Melvin on next year's pitching

[Invader3K]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/55946147.html "This off-season, Melvin sees it the same way and said he doesn't see many teams willing to trade a front-line pitcher, not even for a premier player. When Prince Fielder was brought up as a guy who might be able to bring back one of those pitches, Melvin said, "I'm not certain I want to do that." "It's still going to be very difficult," Melvin said. "The free agent list is again (short). … You're going to have to trade for someone having a down year and you have to hope you can turn a guy around. You're not going to be able to trade for guys with two and three ERA's." Honestly, it just sounds to me like he's already making excuses to hedge against future fan disappointment. If he approaches this off-season with the same mentality he did last year, I'm going to be extremely upset. He should have realized that sitting on his hands isn't going to improve the team by now.

[jackalope02ca]

But then there is the reality of it. We tried to sign CC and couldn't compete. Strike off the first 2-3 free agents again on this years list for the same reason. Do we really want another Jeff Suppan type contract. Then there isn't a lot left. Melvin is bang on with his comments. You can't just trade for an elite pitcher whenever you want. The same people who cry for his head now would be screaming for his head if the likes of Gamel, our top pitching in the minors, Escobar, etc were traded 3-5 in a package for a decent #1 or #2 type starter. I'm sure Melvin will try to trade for a top flight pitcher but the reality available to us is to trade for or sign a pitcher or 3 who have had down years and hope at least one of them has a major bounce back. Other teams don't want our crap. I think that was supported with the DFA of Bill Hall. JJ won't bring much in return as he is coming off a down year. We trade Prince and there goes the offense. The only one who might still have decent trade value is Weeks. Even though he's been hurt yet again someone might be willing to take a chance on him.

 

Melvin tried hard last year to get a starter. Lowe, Johnson and CC all said thanks but no thanks. Lets be a little realistic here. Melvin knows what we need. But the reality of it is this isn't a fantasy baseball league where trades get made every week.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Melvin missed out on the opportunity to acquire Kazmir as well. Im sure the rays didnt just decide to trade him yesterday. Melvin could have traded for kazmir before July 31 but once again he missed an opportunity to acquire a young pitcher with real upside.

 

That article is full of excuses for why we will suck again next season. Its time to fire Melvin and find a GM that actually values pitching.

[Baldkin]

Except you're wrong. Kazmir wasn't on the market 4 weeks ago. At least not for the Brewers. 4 weeks ago he was going to be part of a deal for Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.

Who could the Brewers have sent to the Rays?

[Ennder]

I think a lot of fans will be upset when Melvin does a good job next off season and we don't end up with a playoff calibre rotation. It just isn't very realistic.

[brewizard]

Honestly, it just sounds to me like he's already making excuses to hedge against future fan disappointment.

 

Melvin is blaming 'the league' and 'reality' for his failure to get front line pitching during his tenure here. Melvin's whole 'What should I have done?' thing is disingenuous at best. Melvin has been GM for years - not just last offseason. This year's pitching problems were a result of a years-long Melvin failure to address pitching. Getting CC for a half a season was bold, sure. But look where the team is now.

 

Melvin should stop blaming everything else and just admit that the process of drafting/trading for young upside pitching has not been handled well under his tenure. Just admit it, Doug! Stop giving us excuses!

[dvoiss]

Melvin missed out on the opportunity to acquire Kazmir as well. Im sure the rays didnt just decide to trade him yesterday. Melvin could have traded for kazmir before July 31 but once again he missed an opportunity to acquire a young pitcher with real upside.

 

That article is full of excuses for why we will suck again next season. Its time to fire Melvin and find a GM that actually values pitching.

What do you want Doug to do here? Too many people think you can just pick up the phone and land a Halladay or Peavy. It just doesn't work that way. If he wanted Kazmir he would have had to give up Escobar and/or Gamel. Do you really want that? I think those who are calling for Doug's head are a little unrealistic in their expectations.

[Invader3K]

Well, maybe it's time to find someone who will think a little bit more outside the box. Maybe Melvin's philosophy just does not fit where the Brewers are currently at as a franchise. I almost doubt if he really wants to stay here based on many of his public comments this season. He seems to specialize in rebuilding low level teams, and maybe it's time for him to move on from a team like the Brewers who should be contending at this point. I really do not want to go through another season like this one, before the wheels fall off the wagon completely and we're in full blown "rebuild" mode once Prince and others are gone.

[joepepsi]

Thinking outside the box probably involves trading Braun who has the most value of any player on the team. Finding a LF'er who can hit 25-30 homers isn't all that hard. The Brewers could replace Braun easier than Prince. The fans would revolt, but that's a risk when you think outside the box.

 

Here's an excerpt from McCalvy's piece. Doug makes some very good points. Of course the Monday morning QB's will disagree. :

But looking back, Melvin argues that the free-agent market didn't offer anything better.

 

"I go back and look at what we could have acquired," Melvin said. "John Smoltz wasn't the answer. Brad Penny wasn't the answer. Oliver Perez wasn't the answer. CC would have been the answer. A.J. Burnett has a four-and-a-half ERA. Derek Lowe has an ERA over 4.00, and Braden Looper's numbers are identical to Lowe's other than the home runs."

 

And the contract. Lowe signed with the Braves for four years and $60 million and is 12-8 with a 4.48 ERA and 82 strikeouts this season (Looper is 11-6 with a 4.88 ERA and 85 strikeouts). Smoltz and Penny were released by the Red Sox, though Smoltz has subsequently signed with the Cardinals. Burnett got five years and $82.5 million from the Yankees and is 10-8 with a 4.10 ERA. Perez signed a three-year, $36 contract but posted a 6.82 ERA before a season-ending injury.

 

For Milwaukee, it came down to Looper, Jon Garland or Randy Wolf. Melvin targeted Looper.

 

The Brewers might have had more luck via a trade for someone like Edwin Jackson, who went from Tampa Bay to Detroit and has had a breakthrough year. Or Javier Vazquez, acquired by the Braves in an offseason trade with the White Sox. Melvin said he had discussions about both players before they were dealt.

 

Milwaukee was also mentioned as a suitor for Giants starter Matt Cain, but those rumors were completely unfounded, Melvin said.

 

In the end, Brewers officials entered the year believing their starting rotation could compare favorably to the Rockies' staff. Gallardo, Bush and Parra matched with Colorado's Ubaldo Jiminez, Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa. Offseason pickups Looper and Marquis could be seen as comparable. And then Suppan would match with the Rockies' Jason Hammel.

 

"We had to have everybody stay healthy and pitch up to their capabilities, and that's what Colorado has had," Melvin said. "They only missed three starts until Cook went down [with a shoulder strain] and everybody pitched to their capability."

[Ennder]

The Rockies comparison is pretty much completely spot on. We put together a rag tag rotation and they underperformed/got hurt. I expect the same type of thing next year and then when Suppan/Hall are completely off teh books maybe we can work something out. If we are going to trade Hart/Hardy for pitching it is going to be AA/AAA pitching most likely, not major league quality.

[Invader3K]

My point wasn't even about this season. What is done is done...it's all water under the bridge at this point. But to go into next season with the same philosophy is unacceptable at this point. The fans have supported this team in droves and deserve better than that.

 

I'm at the point where I'd give serious thought to trading Prince at this point. I hate to think about it, but he's almost certainly gone in two years anyway. If we can get a couple good young pitchers for him, you almost have to do it. Or do they trade him next off season for less and still not have enough pitching?

[brewizard]

We put together a rag tag rotation and they underperformed/got hurt.

 

Nothing truer than that, except to say that it was Doug Melvin who put together the rag-tag rotation. WE, the fans, made our premonitions known that the rag-tag rotation wouldn't hold. Many on this board were right on to say that only signing Looper in the offseason was going to lead to disaster.

 

Rag-tag ain't going to cut it in the NL. It ain't going to cut it next season either.

 

Melvin can't admit his own culpability. He sounds like Ned Yost saying that he doesn't know what he would have done differently.

 

Rag-tag is what we're going to get next season too.

[Mr QL]

Yea, thanks for nothing Doug. Don't let this guy ruin the team any further for the next GM.

[dadofandrew]

First of all, there's some rewriting of history going on here, the 2008 staff was 2nd in the NL in ERA, so let's not pretend the pitching has always been poor.

 

The Brewers are not going to be able to bring in the top tier of FA every year, so that leaves them to develop it from the system. The next tier is Looper and Suppan, and that's what they've brought in, and exactly what they'll bring in next year and beyond.

 

Last I checked, the Crew is still on a 85-86 win pace if you remove Parra's and CV's starts. Yo's been exactly what we hoped, Bush, Suppan, and Looper have all been less effective than desired (though Dave and Jeff have both been at less than 100%), Burns and McClung split the games they started. Was there a lack of depth? Yes, as CV was forced to start. However, Parra simply has been off the charts bad, but will be back, as he has the 2nd most talent in the rotation, is LH, and throws 92-94...imagine how much it would cost to pry a talent like that away from a team.

 

Some of the improvements are going to have to come from the existing players returning to their career norms, or close to it. Is there any AAA guys ready to help? Maybe in some low importance spots, like middle relief. I personally hope JJ brings back some pitching, but realistically, after his off year, the Crew can't be choosy...if they are offered a near ready OF and a AA P, they'll probably have to take it.

[Ennder]

Rag-tag ain't going to cut it in the NL. It ain't going to cut it next season either.

 

It is cutting it for the rockies, it was cutting it for the Phillies(before the Lee trade). The most important thing to admit is his hands were pretty much tied. It is fun to be an arm chair GM and say that he should of would of could of but he knew the pitching was shaky and he knew there was absolutely nothing to do about it for last season. It isn't that I'm happy that we aren't likely to have a competitive rotation next year, I just think you are being an eternal optimist if you think it something we can fix.

 

The team has no young pitching outside of Parra/Gallardo and isn't a large market team that can overpay for established aces. This isn't something fixable for next season, we either trade for AA/AAA depth, we wait for our A/AA pitchers to come along or we do nothing. None of that is gonig to give us a good rotation for 2010. The best we can do is pick up a few really high risk/reward types and hope we get the reward(like say Pavano this year).

 

This is a systemic problem caused by our poor drafting/developing of young pitching over the past 10 years. I'm not sure I can just pin that on Melvin though I guess he is the top of the food chain and is ultimately responsible.

[brewizard]

This is a systemic problem caused by our poor drafting/developing of young pitching over the past 10 years. I'm not sure I can just pin that on Melvin though I guess he is the top of the food chain and is ultimately responsible.

 

Exactly my point.

 

Melvin IS ultimately responsible but seems unwilling to take the blame. He even got into a public spat with Braun to deflect criticism. Melvin is shuffling the blame for a 7-year-long failure onto others - or onto the offseason free-agent pitching market. I don't see it as anybody else's fault.

[PilprinBuddha]

The question I have is, will we be only able to keep one stud...Braun or Fielder? If so, that sucks beyond belief. If you look at The $ Cameron Kendell and hart are getting, tell me it helps us that much more than Catalanotto , Gerut (Yuck), and Rivera. My point is this...MN has decided to build on Morneau and Mauer and let everyone else be young or retreads. I would be happy to do the same with Braun and Fielder. Put the remainder of the $ into the Pitching and roll with that. Hart and Hall's contracts have hurt us financially. We need to stay away from tweeners and trade them for new prospects when they have value. I know hindsight is 20/20, but this team needs to be built on the two stallions in the barn...ala MN.

[Invader3K]

That would be nice, but we all know who Fielder's agent is. I would love to see the Brewers offer him a huge contract extension this off-season, and they very well might, but my gut tells me Fielder is going to turn it down. Then maybe it's time to seriously look at trading him. I would hate to see him go, but if trading him can help the team be competitive the next few seasons, even without him at 1B, then so be it.

[bklynbrewcrew]

This isnt about last offseason. This is about Melvins inability to find good pitching throughout his tenure as GM. He inherited Sheets and rented CC so last years success is mostly a result of those two studs. Other than drafting Gallardo what has Melvin done in regards to starting pitching? While young pitchers such as Jackson and Jurrjens have been traded Melvin has relied on stiffs like Suppan and Looper to help anchor the staff.

 

I also just dont get how Doug can use injuries as an excuse with regards to Suppan and Bush. He talks about their injuries killing us like we lost Lincecum and Cain. If Doug actually believes that a healthy Suppan and Bush would be enough to contend then he is seriously delusional.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, we lost an average pitcher and a guy who is a #5 pitcher at best. The injuries wouldn't have mattered if the talent depth on this team wasn't paper thin.

 

I just really fear if Melvin stays on as GM past this season, he'll take the exact same approach, basically putting band-aids over gaping wounds on this team. I hope Mr. Attanasio really weighs where he wants to see his franchise go in both the short and long term, and decide if he wants this same man guiding his ship.

[DougJones43]

I'm getting pretty tired of Melvin lately. It's pretty much become strictly whining and excuse-making from him lately. Add that to the spat with Braun (I would seriously hope that most GM's would be above publicly bickering with a frustrated 25-year-old kid), and it's been a pretty sad showing this past year. His complaints about the disparity are starting to remind me of the Selig era. The only problem is we're actually right in the middle of the MLB in terms of payroll so that crap doesn't really fly anymore. Whose fault is it that a majority of our resources have been tied up in the David Riskes, the Bill Halls, the Eric Gagnes, and the Jeff Suppans of the league rather than being used in a more effective manner?

 

We get it -- the Brewers couldn't compete for Sabathia. Neither could 29 other teams. However, a lot of them happened to have better Plan B's than signing Braden Looper (and praying every starter would stay healthy all year). The biggest problem is that Melvin's acting like the earth began to turn this past off-season. It didn't. He's been the GM for seven years, and he needs to assume responsibilty for that and the fact that Mike Burns was our top option in the case of an injury. I expect the palms-in-the-air "what could he have done THIS offseason??" comments on a message board. When that's all you hear from the GM though, it's downright pathetic.

 

I want Melvin gone.

[rluzinski]

All thirty teams can't have a winning record. All thirty teams can't make the playoffs. It's a zero sum game. You could have the 30 best GMs ever assembled in the history of baseball and about 15 of them won't even have a winning record. There's just so much that has to go into objective GM evaluation than win/loss record and playoff appearances.

 

Melvin assembled a team that projected to be about an 83 win team for 2009. It was never projected to be a playoff team and I don't see anything that Melvin obviously could have done in the off season to the add 7 wins to have made the Brewers into a legitimate playoff team going into 2009. That's a huge upgrade. Even if you cheat with 20/20 hinsite (which many fans are quiet fond of doing) it's very difficult to figure out where to get that 7 wins from.

 

Of course, the team that projected to have 83 wins is closer to finishing with 78-79 wins. Even though much of that was caused by injury, I think that's the one area Melvin deserves a significant amount of blame. #6, 7 and 8 options for the starting rotation has just been terrible.

 

I don't think Melvin is one of the best GMs ever but I'm not convinced that if replaced, the Brewers would have a great chance of finding an upgrade. Very similar to the whole Yost situation. Even if we think Melvin is just average, it's going to be very tough to pluck an above average GM out of thin air. It's very easy to envision Melvin being replaced by an inferior GM.

[Funketown]

I think Melvin has done a terrible job evaluating pitching talent in recent years (see: Suppan, Jeff; Weathers, David; Riske, David), but I can't disagree with him here. Sure, I'd love to see a John Lackey type in the rotation next year, but the market will price him very high given this weak free agent class. The problem is that there are undervalued pitchers in the trade market, but I'm not confident that Melvin will be able to find them. Getting a guy who put up a 3-4 ERA last year might not be possible, but I'm sure there are guys out there who should put up an ERA in that ballpark next year. Someone like a Ricky Nolasco would be a welcome addition, but I just don't see it happening. A rotation of Gallardo, Nolasco, Parra, Bush, and Suppan would probably be good enough to give this team a 15-20% shot at the playoffs next year, which I would be happy with. I just don't see Melvin finding a decent pitcher without overpaying.

[nate82]

This isnt about last offseason. This is about Melvins inability to find good pitching throughout his tenure as GM. He inherited Sheets and rented CC so last years success is mostly a result of those two studs. Other than drafting Gallardo what has Melvin done in regards to starting pitching? While young pitchers such as Jackson and Jurrjens have been traded Melvin has relied on stiffs like Suppan and Looper to help anchor the staff.

You act like the Brewers could have traded for either of those players. Who would be traded for those two players? For Jackson Hart does not even equal the value the Rays got for Jackson he is well below what they got for Jackson. So who other than Hart would you have traded for Jackson? Jurrjens again would have taken more than Hart to get him in the off season. Now who else would you add into that deal.

 

Now what if Jackson or Jurrjens had a year like Looper is having and Hart is having a year like he had in 2007? What would you have thought of that trade then? You can suggest all the trades you want until you are blue in the face it doesn't mean the other team is going to accept it. The Brewers do not have anyone in their system that were like the players the Rays got for Kazmir either. Only Taylor Green projects as well as Sweeney does other than that I don't see the Brewers being able to get Kazmir because of the lack of pitching prospects which can be blamed on Jack Z and Melvin.

 

There are free agents out there that the Brewers can get like Escobar, Pavano, and others. The Brewers either need to trade Braun, Fielder, Gamel, Escobar, or Lawrie in order to get some good pitching in return. You can't trade Gamel, Escobar, or Lawrie really unless you are getting a stud pitcher in return. With Braun and Fielder you would be expecting a Teixeira type of a haul and not that many teams will be willing to give up that kind of a haul in prospects.

 

So are Melvin's hands tied? Yes they are somewhat and the only way the Brewers will get the good pitching next year is through free agency I don't see many teams trading away pitching at least MLB level pitching away next year. The Brewers are either going to have to do a Gagne or a Suppan type of a deal for a player in free agency. Is Lackey, Escobar, or Harden really worth those kind of deals? I'm not sure they are especially with each of those players having injury concerns.

 

If the Brewers trade Hardy or Hart for pitching it will be of the AAA or AA variety I would rather take the AA pitcher over the AAA pitcher though. I just don't see who the Brewers could get in a trade for Hardy or Hart even last year. The Giants wanted both Hardy and Hart for Sanchez last off season. Everyone forgets that Melvin tried to trade one of Hardy or Hart to the Giants last year but the Giants were not interested in either Hart or Hardy for Cain. It probably would have taken Hardy and Fielder just to get Cain last year from the Giants and the Giants would probably have asked for Hart and another player in return.

[mothershipconnection]

The Brewers could replace Braun easier than Prince. The fans would revolt, but that's a risk when you think outside the box.

 

I would demand that the trade stipulate that the Brewers replace the two Braun jerseys I own.

Yes, Prince may be harder to replace, but the problem is that we soon HAVE to replace him, which we don't with Braun. I'd rather just roll the dice once instead of twice.