wOBA and other stats compared to runs scored

[logan82]

LouisEly

A very relevant stat that SBs could factor in, a stat that rarely if ever gets mentioned that I think has some merit, is total bases. Granted that the true definition of total bases includes only hits, but an adjusted total bases statistic (aTB? Apologies to Andre Tanneberger) could take the total bases from hits, add in one base for walks and HBP, and then add in stolen bases while subtracting caught stealing (give double weight to caught stealing if you will). This stat, with apologies to Meredith Brooks, could be a little bit of everything all rolled into one. It factors in the key elements of OBP not included in BA (walks and HBP) while adding in the importance of SLG (additional bases from doubles/triples/HRs), and combines that with the value of net stolen bases plus one additional factor - durability. OBP is great, but a .400 OBP doesn't do any good when it is sitting on the bench because a guy has a bad hammie or can't go more than 5 games a week, resulting in a lesser player (replacement or below replacement level) having to play; how does that relate to a player's value over an entire season? All stats have flaws, but I would be interested in seeing what a stat like that would show for players over an entire season and how that would correlate to runs produced (scored and driven in) and adjusted total bases per dollar of salary.

This is a discussion for another thread though. I do side with the camp that SBs and speed in general has value; one of the shortcomings of OBP is that a walk or HBP with 1B open doesn't advance any runners, and runners can only advance one base on a walk or HB, whereas runners score from 2B routinely on base hits and sometimes from 1B when there are two outs. Don't get me wrong, OBP is important, but games are won based on who scores the most runs not who has the highest OBP, and speed and SBs often factor into runs scored.

The whole quote wasn't necessary, but instead of continuing off topic I will post a response here.

 

Use wOBA. It takes SB and SC into account. Graphing SC compared to runs scored shows up pretty much like strikeouts vs runs scored on a team level. It looks like a shotgun. Of course SB baserunning is very important, but nowhere near as important as OBP. Not making outs is the single most important thing when trying to score runs. After that is getting as many bases as possible when getting a hit. Very very distant after that is stealing bases.

 

Yes one short coming of OBP is it doesn't differentiate between a HBP or a HR that's why people use things like OPS.

 

If you use wOBA it can easily be converted to runs by taking a player's wOBA and subtracting the league average wOBA(usually around .335) then dividing by 1.15 and then multiplying it by a player's PA.

 

For example

Corporan .892 wOBA in 1 PA (.892-.335)/1.15 * 1 = 0.48 runs

Fielder .421 wOBA in 529 PA (.421-.335)/1.15 * 529 = 39.56 runs

 

McGehee .365 wOBA in 242 PA (.365-.335)/1.15 * 242 = 6.31 runs

Cameron .352 wOBA in 476 PA (.352-.335)/1.15 * 476 = 7.04 runs

 

Nobody has ever said speed doesn't have value. Only that speed has very limited value.

 

one of the shortcomings of OBP is that a walk or HBP with 1B open doesn't advance any runners, and runners can only advance one base on a walk or HB,

 

and with nobody on base a BB or HBP are exactly the same as a single. The bases have been empty 54% of the time when a Brewer came to bat. An infield hit doesn't advance runners either.

[endaround]

There was a study done either at fangraphs or hardballtimes (I think) to see what effect a "base stealer" on 1B does for a team. Now having a player on 1B is always helpful for the batter because it open up a huge hole on the right side so on average all betters perform batter with men on 1B. The question that they tried to answer was does having aa speedy guy on 1B cause distraction to the defense/pitcher giving an even larger advantage to the hitter. What tehy found was that having a base stealer on 1B actually caused the batters to perform worse, Whether this was due to constant throw overs screwing up a hitters concentration or because mangers stupidly called for hit and runs forcing swings at bad pitches can't really be known. But there isn't any reason to believe there is any huge positive effect for speed at 1B.

[rluzinski]

wOBA doesn't take into account SB or CS (unless I'm misunderstanding you):

 

wOBA = (0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

 

I don't know why people think there are some hidden value of a certain batting event that no one has ever thought about. The weights above are the average value of every batting event. sometimes walks advance a runner and sometimes it doesn't. I know, preaching to the choir.

[logan82]

wOBA on Fangraphs includes SB and CS.

[Baldkin]

wOBA = (0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

Serious question... why are BB weighted differently than HBP?

[1992casey]

I'm wondering why wOBA includes RBOE when it doesn't have much to do with the batter's ability. I'm also wondering why IBBs aren't included.

[igor67]

There is a speed element to reaching on errors, and it does reflect making contact. Given that defense has improved quite a bit overtime and scoring has seemingly become very subjective reaching on an error isn't that different from a single (ball in play get to first safely other runners advance). I'm even guessing that the increased value for the error is due to a higher likelihood of other runners advancing an extra base on the error than a normal single.

[rluzinski]

wOBA on Fangraphs includes SB and CS.

 

I hate that there is multiple versions of the same stat and they have the same name. Tango is the inventor of wOBA, so I feel compelled to defer to his version. I'm not a big fan of using an average value of a SB and CS anyway. The only reason we can use the context neutral run values of the batting events is because there is little correlation between game situation and batting event (players don't really show a skill to hit a single when they want, vs. a HR. Maybe SF but it's pretty weak I think.). A SB attempt is completely up to the hitter, though. And depending on the attempt, it can either be a no brainer to try and steal or completely stupid. For instance, here are the run values of a SB and CS with a runner at 2B and 2 out:

 

SB: .05 runs

CS: -.34 runs

 

The break even point for justifying an attempt is about 88%. And if you have a power hitter up, the breakeven point is even higher. Now, should Braun really get credit for a half a run for stealing 3B with 2 outs and Fielder up? And for the later half of the game, we are more concerned about WP anyway. I think it's better to calculate the value of base running separately, which is how I see a lot of analysts do it these days.

 

Serious question... why are BB weighted differently than HBP?

 

HBP's occur in mostly random situations. Even walks recorded as NIBB aren't COMPLETELY random. I believe that's what is slightly pulling down their value.

I'm wondering why wOBA includes RBOE when it doesn't have much to do with the batter's ability.

 

There is a significant variance between different player's RBOE error rates, suggesting it is a skill to some degree.

I'm also wondering why IBBs aren't included.

 

That's a very good question. Here is a very interesting discussion on the topic (start with post #21):

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/rob_neyer_touts_woba/#21

 

Basically, they treat it as a neutral event (why would the manager call for it, otherwise). It neither counts in the numerator or denominator.