Sabathia FA Contract Revisited

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Looking at the way the season has gone, and the likely outlook going forward ( I fully expect Gamel, Escobar, and Lawrie to be our starting 2B-SS-3B by 2011), i think we've made a big mistake by not securing a #1 pitcher (either by matching NYY's offer for CC, or pushing harder to get Jake Peavy). I'm not entirely ready to concede 2010, but its doubtful that we will be able to do much next year without a serious upgrade in pitching. That said, i'm looking to 2011 (from a salary standpoint)

 

Looking at our roster for 2011

 

C- Salmone/Lucroy (unless either is traded, both should be pre-arby in 2011)

1B- Overbay Type FA ($5 million)

2B- Lawrie- (pre-arby)

SS- Escober (pre-arby)

3B- Gamel (pre-arby)

LF- Braun ($4 million)

CF- ?? (one of our OF prospects)- likely pre-arby

RF- ?? (maybe a FA- we seems to be ok at picking these up- Cat, Kapler, etc..) (5 mil)

Bench- McGehee (pre-arby), Salmone/Lucroy (pre-arby)/ Utility INF (2 mil), Utility OF (2 mil), current prospect (pre-arby)

 

Rotation-

Gallardo- $7 million (1st year arby)

Parra- $3 million (1st year arby)

Bush $5-6 mil (maybe if Melvin gave him a 2 year 2010 and 2011 deal

Pticher Acquired in Fielder/Hardy deals ($5M)

Sabathia/Peavy $25 million

 

Bullpen- $15 million

 

We're at $79 million + pre-arby ($5 million) = $84 million. We really have another solid/cheap wave of offensive prospects coming through, but unless we hurry, we're going to have 1 elite pitcher (Yo), and 4 duds while the young prospects are cheap. Since pitching is harder to predict, and often more expensive, one would think our window would almost need to be when the BATS are young, and the pitching is experienced.

 

I firmly believe that a Peavy/Sabathia + Overbay type FA is worth more to this team than a Fielder/Braden Looper combo, but given how rarely #1 ace pitchers (CC/Peavy etc) are on the market, i think we blew a solid chance to lock in another 1/2 pitcher for the next 3-4 seasons

[bigredrobbo]

I'm sorry, but if you believe that the Brewers could have matched the Yankees offer, then you're in a fantasy world. Never mind the SHOULD we try to match their offer question. As for Peavy, his no-trade clause was never likely to have been revoked to come to the Crew. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd have loved to have either. Heck, since we are dreaming of could-have-beens, let's pretend we got BOTH of them and throw that idyllic scenario around our noggins for a while!

[RightFieldCoder]

The only problem is that a Peavy/Halliday trade would cost Escobar and Gamel, losing your young infield. Also, what about Weeks? Are we trading him also?

[LennyBrisco]

I'd hope the brewers get more then a #4 starting pitcher for Fielder

[jeffy]

The Brewers were not that far off on the annual amount, $20 million vs. the Yankees $24 million. But no way could they match the years. Maybe they'd even have been willing to give him the $100 million over 4 years, but I doubt he'd have wanted to sign for 3 fewer guaranteed years, despite Braun's comments.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Manny Parra looks like a disaster to me. I mean, he's a 26th round pick, but I don't think he's anything remotely close to what the Brewers hoped.

 

If Bush can come back healthy, I'd take him and Gallardo in our rotation ... if you can sign Looper for the back end, fine, but we need two pitchers to be our #2 and #3 and they need to be a lot better than anything we got right now.

 

I'd have loved to keep Sabathia but the Brewers had no chance.

[mothershipconnection]

Manny Parra looks like a disaster to me. I mean, he's a 26th round pick, but I don't think he's anything remotely close to what the Brewers hoped.

 

They definitely had high hopes at the time he signed, as they gave him a $1.55MM bonus as a big-time dfe prospect.

[edod]

Parra, if my memory serves, was from the last year of draft-and-follow signings. He was drafted the year before in the 26th round, did not sign but went on to put up very good numbers the following season and decided to sign with the Brewers instead of re-enter the draft where he would have gone in the first round. I remember them playing it off as if they got two first rounders that year.

 

They say lefties take longer to develop, so don't be surprised if he continues to get chances to develop in the Crew's rotation for a few more years. I've thought he looked rough from the beginning and won't be surprised when he pitches his way off the team and ends up a solid contributor elsewhere. Tis the Brewers fate.

[jeffy]

They say lefties take longer to develop...

Probably the truth is simply that lefties get more time and opportunities to develop.

[davego]

Good point. The Rockies have one in their rotation, as an example.

[djoctagone]

interesting to note that cc could opt out of his contract after this year.

[dlk9s]

Sick bump

[PrinceFielderx1]

according to the NY Daily news Sabathia is expected to exercise his opt out clause after 2011.

 

link

[GAME05]

MLB TradeRumors gives a lot of Sabathia quotes saying he doesn't intend to exercise his option at the end of the year. i think it's mostly posturing and that assuming he has another great year that he'll opt out. it's a thin starter's market after 2011 and maybe he'll want off the team if they don't finish well this season. but even in a thin pitching market, i can't figure who else would pay him more than his current salary.

[Flood Pants]

If he did opt out, I'd imagine it would be for the same reason that A-Rod did... no intention of leaving the Yankees, but playing hardball with them for more money.

[Invader3K]

I don't think he'll actually opt out, but probably leverage the option into an extension for more money.

[sveumrules]

If he has a typical CC year I'm sure some team will be more than happy to give him 5/125 if he opts out.

[davemakovec]

I wouldn't put it past Theo Epstein to go after Sabathia if he opts out just to stick it in Brian Cashman's craw. If the Yankees in successive years lose out on Santana, Halladay, Lee, and Sabathia, there will be blood in the streets of the Bronx.

[Invader3K]

If he has a typical CC year I'm sure some team will be more than happy to give him 5/125 if he opts out.

I wonder if the Brewers wouldn't consider it, if neither Marcum nor Greinke are amenable to signing extensions.

[DHonks]

Invader, I thought that as well. We know he liked his time in Milwaukee. We also know that if Prince leaves, we could have a chunk of money to spend. Of course, Prince's salary is probably offset by raises to others next year (Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, etc). Still, to get a Sabathia would be unbelievable and almost deserves a budget outside of the usual $80-95 million. Could you imagine several years of Sabathia, Greinke, and Gallardo atop the rotation!!??!!

[NYChez]

What if CC wins 20 games and the Yankees go 85-77 and finish in 4th place in the AL East with and old team? Is it possible a player would seek to get out of New York solely for improving his chances of winning (not to mention leave what would likely be a relatively depressing situation)?

[GAME05]

it makes sense to me that the Yankees will trade Joba mid-season to add a piece for a playoff push, so they're going to be hurting to sign a whole bunch of good SPs next offseason. CC is really going to have them over a barrel and should be able to demand the moon. i'm guessing the only lesson the Yankees learned in missing out on Lee was that they can't offer just a bit more than other teams, but have to offer a whole lot more than other teams. maybe the same will happen with CC and that will be hilarious.

 

i hope CC opts out and signs with the Phillies because that would be sick.

[jjkoestler]

it makes sense to me that the Yankees will trade Joba mid-season to add a piece for a playoff push, so they're going to be hurting to sign a whole bunch of good SPs next offseason. CC is really going to have them over a barrel and should be able to demand the moon. i'm guessing the only lesson the Yankees learned in missing out on Lee was that they can't offer just a bit more than other teams, but have to offer a whole lot more than other teams. maybe the same will happen with CC and that will be hilarious.

 

i hope CC opts out and signs with the Phillies Brewers because that would be sick.

Fixed