Looper contract incentives

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Per Cot's:

 

1 year/$4.75M (2009), plus 2010 option

• signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 2/13/09
• 09:$4.75M, 10:$6M
• 2010 option increases to $6.5M with 30 starts in 2009
  
• $0.75M in performance bonuses (starts 19-30)
  
• if club exercises 2010 option, Looper may decline (no buyout)
• if club declines 2010 option, Looper receives a $0.75M buyout ($1M with 30 starts or 180 IP in 2009)

Looper has thrown 149 innings in 26 starts so far. If he continues to start, he should easily surpass 180IP/30Gs which will cost them $250K to $500K.

 

Any chance the Brewers put him in the bullpen and instead start Dillard, Narveson, Wright, or Cody? Looper has not performed and the Brewers may want to "see what they have" in some of these other marginal prospects.

 

 

(edit: bumped up font size in quoted material --1992)

[BrewersSuperCollector]

No way will the Brewers put him in the bullpen. I think the Brewers are hoping he will be back next year.

[jwill535]

If they did that for the sole reason to keep him from achieving the incentives, they would have the union all over them and probably would make an all ready difficult task of signing free agents even more difficult.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers pulled shenanigans like this a few times in the Selig era. One of which I believe is noted in the great Rollie Fingers interview on this site.

[DHonks]

Looper has generally done alright. The bad outings were the two or three when he was staked to big leads and gave them back. Still, with a good last 6 weeks he could finish with an ERA in the 4.2-4.5 range. I see the Brewers excercising the option, but if the market is weak for pitching, Looper might decline his

[derflotr]

Even Mat Gamel isn't on the big league team. I really don't think the Brewers are in "see what we have" mode. Like jwill said, the union would go to town on this one anyway.

[dadofandrew]

Looper for $6M is not a bad deal at all. With a team which has had pitching trouble, they will all but certainly exercise the option.

[owbc]

We got what we paid for with Looper. He's a solid #5 starter. Unfortunately, we have 3 or 4 #5 starters in our rotation right now.

[endaround]

Looper for $6M is not a bad deal at all. With a team which has had pitching trouble, they will all but certainly exercise the option.

 

Looper is one of the most overpaid players on the team. There is no way they should pick up that option. Looper has pitched at half a win below replacement level. You can say his home run rate is all random but he's lost velocity. A RHP with a sub 90s fastball with a mediocre GB/FB ratio isn't worth keeping around.

[brewmann04]

we got what we paid for Looper leading the league in Home runs given up.i am not sure he should be brought back.

Looper is not a guy you can count on to be any more than a #5 guy,Looper will be back only because the Brewers will not be able to find any Quality Pitching in the offseason

[kramnoj]

Looper has pitched at half a win below replacement level.

 

The problem with isolated thinking like this is that the idea of freely available replacement level talent is a myth. Looper is below what is calculated as replacement level, but is better than what the Brewers have been able to bring up this season. It may certainly be the case that the Brewers will be able to get better talent this offseason, but a serious look at the FA pitching and a calculated guess at which teams will be pursuing that talent should be done first. The Brewers best option may be to bring back Looper.

[Funketown]

Looper has pitched at half a win below replacement level.

 

The problem with isolated thinking like this is that the idea of freely available replacement level talent is a myth. Looper is below what is calculated as replacement level, but is better than what the Brewers have been able to bring up this season.

Don't guys like Mike Burns, Chase Wright, and Nick Green basically fit the definition for replacement level?

[endaround]

No it isn't a myth. Vargas cost all of Rotino. Odalis Perez is still out there. In addition to that, the Brewers need to improve their rotation. Gallardo and Parra are set. Bush is likely set. Suppan's contract makes him almost a certainty. That's 4 spots.

[kramnoj]

Burns is below replacement level, Wright doesn't look impressive in AAA. Burns looks better in WAR, but he has pitched 1/3 the innings that Looper has. If he pitched as many innings as Looper, he would be worse.

[Funketown]

Burns is below replacement level, Wright doesn't look impressive in AAA. Burns looks better in WAR, but he has pitched 1/3 the innings that Looper has. If he pitched as many innings as Looper, he would be worse.

How so? All of his minor league and major league numbers suggest that he is a replacement level pitcher.

[kramnoj]

How is Burns below replacement? That's how he's performed so far this year. Sure, it's a small sample. But I would rather bet on Looper's 2010 than Burns, even with the salary difference.

[jackalope02ca]

Really what makes anyone think Parra is set? He's been hyped on this site a lot but has yet to deliver any type of consistency. On quite a few teams he wouldn't even be in the majors right now. If he is set I hate to think of the type of year we are going to have next year.

[Funketown]

How is Burns below replacement? That's how he's performed so far this year. Sure, it's a small sample. But I would rather bet on Looper's 2010 than Burns, even with the salary difference.

Yea, by 1.4 runs. Career, in 98.2 innings, he's 1.9 runs below replacement. That's about as close to replacement level as you can get over that sample.

[dadofandrew]

The thing that makes guys like Looper and Suppan valuable is they put up 5ish ERA's, while AAA vets do not...what was that Sackmann piece he did a couple years ago, the bottom 32 starts by a team each year is over a 6 ERA, or thereabouts? A 5ish ERA will add about 3 wins if you can avoid having to run that terrible SP out there.

 

It's no coincidence the Crew's slide began with the injuries to Bush and Suppan, the replacements fared poorly, despite doing fine in AAA, which eventually wore down the bullpen as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

Really what makes anyone think Parra is set? He's been hyped on this site a lot but has yet to deliver any type of consistency. On quite a few teams he wouldn't even be in the majors right now. If he is set I hate to think of the type of year we are going to have next year.

Exactly. If Burns and his 6.17 ERA are below replacement value, what is Parra and his 6.54 over a larger sample?

 

I wouldn't guarantee anyone a rotation spot other than Gallardo for 2010 at this point. Bush could still secure one over these final few weeks. With Looper it's just a matter if they think they can get an upgrade for the same or lesser money in the FA market. Suppan in his final contract year will likely get 10-12 starts but then all bets are off (see Bill Hall). Parra might get one by default or he could go in a deal along with a position player.

 

They could also keep Vargas and turn him back into a starter, and I wouldn't completely rule out Narveson either.

 

Any way you look at it, it's pretty bleak. They are going to have to consider fast tracking some guys now in the lower levels.

[logan82]

Parra delivered a 4.39 ERA in 2008. I personally consider that pretty good. I think this year is an aberration on his stat line. Even in this year his FIP is only 4.66.

[dadofandrew]

Yo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan would seem to be all but guaranteed roster spots, and are the heavy favorites for the rotation as well. There's little doubt to me Looper is a solid MLB SP, so letting him go for nothing seems strange to me, when he would at least have trade value (if he accepts the option).

 

Parra is a LH SP who has had past success and throws in the 90's...he's better than any young SP the Crew has a chance to acquire. Add that to the fact he'll be cheap, he'll be back. Barring trades, the above 4 almost certainly will make up 80% of the staff.

 

I would ask what Hardy/Looper package would bring...if Braden accepts the option, of course.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, Looper has not been "alright" in any way, shape or form. He's the worst qualified starting pitcher in the NL by a wide margin if you use FIP. There's no way he should be brought back. If nothing else, take that 6 mil available for him and give it to some other free agent starter that's bound to be better.

[Invader3K]

I agree with Stevo. I'm surprised so many are so tolerant of Looper, especially given how much Suppan is vilified on this same site.

 

I'd rather try someone else next season...if they do bring Looper back at all, it should be for a very cheap amount, not $6 million or something. $1 or 2 million at most would be much more in line with his performance.

[Fatter than Joey]

I agree with Stevo. I'm surprised so many are so tolerant of Looper, especially given how much Suppan is vilified on this same site.

 

They both pretty much suck -- and I don't expect either to be much better next year.

 

I wouldn't exercise Looper's option -- unless you knew that Bush/Suppan were going to be out next year for some time.