My 2010 lineup and bench

[nate82]

How is a below league average ERA good? Also, lots of pitchers batttle injury during the season, but theyjust pitch better the rest of the year to make up for it.

Nice strawman argument you got going there. You just said in your last post that an ERA about 4.30 is league average and that is a #3 pitcher. Now you are saying that it is a below average ERA? Make up your mind already is something about 4.30 ERA league average or below league average? Pick one already.

[Never Outhustled]

Nice strawman argument you got going there. You just said in your last post that an ERA about 4.30 is league average and that is a #3 pitcher. Now you are saying that it is a below average ERA? Make up your mind already is something about 4.30 ERA league average or below league average? Pick one already.

Bush's ERA was below the league average before the Florida game. Look up the stats yourself before resorting to condesention.

[Teatoe993]

What is the status on Capuano? From what I remember, I don't think we have him under contract next year. Seeing that he's finally making some rehab appearances, it seems like there is a chance he could be ready for next year. I wonder if anyone will take a flier on him if he's a free agent. I'd love for him to come back on a minor league deal and see if he can earn his way back into the rotation. I'm not saying he's an answer to the WOAH'S of our rotation, but he'd be a nice wildcard to have and help the depth of the rotation when injuries happen.

[Never Outhustled]

What is the status on Capuano? From what I remember, I don't think we have him under contract next year. Seeing that he's finally making some rehab appearances, it seems like there is a chance he could be ready for next year.

He won't get any better offers than minor league deals, so I see no reason why he'd go somewhere else. Its a tough deal to make it back from a 2nd TJ surgery, but if anyone has the work ethic to do it, its Cappy.

 

I wonder if he'll play winter ball to increase his stock?

[dadofandrew]

Winter ball is unlikely, as he'll have a strict pitch count and rehab to do, not friendly for the win at all costs Latino leagues.

[logan82]

The league average ERA you cite is for all pitchers. What is the league average ERA for starters only?

 

Here is the article Al referred to earlier about starter ERA. Link

 

 Lg #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 MLB 3.60 4.14 4.58 5.10 6.24 AL 3.70 4.24 4.58 5.09 6.22 NL 3.51 4.04 4.57 5.11 6.26 

[joepepsi]

Bush's ERA was below the league average before the Florida game. Look up the stats yourself before resorting to condesention.

Actually it was 4.38 at the start of the Florida game. According to logan's chart that puts him somewhere between a 2 and 3.

 

The Brewers need a good left handed starter that can slide into that 2 hole. Bush is then the no. 3, Parra and Suppan take up the rear. It was probably a mistake to assume Parra was prepared to be that top of the rotation lefty this year.

[Ennder]

I don't think they assumed Parra would be a top of the rotation lefty, I think they just ran out of affordable options.

 

As for the Overbay trade, we got a league average SP for a league average 1B, even without looking at the other players I'm confused how this can be a bad thing. Overbay was not some hot commodity that should have returned a great player.

[Never Outhustled]

Actually it was 4.38 at the start of the Florida game. According to logan's chart that puts him somewhere between a 2 and 3.

The NL average ERA for starting pitchers is 4.37 right now.

 

 

By the end of this year, Bush will be averaging about 1 WAR over his last 3 years. He has not been responsible for the limited success we've had.

[trwi7]

The league average ERA you cite is for all pitchers. What is the league average ERA for starters only?

 

Here is the article Al referred to earlier about starter ERA. Link

 

 Lg #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 MLB 3.60 4.14 4.58 5.10 6.24 AL 3.70 4.24 4.58 5.09 6.22 NL 3.51 4.04 4.57 5.11 6.26 

 

That's from 2006. I wonder what it is now. And yeah, lots of terrible teams are going to have terrible pitching. Lots of young guys are going to get knocked around. The problem is though, if you're trying to contend, you probably shouldn't be looking at this chart and saying "oh, we match up pretty well with all of this, so our pitching is fine."

[nate82]

Bush's ERA was below the league average before the Florida game. Look up the stats yourself before resorting to condesention.

Bush's May ERA was 4.30. I think it is you who needs to look up the stats before spouting off. By your definition that means Bush was a #3 starter. His April was just a little worse but still in the ballpark of your definition with a 4.50 ERA. Now which is it is a 4.30 league average or below league average?

[trwi7]

Bush's May ERA was 4.30. I think it is you who needs to look up the stats before spouting off. By your definition that means Bush was a #3 starter. His April was just a little worse but still in the ballpark of your definition with a 4.50 ERA. Now which is it is a 4.30 league average or below league average?

That was an incredibly lucky 4.30 ERA. Seriously. 10 HR's in less than 40 innings and he still had a 4.30 ERA. If I'm calculating it right, that's a 5.93 FIP. You can't expect a guy to pitch like Bush did in May and maintain a 4.30 ERA.

[monty57]

I think there might be a forest for the trees arguement going on here. Whether Bush is best classified as a #2, #3, #4 or #5, I think the odds of him being in the Brewers' rotation next year (barring major injury before then) is probably 99%. First, we need to find a starter to replace Looper, as there is a good chance he will not be back next year. If that starter is better than Bush, Suppan and Parra, and we pick up a second pitcher in the offseason who is better than Bush, Suppan and Parra, then we will need to determine which of those three wil not be in the rotation. Until and unless that happens, we will likely see Yo, Bush, Parra and Suppan in the 2010 rotation.

 

As for the 2010 lineup, my guess would be:

 

C Salome*

1B Prince

2B Weeks

SS Escobar, although I'm beginning to believe that Hardy may have lowered his trade value so much that he may start the 2010 season with the Brewers

3B Gamel*

LF Braun

CF Gerut*

RF Hart

 

C Rivera

IF McGehee

IF Counsell

OF Bourgeois-type*

OF Katin-type*

 

SP Yo

SP Parra

SP Bush

SP Suppan

SP either FA or traded for

 

CL Hoffman - we'll offer him arby and no one will give up first rounder for him, so he'll be back for one year

SU Coffey

RP Stetter

RP Villy

RP DiFelice

RP McClung

RP someone like Narveson or Smith from minors

 

* If Macha is still manager, none of these players would ever see the field unless Melvin / Mark A. held a gun to the manager's head

 

I'm torn on Hardy. I assumed he would be gone, but he's played Melvin into a tough situation. He probably won't net much in a trade anymore, so I'd probably rather keep him than trade him simply for salary relief. However, if his salary were off the books, and we don't bring Kendall, Lopez, Looper and Cameron back, we should be able to compete for a good FA starter this offseason (in the $10-15MM/year range).

 

I'd like to see a "big trade" this offseason, but the usual suspects (Hardy, Hart, Weeks) would be major selling low deals. Unless Fielder, Gamel or Escobar are traded, I don't see a good, young starter coming back via trade. More likely, we'll need to let some of our expiring contracts fall off the books and hope to land a big free agent. Given our past experiences with this, it's a little scary.

[Never Outhustled]

Bush's May ERA was 4.30. I think it is you who needs to look up the stats before spouting off.

Why do I give a hoot what Bush's May ERA was? He was only league average in his best month, and worse than that in the other months. How is that average?

 

I hope you realize that the league average stats also includes all the other pitchers who also pitched through a tough stretch because of injury. It all counts. That why we try to use the largest sample possible. Unfortunately for Bush, this is the 2nd time in 3 years he's had an ERA over 5, and in the other year he was only 1 WAR.

 

I like the guy, great competitor, just wish he had the talent some of the other pitchers have. He deserves success more than many others.

[paul253]

If Jody Gerut is our opening day center fielder I will give up on this team right now.

 

I was wondering if Mike Jones might be an option for the number 5 starter. He seems to have been treated fairly aggressively this season, making it all the way up to Nashville. He's pitching pretty darn well tonight. I would really be disappointed if, after all this time, he makes his major league debut somewhere other than in Milwaukee. Personally I would rather give him a shot with Chris Cody and Josh Butler as backup options then spending some ridiculous amount of money on a below average free agent pitcher.

[logan82]

I think in Bush's case this year we are better off going with his ERA at the point of his injury which I believe was about 4.58. It inflated greatly after the Florida start where he got hit on the arm. Saying Bush is a 5+ ERA pitcher is probably not true.

[LouisEly]

* If Macha is still manager, none of these players would ever see the field unless Melvin / Mark A. held a gun to the manager's head

 

Beautiful... but Braun and Hart would have a lot of ground to cover. While I generally want Cam back, the fact is if they can't get a good starter for Hardy they might just have to let Cam walk and take his salary and put it towards pitching. Again, not want to - have to. Either that, or the 2010 rotation... is Gallardo, Bush, Parra, Looper, Suppan. Don't know if I speculated this elsewhere, but if Noah Lowry is ready to pitch next year some type of deal with SF involving Hardy for Lowry as the key components might be realistic. Sabean likes vets, so a Hardy+Hart+Peralta+Rivas for Cain might be more tempting than you think, especially since Hardy's value is inflated by his likely Type A free agent status.

 

While Jones would be a great story, in reality he hasn't had that great of a season this year to make me think that one good AAA start is the norm and not the exception; I'd need to see more before handing over the #5 spot to him. AAA depth will probably be Butler, Jones, Cody, Cappy, Hand.

 

While I think a package of Hart and Hardy might be very appealing to SF, the reality of the complete lack of OF depth in the upper levels of the system makes me think he will be back. I'd like to see Cat back as well as he is a good bench bat.

[Never Outhustled]

Why would San Fran have any interest in Hardy when they already have Renteria under contract? Hart makes alot of sense for them.

[Ennder]

Bush's May ERA was 4.30. I think it is you who needs to look up the stats before spouting off. By your definition that means Bush was a #3 starter. His April was just a little worse but still in the ballpark of your definition with a 4.50 ERA. Now which is it is a 4.30 league average or below league average?

That was an incredibly lucky 4.30 ERA. Seriously. 10 HR's in less than 40 innings and he still had a 4.30 ERA. If I'm calculating it right, that's a 5.93 FIP. You can't expect a guy to pitch like Bush did in May and maintain a 4.30 ERA.

HR/FB is more of a luck based stat than anything in the first place so I really wouldn't put much stock into this.

[Gosling Joe]

MY FIRST POST! How exciting (for me - at least.) Thanks to all of you that post regularly. I have enjoyed reading these over the last couple of years.

My lineup next year:

Escobar SS
Lopez 2B
Braun LF
Fielder 1B
Gamel 3B
Weeks CF
Hart RF
Salome C

Off the bench: McGehee, Catalanato, Counsell, Gerut, Rivera

I think that we need to use the platoon system sparingly in the future. I don't care for the use of the lefty/righty matchups every game. It would be a mistake to platoon Gamel and McGehee next year. Gamel is going to be your guy, play him against left handed pitchers. Prince hasn't always mashed lefties like he has this year and he wouldn't have this year if he would have been yanked every time a lefty was on the hill. There needs to be some consistency to our lineup.

Love Ricky in centerfield. If Bill Hall could play it with some success, no doubt that Weeks can as well. Have enjoyed Cam out there but he isn't worth the cash he will cost to keep. Need to do whatever we need to do to keep Lopez. Lock him up with a multiyear deal. Haven't given up on Hart. Would not get anything for him anyways. My only hesitation with this lineup is at catcher. No one in the organization seems all that excited about Salome anymore. Are they becoming frustrated with injuries or is he maybe not what they thought he was? Don't know that there are any better options available through free agency or trade. I am aware that there are a fair amount of contributors to this site that will help Kendall pack.

Addressing pitching might be a little aggressive for my first post. All I can say is that we need to make a splash. Right now we have the best 3-4 hitter combo in the game. We can't continue to waste this. The window is closing. If they need to take on salary (maybe even overpay a little) or trade some of the promising kids to get pitching, got to do it and do it now.

 

[paul253]

I didnt want to start a new thread for this, but I've been thinking it over. I think the best way to handle the lineup next season is like this. Trade Hardy and Hart for pitching and just hope that its enough to get you a pitcher or two that will be enough to stay afloat. There should be a little more depth with Butler and hopefully Jones in AAA as well. But unless you trade Fielder, you're not going to get what we really need, which is a #2 pitcher to push everyone down a slot. I would then move Gamel to right field and play Casey Mcgehee at thirdbase. I guess let Lopez walk because theres really no need to have both him and Weeks on the team. Unless you trade Weeks, in which you'll get basically nothig in return, theres really no need to keep Lopez, plus you get a couple of picks if he signs elsewhere. As much as I dislike the type of offense Cameron brings, a one year deal for is probably the best option. So anyway, the lineup would be as follows:

 

1) Escobar SS

2) Weeks 2B

3) Braun LF

4) Fielder 1B

5) McGehee 3B

6) Gamel RF

7) Cameron CF

8) Rivera/Salome C

 

The utility infielders would be, hopefully, Counsell and Heether (I'm still ticked off he didnt get called up and don't really expect him to be willing to resign with a team that refuses to give him an oppurtunity despite him more than earning one, but I can dream). That would leave you to find two backup outfielders, one of which can be Gerut.

[Ennder]

I don't know the specific players but there are a few guidelines I'd like to follow.

 

Someone other than Kendall at C.

Depth at 2B/SS/3B. None of our options at any of those positions have played a full healthy season in the majors except Lopez. We need to have significant depth in this area.

Trade Hardy/Hart or whoever for AAA pitching. I don't care if we upgrade the front 5 starters all that much, it would be nice but I just don't see it being very likely. However we need to have real depth in place so when someone gets hurt or Parra struggles again it isn't a disaster like it was this season.

[NievesNoNO]

1)Weeks

2)Escobar

3)Braun

4)Fielder

5)McGee

6)Hart

7)Cameron

8)Rivera

 

Bench ??

 

1)Yo

2)Brett Myers (FA)

3)Jonathan Sanchez (trade Gamel)

4)Guthrie (trade Hardy)

5)Parra

 

Bush

Suppan

Coffey

Hoffman

Stetter

Riske

Weathers

[Postseason2006]

Does anyone think that Kendall will be brought back. I will honestly be sick to my stomach if he comes back at all.

[NievesNoNO]

Postseason2006[/b]]Does anyone think that Kendall will be brought back. I will honestly be sick to my stomach if he comes back at all.

Hopefully not. When the best thing people say about a catcher is he calls a good game and is a good clubhouse guy, he probably deserves a backup roll. Yes, way back when, before he snapped his ankle, he was good. Worst case scenario is Rivera and Salome are no better, but why not give them a shot at least.