JJ Hardy optioned to AAA- Latest: Per McCalvy, JJ will be left at AAA and add another year before free agency

[sheethead]

Maybe its me, or just the culture fostered by this organization, but I don't necessarily qualify a good hitter by whether or not he can hit 20+ HRs.

[joepepsi]

I think of Escobar as an Edgar Renteria/Orlando Cabrera type. Until this season Hardy seemed like a Tejada/Ripken type. Ripken had some pretty mediocre years at the plate sprinkled throughout his career, so maybe that comp still holds.

[jhart05]

You can't really compare Hardy and Escobar as hitters, and say one is better than the other. They are completely different.

 

Escobar is not going to hit 20+ HRs a year, but he will probably steal 40 to 50 bases for you. And very well could develop into a leadoff hitter for this team. Why couldn't he?

 

If he can, then I would say he's a more valuable hitter (not nessessarily a better hitter) for this team, over just another 20+ HR guy with an OBP in the low .300's. Which they seem to have an abundance of those. Isn't that what a lot of people complain about anyway? Too many power hitters, not enough guys who get on base and can run? Who is to say at this point that Escobar can't add those things to this team? After leading off in the minors, I'm sure Escobar expects himself to eventually be able to do that in the majors.

[RightFieldCoder]

One problem is that if Escobar hits .210-.230, his OBP will still be bad.

 

I still throw my hat into the Escobar ring for simple business reasons. Cheap Escobar + Hardy trade > Escobar trade + Expensive Hardy. For the Yankees it might be a less than sign, but we need to save money where we can. If there was no Escobar, I would pull for bringing back Hardy next year. This is the Twins way we decided to emulate.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's committed 3 errors. Now maybe his range will compensate for that over time, but 3 errors give you -1.3 runs in value its hard to overcome that.

 

JJ Hardy committed 2 errors in 18 games in AAA.

I understand the rookie argument when it comes to hitting and pitching but not when it comes to fielding. A hitter has to adjust to better pitchers and for the most part ones he has rarely if ever seen before. Same goes with pitching. Other than improved field conditions fielding is no different from one level to the other. If the player can get to the ball and make the throw it makes little difference at all who hit the ball or who pitched it.

[mletto157]

True, but balls are hit harder and therefore come faster in the MLB than in the minors - with some stud minor league hitters as exceptions.

[Thurston Fluff]

Are they hit all that much harder or just hard more often?

[mletto157]

That would probably be a more accurate assesment. Though, I would imagine there are many more players in the MLB that will hit an extremely hard grounder or liner than in the minors as well.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that it's tough to dispute that Hardy is the second best shortstop the Brewers have ever had besides Yount. Due to his defense, I feel that even this year, Hardy was a huge upgrade to the days of hacks like Jose Valentin (terrible in the field), Jose Hernadez (terrible at the plate and the field) and Royce Clayton (terrible at the plate). The past two years, Hardy was a top 10 MLB shortstop on both offense and defense. That's why I have no idea why the Brewers killed his trade value. I would have left him in the lineup hoping that he went on one of his hot streaks. What was there to lose in doing so? The season was over anyway. I have no problem with Escobar, but it's obivious that he needs time to develop as a major league hitter. Next year he's going to have to hit a little bit, unless the Brewers can get some offense at the catcher position. You can't have three automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup.

[jhart05]

"That's why I have no idea why the Brewers killed his trade value."

 

He killed his own trade value by stinking it up at the plate. The Brewers may have salvaged some of it by adding on that extra year of service time.

[mletto157]

Eh, I don't think his trade value was killed as much as you think. For the same reason that McGehee's value didn't skyrocket this season, JJ's didn't plummet either. GM's are smart enough not to look at only one season (or partial season) of data to determine value.

[Funketown]

True, but balls are hit harder and therefore come faster in the MLB than in the minors - with some stud minor league hitters as exceptions.

Yeah, but there also seem to be more Johnny Estradas in the major leagues, so Escobar's got that working for him. That would be interesting to see how long it took the ball to get the the defenders in the minors compared to the MLB though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Eh, I don't think his trade value was killed as much as you think. For the same reason that McGehee's value didn't skyrocket this season, JJ's didn't plummet either. GM's are smart enough not to look at only one season (or partial season) of data to determine value.

This is an outstanding point. However, I do think good GMs will attempt to leverage this bad & most recent season against Hardy's value. But I also think that will just be a cloaked attempt to buy as low as possible. I sincerely doubt that any team in need of a SS will view Hardy's struggles this season with the gloom & doom & absolutism of some Brewers fans.

 

I also think you're right about McGehee, however I would add the wrinkle that McGehee has upped his value more than Hardy has damaged his. While I am always going to be one to be skeptical about 'overnight' success like Casey's, I really can't bring myself to say this season's a fluke for him. He appears to be a very polished hitter -- imo it's his lack of athleticism that holds him back. I hope for his sake his knee surgery goes well this offseason. He really can't afford to be even less mobile. He seems to be a good fielder on the balls he can get to, which at 3B is of course a plus.

[endaround]

The biggest blow to Hardy's value is more likely due to teh Rays moving Bartlett then anything Hardy did. I still could easily see Escobar being traded if the Brewers decide to make a push while Fielder is still under contract.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

endaround could be right. With 2 years left of JJ vs. 6 of Escobar...Alcides may have more value in the market. If the Brewers believe their window closes when Prince leaves, why not hang on to JJ? He projects as a better player over the next 2 seasons than Escobar and we might get an even better pitcher in return. JJ will cost more, but if he rebounds to 07/08 levels he'll be a bargain.

[logan82]

I think if they trade Escobar it would be because they sign Hardy to a 3 year deal or something like that. Giving Hardy a contract like that would mend some fences I think.

[endaround]

endaround could be right. With 2 years left of JJ vs. 6 of Escobar...Alcides may have more value in the market. If the Brewers believe their window closes when Prince leaves, why not hang on to JJ? He projects as a better player over the next 2 seasons than Escobar and we might get an even better pitcher in return. JJ will cost more, but if he rebounds to 07/08 levels he'll be a bargain.

 

Its not just value, its what will be offered. For example take Webb. The DBacks moving him means they are rebuilding and want prospects back not a player that won't be there for their next winning team. Hardy in general will bring back prospects while Escobar would bring back established talent.

[TheCrew07]

Hardy in general will bring back prospects while Escobar would bring back established talent.

I doubt that very much, prospects bring back prospects, not established talent. It takes multiple prospects to pull an established player, or has in the past.

 

edit. The reason Hardy would have brought prospects was the he was basically a rental. Now that they weaseled another year of FA I'm not sure what his return will be, but I doubt it's as high as it would have been prior to this season. A trade partner still has to take into account his horrible year at the plate, no one is going to pretend it didn't happen, it's just how much weight will it carry?

[endaround]

No prospects bring established players and vice versa. Prospect for prospect trades are rare because of the issues involved. They've become more prevalent but are still a small minority of trades. Trading established players for other established players does happen but only in general for average or below average players. The success cycle dictates getting major league talent on the roster at the same time so it makes little sense to fill one hole on the roster by creating another someplace else. Occasionally a team has enough depth to do it but that depth is almost never in starting pitching. The teams that trade starting pitchers tend to be teams ready to rebuild which means they have no use for Hardy.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think you guys are right for the most part, but our situation in Milwaukee might be different than almost all the other trades similar to the ones we are thinking. For the record, I'd prefer to keep Escobar. But if we traded him because we liked our other pretty young SS (Hardy) and wanted him longterm, we'd be seeking MLB talent where most teams would maybe be seeking a prospect or two. I think we can get MLB talent for Escobar, but it might be a #3 type of starter for instance as opposed to a pitcher a year and a half away that projects as a #2 starter. Most teams, doing a trade like this, take the prospect every time. Our unique situation might have us take the MLB ready #3 starter.

[Thurston Fluff]

The Podsednick/Lee trade was one major league player for another. There are plenty of reasons to trade veteran for veteran. While sometimes it does create a hole to fix another that is far from always the case. If a team feels it is in the midst of a window of opportunity and has depth at one spot and a hole in another they very well may demand a veteran in return for a veteran. All it takes is two teams who feel they are ready to compete and think they have to many of one type of player and not enough of another.

The Brewers appear to me to be in need of speed more than they are power so trading JJ and keeping Escobar seems to make more sense to me.

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers need to enter the offseason open minded. They need 2 starting pitchers, but have multiple avenues to acquire them. Hardy, Hart, or McGehee are the most obvious trading chips. Angel Salome could be used as a sweetener.

If the Brewers can find interesting arm for Hardy, great. If they can get interesting guys for Hart and McGehee, but don't get an interesting deal for Hardy, even better. We need a SS for next year, as Escobar doesn't look like much of a contributor yet.

[TheCrew07]

No multiple prospects are traded for a single quality MLB player, historically prospects have not pulled MLB talent by themselves unless they were highly thought of pitchers like a Kazmir, and that was still a horrible trade, there's no way both sides got equal value.

 

Sure you can acquire a Villy for a Franklin, but while Villy is a MLB pitcher, that's not the sort of deal thus team should be looking at this time, and it's not the sort of deal that works out very often. Not to mention Villy was pitching in A ball at the time of the trade.

 

Escobar is an excellent prospect, but he's not a power prospect, and power players/prospects bring back pitching in 1 to 1 type deals of similar talent. Garza/Young, Hamilton/Volquez, Joyce/Jackson... on a side note, what's happened to Young, how do you hit 26 HRs as a 19 year old between AA-AAA and not continue to get better?

[Never Outhustled]

on a side note, what's happened to Young, how do you hit 26 HRs as a 19 year old between AA-AAA and not continue to get better?

He physically looks like a shell of his former self. If I had to guess, He was juicing since HS.

 

The Twins got a terrible deal there. They would have been better off dealing Garza for Corey Hart, and so would we.

[DHonks]

Man JJ looks lost at the plate. We've seen this every year for stretches, though. But in the past, somehow he changed his approach midseason and started going to RF. JJ is still swinging the same way he was in April--with his head pulling off of everything.