When Do We Trade Prince?

[chuckcrim]

At what point do we trade the top young slugger in the game to get maximum value in return? It's quite evident this team needs pitching and Prince will get us just that. This offseason? Next offseason? Final year of deal at AS break? I'm thinking we'll wait until after next season.

[Invader3K]

They can't trade him before next season unless they decide to go into a complete rebuilding mode. The problem is they don't have anyone waiting in the wings to play first base (please don't say Gamel either).

 

I hope they make more than a token effort to re-sign him before 2011, personally. Then if they are out of it by mid-2011, they could trade him at the All-Star break and probably still get a decent return. Keeping him for two more years ensures the team can stay competitive offensively for the next couple seasons...I'm not sure they will get enough in a trade to off-set his loss at this point.

[nate82]

At what point do we trade the top young slugger in the game to get maximum value in return? It's quite evident this team needs pitching and Prince will get us just that. This offseason? Next offseason? Final year of deal at AS break? I'm thinking we'll wait until after next season.

I think never. I don't think the Brewers will ever trade Prince unless they get a deal that the Rangers got for Teixeira. Trading Prince would help in getting pitching but you are also losing a lot of offensive production by doing so. I'm not sold on Gamel being able to pick up the slack even if his defense would be better at 1B.

 

I wouldn't mind a Smoak + deal from the Rangers for Fielder but I highly doubt that will happen. Only other team I can think of that will trade MLB ready pitching and a positional player would be the Angels. I would do a Reckling and Tremblo + deal for Fielder but the Angels don't really need Fielder with all the spots Fielder could play being blocked DH and 1B are already being held by players who look to be locks to be staying there.

[zzzmanwitz]

Not that i'm advocating trading prince now... but Invader, why do you say Gamel shouldn't be in the discussion to take over for Prince at 1B?

[WisconsinSportsRule]

After these last few weeks, it's real evident to me that this team has to try to sign Prince long term. With a one-two punch of Braun and Fielder along with Gallardo and Parra, this team would have an exception young core. Isn't Prince only 23?

[Invader3K]

Not that i'm advocating trading prince now... but Invader, why do you say Gamel shouldn't be in the discussion to take over for Prince at 1B?

Because he's never played there (as far as I know), and will not come close to matching Prince's production. He also looks like he could be an above average 3B, so I'd rather keep him there, rather than shoehorn him into a new position.

[dadofandrew]

I think they'll offer him an extension after the '10 season. I assume he will turn it down, and not make a counteroffer. Then, the calls will begin.

[Mr QL]

I think I'm moving towards the "lets resign Prince" camp. We'd be really really bad without him.

 

I guess it depends on what type of value you're getting.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

I think I'm moving towards the "lets resign Prince" camp. We'd be really really bad without him.

 

I guess it depends on what type of value you're getting.

I wouldnt bank on resigning Prince. When 2011 rolls around, there will be a lot of big money teams willing to give him really, really big contracts, and Scott Boras really, really likes money.

[Ennder]

Probably trade him after 2010 if it seems to make sense. Just way too hard to know what things will look like after another season though.

[thebruce44]

I still don't think Prince is a 5 win player but he will be looking to get paid as one. His BABIP is .340 so some regression should be expected. In the end, I think he is worth 3 wins and will start declining once he hits his FA years. I think there are very compelling reasons to sell high on him even though it would really hurt the team in the short run.

[Invader3K]

"start declining once he hits his FA years".

 

He'll be 28 then...do you really think he'll decline that significantly before 30 or so?

[PlayerHader]

I think you have to keep him through next year for sure and then re-evaluate. If you are one very good arm away from being the NL favorites, you get the arm and keep Prince, at least til mid-year to see how things are. If you are going into 2011 the same way it seems like we'll be going into 2010 (more than once piece away) then you pull the trigger on a monster deal.

[trwi7]

I'd field offers this offseason. If you wait until next offseason, his value is going to go down since there's only one year left before free agency. It would also be nice to sell high on a player.

[monty57]

This offseason would be his highest value year, but I think we can only trade him this offseason if we are willing to give up on next season before it begins. Logically, that might make sense, as we could rebuild for when we'd be free of the Hall and Suppan deals, and our young pitchers could start filling in the rotation, but it would be a horrible PR move, and we'd be lucky to sell 2MM tickets in 2011.

 

I would love to see Prince sign a four-year deal this offseason, buying out two years of FA. It seems unlikely to happen, due to the presence of Boras, but I'd bet the Brewers will at least put the offer on the table, as Prince is good, young and marketable. If he will not sign an extension, I could see him being traded mid-season next year if we aren't in the hunt, avoiding the arbitration mess the following offseason, and allowing the big market team he'd be traded to to work out an extension.

 

As much as I like Prince and wish he could be a Brewer for a long time, I'd hate to see him leave and have us only get a couple of draft picks.

[Jay Zahn]

I still don't think Prince is a 5 win player but he will be looking to get paid as one. His BABIP is .340 so some regression should be expected. In the end, I think he is worth 3 wins and will start declining once he hits his FA years. I think there are very compelling reasons to sell high on him even though it would really hurt the team in the short run.

BABIP is a fairly useless stat when evaluating hitters, since it can vary widely depending on skill. Hitters are not pitchers.

[Diskono]

BABIP is a fairly useless stat when evaluating hitters, since it can vary widely depending on skill. Hitters are not pitchers.

At the very least, BABIP should only be used to compare hitters with themselves. His current BABIP is higher than his previous career, but you could easily attribute that to him improving as a hitter.

[logan82]

Prince usually sits in the .290-.300 range for BABIP though. Individual players will hit will usually hit close to their career BABIP.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers are going to have tough time selling tickets as it is for 2010. I would rather hold onto him until at least after the 2010 season. If he validates this year's Pujols-like season, with another 40+ HR, 130 RBI, .310/.415/.605 season, his value could actually go up even with just a year on his deal left. Not many 1st baseman get value in return because it's not that hard to find good production at the position and he's still in Pujols' shadow. But another monster year and the buzz nationally will increase by leaps and bounds. It's that national buzz that makes teams pony up real value.

 

Then if no replacement emerges from within or comes back in the trade, they could go out and get a guy like Konerko who will be 35 and a FA in 2011, and probably reasonable on a very short term deal. That should buy enough time for Lawrie (yes I know Lawrie's been at 2B, but ultimately he could end up at 1st if he hits like he's been touted to) to take over in 2012.

[sheethead]

If 2010 looks like it will be similar to 2009, and if really feels that way, I don't see how keeping Prince around for another year would do anything other than sell a few more tickets. I am going to hate to see him go no matter when it happens, but it clearly is a "when" and not an "if." So why not sell high for a change, its been a while (Sexson). Melvin is likely to accept a bag of peanuts for Hardy, just got a bag of popcorn for Hall (whom he could have sold way high on), so he needs to hit on someone to keep this ship going long term. But, is the return value going to be out there? That is the biggest unexplained variable that will eventually work itself out.

[DougJones43]

I would explore all possibilities to trade Prince after this season. We should be able to get an absolute bounty for him, including starting pitching. Let some of the big boys know he's on the trading block, and let them start competing against each other with packages.

 

I know it will put a huge dent in our offense, but I'm more confident in guys like Gamel (and a returning Weeks) to fill some of the offensive hole than I am of anybody currently in the organization filling the gaping hole in our pitching staff. I'd be willing to take the hit on offense, because there is just no way the team can compete with the pitching it has. The makeup of the roster needs a major overhaul, and Prince is the only tradeable piece we have significant enough to change the complexion of the team.

[The Truth]

As we have seen repeatedly this season, it doesn't matter how strong the hitting is if you don't have enough pitching. As much as I like and admire Prince, I say trade him ASAP but only after replacing Doug Melvin. I don't want Melvin doing this trade.

 

I'd much rather trade Prince, Hardy, and maybe even Hart for pitching and take our chances on trying to win 3-2 or 4-3 games as opposed to constantly (seemingly) needing to score 6 or 7 runs to win a game.

[nate82]

If you trade Prince what does that tell Braun? Also what will be the implications of Braun not having Fielder batting behind him? Will Braun's numbers take a dip? I don't think Braun is patient enough at the plate to be as productive as he has been without Prince batting behind him. Gamel just doesn't give that kind of a fear factor behind Braun as Prince does. Pitchers will pitch differently to Braun than they have been now with Fielder behind him. Could Gamel and Weeks pick it up and be as productive as Fielder? Sure they could but I highly doubt they will.

 

There are three teams out there that could afford Prince in terms of prospects those teams are the Red Sox, Rangers, and Angels and there are a couple of maybe teams Mariners, Giants, and Yankees.

 

For the Rangers it would be something like Smoak, Holland, and a pick of one or two B type prospects. For the Angels it would start with Reckling/O'Sullivan, Trumbo, and a couple of other B type prospects. For the Red Sox just add whatever they were rumored to be giving up for Halladay and add Anderson to that list. For the Mariners it would probably would be a straight up swap of Hernandez for Fielder. For the Giants it would be Bumgarner and a couple of B type prospects. For the Yankees it would be Jackson/Hughes plus more that the Yankees do not have.

 

The Angels have Morales and Vlad at DH and 1B so that is probably a no go. The Red Sox have Youk and Ortiz at DH and 1B again another no go and I don't see the Red Sox giving up on Ortiz any time soon. The Rangers have Davis and Smoak this is probably the most likely place for Fielder to go since Davis has been disappointing for the Rangers so far this year he has the power but he has no discipline at the plate he is a real true HR or strike out hitter right now. The Giants are also a likely candidate for a trade but they have been reluctant and over valuing their players recently especially their pitchers. I believe the Giants wanted both Hardy and Hart for a Sanchez trade this last offseason. I doubt the Giants will actually do a trade. Then you have the Yankees who really don't have the talent or the spots open for Fielder. Both DH and 1B are going to be occupied for a very long time with the Yankees.

 

The Mets would work but they don't have the talent but they do have a vacancy at 1B though. I just don't see the teams available for the Brewers to trade with to get the right amount of talent back. The teams that do have the right kind of talent don't have a spot open for Fielder except for one or two teams.

[DougJones43]

If you trade Prince what does that tell Braun?

That they aren't happy fielding a 4th place team with a .483 winning percentage?

 

The Red Sox have Youk and Ortiz at DH and 1B again another no go and I don't see the Red Sox giving up on Ortiz any time soon.

I disagree. Obviously, Ortiz has been a major disappointment this year. He's going to be 34-years-old soon, so the chances of a big comeback are not good. I think if the Bo Sox miss the playoffs, they'll be looking to upgrade, and might very well target Prince.

[The Truth]

I think one of the things a Prince trade would tell Braun is: he better work harder on his defense, because pitching and defense are going to be at a premium in a post-Prince era if he is dealt for young pitching.

 

To me, though, you absolutely must fire Doug Melvin before trading Prince. I shudder at the thought of whom Melvin would trade Prince for. 2 Jeff Suppan's circa 2006 and a Kevin Mench style first baseman are my first inclination. Even if you tell Melvin he must trade Prince only for young pitchers, I'm not confident as to his ability to judge pitching talent.