Smoltz DFA'd

[cwolf2012]

Why would he have to be a reliever? We have Carlos Villanueva and *insert name here* in the rotation right now.

 

If we sign Smoltz, it needs to be as a SP, at least to start.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm just not sold on Smoltz being an effective starter anymore. He has looked like Suppan this season, and iirc Soup has had negative value (in terms of WAR) to this point.

[cwolf2012]

I'm just not sold on Smoltz being an effective starter anymore. He has looked like Suppan this season, and iirc Soup has had negative value (in terms of WAR) to this point.

For what the data I've presented is worth, I disagree with you on this. He strikes out more people and walks less. If you believe the double career HR/FB ratio, his LOB% of 57%, and his .390 BABIP against are legit, then yes, he is bad. If not, he's still a very legitimate starter.

[sheethead]

With a 1.7 WHIP and 8 HRs given up in 40 innings this year, along with his decrease in velocity and inability to get left-handed hitters out, Smoltz is no better than a DiFelice in the pen at this point.

[cwolf2012]

You don't think any of that could be small sample size related?

[sheethead]

Sure it could be, but so could:

FIP and xFIP totals for this season:

 

Smoltz: 4.96 - 4.36

 

which was your argument for him.

[cwolf2012]

Did you notice who I matched those totals with? The only starter in our rotation now with better peripherals is Gallardo, and Parra is about equivalent. For 150k and star power, he's absolutely worth it.

 

EDIT: If he continued to pitch exactly the same with the exact same results, his FIP and xFIP would remain the same. They are adjusted statistics. Like I said, if you believe that he is a .390 BABIP pitcher, who leaves only 57% of runners on base (league average is around 70-75% I believe), and is twice as bad at keeping flyballs in the park than his entire career before this, then yes, you are right and he is done. I don't believe that he is any of those things, though.

[sheethead]

xFIP is experimental and FIP is flawed (which is why xFIP has been invented). Neither are measuring results, and both rely on constants. If 40 IP of John Smoltz this year has not led you to conclude he has nothing left (for this year anyway), then I would safely assume nothing will.

 

Edit: I take xFIP and FIP as decent barometers for players in their prime and with constant variables. I don't feel either are valuable for extremely young or extremely old players with large swings in constants. I wouldn't use this stat to compare a 40+ year-old coming off season ending surgury to a third year major leaguer entering his prime. Its not fair to either. And I saw Smoltz pitch 4 of his 8 games this year. He looks done, mentally and physically.

[Invader3K]

If his name was Joe Schlubansky and he was pitching like this at his age, no one would give him a second look. He's just living off his name at this point.

[cwolf2012]

If Joe Schlubansky posted a 3.11 ERA the year before at age 41 before getting hurt, I'm pretty sure he would get some attention.

[JJHardy7]

I agree with the posts for and against signing him. I think a lot of good points have been brought up. I do think though for how cheap he'd be I'd at least look into it. I do believe that Smoltz himself knows if he's done or not...maybe he just wouldn't accept a deal with the Brewers. I'd at least look into if I'm DM. I think Smoltz should've never left the NL.

[TooLiveBrew]

For what the data I've presented is worth, I disagree with you on this. He strikes out more people and walks less. If you believe the double career HR/FB ratio, his LOB% of 57%, and his .390 BABIP against are legit, then yes, he is bad. If not, he's still a very legitimate starter.

I respect that disagreement, and keeping the small sample in mind is very relevant. And you know I definitely trust stats to a great extent. I've just been struck by how bad Smoltz has not only fared, but looked as well. I haven't watched him pitch very much this year, but the few instances I have seen him the only comparison that's popped into my head in terms of stuff/command/etc. is Jeff Suppan. I guess sheethead sums up my thoughts pretty well, and includes some knowledge about FIP & xFIP I don't have.

[endaround]

If Smoltz was done we see some hug drop in velocity and K rate which just isn't there. He might not be able to make it through a full game but he can still pitch.

[TooLiveBrew]

His fastball sure didn't seem like it was averaging 91 in his last start, but that's about all I can add there. I don't know where to look to find velocity data by start... I can only find the FanGraphs data which doesn't go by start.

 

Interesting quotes from BOS pitching coach Jon Farrell & manager Terry Francona that match up with your take, though, end:

 

"At this point, [skipping Smoltz's next start isn't] even being considered," said Farrell. "If there was a drop-off physically just through either naked eye or what velocities are telling us, that would be a different situation. But that's not the case. You look at the amount of swing-and-miss he's able to generate, yet because of the consistency of command, he's frustrated." Smoltz' WHIP (1.53) and ERA (7.04) don't warrant a spot in your fantasy lineup, but Francona sounds like he'll be sticking by the pitcher who's allowing batters to hit .318 off him. "This guy it's going to work, I really believe that," Francona said. "The results certainly haven't been what we've wanted so far, but I think he's going to be just fine. His career's not over, I don't think we look at it like that. He's worked hard to get back and he's a member of our club now. As results get better, I'm sure he'll feel better. I think he's frustrated."

 

However, these quotes were from July 26th... and of course Smoltz was DFA'd shortly thereafter. So I guess if these guys felt so strongly about him, it makes me wonder why he was DFA'd. (Found the quotes at Smoltz's FanGraphs page, which gives no source)

[Ennder]

Hoffman was done last year and his jump in HR/FB showed that he just didn't have anything left. How is that working out this year? A jump in HR% is rarely an indication of anything unless it comes with a spike in FB% as well.

 

The WHIP of course is concerning.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess I'd like to see the pitch f/x data from Smoltz's most recent start (the shelling @ NYY). I will eagerly admit that human memory is faulty, and mine is no exception, but I don't remember him touching 90 at all during that start. Maybe he's dealing with an injury, maybe it was one really bad start, who knows.

[sheethead]

Hoffman was done last year...

I don't understand where this is coming from. Is this your opinion, and is it based on his 3.77 ERA / 1.04 WHIP in 45.1 IP? Or is it based on how bad the Padres were? Or was it his 5.11 K/BB ratio? I am looking for the indications that he was done, and I don't see them.

[Ennder]

Everyone was saying that preseason because of the big jump in HR% last year. Even reading sites like BPro you find them comparing pitchers to Hoffman as an example of someone who 'lost his stuff' and suddenly started giving up a lot of HR, even though it was a 1 year fluke. A spike in HR/FB% is not a reason to be down on a player, it is why I dislike FIP so much btw since it corrects for other things but ignores HR/FB.

[sheethead]

OK, fair enough. I hadn't read any of those viewpoints coming into the season. Its obvious he is toward the end of a great career, but I didn't see the dramatic falloff. I too do not look much into served HRs as an indicator, unless it is Braden Looper or Jeff Suppan.

[cwolf2012]

I like xFIP better than FIP since it's adjusted for league average HR/FB rates.

[TooLiveBrew]

From Ken Rosenthal: Smoltz refuses move to minors

 

John Smoltz's brief career with the Red Sox is over. Smoltz has refused the option of an assignment to the minor leagues, leaving the Red Sox with the option of either trading him or releasing him.

A trade is possible because Smoltz has cleared waivers, and the Dodgers are among the teams showing interest. But any deal would require a significant financial component due to the incentives in Smoltz's contract.

Smoltz, 42, receives about $35,000 for each day he is on the active roster and other appearance-based bonuses. He also receives a $500,000 bonus if he is on the active roster and not the disabled list on the last day of the season and a $500,000 bonus if he is traded.

If Boston releases Smoltz, the Red Sox will be obligated to pay the remainder of his one-year, $5.5 million contract he signed in the offseason. If Smoltz signs with another team, Boston would receive an off-set of the pro-rated minimum salary. Under that scenario, Smoltz's new team would not have to pay him any bonus money, as the bonuses are negated once a player is released.

Boston designated Smoltz for assignment on Friday after the righty gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings in last Thursday's loss to the Yankees. In eight starts this year, Smoltz is 2-5 with an 8.33 ERA.

"Pretty humbled right now, the way things have gone," Smoltz said Thursday night, after the Yankees chased him in the fourth inning of a 13-6 romp. "Time may not be on my side if this continues.