Do you think the Brewers are still 'in it'?

[logan82]

I can give credit to anybody who predicted we would be around .500 because of injuries. Other than that I would say that some people underestimated the Brewers talent.

 

That was the problem with this team coming into the season -- even a few injuries/underproducers was going to be enough to derail them because of their lack of depth, weak rotation, and of course, already having to deal with Jason Kendall as an everyday black hole in the lineup

 

Of course every team has injuries and players under performing. We still have had almost the worst case scenario for injuries and under performing players this year. The only thing worse would have been something happening to Fielder, Gallardo, or Braun. It is more than just a few injuries and players under performing.

[brewmann04]

please Logan don't mention Yo Name we don't need to Jinx him.

I think most of us knew this Rotation was not much better than 500 even with a healthy Soup and Bush.

Melvin needs to find Quality 1,2,3 Pitchers not a bunch of #5 Starters.

[markedman5]

Klements Brats pretty much nailed it.

[ClubLevel]

If by the end of the month we're 10 games out or something like that, I really hope they don't use Yo much that last month. He's been worked pretty hard, especially lately with the 4-man rotation. No reason to take any chance with him.

[DougJones43]

Of course every team has injuries and players under performing. We still have had almost the worst case scenario for injuries and under performing players this year. The only thing worse would have been something happening to Fielder, Gallardo, or Braun. It is more than just a few injuries and players under performing.

Really? You think the Brewers have had much worse injury/underperformance problems than the average team? I don't. As you alluded to, arguably our five top hitters and position players entering the season (Fielder, Braun, Cameron, Hardy, and Hart) and two top projected pitchers (Gallardo and Parra) have stayed healthy all year. Weeks not being able to make it through a full season shouldn't have really shocked anyone. He's had lots of problems with his hands/wrists, and has never played in more than 130 games. Hoffman missed a month, but that also shouldn't be a total shock for somebody that is his age.

 

As far as underperforming players goes, I guess I really don't see it as worst case either. Fielder, Braun, and Cameron have performed around or above expected levels. Hart's OPS is higher than last year. Counsell and McGehee have gone way above and beyond any expected production. The bullpen was lights off for a long time before the crappy starting pitching bled over and began to wear on them. Kendall and Hall have sucked, but that was to be expected. That pretty much leaves Hardy. And it's not as though some of these performances came from nowhere. Pretty much everyone not named Sabathia, Sheets, Torres, and Branyan (under)performed at similar levels last year -- and NONE of those afore mentioned guys are with the team anymore.

 

So really, there was one significant injury (Weeks) and one significant underperformance (Hardy). Other than that, if you think Bush and Suppan missing time is a "worst case scenario," I think nothing could be further from the truth. Seems right in line with what other teams have to deal with in any given year, although in the Brewers case it was enough to send them down the tubes because they just aren't very good.

[bklynbrewcrew]

This team is flat out terrible and has been for months. Its embarrassing watching this team play anyone at this point. I will be shocked if this team finishes over .500.

[logan82]

As you alluded to, arguably our five top hitters and position players entering the season (Fielder, Braun, Cameron, Hardy, and Hart) and two top projected pitchers (Gallardo and Parra) have stayed healthy all year.

 

Hart is hurt and expected to miss a month.

 

So really, there was one significant injury (Weeks) and one significant underperformance (Hardy). Other than that, if you think Bush and Suppan missing time is a "worst case scenario," I think nothing could be further from the truth. Seems right in line with what other teams have to deal with in any given year, although in the Brewers case it was enough to send them down the tubes because they just aren't very good.

 

Parra has underperformed even very pessimistic projections. I would count Parra as a significat underperformance. The drop off from Parra and Bush to our 6th starter is huge. Who said anything about Suppan being hurt putting a big dent in our team? I said "almost worst case scenario," meaning things could be worse. Bush being hurt and Parra really pitching poorly hurt more than almost any other possible injury. Probably several wins at least. Weeks injury sucks but probably only hurt us a little bit. Hardy, same thing. Our offense is almost as good as last year.

[valpocrewsader]

Really? You think the Brewers have had much worse injury/underperformance problems than the average team? I don't.

So really, there was one significant injury (Weeks) and one significant underperformance (Hardy). Other than that, if you think Bush and Suppan missing time is a "worst case scenario," I think nothing could be further from the truth. Seems right in line with what other teams have to deal with in any given year, although in the Brewers case it was enough to send them down the tubes because they just aren't very good.

I gotta agree with you. I won't pretend to be an expert on the injuries of the 2009 season, but it seems like I'm constantly surprised to learn of injury situations around the league that lessen the excuse the Brewers have. I probably can't cite enough specific examples to back it up completely, but the Cubs seem to be an obvious example. Their best hitter misses significant time, Soto gets injured, Reed Johnson goes down, and Zambrano/Harden/Lilly all suffer trips to the DL. The Cardinals went through a stretch where all of their hitters (sans Pujols) were on the shelf -- they were sending out a lineup of nobodies. They acquire DeRosa and he almost immediately goes to the DL. The Angels went without Vlad for a long while and didn't have Santana for a good part of the season (and he's been ineffective since returning). The Dodgers have played half their games without Manny and also adjusted to not having Schmidt -- a major sunk investment -- as part of their plans.

 

These might not be good examples, someone else can probably do better, but these are the things I think about whenever the topic of injuries comes up for the Brewers.

[DougJones43]

Exactly. None of the Brewers "core" players got hurt this year. Yes, Parra has underperformed, but that's part of the problem with this team -- they were relying on somebody as unreliable and untested as Parra as the second best starter on the staff.

 

You're right though, valpo. The Cubs have had worse luck with injuries so far this year, but they're far better than the Brewers so they've been able to play decent ball and stay in the race with a +20 run differential, as opposed the Brewers who have sunk to -37 after tonights thrashing.

[logan82]

The Cubs were significantly better than us to begin with. They would have had to lose their top 3 starters for half the season and we would have had to be relatively injury free to pull even with them.

 

Exactly. None of the Brewers "core" players got hurt this year.

 

Three fifths of the players we really needed to stay health and perform didn't. I would argue that losing Bush for 2 months would be almost as bad as losing either Braun or Fielder. Offense is always easier to replace than pitching.

 

Yes, Parra has underperformed, but that's part of the problem with this team -- they were relying on somebody as unreliable and untested as Parra as the second best starter on the staff.

 

There was little reason to think Parra would put up an ERA worse than 4.25-4.5 this year. The was almost no reason to expect Parra to have an ERA north of 6. Our whole starting rotation has pitched worse than expected except for Yo. There was almost no reason to expect that either. If Parra pitches like expected and Bush doesn't get hurt, we are a mid 80's win team.

 

Edit: Nevermind about Suppan and Looper. They are performing within what should be expected. On the bad end, but not unexpectedly bad.

[danzig6767]

We had a very shaky rotation going into the season and zero depth in the upper minors. So once any of the starters got hurt, which should almost be expected in a 162 game schedule and/or a starter or two performed worse than you hoped for, there was nothing there rotation wise to turn to.

 

This is where the inability to develop young starting pitching and Melvin not being able to acquire young starting pitching has bit the team in the butt. The starting five pitchers for a major league team at the start of a season rarely go through a year without injuries and it's common for one of the starters or two to struggle enough so that the team has to look at using someone else. Thus, to make the playoffs, you usually have to have an option or two that can come and fill in, we don't. Guys like Mike Burns types aren't going to get it done if any injury hits or a starter performs poorly.

[brewmann04]

i think we all knew the lack of depth at the pitching rotation were going to hurt us and beside the fact none of our starters were that much better than 500 anyway.

[Ennder]

The Cubs had one of the riskiest rosters in baseball from an injury standpoint so I don't think comparing injuries with them is exactly fair. Other teams with major injury issues are mostly doing poorly as well, teams like the Mets.

 

I'm fine with my preseason prediction in general but I think I was being too generous with the rotation. Not because I think our starters are as bad as they have pitched this year but because I didn't account for the complete lack of depth properly. If we had some decent AAA arms I think the team is still doing fine but the complete lack of depth has just killed us.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

Our inability to develop young pitchers has hurt us in two ways. Not only have we had to overpay to fill the gaps, but we are stuck with these bad contracts now and it limits some of our ability to make changes in the future. One thing we have to remember also is that many prospects don't pan out. That is normal. I felt going into this year we were going to use this year to evaluate and see which players are worth long-term extensions and which guys will be moved in order to make room for the next round of position players. I think that is factoring into what we have done this year. Finally, we haven't done real well bringing outfielders to the majors either. Cain and Katin have some numbers that have me questioning whether they will pan out too.

[Invader3K]

Finally, we haven't done real well bringing outfielders to the majors either

 

How can you say that when Braun and Hart are both starting OFs and products of the Brewers system? Cain was set back with an injury in spring training, IIRC...and Katin was never projected as a stud prospect. He just got some attention at the beginning of this year because he was putting up some big numbers at a somewhat advanced age for a minor leaguer, which is somewhat typical.

[Fatter than Joey]

Not because I think our starters are as bad as they have pitched this year but because I didn't account for the complete lack of depth properly.

 

In your defense, the lack of depth really has been driven home in a major way this season. I know I was concerned about it, but I didn't see it getting this out of hand.

 

If we had some decent AAA arms I think the team is still doing fine but the complete lack of depth has just killed us.

 

Agreed -- and that is exactly what makes me nervous about 2010. If we had a couple of AAA studs we threw into the rotation this year, even if they struggled in 2009, you could still point to/hope for improvements in 2010.

 

How can you say that when Braun and Hart are both starting OFs and products of the Brewers system?

 

TGJ and Nelson Cruz are also starters as well.

[MJLiverock]

I can't discount the Brewers record or predictions of a .500 or sub .500 record because of injuries or underpeformance. Many of those predictions were based on assuming the performance we got from guys like Parra, Hart, Kendall, Suppan, Looper, and even Gallardo and the bullpen. I am not trying to toot my own horn but I wasn't the only one skeptical of Parra suddenly becoming a #2 or even a solid #3 type pitcher for 175+ innings. Gallardo wearing down and/or not matching Sheets/CC type numbers was very realistic, moresoe in my eyes than him stepping in and being a young Dwight Gooden, dominating guys in in first full year as a starter and coming off an injury. For many eyes there just isn't an underperformance, it is right where expected. For the predictors of 90+ wins, yeah there probably was some underperformance from the expectations needed to get to that win total but I say those predictions were too optimistic.

 

Even without Bush's injury the team would likely only be a couple games better off right now, its not like Bush is Roy Halladay. Injuries have hit all teams and do almost every year. The Brewer roster as constructed couldn't handle any injuries which is poor roster management mainly due to the dearth of pitching depth. Losing Weeks after he seemed to really be putting it together hurt but the play of McGehee, Lopez, and Counsell has been pretty good in replacement. Catching is a black hole and was expected to be by many, the pen wearing out was expected by many, third base being a problem, also no big surprise and Hart's poor start really not surprising either. Hardy's bad season is a surprise to most, but as I look back on his career I can't say I'm shocked, he is prone to long slumps.

[RobDeer 45]

We are but it's not looking good.

[Tbadder]

We aren't and it isn't looking good.

[sheethead]

At this point, 75 wins looks to be a chore for this team. They are done and done.

[DougJones43]

At this point, 75 wins looks to be a chore for this team. They are done and done.

Yeah. I might end up being embarrassed by my overly optimistic 79-win prediction.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Innings eaten up by Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia at this time last year are instead being eaten up by the likes of Villenueva, Looper, Mike Burns, and the rest of a taxed bullpen that would be average at best if well rested...it's no question an already thin pitching staff has suffered the cumulative effect of not having 2 starting pitchers capable of going the distance every time they take the ball (even if it led to Sheets' injury late last year, the innings he logged during the dog days of summer kept the bullpen from completely falling apart in 08)

 

The alarming thing about the Brewers going forward is that they have next to no pitching help within their organization that can be expected to contribute in the majors next season - the disparity between developing positional player and pitching prospects for the Brewers is crazy, especially when a small market team needs to put a premium on developing young pitching to keep payroll at a reasonable level.

 

Technically the Brewers are in it, but they've actually lost about 3-4 games of ground to the Cardinals while playing a steady diet of garbage (aside from their 1 series win against the Dodgers) pretty much since the all star break. Aside from how the Reds and Pirates are playing, I don't know if there's a worse team in the NL going right now than the Brewers. Without pitching help, which isn't coming, this team looks to be mailing it in already this season.

[jhart05]

I didn't think the Brewers were "in it" in February.

And, I still think that.

[logan82]

I am not trying to toot my own horn but I wasn't the only one skeptical of Parra suddenly becoming a #2 or even a solid #3 type pitcher for 175+ innings.

 

It really isn't about Parra becoming a #2 or #3. If he had just repeated his performance from 2008 or even been close to it we would be much better off. His ERA was 4.39 in 2008. Expecting him to have an ERA in the 4.5 range was reasonable. If anybody had told me that Suppan and Looper would out-pitch Parra and Bush, I would have said we were screwed.

[Tbadder]

Yeah, I'm totally mad at myself. I am so weak and pathetic. I didn't think they could play .500 ball this year, what with one average starter and one above average starter and three below average starters, but instead I stabbed my fellow "pessimists" in the back.