What if the offseason went differently?

[nate82]

What if Sabathia instead of signing with the Yankees signed with Milwaukee. Would the season be any different? Short answer no.

 

Now lets say everything stays the same as the way that we know it Bush, Weeks, and Suppan all go down with injuries and miss time. Right now you would be looking at a rotation of Sabathia, Gallardo, Parra, Burns, and ?????. Now take into consideration that McClung still goes down with an injury that means you are down to Villanueva and Coffey as your closer. The Brewers are also not able to trade for Lopez you can take that as a good or a bad thing to happen.

 

The starting lineup probably looks like this:

2B Counsell

CF Cameron

LF Braun

1B Fielder

3B McGehee

RF Cat

SS Hardy

C Kendall

 

Now you are putting extra pressure on both Counsell and McGehee to succeed and if Hardy was playing like he was and with Hart having another erratic year and going down on the DL that offense looks even worse than what it is right now. Also the rotation isn't any better with Sabathia in it right now. You are basically hanging your hopes on Gallardo and Sabathia to be perfect almost every time out.

 

Now another popular idea was Melvin trading Hardy/Hart in the offseason for some pitching. The same problem still exists here just replace Looper with the pitcher received from the Hardy/Hart trade. I'm sorry but I just do not see how this season would have been any different with a free agent signing, a trade, or if the Brewers somehow were able to keep Sabathia. If the Brewers were able to keep Sabathia that means Villanueva or Coffey would have been the closer there wouldn't have been enough money for Hoffman.

 

The Brewers were really relying on Parra, Gallardo, and Bush to have a great year this year and even with an addition through a trade from either trading Hardy or Hart the Brewers would still have had to rely on a big year from at least two of those three. Suppan would still have been in the rotation and depending who the Brewers got in a trade for Hardy or Hart there may or may not have been enough room to sign Hoffman. Now take into account you would still be relying on Burns, Dillard, etc... to fill in for an injury.

 

I just don't know why some people thought we were just one starter away from having a really good team in the offseason. It was not just a starter that this team needed in the offseason. This team needed bullpen help which Hoffman has helped and starting pitching help. The Brewers needed a #2 or #1 type of a starter to put in their rotation and there wasn't any available that would have been inside the budget for the Brewers. Edwin Jackson would have been considered a fringe #3 starter at best in the offseason probably a #4 starter which would have cost the Brewers at least Hart if not more to get him. That is the only player I can think of that the Brewers could have legitimately went after and he would have helped the team more than Looper and would have allowed the Brewers to sign Hoffman. That still wouldn't have fixed the depth for pitching though. You would still have to rely on Burns, Dillard, or a Mulder or someone like that to take over for an injury. I'm not sure going with Escobar or someone else in RF would have been a wise move for the Brewers either.

 

I just don't see what the Brewers could have done differently this last offseason. There were a lot of holes in this team and only so much money to go around and talent to be spread around to get the pitching that would have been needed. I do believe this offseason will be different and the Brewers will be going in another direction in regards with Hart, Hardy, Kendall, and Looper. The Brewers and the Rays will match up nicely with one another and I believe a trade will be possible between the two. The Giants also match up nicely with the Brewers as trading partners.

[yogallardo43]

Great post. Do anybody really think that Melvin was horrible this offseason. I mean, really, what could he have done differently/better? Nobody thought that Looper was going to be this ineffective.

[yogallardo43]

I wrote an article on this in my blog. Here is a link to it. Thanks guys

 

http://brewcrewdaily.blogspot.com/2009/08/what-should-melvin-have-done.html

[Pioneers3]

I don't think Brewer fans and MLB fans realize how close CC was to resigning with the Brewers, if it was a little closer in $ he would have resigned

[bklynbrewcrew]

I dont think that signing Sabathia would have helped much because we would probably have Melky Cabrera in CF instead of Cameron and no Hoffman. If you give us Sabathia and subtract Cameron and Hoffman we are probably a game or two better with no payroll flexibility going forward so I am happy Sabathia didnt resign.

 

The bigger problem is that Melvin held onto Hardy and especially Hart one season too long. The decision with Hardy needed to be made last offseason; sign him long term and trade Escobar or trade him. Now we have Hardy one season away from free agency and coming off a horrible season. Now dont get me wrong I didnt see Hardy having a bad year but we had to make a decision last offseason on the long term future of JJ within the organization. As for Hart with our lineup being solid and with many good FA options in the outfield he definitely needed to be moved last year. If Tampa moved Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce there is a good chance we could have traded Hart for Jackson. There have also been rumors that we could have traded Hart for Greinke last season which makes me cringe if true.

 

I am convinced at this point that Melvin has a fatal flaw in how he puts together pitching staffs. He is too content filling his rotations with soft tossers that have little to no upside. We saw this in Texas when his staffs were lead by the likes of Burkett and Helling and now with the Brewers we are left relying on the likes of Suppan and Looper. Other than Gallardo has Melvin ever had a young power arm with ace stuff on his staffs. You can make that argument about Parra I suppose but the consistency has never been there with Manny. Even this year we have been linked to guys like Doug Davis, Jarod Washburn, and Brian Bannister who are all guys short on stuff.

 

Melvin is really gonna have to go out and acquire young, power arms if we are gonna contend next year. If we go into 2010 with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan and a Davis or Washburn type we will be in this same position next year. I fear that Doug is going to have to trade Gamel to get this pitching because he held onto Hardy and Hart one year too long.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

I don't think Brewer fans and MLB fans realize how close CC was to resigning with the Brewers, if it was a little closer in $ he would have resigned

 

CC Didnt want to be a Yankee from what I gather, but when they offered him that monster deal, the player association essentially forced him to take it. Remember, he really wanted to be a Dodgers or an Angel, and I have trouble beliebing that one of them wouldnt be able to sign him if that Yankees deal was pulled off the table.

[logan82]

In hindsight, the only thing that makes sense for last offseason would be to trade guys like Hardy, Hart and Cameron for prospects and build towards 2010 and later. If Bush and Parra don't dramatically underperform and Bush doesn't get injured we are one pitcher away. That one pitcher would have likely cost us other key pieces though. Those 2 guys performing like expected probably puts us in the mid eighties for wins. With a little luck we find ourselves right in the middle of things. I still thought we were on the outside looking in for the playoffs for the season.

[Hate those Rodents]

I fear that Doug is going to have to trade Gamel to get this pitching because he held onto Hardy and Hart one year too long.

I think this is precisely why Hardy will be down in AAA for a couple days after September 1st. I think trading Hardy with two years left on his deal might get us someone like Guthrie from Baltimore. And I believe we can then add a Washburn/Davis and then stash Suppan in the long relief role/6th starter when an injury occurs.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Adding Guthrie will not make us a contender.

[nate82]

The bigger problem is that Melvin held onto Hardy and especially Hart one season too long. The decision with Hardy needed to be made last offseason; sign him long term and trade Escobar or trade him. Now we have Hardy one season away from free agency and coming off a horrible season. Now dont get me wrong I didnt see Hardy having a bad year but we had to make a decision last offseason on the long term future of JJ within the organization. As for Hart with our lineup being solid and with many good FA options in the outfield he definitely needed to be moved last year. If Tampa moved Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce there is a good chance we could have traded Hart for Jackson. There have also been rumors that we could have traded Hart for Greinke last season which makes me cringe if true.

You could make a case for Hardy but I don't think anyone thought Hardy was going to have a year like he is having. I believe holding onto Hardy was the right move I didn't see anyone that would have been available who would have been an impact pitcher that was available. Escobar was also not yet ready to be playing every day at SS in the majors. Also if you trade Hart you have to plug that hole up with someone.

 

The Hart for Greinke rumor is completely untrue. When was the last time the Royals traded one of their hyped prospects? DeJesus never got traded even though he was rumored every year to be traded to someone. Which I believe is really bad for the Royals fans they could be reaping the benefits of a DeJesus trade right around now. Greinke would have been out of the question.

 

Hart may not have been enough to get Jackson from the Rays since Hart lost a lot of his luster after the All Star break last year. With free agency having very little good OF that were at a decent price for the Brewers to replace Hart I can see why Melvin didn't trade Hart also.

 

I believe this is the offseason that the moves that should have been done last year that didn't get done because of other factors out of Melvin's control where just not right. This offseason you have the Rays who have to make a decision on Kazmir and Crawford on who they are going to keep. I'm hoping the Brewers push hard for Kazmir by trading Hart to the Rays (obviously not a straight up swap of Hart for Kazmir) who can then trade Crawford for some young pitching to replace Kazmir with Hart taking over for Crawford. The Giants will also have to make a decision on where they want to go Bumgarner and Sanchez will probably be on the move to get some more offense on that team. A Hardy to the Giants trade makes a lot of sense.

 

With possible free agents of Damon, Abreu, Matsui (he is really only a DH), Dye, and others in the OF the Brewers maybe able to pick one of those players up at a smallish contract and improve the offense a little bit. I believe that Kendall will not be back next year he just is not producing enough offensively and his defense has declined this year which should have been expected. There are holes but this offseason looks to be more of a perfect storm than last years. The Brewers could get lucky in the starting pitching department and sign someone like Bedard or Escobar to a short term contract. With both of those players being injured this year those two could be perfect buy low candidates for the Brewers to bridge the gap.

 

I just don't see the last offseason being a disaster when taking into account everything that has happened this year. Even if Melvin traded Hardy or Hart for pitching you would still have Burns, Dillard, McClung, and Villanueva in the starting rotation because of the injuries that happened. I don't think there would be any real big difference in the record if Hardy or Hart would have been traded this last offseason.

[PeaveyFury]

Re-signing Sabathia certainly means no Hoffman, probably no Cam, and possibly no Coffey. It really just would have shifted the problem with the 09 Brewers from the rotation back to the bullpen, their major weakness in 07 and 08, as well as add more issues with an already inconsistent lineup.

[nate82]

Re-signing Sabathia certainly means no Hoffman, probably no Cam, and possibly no Coffey. It really just would have shifted the problem with the 09 Brewers from the rotation back to the bullpen, their major weakness in 07 and 08, as well as add more issues with an already inconsistent lineup.

Any injuries and that team would have been out of it especially if it hit the bullpen.

[bklynbrewcrew]

When you go into a season with a rotation consisting of Gallardo who threw 30 or so innings the year before as your number one starter, an inconsistent Parra as the number 2 and Bush, Suppan, and Looper as the other starters you are just setting yourself up for failure. Melvin needs to get over his plan to fill his rotations with soft toss fillers with no upside like Suppan and Looper. I for one said this team would not contend with this rotation. Counting on Suppan and Looper was foolish and Melvin should have seen the problems this rotation would cause.

 

If Matt Joyce was enough to acquire Edwin Jackson then Hart definitely was a possibility for Jackson. Part of a GMs job is to know when to sell high on players and Melvin has rarely done that. A decision on Hardy/Escobar needed to be made and Hart was an obvious sell high candidate as well. It was obvious that this rotation would be mediocre at best and Melvin has to take the blame for that. Other than acquiring CC for half a year when has Melvin shown that he can put together a better than average rotation. His teams in Texas were very similar to his owns in Milwaukee; a very solid lineup but starting rotations featuring a bunch of soft tossers with little upside. Melvin really needs to do better next offseason or 2010 will be much like 2009. I really hope that Melvin aims higher than the likes of Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn and Brian Bannisters of the world this upcoming offseason.

[tigerbrew]

What if Sabathia instead of signing with the Yankees signed with Milwaukee. Would the season be any different? Short answer no.

To me, the short answer is Yes.

 

Having the CC and Yo combo in the rotation would be huge, probably a bigger positive net effect than the Braun and Prince combo in offense.

 

DM and MA had said the pursued of CC was a special case, so signing CC doesn't mean losing Coffey (2009 salary only $800K) or Cameron. Signing CC would mean no Looper and probably no Hoffman, and that's fine with me. And even if having CC meant no Cameron and Hoffman, it would still be a better for the Brewers.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

They seemed to indicate that CC would have an additional revenue impact. It's tough to see them selling more tickets than they already had, but maybe they could have raised the prices a little and gotten away with it. The Fox deal was also up and there could have been a merchandise bump. Maybe that helps bump the overall payroll up $5-10mm allowing them to make a couple of (but not all) additional moves.

 

That being said, I still think they are just marginally better than where they are now.

[nate82]

If Matt Joyce was enough to acquire Edwin Jackson then Hart definitely was a possibility for Jackson. Part of a GMs job is to know when to sell high on players and Melvin has rarely done that. A decision on Hardy/Escobar needed to be made and Hart was an obvious sell high candidate as well.

Selling high on what with Hart? Have you forgotten how bad Hart was playing in the second half of last season?

 

If you had forgotten

By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pre All-Star	357	48	103	26	3	15	58	17	4	66	13	3	.289	.327	.504	.831
Post All-Star	255	28	61	19	3	5	33	10	1	43	10	4	.239	.263	.396	.659

The only time to sell Hart high was after his 2007 season. 2008 was definitely not a time to sell high with Hart especially with his bad 2nd half. It definitely would have had taken more than Hart to get Jackson. The Brewers wouldn't have been selling high on Hart at all in the offseason.

[PeaveyFury]

DM and MA had said the pursued of CC was a special case

 

I believe that was in regards to CC's own salary, not the overall payroll. Meaning, if they gave him 20 million, they'd have to shave 10 million off somewhere else. I'd have been stunned if they kept Cameron after signing CC to 20 million+ per year.

[Jay Zahn]

When you go into a season with a rotation consisting of Gallardo who threw 30 or so innings the year before as your number one starter, an inconsistent Parra as the number 2 and Bush, Suppan, and Looper as the other starters you are just setting yourself up for failure. Melvin needs to get over his plan to fill his rotations with soft toss fillers with no upside like Suppan and Looper. I for one said this team would not contend with this rotation. Counting on Suppan and Looper was foolish and Melvin should have seen the problems this rotation would cause.

 

If Matt Joyce was enough to acquire Edwin Jackson then Hart definitely was a possibility for Jackson. Part of a GMs job is to know when to sell high on players and Melvin has rarely done that. A decision on Hardy/Escobar needed to be made and Hart was an obvious sell high candidate as well. It was obvious that this rotation would be mediocre at best and Melvin has to take the blame for that. Other than acquiring CC for half a year when has Melvin shown that he can put together a better than average rotation. His teams in Texas were very similar to his owns in Milwaukee; a very solid lineup but starting rotations featuring a bunch of soft tossers with little upside. Melvin really needs to do better next offseason or 2010 will be much like 2009. I really hope that Melvin aims higher than the likes of Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn and Brian Bannisters of the world this upcoming offseason.

There is no "plan" to rely on "soft tossers" and Melvin has never had one. When Melvin was with Texas he traded for Aaron Sele, who was the high strikeout guy with Texas and had his best years there. He traded for CC. Unless you count trading away guys like Dempster and de la Rosa, who were years away from contributing.

 

For the last 20 years the Brewers have not produced much pitching talent from their farm system. This limits their options in building a staff. You can sign a hard throwing ace, of course, but you need to pay 20 million a year. Even the Grade A prospects are not often available for trade; you might need to settle for A- or B prospect. The Mariners got Randy Johnson, but it was for another stud in Langston. The Red Sox got Pedro for Pavano and Tony Armas, a hard thrower who never really developed. The Brewers had to go trade Sexson to get Capuano and de la Rosa in the first place. They had to trade Overbay to get Bush. Brewers never have any pitching talent they can actually trade, so they need to come up with extra position players to do so. LaPorta went to get CC. Maybe you think Escobar was ready at the beginning of the year. I'd disagree, but that's just an opinion anyway. There was no replacement for Hart, so you'd have to bring in an additional free agent or trade acquisition to take care of his spot if he'd gone for pitching.

 

With all the talk about "soft tossers", with the exception of Gallardo this staff underachieved its own expectations by a good margin. Maybe you can expect a continued decline by Suppan since he's 34. Maybe you can expect a decline by Looper too - who could say. The realistic alternative to Looper was Lowe, who's two years older than Looper and also a soft tosser, but is regardless having a much better season. I don't see a lot of precedent for Looper's HR rate almost doubling. Maybe you can anticipate a decline by Bush, whose best year was probably 2006 and whose rate stats have been declining in varying rates.

 

That doesn't explain Parra, a hard thrower, taking a big step backward instead of forward. It doesn't explain Villanueva's 5+ ERA and McClung's wasted season. Melvin and the minor league development guys can fairly be blamed for the minor league pitching cupboard being bare. But this staff still never projected to be anywhere near as bad as it's been.

[Invader3K]

I still think Sabathia would have saved some of the wear & tear we are seeing that has affected the bullpen currently.

 

It's all water under the bridge at this point. I would have loved to see Sabathia stay in Milwaukee, but I have to believe that a contract that big would have ended up crippling the Brewers long term.

[joepepsi]

There is no "plan" to rely on "soft tossers" and Melvin has never had one. When Melvin was with Texas he traded for Aaron Sele, who was the high strikeout guy with Texas and had his best years there. He traded for CC. Unless you count trading away guys like Dempster and de la Rosa, who were years away from contributing.

He also signed Sheets to a 4 year deal. I don't recall Benny being a "soft tosser".

 

This topic is so much better than the one about Melvin needing to get fired because in retrospect he didn't all the right things to get the Brewers into the playoffs. Great job nate82. Thank you.

[Postseason2006]

I do not see any difference between Cabrera and Cameron offensively. Melky also is a switch hitter. His road splits were better than his home stats besides homers last week.

 

Yes, he is not a gold glover in CF but having CC's production would've reduced the stress on the BP no doubt.

[RobertR]

I remember catching some flak around here for saying that I though Edwin Jackson would have been a good pickup, because he significantly outperformed his peripherals last year. Not to say I was right, I'm wrong plenty, but to point out that there weren't very many moves that were really obvious, except for possibly Trevor Hoffman. And, who knows, maybe in Miller Park with this coaching staff and teammates Jackson doesn't blossom like he has in Detroit.

 

I suppose that it's also fair to point out that while this rotation was always risky, this is even below expectations. The Brewers are basically at .500 even with everything that has gone wrong. If Bush doesn't get hurt and Parra was somewhat close to expectations in the first half, maybe they'd be several games over .500 and have been in a position to go out and get someone at the deadline. It wasn't inevitable that it turned out this bad. Yeah, it's not a total surprise either, but there existed some scenarios where the pitching staff exceeded expectations and the average expectation was probably better than this scenario.

 

FWIW, playoff odds reports at Baseball Prospectus have the Brewers at about 2%. That seems about right.

 

Robert

[tigerbrew]

I do not see any difference between Cabrera and Cameron offensively. Melky also is a switch hitter. His road splits were better than his home stats besides homers last week.

 

Yes, he is not a gold glover in CF but having CC's production would've reduced the stress on the BP no doubt.

Not to mention the big difference between Cabrera and Cameron financially. Cabrera cost $1.4M in 2009 and will be under Brewers control till 2011 relatively cheaply, while Cameron cost the Brewers $10M in 2009 alone.

 

As I had mentioned before, if having CC meant no Cameron and Hoffman, the Brewers would still be better off.

[Ennder]

I was ok with the idea of a Cabrera trade because I think he was underrated but lets be serious here, 90% of the fan base thought the idea of this trade was horrible because Melky was coming off of a miserable season. Most of the people posting in this thread are completely posting from a hindsight is 20/20 level and not really being honest with themselves.

[logan82]

Even when we were supposedly picking up a good part of Cameron's contract?

 

The premise of the thread was to look at things with hindsight.

 

Now lets say everything stays the same as the way that we know it Bush, Weeks, and Suppan all go down with injuries and miss time.