When should we sign Fielder long term?

[JJHardy7]

Like CC, Carlos Lee, and CoCo, Melvin has to make a serious reasonable offer to Prince either this winter or next, or both. When he turns it down, Doug will have all the reason he needs for the fans to understand Prince must be traded.

At the same time, you don't want it all that public though. Granted most teams probably think the Brewers have no shot, but I don't want to hurt Prince's value in the slightest by publicly declaring we're not signing him long-term and we're going to trade him.

[Invader3K]

They can always go public with their offer after doing the trade.

[TooLiveBrew]

Somewhere like Boston or New York, he'd just be another very good player on a team full of All-Stars.

 

I get the general point here, but it's a complete disservice to Prince's talent & production to say he wouldn't stand out on any team. This guy has been in the top 5 best hitters in MLB basically all season long, and would instantly be the best bat for either NYY or BOS.

[brewmann04]

i would think they would have to do whatever is needed to keep Prince.

[jeffy]

Yes he did. Braun signed before arby was even close to be seen. Unless Fielder had a career ending injury, something he's likely insured for, he was going to get that amount of money. He was a 24 year old coming off a 50 home run season.

I'm not sure what you mean here. Fielder had not earned or signed contracts for $20 million plus until January 2009. Up until then he had no guarantee for himself or his family of getting this quantity of money, no matter what unexpected things might happen. Career ending injuries and even deaths do happen on occasion.

 

Fielder himself indicated that having this contract alleviated his worries: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/01/23/Fielder.contract.ap/index.html

 

So your speculation that he somehow had insurance that would provide anywhere near the amount he gets even from this short term contract would appear to be mistaken.

[fleehaw]

IMO, the best time to sign Fielder 'long term' is this offseason. And when I say 'long term', I really mean buying out 1 year, possibly 2 years of FA. I can't see Fielder signing a 5 or 6 year deal with the Brewers. What I can see him doing is signing a deal that buys out one year of FA and makes him a FA at age 28 or 29 when he's still pretty much assured of getting a Tex-like deal.

 

Rip up '10 salary of $10.5M. 3 yrs/$45M-$50M. Equivalent of him getting $34.5-39.5M in '11 & '12, that's pretty much market value.

 

Could also try 4yrs/$64M-$70M.

[FVBrewerFan]

Why would he delay his long term mega- contract by one year? There is no good reason for him to add a year to his current deal. Like it or not, this ends only one way. An 8 year /$200MM contract after the 2011 season. And it won't be with the Brewers.

[TheCrew07]

He'll get big money, but I'm not sure the money will be 200 million big. He's a premium hitter there's no doubt, but he also carries significant risk given his weight and family history. I'm not so sure you can separate Prince from Cecil's rapid decline and is a DH worth that much money regarless how well he hits? I don't see him getting Ramirez money though I most definitely could be wrong, especially if a bidding war started.

 

It's probably just because I wouldn't invest that much in a player like Fielder if I was a GM that I don't see him getting that money. I won't be surprised if he does, but that's quite a bit of coin for someone that might not stick in the field.

[NYChez]

The Yankees can't sign Fielder. They have Teixeira at 1B and A-Rod could very well be at DH by the time his days making $25 Mil + in NY wrap up. Having the Yankees out of the bidding will help the Brewers' chances immensely.

[Funketown]

The Yankees can't sign Fielder. They have Teixeira at 1B and A-Rod could very well be at DH by the time his days making $25 Mil + in NY wrap up. Having the Yankees out of the bidding will help the Brewers' chances immensely.

Wow, didn't realize he was signed through 2017. The only way I can see Fielder fitting in is if he would sign a 4 year deal from 2012-2015, 80 mil. The Yankees certainly haven't had a problem with fielding horrendous fielders in the past, though that might be changing. A-rod would have to be pretty brutal by age 40 though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

and is a DH worth that much money regarless how well he hits?

 

Absolutely. The difference between a good fielding and mediocre fielding 1st baseman is only about 1 win per season. You have to be either very good or poor or worse at 1st base to have much of an impact on wins and losses with the glove.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Yankees may not be willing to sign Fielder, but the Red Sox sure as heck will be...along with the Angels, Cubs (D Lee's deal will be up close to when Fielder's a FA), White Sox, Orioles, and any other large market team that doesn't have an offensive stud at 1B/DH in the AL a few years from now.

 

Fielder's worth a LOT more than what the Brewers can afford in free agency - Boras will never let Fielder have any of his free agent years bought out, because he knows the long-term risks a player with Fielder's body type carries. Boras is going to have Fielder cash in as much as possible when he's a free agent the first time, because the odds are that he won't get a big second payday once he's on the wrong side of 30.

 

The Brewers gave Fielder this two year deal to get some cost certainty leading up to his last arby year, and I think he either gets dealt during next offseason for a boatload of prospects/pitching, or they keep him through 2011 and pick up the type A draft picks for letting him walk. For as good as he is, there's no way a team with the Brewers' payroll can afford to pay Fielder what he's worth to a large market team in need of a lefthanded thumper in the middle of a lineup.

[FVBrewerFan]

ASSUMING 2010, 2011 are similar to his stats this year, I may have been light when I mentioned $200MM. You have one of the very best power hitters in the game, who also hits for average. I can't think of many teams who wouldn't be interested in that. And it's even beyond the big market teams. Just look at the money Toronto threw at Vernon Wells as a quick (not perfect) example.

 

Nobody cares about defense anymore. If you can put a guy in the 4 hole that will hit 40+ HR, drive in over 120, and hit .300 there is a place for him. Even the Yankees would find a way.

 

Prince (and Boris) are taking a risk that he won't be injured, or have less than a spectacular 2011. But I would bet it's a risk they're willing to take.

[owbc]

I don't see how people are suggesting he will sign for anything less than 100M--or even 125 M, so I will try to rationalize this more...

 

The Yankees have gotten used to signing 30-something free agents to huge contracts. Fielder offers an opportunity to sign a 26 year old to a big contract where they can take advantage of his prime years. I know Prince has weight issues, but he's only missed 12 games in the last 4 seasons and never had a major injury. He will likely decline at some point, which should be a concern. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder lasted until age 32, David Ortiz declined this year (he's 33). Therefore, a 7 year contract is likely the ideal number, but if there is competition from other clubs I could see 8 or 9.

 

The Brewers could be helped by Prince's defense, as it will likely be only AL teams looking to sign him. We may be the only NL club willing to take a risk, especially if there is some unforeseen future injury that allows him to hit but limits his mobility. With the economic recovery likely well underway in a year and a half, many of these teams will have additional money to spend. The Yankees will likely not be seriously interested, so the Red Sox will be the #1 bidder. The Angels will almost certainly try to match the offer. I could also see some teams with recent success get involved, so throw in the Texas Rangers (especially if they make the playoffs this year). How about Detroit--can you imagine Prince and Cabrera as the corner infielders? In the NL, I could see the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs all being initially interested.

 

So basically, there will end up being about 10 teams willing to spend 100M on him and about 5 that will go over 130M. Like I said before, he's very similar to Mark Teixeira, as they both hit 100+ home runs before turning 26. Fielder has the advantage of being even younger than Teixeria with better numbers. Boston offered $21 million per season and was turned down to the Yankees offer of $22.5 million/season (in a down economy!!!). Fielder will likely see a similar contract, I suspect 7 years for around $150-160 million.

 

I think our best bet is to offer a 6 year extension this offseason with around $120 million in guaranteed money. Put the money on the table and see if he can avoid the temptation of signing now. We will have ZERO chance next year, it doesn't matter how well the team does, season ticket renewals are going to drop attendance to about 2.5 million next year. It has to be done in the offseason. Remember, any extension worth less than $100 million is going to be laughed at. It has to be a serious offer.

[fleehaw]

Why would he delay his long term mega- contract by one year? There is no good reason for him to add a year to his current deal. Like it or not, this ends only one way. An 8 year /$200MM contract after the 2011 season. And it won't be with the Brewers.

I'm not saying he'll be with the Brewers past his arbitration. I am saying I think the Brewers best shot at buying out a year of his FA is this offseason. A 3 year deal at market value may be attractive to Fielder, Boras, and the Brewers. His future mega deal (undoubtedly with another team) will then run later into his career where he's very likely to make a lot more money than if he's signing a FA deal in his mid-30's. I doubt he'll make $15-20M per year when he's 34-36 years old when he'd be a FA again.

[jeffy]

Therefore, a 7 year contract is likely the ideal number, but if there is competition from other clubs I could see 8 or 9.

How about 10 and $250 million?

(or maybe $253 million, to break the record)

[owbc]

A 3 year deal at market value may be attractive to Fielder, Boras, and the Brewers. His future mega deal (undoubtedly with another team) will then run later into his career where he's very likely to make a lot more money than if he's signing a FA deal in his mid-30's. I doubt he'll make $15-20M per year when he's 34-36 years old when he'd be a FA again.

Why sign one mega-deal when he could have 2 mega-deals? If he signs a 6 year contract in 2010 for $20-25 million per season, he gets out of it at age 32. At that point, he will likely not have seen significant decline yet and should be able to get someone to sign him to another 5+ year contract. He will likely have around 400 home runs at that point, at least one MVP award, and numerous all-star appearances to bolster his value.

 

The other problem with signing a 3-year deal is that the CBA expires in 2011. Any sort of work stoppage could have catastrophic effects on the free agent market. It would be better for him to get the guaranteed money now instead of risking a few very bad FA years after 2011.

[fleehaw]

Why sign one mega-deal when he could have 2 mega-deals? If he signs a 6 year contract in 2010 for $20-25 million per season, he gets out of it at age 32. At that point, he will likely not have seen significant decline yet and should be able to get someone to sign him to another 5+ year contract. He will likely have around 400 home runs at that point, at least one MVP award, and numerous all-star appearances to bolster his value.

Fielder may very well be worth $20-25M per year over 6 seasons, but it may not be in the Brewer's best interest to sign him to such a deal (if he'd sign it). There's a good deal of risk tying up that much salary in one player for a small market team. I'm not saying I'm for or against such a deal, just that it's would represent a very big risk for the Brewers.

[edod]

I think the money perspective has been examined very well in the above posts. I had not thought about all such angles and enjoyed reading them. I thought I would add that there is also the small-market conundrum. Prince probably wants to be on a competitive team. He also wants a big payday as shown by his choice of agent. These two things cannot really go together in Milwaukee or any other small market/payroll city. This is primarily why I think the Brewers never had a real chance to sign CC. The player knows that if they sign a special deal with a team like the Brewers they will effectively be 20-25% of the payroll and will almost certainly prevent that team from going out and making other acquisitions to stay competitive. It can't be just a desire to win, think of the stress involved in being that kind of presence on a losing ball club. The down years would be hellish if the player has any sort of pathos. Look at the treatment Suppan gets on this site and his deal is petty compared to what the real big boys make. In a large market, you also get a small piece of mind that it ALL can't be blamed on you. If Prince is looking to take care of himself and his family, I have to believe this will also play a role.

 

I am kind of ignoring the big market media pressure, but I think that is a slightly different thing.

[owbc]

I'm not saying I'm for or against such a deal, just that it's would represent a very big risk for the Brewers.

I have the same feeling. I know what it will cost and I'm not sure if it is worth the risk. The problem is that we are staring at the next Yount/Molitor combination and we already have one of them locked up for the next 7 years. It has discussed on this site that Braun/Fielder and a bunch of mediocre players might be enough for an above-average offense. We also still have a decent offensive core to support them, and it looks like Hardy/Hart will not be offered large extensions like was originally planned. We would lose leverage in the free agent market, but our recent FA acquisitions suggest that we would be better off staying away from expensive free agents.

 

What it comes down to is that the Brewers can not win a bidding war if a large market team is seriously interested. The only way I can see it happening is if the Brewers are aggressive this offseasion in offering an extension--and like I said earlier, the initial offer should be for over $100 million. They need to offer him the security of an extension now at a price below market FA value but still worthy of being called a mega-deal. If that works, then you should absolutely spend the money.

[Fear The Chorizo]

when was the last time Boras represented one of the top potential free agents to be and let him sign an extension prior to him reaching free agency? He had Arod opt out of the largest deal in history just to get him extended, and that was done while he was already playing for the Yankees!

 

Fielder will not be a Brewer beyond the 2011 season, and I think Melvin's most important decision has to be whether it's better for the franchise to keep him for two more seasons and get his production during both of them, or determine the best time to trade him in order to maximize the return of talent to improve the team beyond 2011.

 

while Fielder's among the best offensive corner infielders in the game, 1B is a relatively easy position to get offensive production from. I think the Brewers may be best served to see what kind of return they could get for Fielder this offseason - his trade value will never be higher, as the team getting him would get two years of control (with one of his arby years being a certain cost). If trading Fielder can net the Brewers a frontline starting pitcher plus additional talent, I think they have to consider making the move before 2010, or possibly at next year's deadline if the right situation exists. I don't see how this team can radically improve its pitching staff without such a trade.

[FVBrewerFan]

I hate it when you're right Chorizo! Man, I would love this to have a happy ending where Fielder gives Mark A the home team discount and stays- even for another 3 or 4 years. But that's my heart talking, not my head. It's hard to imagine the Brewers resigning him. And as others have said, you really have to wonder if they SHOULD resign him to a mega-deal.

 

Instead, maybe you move Gamel to 1st, Weeks can become the huge weapon we think he can be, and in the end the offense still flourishes. I would listen to offers starting now, and who knows what's out there? You can't lose. Either you keep him for another year or two, or you get a great package in return. When you think about it, it's really the most logical way we ever get an ace on the mound in the near future.

[MNBrew]

I hate the prospect of giving up such amazing talent and production like Fielder. However, there's fantasy & reality. With Boras as his agent, Fielder staying in Milwaukee long-term is more the former than the latter.

 

This is a good thread, and it really got me thinking about a prominent thread from last winter, the point of which was to really maximize value & opportunity in the return. To that end, I wonder just how much of a haul Melvin could get from Boston for Fielder AND Hardy.

 

Boston can afford what Fielder will cost -- and you'd figure they'd pay it so the Yankees don't land him away from them. Boston has a stable of talent to draw from. If you could get Ellsbury, Papelbon (to start or close), Lester, & Bard, I'd think DM would have to seriously consider that package. 3 good pitchers and a speedy, good-hitting, young CF for an All-Star SS (one blah year removed from 2 very solid years) and an elite, 25-year-old, stud power hitter extraordinaire seems the sort of package worth demanding. Boston could just pick up Wagner's option if he proves solid (I read the keep Wagner-trade JP notion somewhere.) How would this affect the Crew?

 

- CF becomes Ellsbury instead of Cameron (OR, at the craziest, Hart can be moved an Cameron or Ellsbury can play RF).

- 3B and 1B can be covered between the Gamel-McGehee-Lopez-Heether-Counsell collection.

- By moving JP back to the rotation, you can still easily justify keeping Hoffman, thus keeping the back of the bullpen extremely strong.

- Talent infusion into the rotation is considerable. No more Mike Burns.

 

Just having fun with the idea. But to trade Fielder, DM would have to aim extremely high -- and he'd have absolutely every right to do so.

[SZBrewerFan]

There is absolutely no way we would be able to pull Lester, Papelbon, Bard and Ellsbury for Fielder. Look I love Prince as much as the next guy but if we could make that trade Prince would be on the next flight to Boston. Jon Lester is one of the best (if not the best) left handed pitchers in baseball when considering age, cost, etc. Papelbon is an All-Star closer. Ellsbury is a protypical leadoff guy and a good CF to boot along with being very young and Bard is arguably their top prospect. If we could get that kind of package I would do back flips and I have a feeling Mr. Melvin would as well!

[giffted1]

Boston can afford what Fielder will cost -- and you'd figure they'd pay it so the Yankees don't land him away from them. Boston has a stable of talent to draw from. If you could get Ellsbury, Papelbon (to start or close), Lester, & Bard, I'd think DM would have to seriously consider that package. 3 good pitchers and a speedy, good-hitting, young CF for an All-Star SS (one blah year removed from 2 very solid years) and an elite, 25-year-old, stud power hitter extraordinaire seems the sort of package worth demanding. Boston could just pick up Wagner's option if he proves solid (I read the keep Wagner-trade JP notion somewhere.) How would this affect the Crew?

I can't see Boston giving up that much for Fielder and Hardy. I don't think they'd part with Lester alone for Fielder. There are definitely are good match for us, though. Fielder taking over for a quickly declining Ortiz makes too much sense. If we don't bring Cameron back, Fielder for Ellsbury and Bucholz would be a realistic starting point, IMO.