Melvin on next year's pitching

[Invader3K]

Braun is too affordable to trade. By mid next year he'll basically have completely earned his entire contract, and we still have him for six more years.

[Oldcity]

Ha. That Braun contract is so great.

 

Melvin is getting a raw deal here. People are just sitting back and picking pitchers he could have had without saying what he would have needed to give up. Kazmir, Jackson, Jurrjens, Cain. How do you know the Brewers even had a chance? How do you know he didn't try? TH reported yesterday that Melvin tried to acquire Jackson this off-season. That would be the second time Melvin has targeted Jackson, as he wanted Jackson years ago when he traded Richie Sexson. The fact of the matter is that most of the time teams will find better deals among the 29 other teams than the Brewers.

[LouisEly]

Honestly, it just sounds to me like he's already making excuses to hedge against future fan disappointment. If he approaches this off-season with the same mentality he did last year, I'm going to be extremely upset. He should have realized that sitting on his hands isn't going to improve the team by now.

 

Let's be realistic:

 

#1) The Brewers have a limited payroll. While it is higher than pre-Mark A., it still is limited. Thus why taking on Kazmir and the $20M he is due the next two years for what sounds like three good prospects was too much of a gamble considering Kazmir's performance this year.

 

#2) You can suggest all the trades you want until you are blue in the face it doesn't mean the other team is going to accept it. Bingo, nate. No one knows who was offered for what, and no one knows if both parties would have accepted. It takes two to tango.

 

#3) Just as Milwaukee isn't going to trade away good young pitching, neither is anyone else.

 

We don't know exactly how much of a say Melvin has come draft time, but a lot of that was Jack Z and whomever reported to Jack Z. There was a rumor that Jack Z. was against drafting Gallardo, and I shudder to think where this team would be had Jack Z. gotten his way. If Melvin was the one who overruled Jack Z., then we owe a lot to Melvin right now.

[bando1234]

As far as pitching depth goes I think Melvin expected Wright, Green & possibly Capuano to fill out the 6, 7 & 8 pitchers.

[DougJones43]

Thus why taking on Kazmir and the $20M he is due the next two years...

But not being able to take on a contract such as that has more to do with the crappy contracts Melvin has given out than the overall payroll ceiling. His mistakes dating back a few years still have a ripple effect on handcuffing the team today, and he is totally responsible for that. He's paid more for Suppan for '09 and '10 than Kazmir would have been owed during his final two years, and obviously Kazmir would have been a much better bet to actually be productive. Kazmir's worst projection will probably beat Suppan's best next year.

 

For some reason though, people seem to be hesitant to hold Melvin accountable and want to act as though he was "dealt" a bad hand entering the last offseason. His bad hand was his own doing. You can't isolate just certain moves or opportunities or offseasons at this point. With how long his tenure has been, the overall result is what counts and fully falls on his shoulders. Considering Melvin has had most of his best players for quite cheap during the past handful of seasons, an $80M payroll should have been plenty to work with to try and fill out a decent rotation -- however he has bungled a majority of that payroll allotment quite badly, leaving us with less options than we should have.

[Ennder]

The Suppan deal is certainly bad, Riske getting hurt really clouds that comment.

 

Melvin was most certainly dealt a bad hand when he started though, we had one of the worst franchises in baseball when we started and while people are quick to applaud Jack Z and not give Melvin credit for 'rebuilding' the offense through the draft they seem to blame Melvin and ignore the fact that Jack Z's history at drafting pitching is beyond horrible. The fault and applause for these things belongs somewhere in the middle.

[greeg35]

I hope Melvin takes a serious look internally for some potential pitching help; but for some reason he seems loath to do so in favor of crusty inferior veterans. Butler, Dillard, Cody, Wooten, Axford, maybe even Jones , Rodgers, or Braddock could be of help at some point next year. I know it would be ideal to let guys develop a bit more and that they'll be raw; but they'd be replacing guys like Burns for gosh sakes--they'd be instant upgrades.

[DougJones43]

Melvin did have a certain stake in the drafting of our hitting as well as pitching. He deserves an equal amount of credit and blame respectively. Together with Jack Z, they did a good job of getting hitters and a poor job of drafting pitching.

 

Ultimately though, it's on Melvin's doorstep to make sure the Major League roster is balanced. He hoarded position players from the low minors all the way up to the big league level, refusing to part with any of them. It's a long list including Weeks, Hardy, Fielder, Hart, Braun, Gamel, Escobar, and probably soon to be Lawrie as well. People gripe that we can't be sure of the opportunities he's had to obtain pitching, but you can't honestly believe there weren't potential moves out there during the past 3-4 years involving one or more of these guys. The only one he gave up (La Porta) netted us a 3-month rental player.

[young guns]

You can say Melvin has been the GM for 7 years and that he has had plenty of time to get pitching, but the reality is that for most of those years, the team was horrible. It's taken most of those years just to get the team to a position where it could sign FA guys like Suppan and Looper. Maybe he could have traded for some pitching a few years ago when we were starting to draft better players, but it would have been wasted with no offense and it probably would have cost some of the players that are now stars on this team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ultimately though, it's on Melvin's doorstep to make sure the Major League roster is balanced.

 

DJ, you keep repeating the same generalized comment, that 'Melvin should have done more.' Instead of just throwing that generalization out there, let's hear some ideas you propose. As far as I can tell, there was one trade made last offseason that would satisfy your desires -- Edwin Jackson to DET. Now, beyond the one trade that one GM out of 30 was able to swing, what else are you after here? Melvin listed off great examples of the volatility of the FA market in the McCalvy article, and I would venture to guess that you'd be one of the first in line slamming Melvin had he signed Lowe (who didn't want to play here) & crippled our payroll by not identifying good SPing. What he did was play the lowest risk (short contract) on the FA market, and thankfully he was right to do so. Long, expensive FA contracts are never/rarely a good idea.

 

And before you talk about how he's had X number of years, really, I'd like to hear you provide some tangible examples and/or comparisons. Trades that actually happened. It's not that I doubt you can find any, it's that the blanket statements of how bad Melvin has been -- like "People gripe that we can't be sure of the opportunities he's had to obtain pitching, but you can't honestly believe there weren't potential moves out there during the past 3-4 years involving one or more of these guys" -- without any tangible comparisons are getting tired. I really hope your response isn't along the lines of, 'It's not my job, that's Melvin's job.'

 

And for the record I agree with you that the use of LaPorta was ill-advised, but I think Melvin saw a shot to go after the WS (not just the postseason) & took it.

[Ennder]

We haven't had much in the way of prospects to trade until about 2 seasons ago so it really is more of a short term issue not getting a good trade. Two years ago it didn't even look like we needed a trade since we had Gallardo and Parra coming and a decent rotation before injuries. I don't think Melvin is amazing or anything but I think he is getting a lot of flack for the results of this season more than anything. Arguments that he should have done more or drafted better over the past 4 years or whatever make a lot of sense but just saying he should have done more last off season is not being very realistic.

[BrewCrewForever]

I just hope Doug can work out a trade for a pitcher that can bridge the gap between Gallardo and Parra/Bush/Suppan in 2010. Then I hope guys like Rogers, Jones and Braddock pitch well enough next year to be candidates for the 2011 rotation.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Don't forget that Melvin acquired Capuano, Doug Davis, Bush, Ohka, Capellan, DelaRosa, Villaneuva, in recent years, some in big deals, some for pocket change. Not all those guys worked out, and some were not so young, but it's not like Melvin has never acquired youngish pitchers capable of major league success...those guys collectively are a solid bunch, and have had a lot to do what what successes this team has had during the Melvin era. Add to that conjuring Shouse out of thin air, getting some good service out of the likes of Turnbow, Wise, Santos, more recently Coffey and DeFelice....Melvin has had pretty good success with short to medium term solutions. To say that Melvin has never added quality pitching is just not true.

 

This year everyone knew the depth wasn't there...last-minute acquisitions Chase Wright and Nick Green were maybe decent gambles but neither has turned out to be a solid option to slot in after the inevitable pitching breakdowns. This team needed the rotation to stay intact, and Parra to be the #2 starter. That was a gamble with obvious risks, and it failed. (They also needed something out of Hart and Hardy, which seemed a better bet at least in JJ's case, but that's another story.)

 

But I've seen other teams struggle with the back end of the rotation, including both the local teams out here, rich successful teams with solid systems. (Yeah, the Dodgers haven't had too much to complain about, but as the Rockies got closer, local writers have freaked out about the team and the rotation...still I'd take their problems and their team ERA any day.) Pitching is hard to guess on, and teams prize the good cheap young arms everyone is looking for. And there's some pretty impressive hindsight on display. Who really knew Marquis and delaRosa would save the Rockies rotation this year? Who honestly projected three Cardinal starters would have combined for 500 innings (!) of 160ish ERA+ (!?) at the end of August? Who had Edwin Jackson as a Cy Young candidate?

 

The two criticisms I would offer would be as follows. First, as widely noted, the farm system hasn't helped the cause the way we've needed. Seems like people choose to blame or praise Jack Z or Melvin selectively depending on the point they're trying to make. Still, that's clearly an issue...and it's forced Melvin to make trades to get guys like those I listed above. He did spend a lot of his chips getting Linebrink and Sabathia the last two years, and that's one good deal and one meh one IMO...both illustrate that you have to pay a premium for major league pitching during the season, and that it takes time to reload via the draft. The other beef I've historically had with Melvin is his level of commitment to young players...I think he's typically trading for major leaguers who are ready right now rather than prospects, and perhaps getting less upside as a result. I think that's been particularly true as the team has improved, and the team feels pressure to win instead of develop, and for that reason I think the team hasn't showed patience with certain young players of late.

 

And to me that fits in with the failure to plug in a guy that people would recognize as a solid #2 or 3 starter. The front of the rotation guys you can plug in for several years had have been relatively few and far between. (CC of course gets major props for what he did, but that was a short term fix.) But those guys might be the toughest commodity to acquire in baseball. You need to grow those guys yourself, or pay big for them in trades or free agency, or be smart and lucky enough to get one cheap and do some developing. (You could just get really lucky and pick up an Edwin Jackson before he busts out...but before you anoint Detroit as geniuses at spotting breakout pitchers, ask what they were thinking in giving up Jurrjens?) IMO Melvin did a decent job of picking up the likes of Capuano a few years back but that's his biggest failure of late...surely he's as aware of that as we are, but I wonder whether he'll rethink his recent approach.

 

If you prefer the tl/dr version: pitching is tough, but Melvin's track record isn't as bad as some would suggest above...and hindsight on a message board is a lot easier than actually building a major league rotation.

[dlk9s]

Whose fault is it that a majority of our resources have been tied up in the David Riskes, the Bill Halls, the Eric Gagnes, and the Jeff Suppans of the league rather than being used in a more effective manner?

I'm not sure whose fault it is that Riske suffered a major injury, but I don't think it's Doug Melvin's (and Riske's contract is reasonable). And please explain what resources are tied up in Eric Gagne?

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I don't know of too many organizations that depend on their ability to build their pitching staffs through trade. The real problem with our staff is either that we haven't drafted pitchers well or that we struggle developing potential pitchers.

[trwi7]

I would venture to guess that you'd be one of the first in line slamming Melvin had he signed Lowe (who didn't want to play here)

 

Who said that? Melvin actually said in a recent interview he probably should've pursued Lowe harder. There's no indication that he didn't want to play here.

 

And please explain what resources are tied up in Eric Gagne?

 

12% of our payroll for a year. That's a pretty significant resource.

 

As for trades. How about Jason Hammel? He has pretty good stuff, has some upside and was traded to the Rockies for Aneury Rodriguez.

[Teatoe993]

I don't think Melvin is to blame for the injuries Rogers and Jones have suffered. I don't think it was him packing Jeffress' bong either. It's not like we haven't been drafting any pitching. These dudes were all round 1 picks and should be contributing to the organization by now.

[DougJones43]

And before you talk about how he's had X number of years, really, I'd like to hear you provide some tangible examples and/or comparisons...I really hope your response isn't along the lines of, 'It's not my job, that's Melvin's job.'

There's been lots of examples cited here by people who pay closer attention than myself. I'm not going to go back and dissect every trade from the past 4 years to prove a point that there has to be pitching to have been had for position players as talented as ours. You're right that I'm making a generalized statement about the status of our current major league roster. Just because it's rather generalized though doesn't really make it untrue.

 

There are teams (like the Braves) who have been able to get the job done as far as putting together a respectable staff without building it through the farm system. I mean, look at the deal for Vazquez. When you stack an acquisition like that up against the uninspired signings of Looper and such, that's pretty significant in explaining the current state of their starting rotation vs the state of the Brewers. Sorry if you don't like my lack of specifics, but in the end some teams have found a way and Melvin has not.

 

12% of our payroll for a year. That's a pretty significant resource.

Correct. I mean, it's nice that it was only a one year deal and all, but it's not like that money would have just evaporated if it wasn't spent in 2008. Deals like that likely have an effect budgeting for a smaller-market organization even when they're "off the books."

[MNBrew]

Someone earlier listed David Weathers as a guy Melvin misjudged in getting. The guy had a couple shoddy outings shortly after we got him, sure, but lately now he's been pitching like you'd expect. His track record this year specifically and the past 10 years in general would seem to indicate getting Weathers into the bullpen mix provides a much better option than Jorge Julio, Mike Burns, Villanueva, Dillard, McClung, etc.

 

Overall, Melvin has done well. They've had good guys coming up and some who have stumbled or flamed out still were darn good talents. There's NO sure way to know how it'll all pan out. And Melvin's in 100 times better a position than anyone on these message boards to make the right call. Just because you wanted him to land a young stud pitcher doesn't mean he actually had a chance to do so.

 

Is the team's rotation a mess? Absolutely. But in the interview at the root of this thread, Melvin's just being honest and realistic. To rag on him incessantly for that more often than not, based on the tone I infer from many remarks I'm reading, would seem to indicate that in the minds of many, the Brewers' situation is incurable to the point where anyone who they might hire inevitably would be able to do a better job than Melvin could. I cannot disagree more strongly with such a contention. I don't think Melvin's a saint. But it's not a perfect world, developing pitching isn't an exact science, and mind control over good FA pitchers and 29 other GMs just isn't possible. Melvin has missed at times (Todd Ritchie, anyone, or hanging onto Turnbow so long?). But no one really could've projected such a massive regression from BOTH Parra & Villanueva, plus a trend reversal by McClung -- all 3 being counted on as vital cogs on the pitching staff -- plus injuries to Bush, Riske (extremely durable prior to becoming a Brewer), and Suppan (though the problem there is more than injuries, I'm convinced) -- or Looper giving up HRs at a batting practice rate. The balance was tedious to begin with, but who could've anticipated this many negative things occurring and knocking the team off track SO badly -- esp. against so many crappy teams? Anyone can say, "But Melvin (or "they") should've known." Yeah, and you can say that with every team every year. It could've happened in Milwaukee, whether it was 2009, 2008, 1984, 2002, or 1982. But that logic is horribly weak and purely hindsight.

 

Doug Melvin knows better than any of us how putrid the pitching has been. And you know he's going to do all he feels he can to remedy that without screwing up the long-term future of the team. But part of his ability to succeed lies with FA's interests/attitudes, as well as the 29 other GMs in MLB. Melvin made a series of outstanding moves early in his Milwaukee tenure that totally fleeced the other teams involved. Maybe that's why some teams don't want to agree to his terms. . . . Of course, I'm just guessing at that. But then again, so is everyone else in their assertions that Melvin is the root of all this pitching development evil and the lack of a better rotation in Milwaukee.

 

(edits for grammar & clarity)

[nate82]

The value in free agency is not as low as some people think it is. There are plenty of good buy low candidates that Melvin could get in free agency some are very risky while others are only moderately risky.

 

In free agency next year you have Lackey (the best pitcher in free agency), Escobar, Harden, Bedard, and Sheets as the top 5 pitchers in free agency. You can probably eliminate Lackey and Sheets from the list of possible players coming to Milwaukee in free agency. You can put a question mark behind Harden and Escobar and you can put a million questions marks depending on Bedard's health in coming to Milwaukee. Escobar is probably the more logical player that the Brewers could sign a Gagne like contract to Escobar would be a good move by Melvin and rather shrewd also. Since Escobar has been injured the last two years I doubt he will get a lot of attention in the off season as he should. The Brewers maybe able to steal him away with a high dollar amount and low years. If he has a great year he can leave for free agency the next year and get a bigger contract.

 

Harden will probably cost way to much in years and dollars for the Brewers to be able to get him especially with his injury concerns. It would be like signing Sheets to an extension last off season. Too many injury concerns for the Brewers to lock up someone like that for such a long period of time.

 

Both the Cubs and the Angels may not be able to resign their players that are leaving for free agency. The Angels will definitely not be able to resign both Lackey and Escobar and I have my doubts on the ability of the Cubs retaining Harden. With the Angels getting Kazmir and his contract that is a sign to me that the Angels believe they will not be able to sign Lackey and Vlad and they would have to make a decision on those two and I believe the Angels are going to go with Vlad over Lackey now that they have Kazmir.

 

This should be an interesting off season though.

[TheCrew07]

I thought I had said all I had to say about this other threads but I really dislike the whole take about "we don't know that Melvin didn't try".

 

This also isn't about last off season, so I beat the Hardy drum, yay me, I could care less that he didn't make that deal, but I do care that he hasn't made any deal for top of the rotation talent outside of Sabathia who was a rental. Jones was hurt in 2003 again in 2004, Rogers in 2006. It's not like other organizations don't loose young pitchers to injury as well, this problem has been a long time coming.

 

When you don't have enough high ceiling talent in your organization and you aren't able to buy it in FA, if you won't trade for it then how are you going to acquire it? This is pretty simple logic from my point of view. We didn't draft enough top of the rotation talent, we aren't able to afford Sabathia types in FA, so the only avenue we had to acquire it was trades. Other teams have made numerous deals for pitching in Melvin's tenure in Milwaukee, there have been deals out there. I will agree recently the market shifted making it tougher to acquire young arms but that doesn't give him a free pass for acquiring a ton of pitchers with mediocre stuff. All of the pitchers he's acquired were 4s and 5s stuff wise.. for example it's only determination and pitchability that makes Bush a number 3 instead of a 5, his stuff just isn't that good.

 

It isn't revisionist history to say that the team could have parted with Hart, Hardy, Hall, or Weeks... it's simply much easier to buy production out of position players than it is to buy pitching. I'm very much an acquire the pitching and buy the bats type of guy. I'm deathly afraid that Melvin will go after an Ian Kennedy type rather than a Phil Hughes type as his history suggests he's favors acquiring pitchers with average stuff who know how to pitch.

[nate82]

I'm deathly afraid that Melvin will go after an Ian Kennedy type rather than a Phil Hughes type as his history suggests he's favors acquiring pitchers with average stuff who know how to pitch.

Not true at all. De La Rosa and Zach Jackson both weren't who know how to pitch type of pitchers. De La Rosa definitely didn't have average stuff it was his command that was below average. Phil Hughes types will take a Gamel or a Escobar to get and I'm not sure the Brewers should trade someone like that. Especially Gamel with no replacement for Fielder in sight in the minors.

[trwi7]

Zach Jackson being one of the best examples kind of proves his point. His fastball has averaged 88.5 mph in the majors. He's exactly the soft-tossing, knows how to pitch, pitch to contact guy that TheCrew07 is talking about.

[nate82]

Zach Jackson being one of the best examples kind of proves his point. His fastball has averaged 88.5 mph in the majors. He's exactly the soft-tossing, knows how to pitch, pitch to contact guy that TheCrew07 is talking about.

I could have sworn when we got him he was pitching in the mid 90's but I could be wrong I kind of forgotten about him. But De La Rosa is not a soft tossing player though. I guess you could put Vargas in there also. Others you can add to the list: Jose Capellan, Greg Aquino, Seth McClung, Danny Kolb, Scott Linebrink, and Francisco Cordero you could also add Justin Lehr to the list when the Brewers acquired him he had an average fastball of 92.7. All of these players are hard throwers and Not all of the players Melvin has gotten are soft-tossing, knows how to pitch, pitch to contact guys.

[logan82]

I thought Zach Jack was in the low 90's, around 92.