Do you think the Brewers are still 'in it'?

[joepepsi]

I don't think it takes a miracle to make up 6 games, just a sustained hot streak. That said, I don't see this team as having what it takes for any kind of hot streak. If the rotation woes continue the hitters will mail in the rest of the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

they have to go 30-21 the rest of the way, see both the Cards and Cubs slip up quite a bit, and hope the Astros don't get hot.

 

 

http://www.homevideos.com/freezeframes3/dumb144.jpeg

So you're telling me there's a chance!

 

 

My head says yes, my heart says no. I think Dave Bush's status will play a big role, and the latest news isn't good:

 

Right-hander Dave Bush might not return to the Milwaukee Brewers' starting rotation as soon as hoped.

 

After throwing breaking balls at close to maximum effort for the first time during this rehabilitation stint in a bullpen session Friday, Bush experienced some tightness in his forearm Saturday. Whether that sets him back was not certain.

 

"I wouldn't really call it a setback," said Bush, who already had one of those when his first rehabilitation stint was shut down after he experienced arm fatigue during a July 15 outing with Class AA Huntsville.

 

"It's just a little sore, a little tight. I threw breaking balls for the first time. Just like spring training, when you step it up a little, you get sore. I just want to knock out the soreness and make sure I'm OK before I go out and pitch anywhere."

 

There was hope that Bush would be ready to pitch on a minor-league assignment in the next few days, but he said that would depend on how he felt Sunday.

 

Asked if he thought Bush would be ready to pitch in a game soon, manager Ken Macha said, "I don't know. The disappointing part was that he went out on a rehab assignment in Appleton (with Class A Wisconsin) on July 10 and was fine. Since then, he has had an MRI and everything."

 

Then, referring to both Bush and Jeff Suppan (oblique strain), Macha said, "Progress with both those guys has been slow."

 

 

There's a tidbit from Melvin as well, and it sounds like he doesn't feel the Brewers are 'in it' enough to add a SP to take Burns's or Villy's spots in the rotation:

 

"We're expecting to get Bush and Suppan back," said Melvin. "We've gone over the list of pitchers (placed on waivers since the July 31 trade deadline). There's nobody we feel we'll pursue.

[RightFieldCoder]

Found it!

 

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/4416/yoststand.th.gif

[markedman5]

Has a team with a pitching staff that was 15th in ERA and last in HRS allowed and OPS against ever made the playoffs?

 

If so then we are still in it...........

 

We are a .500 team in name only. We have been outscored by 30 runs. Only Florida has been as lucky.

[wibadgers23]

Are we still in it? Well let's just say I'm looking forward to seeing our prospects like Escobar, Gamel, and Salome play some games in September. Even if we do get on a hot streak (which seems impossible at this time), St. Louis is going to be tough to catch anyway. They have an easy August and are just playing really well right now. We are 6.5 games back in the wildcard race. That would be our only shot, imo.

[NievesNoNO]

The Brewer fan in me says yes, the baseball fan in me says no. The Brewers haven't played "good baseball" for any extended period for a long time. So long, I really can't remember when. However, if they manage to trim the lead to about 3 games or so by the end of the month there's still hope as they play the Cards 9 times and Cubs 7. The opportunity will be there, but will the good Brewers show up?

[sheethead]

I'd put up a month's worth of paychecks that this team doesn't make the playoffs.

 

If I have this right, if you win you get to say you win, if you lose you lose your paychecks. That is how betting works now.

[bklynbrewcrew]

This team is more likely to lose 85 or more games than finish over .500.

[DougJones43]

Has a team with a pitching staff that was 15th in ERA and last in HRS allowed and OPS against ever made the playoffs?

 

If so then we are still in it........

This about sums it up. Really though, I wonder what the worst league-ranked ERA team to make the playoffs was in history. I have to assume that a team ranking last or next-to-last has never really come close to the playoffs. The saddest part is, the Brewers aren't even close to passing the next team upward on the ERA list. The Brewers are 15th with a 4.81 ERA, and the Padres are 14th with a 4.55 ERA. We also have the worst ERA by starters by a pretty decent margin over lowly Washington.

 

This team isn't going to sniff the playoffs this year, and probably not next year either barring an unforseen DRAMATIC improvement of the rotation.

[Ennder]

http://www.fangraphs.com/...ly-bad-playoff-rotations

 

Those are the worst rotations to ever make the playoffs though you have to do some research on your own as well. Of course for the Brewers to make the playoffs it assumes the pitching gets hot. While they are a bunch of 4.50-5.00 ERA pitchers they still have their months of 3.50-4.00 ERA when things bounce right, if things bounce right for a couple of them and Gallardo and Parra keep doing decently it is possible for the team to get hot. I still think the odds are under 10% but they certainly aren't 0%.

[Fatter than Joey]

The saddest part is, the Brewers aren't even close to passing the next team upward on the ERA list.

 

We have a 5.70 ERA since the AS break -- If that continues we will have a hard time reaching 80 wins.

 

and probably not next year either barring an unforseen DRAMATIC improvement of the rotation.

 

I agree, I don't feel that we have reasonable playoff aspirations at this point in 2010 either.

[DougJones43]

If that continues we will have a hard time reaching 80 wins.

Speaking of which, where is that preseason prediction thread? I can't find it. I doubt many people guessed the team would potentially finish with under 80 wins, although I suspect FTJ and myself may have...

[Fatter than Joey]

although I suspect FTJ and myself may have...

 

I would have predicted 63 wins probably http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I seem to recall that there were a substantial amount of "doubters" of the pitching staff -- and that unbridled optimism was held in check for the most part.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I said 85-77 and playoffs depended on the strength of the division.

 

We're still in it. Much stranger things have happened in baseball.

[joepepsi]

I seem to recall that there were a substantial amount of "doubters" of the pitching staff -- and that unbridled optimism was held in check for the most part.

I was embarrassingly optimistic. For the first two months I looked like a genius!

[DatHoser]

DougJones43 - ask and you shall receive.

 

optimism at its finest

[Ennder]

If you had told me Parra would completely fall apart, Bush would miss half the season, Weeks would miss most of the season and Hardy would completely disappear all year I'd probably have said like 80 wins or so instead of the first 86 guess. That is what makes them predictions, you never know when a team is going to underproduce expectations.

[trwi7]

Wow, DougJones completely nailed the injuries in that thread.

[brewmann04]

This team does not have the Ability to put a major winning Streak together, They have not done it most of the Year what makes anyone think that will change. I still have to say we luck to be 500 at the end of the season

[Ennder]

This team is as good as the Nats and they just won 8. You are completely out of reality with how streaky baseball is if you are going to believe that we are completely incapable of a big winning streak. Any team in baseball can play over .500 for a month, any somewhat decent team can play well over .500 for a single month. It isn't likely but it happens every year for a couple teams.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I agree Ennder. Of course everyone will say "this team has no shot of blah blah blah" right now. If they win 3 in a row that tune will change quickly.

 

I don't think they're going anywhere. But it wouldn't surprise me, and like I said, much stranger things have happened.

[Fatter than Joey]

If they win 3 in a row that tune will change quickly.

 

My tune will become "About damn time"

[DougJones43]

If you had told me Parra would completely fall apart, Bush would miss half the season, Weeks would miss most of the season and Hardy would completely disappear all year I'd probably have said like 80 wins or so instead of the first 86 guess.

Every team is going to have injuries. That was the problem with this team coming into the season -- even a few injuries/underproducers was going to be enough to derail them because of their lack of depth, weak rotation, and of course, already having to deal with Jason Kendall as an everyday black hole in the lineup.

 

You also thought it was laughable that anybody had dared to say the Astros were as good as the mighty Brewers. Doesn't really seem so laughable anymore.

[Oldcity]

PECOTA has the odds at 2.67% entering tonight's games. That sounds about right to me.

[brewmann04]

Well the Brewers have all the Looks on Continuing their Streak ( Losing) That Is.

I don't care how strange Baseball is this team before going on a winning Streak should first worry about Winning a Series.

This team has shown not a bit of promise going on a major winning Streak and with guys like Burns and Villy in the Rotation there will be not Many long Winning Streaks. and add the Sporatic Offense and you have all the Making for a 500 team at best. I will be gladly admit that i was wrong if the Brewers go on their Big Role like some Believe.