When Do We Trade Prince?

[fallingleaves]

yeah, lets trade the best player to wear a brewer uniform in nearly two decades. (/sarcasm) With all the bad contracts coming off the books we should have more than enough money to extend prince for at least five more seasons.

 

Its threads like this that make me feel I need to find a new team to follow as I simply abhor fans who see this as a good idea. Why on earth would you want to trade our best player?

[Oldcity]

Because he won't re-sign here and you could get a crap-ton for him.

[saget]

There is no way Prince resigns here with Boras around. They'll be looking for the $100mill+ contract and he'll get it from someone, but it won't be us.

 

Hence why you trade him before all you get is just comp picks.

[TheCrew07]

This is like the Hardy discussion from last off-season all over again, with the same arguments.

 

I guess if people continue to hold out some hope that Fielder will resign here, like they hoped Sabathia would resign here, then I guess you could make a pretty good case to hang onto Prince. I don't think that's realistic, nor would I sign a guy with his weight issues to a market contract if I'm a GM on a tight budget.

 

The issue at hand here is if Prince's Production + 2 comps picks is worth more to the Brewers than a possible trade haul would be. I tend to use WAR in these arguments, maybe that type of argument goes over someone's head, I'm not sure. I'm not surprised that once again people talk about the offensive side of this argument, when we'll lose his production regardless in the next 2 years. Runs prevented are just as valuable as runs created, why are we happy with an average pitching staff and above average offense? While the end goal is outscoring your opponent, there's literally dozens of different ways to get there in a given game. I tend to eliminate the draft picks from the discussion because they could be Dykstra and Frederickson just as easy as they could be Davis and Heckathorn, the value of a draft pick is nearly impossible to define before the pick is made. Furthermore, as we are dealing with the current MLB team, I think the current production is more relevant than any possible production from draft picks.

 

I know we need pitching, I've been on that bandwagon for a very long time, I'm not sure Prince is the one I would try to move to get it. I was much more inclined to move Fielder before we traded away LaPorta as I still think LaPorta is a 1B in MLB. I still pout that Melvin didn't try to trade Prince for Jame Shields like I suggested last season... given the current state of the team I thought it made sense to move 1 MLB player for multiple high ceiling pieces than trying to trade multiple prospects to acquire 1 proven ace. Now that LaPorta and Co are gone, Sabathia was a rental, and Melvin didn't move Hardy last off season, I'm not sure what the best course of action here is. There isn't any one move that's jumping out at me like in years past.

 

Since I've accepted it's unlikely we'll acquire any top of the rotation talent with Melvin as GM, I'm hoping that Jones, Cody, or Butler will explode and give us another above average starter, and I'll continue to hope that Parra realizes how good his stuff is and begins to capitalize on his talents. In addition I'll be following Rogers and Rivas very closely in AA, as they could realistically make the jump to fill injury holes next season, maybe never relinquishing the rotation spot if they get it.

[ELCABALLO45]

Awhile back on Homer's show they were talking about when to trade Prince and what you could get for him. Mitch, Homer's producer said what if the Dodgers offered James Loney, Andre Ethier and a pitcher for him? Would you do it? I think I would.

I would not do this. Only if the pitcher was Clayton Kershaw.

 

Loney this year...

 

.277/.351/.383 Yes he is slugging .351. He is will be 26 next year. IF we traded Prince I want guys under the age of 25.

 

Either against leftys this year...

 

.198/.287/.356 He is really struggling to hit leftys and he will be 28 next year.

 

I don't think I would do this even if Kershaw was involved. Maybe if you throw in Martin as well we would talk.

[Invader3K]

There is no way Prince resigns here with Boras around. They'll be looking for the $100mill+ contract and he'll get it from someone, but it won't be us.

 

Hence why you trade him before all you get is just comp picks.

The thing is, if they really wanted to give him, say, a 5 year/$100 million contract, they probably could...there will be a ton of money coming off the books after next season.

[BrewCrewForever]

Awhile back on Homer's show they were talking about when to trade Prince and what you could get for him. Mitch, Homer's producer said what if the Dodgers offered James Loney, Andre Ethier and a pitcher for him? Would you do it? I think I would.

I would not do this. Only if the pitcher was Clayton Kershaw.

 

Loney this year...

 

.277/.351/.383 Yes he is slugging .351. He is will be 26 next year. IF we traded Prince I want guys under the age of 25.

 

Either against leftys this year...

 

.198/.287/.356 He is really struggling to hit leftys and he will be 28 next year.

 

I don't think I would do this even if Kershaw was involved. Maybe if you throw in Martin as well we would talk.

I think if Kershaw or Billingsley were the pitcher involved I would do it. I still think Loney could develop more power. As for Ethier I was not aware of his splits vs. LHP. But overall he has some pretty stellar numbers.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

Awhile back on Homer's show they were talking about when to trade Prince and what you could get for him. Mitch, Homer's producer said what if the Dodgers offered James Loney, Andre Ethier and a pitcher for him? Would you do it? I think I would.

I would not do this. Only if the pitcher was Clayton Kershaw.

 

Loney this year...

 

.277/.351/.383 Yes he is slugging .351. He is will be 26 next year. IF we traded Prince I want guys under the age of 25.

 

Either against leftys this year...

 

.198/.287/.356 He is really struggling to hit leftys and he will be 28 next year.

 

I don't think I would do this even if Kershaw was involved. Maybe if you throw in Martin as well we would talk.

I think if Kershaw or Billingsley were the pitcher involved I would do it. I still think Loney could develop more power. As for Ethier I was not aware of his splits vs. LHP. But overall he has some pretty stellar numbers.

 

Etiher and Loney are both making next to nothing and under team control until 2013, and Kershaws making even less, and under team control for well longer. Do you really think that they would trade all 3 for a guy who will be on the last year of a contract?

[endaround]

Fielder for Shields? I can make up trades and then yell at Melvin for not making them too! Last year there was no market for Fielder since the FA market was loaded with no field all bat guys and the Rays got one. Fielder if moved isn't going to bring a top line starter, he'll bring a guy like Bucholz who will likely take at least a year (and likely it will be an AA guy who willr eguire 1-2 years) before bweing dominant. Which means that if you trade Fielder you might as well move Hart, Hardy, Weeks, and Bush as well. That is rebuilding.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, and if I'm not mistaken there's going to be plenty of big basher types on the FA market again...Fielder may be better than most or all of them, though. It doesn't mean we can expect a king's ransom for him, necessarily.

[RockCoCougars]

Shields is the kind of guy I'm talking about 'middle of rotation'. He's above average, but just not that good. Guys are hitting about .275 off him this year. He doesn't strike out a lot of people either. I watched him pitch last night, and they were talking about how he's been falling behind hitters a lot this year. Now I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher- he is, but I'm not trading Prince for him, or for him and a pitching prospect. I'm not trading Prince for any pitching 'prospects' by the way. Most of them don't pan out. If I'm including Prince in a deal, I better be getting someone like Greinke or Hernandez in return. Otherwise, I hang on to him. I'm not trading him for unproven guys like Clay Bucholz, Phil Hughes, etc., etc. It's not like he's a rental player. There are two years before he can be a free agent.

[zzzmanwitz]

Josh Prince cannot be traded... He was just drafted this season. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[nate82]

I disagree. Obviously, Ortiz has been a major disappointment this year. He's going to be 34-years-old soon, so the chances of a big comeback are not good. I think if the Bo Sox miss the playoffs, they'll be looking to upgrade, and might very well target Prince.

You are forgetting Victor Martinez and no he is not a catcher anymore. Martinez is a 1B/DH even if the Red Sox get rid of Ortiz Martinez and Youk are still blocking Fielder. The Red Sox have Martinez for another year yet and they will keep him beyond that one year that they have left. I'm sorry but there is just no room for Prince in Boston with Ortiz, Youk, Martinez, and Bay all taking up spots that Prince would be playing at.

[kramnoj]

Martinez is a 1B/DH even if the Red Sox get rid of Ortiz Martinez and Youk are still blocking Fielder.

 

The team that employs him disagrees with you. He is mostly splitting time between C and 1B.

 

As to the larger point, if the Red Sox thought Fielder was their best solution in the offseason, they may do it. Youk can play 3B, so he wouldn't be blocking Fielder. If Theo really thought that offense was holding them back, I could see a deal where the Red Sox trade a couple of their young pitchers for Fielder, also trade Lowell to the Brewers to play 1B and then the Sox take back Suppan to equal salaries. I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't rule out the Sox as a target.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I wouldn't trade Prince until they are out of it in 2011. Having two special hitters in Braun and Fielder is the reason they have a very solid offense. Trading him for pitching or something else would just transfer the hole to a big one in the middle of our lineup. Prince will be the runner up to Pujols for MVP in the NL this year...it's tough to see Gamel reaching that level.

[nate82]

The team that employs him disagrees with you. He is mostly splitting time between C and 1B.

And Martinez is 30 years old and has been declining defensively as a catcher. He is not going to be the Red Sox everyday catcher for very long maybe for the rest of the season but he will be either their 1B or DH next year. Why trade pitching away when you have two equally as good players in Martinez and Youk? I just don't see the Red Sox trading for Fielder it would cost them too much in terms of prospects that they seem to be wanting to hold onto rather than trade. You know the Brewers are going to ask for a Buchholz, Anderson, Bard, and Bowden in return for Fielder. The Red Sox will say no and the Brewers will not talk to them again about that trade.

[jhart05]

I don't think there is "no-way" the Brewers can resign Prince, even with Bor-ass as his agent.

 

Look at the CC deal. If you believed him or not, Melvin said they will pay the big money for a special player.

 

Prince is becoming, if he's not there already, one of those special players.

 

Don't trade Prince. I don't think a team will give you a #1 or #2 starter for just him alone anyway. Pitching is becoming way too valuable and scarce.

[Patrick425]

thebruce44 wrote:

---

I still don't think Prince is a 5 win player but he will be looking to get paid as one. His BABIP is .340 so some regression should be expected. In the end, I think he is worth 3 wins and will start declining once he hits his FA years. I think there are very compelling reasons to sell high on him even though it would really hurt the team in the short run.

I don't know that I'll ever understand how wins per player is computed. However, if Prince is worth 3 wins, I would assume Braun would be about the same. Then, lets say the rest of the 25 man roster would be worth an average of 1.5 wins a piece (being generous). So, that would leave the Brewers with about 40 wins on the season.

 

I'm guessing that all wins can not be attributable to one player, but still, it seems like a silly stat to me. How can you possibly compute such a number unless you completely disregard intangibles, which I think is a mistake.

[jeffy]

I believe it is wins above replacement (with an average player). So, if he is worth 3 wins, I think it means that a team of average players plus Prince would be 84-78, rather than 81-81.

[zzzmanwitz]

I believe it is wins above replacement (with an average player). So, if he is worth 3 wins, I think it means that a team of average players plus Prince would be 84-78, rather than 81-81.

 

Right concept, wrong starting point. A team of replacement level players would not win 81 games. I believe a team of replacement level wins about 60-65 games, it may even be lower.

 

According to baseball reference, a team of 9 Prince Fielders batting (assuming average Fielding and Defense) would account for a .764 Winning Percentage this season. For reference...

 

Braun .737

Lopez .601

Counsell .542

Hart .521

Pujols .802

Mauer .825

Hall .249

[logan82]

I think a replacement player is generally thought to be somebody who would produce at a level 75% of an average player. Usually with average defense.

[rluzinski]

As defined by Tangotiger (and basically copied by Fangraphs), Replacement level is about 2 wins below average. So if you 1-8 batters who were all 3 WAR and everything else was average, you'd win 89 games. Replacement level is a nice baseline, since we know the value of a AAAA player, league minimum. The tango/fangraphs method of assigning value assumes that every win above replacement level is worth about $4.5 mil. It doesn't matter if the player is 3 WAR or 6 WAR. His total value is just WAR x $/WAR. Like anything, it's all just a best guess estimate but it seems to work pretty well in predicting what teams are willing to spend in free agency, so sounds good to me.

 

And no, none of that includes the value of intangibles, since by definition, it doesn't have a quantifiable value. I try not to spend my money on things that have a completely unknown value, personally.

 

Prince is one pace for a 6 WAR season. He was at 2.6 and 4.9 for the preceding 2 years. A projection for 2010 and 2011 might be around 4.5 for each year? Obviously, if Melvin can't get more than 9 WAR for the price Prince will get over the next 2 years, there's little point in trading him. If he could get 15 WAR in return but they would be spread out between 2010-2014, Melvin has to decide where he wants the wins. i find it hard to see how the Brewers could be legitimate contenders next year, so my vote would be to move him if the offer good.

 

And I think some will never appreciate the concept of "projected production minus salary". If the only way the Brewers can sign Fielder is by paying him more than he's worth to them, they've already lost. That money can most likely be used more efficiently somewhere else. Also remember, the value of a win for each team is different. Anytime the Brewers go up against the Yankees or Boston for a free agent, they HAVE to overspend to get that player. Those are the kind of situations the Crew has to avoid.

 

What do people really think are the odds of the Brewers resigning Fielder? I'd put it at less than 10%, easy. And as enjoyable as he is to watch, I don't think it will be in the best interest of the Brewers to resign him. But I have to take of my "fan" hat to come to that conclusion.

[nate82]

And I think some will never appreciate the concept of "projected production minus salary". If the only way the Brewers can sign Fielder is by paying him more than he's worth to them, they've already lost. That money can most likely be used more efficiently somewhere else. Also remember, the value of a win for each team is different. Anytime the Brewers go up against the Yankees or Boston for a free agent, they HAVE to overspend to get that player. Those are the kind of situations the Crew has to avoid.

The Brewers can overpay for players in terms of dollars but what the Brewers can not do is overpay in terms of years. The worst thing the Brewers can do is overpay in terms of dollars and years which is what happened with Suppan. I would have rather have had paid Suppan an extra $3-5 million more for two less years of Suppan last year would have been Suppans free agency year. Over paying in terms of dollars is what the Brewers can do IE Gagne but they can not do a Suppan deal over paying in dollars and years those kind of deals cripple the franchise unlike one or two years like Cameron and Gagne.

[Patrick425]

And no, none of that includes the value of intangibles, since by definition, it doesn't have a quantifiable value. I try not to spend my money on things that have a completely unknown value, personally.

I guess I just will always be sceptical about stats that try to predict (although, I'm somewhat coming around to the whole babip thing). Things happen in sports that can not be quantified. They happen every year, every week, every day. I know that the argument is that these stats have been pretty accurate in predicting wins. Not so. From what I understand, in proving the "predictibility" of these stats they take each players stats at the end of the year and compare to year end wins. That's not predictive. Tampa Bay's stats at the end of last year probably was in line with the number of games they won, but I'm guessing that no statistion or saber metrics could have predicted before the 08' season started that they would win 97 games.

[Ennder]

Tampa Bay's stats at the end of last year probably was in line with the number of games they won, but I'm guessing that no statistion or saber metrics could have predicted before the 08' season started that they would win 97 games.

 

BPro did project them to be in the playoff race though even though most 'experts' still had them in last place. Baseball is a highly random sport so you will never be able to predict wins or stats accurately but predicting it 'better' is a good start.