly the soft-tossing, knows how to pitch, pitch to contact guy that TheCrew07 is talking about.

I could have sworn when we got him he was pitching in the mid 90's but I could be wrong I kind of forgotten about him. But De La Rosa is not a soft tossing player though. I guess you could put Vargas in there also. Others you can add to the list: Jose Capellan, Greg Aquino, Seth McClung, Danny Kolb, Scott Linebrink, and Francisco Cordero you could also add Justin Lehr to the list when the Brewers acquired him he had an average fastball of 92.7. All of these players are hard throwers and Not all of the players Melvin has gotten are soft-tossing, knows how to pitch, pitch to contact guys.

I was talking about starting pitching? What do relievers have to do with starting pitching?

 

Lehr may have started this week against the Brewers, but he was a reliever in this organization. Actually Melvin has taken the opposite approach to to relievers, he gets all the hard throwing arms he can off the scrap heap and throws them against the wall to see what sticks.

 

JDLR remains the single young high ceiling starting pitcher Melvin acquired in Milwaukee, and he was acquired prior to Jones and Rogers going under the knife. I'm not sure why I keep having to post this same idea, it's incredibly straightforward... There is a wide gulf between having great stuff and being a good pitcher. To revisit the Overbay trade for the last time... Jackson, Gross, and Bush were high draft picks, but they simply were not the upside picks that the Brewers were making during that same period, they didn't possess impact talent. Ennder is fond of saying we traded an average 1B for an average SP, but that's how the players ended up today. Overbay was traded for 3 very average prospects at the time, it was a quantity over quality deal, neither of the pitchers had "stuff" and Gross while being a patient hitter with some pop, wasn't an impact talent in any sense.

 

Jones and Rogers getting hurt didn't screw up the franchise anymore than giving up on JDLR did. There was plenty of time between those events and this season to acquire a talented starting pitcher, it just didn't happen. Just 1 talented pitcher may have been enough...

[PilprinBuddha]

I think Melvin was satisfied with the pitching at the start of the season, but then Parra started to fall apart, Bush got hurt, and Suppan was dreadful. Then McClung and Villanueva both became junk. That is 5 pitchers who were being counted on heavily for the season...that hurts.

[PeaveyFury]

JDLR remains the single young high ceiling starting pitcher Melvin acquired in Milwaukee

 

Jose Capellan can't figure out why you continue to ignore him, being that he was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball when Milwaukee traded for him.

 

I think Melvin was satisfied with the pitching at the start of the season, but then Parra started to fall apart, Bush got hurt, and Suppan was dreadful. Then McClung and Villanueva both became junk. That is 5 pitchers who were being counted on heavily for the season...that hurts.

 

I think this puts it rather well. Villanueva was a very good pitcher for us in his time in the majors, McClung was exceptionally useful last year, and no one could have expected Parra to be the trainwreck he's been this year. A lot of stuff had to fall into place for the rotation to get us to the playoffs, and pretty much everything that could go wrong did.

[endaround]

Zach Jackson was in the 2005 futures game. Can we stop pretending that a 6'5" left hander with AA success at age 22 was some low ceiling fill in?

[Fatter than Joey]

Jose Capellan can't figure out why you continue to ignore him, being that he was a top 30 prospect in all of baseball when Milwaukee traded for him.

 

The Braves had given up on Capellan, as he could not locate his off-speed stuff -- We constantly rag on player/prospect ratings and projections here, as they are generally inaccurate and sloppily thrown together, I am not sure they should be used as any sort of evidence - If DM thought he was getting a top 30 prospect from the Braves (of all teams) for Dan Kolb -- he should have probably been fired shortly thereafter.

 

I have to think Capellan was a buy-low opportunity for DM -- it didn't pan out, as is the risk with these sorts of deals.

 

You should tell Capellan to figure out a 2nd pitch -- it will prevent him from being ignored in the future.

[endaround]

But Capellan is exactly the type of high ceiling guy that was stated the Brewers didn't try to get.

[brains and braun]

I think that's true as well, but to say he was "satisfied," I think is not quite accurate. I think he was hoping against hope that the those guys would hold up, much in the same way someone with an old clunker of a car figures on getting one more year out of it. Melvin was obviously behind the eight ball in terms of acquiring pitching, and will continue to be, but I doubt, and sincerely hope that he didn't really think the guys here would get it done eight or nine times out of ten.

[Fatter than Joey]

But Capellan is exactly the type of high ceiling guy that was stated the Brewers didn't try to get.

 

We may be arguing semantics here --

 

If you are saying that Capellan was tanking in value, and there was a good chance that we could get some value out of him, I think that is correct.

 

If you are saying that Capellan was a potential solid starter or closer-type -- I'd have to disagree -- When the Brewers got him, it was clear he wasn't going to develop into a starter, and hoping he would be more than a solid BP pitcher was probably a stretch.

[SoCalBrewfan]

That's hindsight, though, or maybe revisionist. At the time the Brewers got him, Capellan was very highly regarded, and had torn through the minors as a starter after tommy john surgery. It's just not correct to say 'it was clear he wasn't going to develop into a starter.' There were some suggestions that his repertoire was better suited to the bullpen, there were differences of opinion on that point...the Braves had him starting, and the Brewers at least publicly said he might be a starter.

 

"The Brewers tried to recover from their pitching setbacks with a bold trade, sending all-star closer Dan Kolb to Atlanta for righthanders Jose Capellan, the Braves' top pitching prospect, and Alec Zumwalt. Capellan will get a shot to make Milwaukee's rotation in spring training."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/04top10s/brewers.html

[Teatoe993]

I seem to remember Dana Eveland having great potential as well. The fact of the matter is that it's such a crapshoot as to how these prospects will perform. Assuming Melvin did trade Escobar/Gamel/whatever for some top pitching prospects like Bucholz. He could flame out just as easily. And here we will be whining about how Melvin got fleeced in the deal. Just because Jackson is lights out in Detroit doesn't mean that any GM can pull off the same deal with equal success. The fact of the matter is that Detroit just got lucky as easily as they could have gotten screwed. Melvin is doing what he can with the resources we have. We have a medium sized payroll, but we have to pretty much overpay for any FA because Milwaukee is not seen as a top destination. Maybe Doug can somehow move the city of Milwaukee to the west coast where the FAs want to be. He's also drafted many pitchers in the early rounds of the draft. Many have been injured/suspended. His fault? And what team would trade away a starting pitcher that was already a legit & cheap #1-2? The only aces that can be had for trade are gonna be rentals. That's how it is. All you can really do is build from within and take some gambles in the trade market and hope you get lucky like Detroit did this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

There were some suggestions that his repertoire was better suited to the bullpen, there were differences of opinion on that point...the Braves had him starting

 

The Braves did start him -- but he didn't have enough pitches to get through the lineup. He was pretty miserable as a MLB starter, and he didn't do well for the Brewers as a starter in Nash, and of course he never started for the Brewers.

 

I am not saying it wasn't a worthwhile gamble -- I just don't think by the time Capellan got to the Brewers he was (or should have been) viewed as a potential starter.

[kramnoj]

I'm not sure why Lowe is being talked about as one who got away. He signed for 4 years and $60M. If he's on this team, we don't have Hoffman, we may not have Counsell, heck, we may have had to trade away Cameron to the Yankees for Melky and pay part of Cam's salary. This year's team isn't better, and then we have $45M left for 3 years for a 37 year old pitcher. And 4/60 is what he signed for when the Mets dropped out and settled for Perez. The Brewers would have had to outbid the Braves for Lowe. Before last season I was hopeful that Lowe could have been had for 2 years at $10M each or so. I'm glad the Brewers didn't get Lowe for the contract that he got.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Whether or not he should have viewed as a potential starter, he certainly was. He had all of two major league starts with Atlanta, but had gone something like 14-5 at three minor league stops. Everything you read from the times mentions the possibility that he'd end up as a power closer, but that he'd be allowed to fail as a starter first...and Peavey's right that he was a top 25 prospect in the BA top 100, ahead of, among others, JJ Hardy and Ryan Howard. (And Cole Hamels.) Here's a contemporary writeup while he was Atlanta that nicely captures the questions about Capellan:

 

Like in the Futures Game, Capellan began the game throwing primarily fastballs. It's a great pitch, 96-99 mph, but without anything else caused some problems. In the first inning, Capellan allowed two hits, two walks and a run, pitches out of a bases loaded, one out jam. This was because Jose started to mix in his curve, a low-80s pitch with sharp, downward bite. It's a good pitch, and sees problems when he leaves it up in the zone. He finished the game well, retiring eight of the last nine batters he faced.

 

With thick thighs powering his fastball, Capellan is reminiscent of the Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez type pitcher. After watching the Futures Game, I speculated Capellan may be best out of the bullpen, but I think he could have a Colon-like career in starting. Bartolo's career started as a 24-year-old in 1997, where he had a 5.65 ERA in 94 innings. Atlanta's hoping that this season's cup of coffee will bypass problems in 2005. Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright and Paul Byrd are all free agents, and could conceivably be replaced by Horacio Ramirez, Capellan, and Dan Meyer.

 

You might also view the BTF transaction oracle, that clearly viewed Capellan as a starter until proven otherwise, though does say he might end up a closer in another year:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/braves_acquired_kolb/

[PeaveyFury]

If you are saying that Capellan was a potential solid starter or closer-type -- I'd have to disagree -- When the Brewers got him, it was clear he wasn't going to develop into a starter, and hoping he would be more than a solid BP pitcher was probably a stretch.

 

As Socal said, this is completely hindsight. The very offseason he was traded, he was ranked the 25th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. Unless FTJ knew something that the folks at BA were unaware of, this claim that he was a pitcher on the decline that the Brewers shouldn't have expected much out of is absolutely wrong.

[Fatter than Joey]

He had all of two major league starts with Atlanta, but had gone something like 14-5 at three minor league stops.

 

I think 2 starts were sufficient to see he hadn't developed a 2nd pitch for MLB.

 

The very offseason he was traded, he was ranked the 25th best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.

 

So what. People and publications rank players every year -- they are often wrong, and I suspect you have no idea the methodology that BA used to rank Capellan over whoever was #26, yet somehow it is supposed to be accepted as evidence?

 

Unless FTJ knew something that the folks at BA were unaware of,

 

It is certainly possible -- but really irrelevant -- What I would hope is that DM isn't making trades based on what publications are ranking players at. I would certainly hope that DM knew a lot more about Jose Capellan than the good folks at BA before he traded for him -- but perhaps DM waits for his annual previews before considering trades, I really don't know.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Bottom line is that you are claiming that nobody in their right mind thought Capellan would be a starter. And there's evidence suggesting that's not true. Whatever the problems of BA, it and the other stuff I quoted were at least contemporary, without the benefit of hindsight...and while they all acknowledge that Capellan might end up in the pen, they all also suggest he'll be tried as a starter first. You claim two starts (which I'm sure you watched?) were plenty to know he'd never have an off speed pitch and forever exile him to the pen...really?

 

Capellan and delaRosa are two high-upside young pitchers Melvin has acquired, and they illustrate the pitfalls of the strategy. It's easy in retrospect to know which of those guys won't pan out, but not so clear at the time...and, as in the case of delaRosa or Edwin Jackson, it might take a few years and a couple of organizations before a talented young pitcher turns into an average or better major league contributor.