Next Power 50 in Mid-Autumn

[Mass Haas]

colbyjack, one quibble --

 

We all know it's Commander Cody, not Captain Cody!

 

Eric Farris is having a wonderful season -- but he'll be 24 when his AA season starts in 2010, has never proven (or been asked) to play anything but second base, has only 14 doubles this season (how with his speed?), and only walks about once every 16 AB's.

 

For the record, I dropped Brewer, Haydel, and Dykstra from my own P50 this month, but that didn't mean I escalated Farris (placed him at 43).

[colbyjack]

Man, I give you Escobar props and you still go quibbling http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[pogokat]

Johnbriggs---

 

Your list of mlb player sis neat...now do a list of guys who stole bases like that at 23 in High A ball...i' bet you'll find that hundreds of guys have done that without having any kind of major league career...i moved him up my list, but he's only got one skill and he's actually below average at at least 2.

 

he's an ok prospect...but he doesn't have the potential to break out like guys like Brewer

[wibadgers23]

Thanks to everybody who put in the hard work to get this done. I was a little bit surprised to see Escobar and Gamel flip-flopped, but I can't disagree with it. It's really refreshing to see so many pitchers in the top 20. My only complaints would be Arnett and Green being a couple spots too high and Scarpetta being a couple spots too low, IMO. Other than that, it looks great. Thanks again.

[TheCrew07]

Ha! You Bowman haters you!

 

Excellent work as always gentlemen.

 

Scarpetta has had 2 excellent games in his last 10, 0BB and 9Ks, and 0BB and 10Ks.... the problem is consistently as he'll walk 4 or 5 out of nowhere sometimes. Once he solves that part of his game, he'll have helium, I have no doubt. He should be rated behind Peralta as long Peralta is a SP, Peralta's stuff is just better, so he has more upside. It doesn't mean Peralta will be a better pitcher than Scarpetta, just that a pitcher who's consistently in the mid 90s has more upside than a pitcher who works in the low 90s. Personally I'm not huge on slider pitchers, they have TJ written all over them, I actually prefer Scarpetta's repertoire to Peralta's, but I agree with the staffers on both player's relative rankings... and really, what's 5 spots on a list between A ball pitchers?

[LouisEly]

"Maybe we got a little too excited a little quickly by the pre-draft workout reports"

 

That's my only gripe with the editors - they place a little too much value in draft picks. I realize it is their opinion, however I've seen way too many Dave Krynzel's, Dane Artman's, Bill Scott's (I realize I may get a strike just for including him in this list), Jon Steitz's, Tom Wilhelmson's, Josh Murray's, Khalid Ballouli's (strike two), Lou Palmisano's, and Charlie Fermaint's (I don't think EDR is an editor otherwise I'd be gone) and other guys in rookie ball they get way too excited over. Nowhere to be found are Effrain Nieves and Jose Garcia, and we're darned close to adding Jeffress, Brewer, and Cody Adams to that list too (Darren Ford still hasn't gotten out of A-ball in the Giants system). I can understand having Davis and Heckathorn in the teens, and the 2nd rounders in the 30's, but not some of the other picks at the expense of bumping a Donovan Hand or even a Michael Bowman UNTIL they start producing. I realize that some of those guys slipped in the draft due to "signability" and they paid them more than "slot value" and that, however it's that "potential vs. production" thing, and I tend to gravitate towards the old Casey Stengel line of, "'Potential' is a French word - it means you're not worth a (darn) yet."

 

Good call on Lasker though - he is one that I missed that I should have included (in the 40's).

[Mike]

"Maybe we got a little too excited a little quickly by the pre-draft workout reports"

I agree with Louis that a little too much stock is placed in high draft picks as I have mentioned before (Fredrickson and Dykstra from 2008) to name two. Fortunately, the staff after they see their performances drop, adjust accordingly, so I have no heartburn with the Kentrail Davis' of the world placed so high...but we shall see.

 

After all this is subjective. Thanks for the extra work to the staff.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think part of what the BF staff (rightfully) keeps in mind is why a player was drafted highly. I would imagine P50 rankings have a lot to do with projectability, and obviously the draft/draft spot does too.

[Mike]

Oh, BTW, he is the 6th leading hitter in the FSL through tonight. Guys do develop and if this continues into AA next year, some tunes will have to change. He doesn't have the same "Potential" as Brewer, but his numbers are sure better. Production over Potential at some point.

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=l_bat&lid=123

[TooLiveBrew]

"6th leading hitter" = batting average? I don't want to just crap on a guy, but I don't know why I should be too excited about a 23-yo in high A ball that hasn't shown an ability to hit for power, or good plate discipline. His defense might be the deciding factor, but as a batter he isn't too exciting.

[TheCrew07]

It doesn't make sense to bet against a prospect because we should want them all to succeed, but my hunch is that his OPS will continue to fall and his SLG will be right around his OBP which is basically utility infielder territory. He just doesn't hit well enough regardless of average to be an everyday player with Weeks and Lawrie in the system.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think you just said what I was trying to say in a much better way, Crew... esp. this part:

 

It doesn't make sense to bet against a prospect because we should want them all to succeed, but my hunch is that [Farris's] OPS will continue to fall and his SLG will be right around his OBP which is basically utility infielder territory.

[PrimeTime955]

No Michael Fiers? .84 era so far in his first 32 professional innings. The Brewers have already promoted him twice. 44/4 k/bb ratio. Something seems fishy to me.

[pogokat]

Fiers is 8 months OLDER than Yovani Gallardo

 

trust me, I thought about adding him...but i need to see him pitch more than 11 innings above rookie ball before i rank him over younger guys with higher potential or older guys with good production/experience level

[LouisEly]

Fiers is 8 months OLDER than Yovani Gallardo

Dan Merklinger is 3 months older than Gallardo and Amaury Rivas is two months older, but both of them cracked the list. Aguilar is a year older. All three of them are pitching in a pitcher-friendly stadium in Brevard. I'm not saying that Fiers should be ranked ahead of them, but if they're on the list in the mid-20's to mid-30's, then there's no reason Fiers shouldn't be in the 40's.

 

before i rank him over younger guys with higher potential or older guys with good production/experience level

 

So why is Krestalude on the list but Hand isn't? I hate to burst people's bubbles, but Krestalude has given up 68 H and 23 BB in 60 IP striking out only 43 in rookie ball. I get that he's 20, but to me that isn't very impressive and doesn't rank higher than what a 23-year-old Donovan Hand has done in AA this year - Hand has a lower H:IP ratio three levels higher and fewer walks in 98 innings than Krestalude has in 60 innings. Hand put up just as good of numbers in Brevard last year as Merklinger and Rivas at the same age, if not a few months younger. Hand's omission is a head-scratcher.

[And That]

Dan Merklinger is 3 months older than Gallardo and Amaury Rivas is two months older, but both of them cracked the list.

Merklinger and Rivas both throw harder, start, and are younger.

[colbyjack]

Every time I see a new player brought up, including Michael Fiers, Mike Brownstein and Donovan Hand, I wonder where the supporters are for Casey Baron and Brandon Ritchie. This team actually has had some lucky developing a lefty specialist that didn't make it to Milwaukee until he no longer was eligible to be considered a prospect on the P50. Even if they have only one such player to point to, it appears as though they're doing the same with these two men (Baron's numbers in particular are silly against LH hitters at the AA level).

 

I had a hard time keeping them off my list. Fiers was in consideration as well.

 

But so was Blake Billings, who in my mind is more of a prospect than any of these other players players. Daniel Meadows and Michael Bowman squeezed in at the end of my list as my own favorite players that are borderline prospects.

 

And keep in mind it is a top prospect list. That is why newly drafted players, particularly the marquee ones, are placed so aggressively at times. This isn't a top list of the players putting up the most impressive statistics at the highest level. I remember a similar amount of people making arguments for Steve Sollmann, Tony Festa, and even Mike McClendon, who is still in the system, but you know what, none of these guys are (or were) legitimate prospects, and where has the support for McClendon gone?

 

This is all in my humble opinion, but it seems as though most of the guys that are being brought up are the players that someone just happens to have a soft spot for. Yes, we have all noticed how impressive Michael Fiers has been, Donovan Hand has been a good organizational arm that has moved quickly and continues to pitch effectively (although since some stats are being thrown out, he has given up more hits than innings pitched and has struck out a batter every other inning, not exactly a good sign of things to come, especially in a pitching-friendly league), and Mike Brownstein is likely going to be filling in at 2B or 3B in the middle levels of the system for a year or two. Yes, those players have value, and yes, those players could get a cup of coffee some day, but having followed the minor league system for as long as I have, I know a lot better than to place a relatively old player in his league with marginal tools and/or stuff on my top prospect list even if the numbers are hard to ignore.

 

And Krestalude's stats don't speak to his potential. He is more of a prospect than Hand, or Fiers, and one Helena observer has spoken about his promise on this forum due to first-hand observations.

 

For the record, Farris is not one of those players to me, as he was 32 on my own list, and IMO definitely has tools that will help carry him towards the big leagues. I agree that his OBP and SLG numbers don't exactly predict long-term success, but his speed and defense will help carry him even if he's light with the bat.

[TheCrew07]

Funny you mention Ritchie, he's one of my bullpen sleepers. He's not your typical crafty lefty which is what I would peg Meadows as after having seen them both pitch in person multiple times. Ritchie works in the low 90s but hasn't put up the eye popping numbers BB and K wise that other relief prospects have this season or in the past, but he's definitely someone I'm intrigued by. I believe I mentioned in one of my T-Rat game summaries that I was surprised by how hard he threw. He could be a good middle reliever down the road though, outside of his shiny ERA, I thought his stuff was better than his peripherals would suggest as even with all the BBs he still has a very decent WHIP.

 

My Brownstein pimping is a reflection of me tuning in most of Helena's games since the season started, he always seems to do something big when I'm listening... a diving catch, great defensive play, timely hit or base steal... i get the feeling he's another one of those glue type players like a Sanchez who I came to really like watching him play for WI this season. I also really enjoyed his audio interview with Steve that I didn't link due a computer issue capturing the audio that day, as well as his post draft interview linked in the draft forum, he just strikes me as a very likable young man and I've found it easy to root for him. I love his versatility and willingness to do whatever is asked of him, I've already posted he's likely a utility player at best, it's not like I suggested he's a top 20 player. I don't recall mentioning he should be on the p50 at all, just that I personally liked him more than Farris, which really isn't saying much as I pointed out there are an easy 30 players in the system I like more than Farris.

[LouisEly]

Merklinger and Rivas both throw harder, start, and are younger.

Wooten doesn't start, doesn't throw hard, and is older than Gallardo. He's on the list. And when we are talking about "older", let's talk about at least a year, not just a couple of months.

 

The reason given for not including Fiers was age, not that he doesn't start or throw hard. If that is the reason then state that, not just age.

[pogokat]

four different people make the list---Toby told you why he didn't list him---i was the one who said age and experience...the guy dominated rookie ball at 24...i need to see more...

 

if he has similar stats in huntsville over a large number of innings next year, he will fly up the list, like wooten and axford have...

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I enjoy making up my own list prior to the P50 coming out then seeing how I do compared to the list. I'm usually pretty close but there are always exceptions (I had Odorizzi in the top ten). However, it seems strange to me to argue about who should be in the 40-50 range. You could shuffle anyone from 40-70 in any order and make a case for it. I have a hard enough time doing a top 25. I don't even attempt ranking above that.

[And That]

Like pogo, I really don't get too excited about relievers until they hit AA - it's too easy to fool A-ball hitters with junk and get away with imprecise command when you only have to go an inning or two at a time. That's not to say all relievers don't have legit MLB tools - in Wisconsin for instance, Ritchie, Lambertus and Tyson all have abilites that project to the major league level. It's just, relievers are so tough to get a read on because they only see any batter once a game (as opposed to 2-3+ times for a starter), and their overall innings are limited.

 

Louis, just so you know, I did put Fiers on my list, and I think I was the only one of the four to do so. But like ClosetBrewerFan noted - once you get past 30 or so, the differences between guys really blur. Relievers have to work harder than anyone else to get themselves out of that blur.

[Mike]

Well I have stated my case for him. A least the BF staff recognizes it and have moved him to 43 versus Brewers' 41 ranking. Eric up 2 and Brent down 1 from the last ranking.

 

For the record. I hear the low .OBP argument, but don't forget 60 SB's if you count them each as one for TB's raises his .SLG to .511 for an .OPS of .847

 

Pretty good for a 2B.

[pogokat]

but his stolen bases don't drive in runs, and you didn't subtract his cs from avg/obp/slg

[Mike]

but his stolen bases don't drive in runs, and you didn't subtract his cs from avg/obp/slg

Don't forget doubles or any other hit except a HR do not necessarily drive in a run. Therefore, I will subtract his 5 CS's and will double that to 10 because it erases his single which gave him the chance to steal (let's assume the attempted SB's are all of 2B, otherwise one could argue his TB's should drop even more). Now His 151 TB's are 201 instead of the 211 I argued earlier. SLG becomes .487 instead of .511 as argued (this now accounts for the CS's and the lost singles)

 

So... .OBP .336+.SLG .487 = .823 .OPS

 

Still pretty good. I don't care about XBH for a 2 hitter or 8 hitter which he is.