Next Power 50 in Mid-Autumn

[colbyjack]

My problem in general with the Power 50 is the high ranking of guys' just on where they were drafted and/or how athletic they are. How does Arnett deserve to be as high as he was placed? One has to be more than athletic or more than throw 95 mph to make it to the Bigs. Look at Fredrickson for example. I saw him @USF and he couldn't throw strikes. MLB people think he they can teach a guy to throw strikes. Well, in two years the Brewers have not been sucessful in teaching Evan to throw strikes (yes I know he was never high on the Power 50, but my point is he should not even be on the list).

 

The overall ranking of prospects is what makes it so fun, because everyone has a different opinion of how players should rate vs. one another. It is a balance between one's upside, physical projection and their current abilities and performance. Obviously some people put more value in performance than future projection, which is why you may not consider Frederickson a prospect. A 6'6" lefty that can deal in the low-to-mid-90s is going to be rated very highly on other people's boards even if he does struggle to throw strikes.

 

As for Farris, I still consider him a prospect. He's a utility guy at the highest level, but as noted by a few people here, he shows some pretty good skills that should translate well as he moves up. The lack of walks as X points out is a concern, since he was drafted out of college and you somewhat expect him to be fairly refined in this area relative to the young players he's playing with. I have Farris in a group (from 33 to 41) right around Haydel, Komatsu and Brewer, as they all have their warts. I'm interested in seeing what Farris can do next year at Huntsville, since the FSL can suppress even the mightiest of sluggers' power (not that the SL is all that much better). It would be nice to have a utility middle infielder that can play good defense and swipe a few bags, even if he doesn't project as an everyday player.

 

I'm guessing the Brewers probably would rank Farris a bit higher than where I, and the eventual collective list, have him placed (mid-to-late-20s, early 30s).

[CheezWizHed]

MLB people think he they can teach a guy to throw strikes. Well, in two years the Brewers have not been sucessful in teaching Evan to throw strikes (yes I know he was never high on the Power 50, but my point is he should not even be on the list).

 

Wow. How long did it take Randy Johnson to throw strikes? I'm not saying Evan=Randy, but give him some time. I can understand saying he needs to be lower on the P50 (even if I don't necessarily agree). But to say he doesn't deserve to be on it at all is rather extreme. He is boom or bust pick, sure. We knew that. But teaching someone to repeat their delivery consistently does take years. But his upside is very good if he can figure it out.

 

Frankly, production for pitchers means very little to me prior to AA. I'd prefer Evan to have a 2.00 ERA, but I'm not worried about it (for now) that he doesn't. Keep developing and working on the delivery. Then the numbers will follow.

[CheezWizHed]

Colby, have you guys (the P50 crew) ever thought about displaying a score for each player showing their production vs. potential? That way we see more of the thinking behind the ranking?

 

So someone like Anundsen or Cody gets most of their rankings from production (not that they don't have potential, but has some limitations), while someone like Frederickson and Brewer would be the opposite.

 

Seems like that would clear up some of these P50 arguements, but also would probably be a lot more work on your end... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

just a thought.

[Mike]

CheezWizHed wrote:

---

I can understand saying he needs to be lower on the P50 (even if I don't necessarily agree). But to say he doesn't deserve to be on it at all is rather extreme.

Fair enough Cheez. Perhaps I was too harsh that he should be off the list, but I do say it needs to be >40.

 

I was angry draft day that he was taken so high having seen his struggles at USF, which one could argue in the WCC does not compare to anything Johnson faced in the PAC 10. Either way players do develop, but for fun here are their comps at age 22.

 

Player	Age	Level	League	ERA	IP	BB	K
Johnson	22	A+	FSL	3.16	119.2	94	133
Fredrickson	22	A	MDW	5.17	110.1	92	105

Comparable (excluding the one level difference), but he is headed more toward David Clyde (blast from the past for you over 45 guys).

[colbyjack]

Colby, have you guys (the P50 crew) ever thought about displaying a score for each player showing their production vs. potential? That way we see more of the thinking behind the ranking?

 

We haven't, and I wouldn't really consider it because it would be near impossible to come up with such a score. I'm sure someone has tried, but prospect rankings is 100% subjective, and I actually enjoy the well-supported arguments about who belongs where, even if I don't always agree with them.

 

We decided to push back the new P50 until next week given the August 17th signing deadline for the '09 draftees, and that will also help correspond with the P50 a month after that, which will likely be unveiled at some point in mid-September when the minor league season is finished. Let's all hope the Brewers add a few more promising names between now and Monday (c'mon Kentrail Davis)!

[LouisEly]

For kicks (not that my opinion counts):

 

1) Gamel

2) Escobar

3) Lucroy (love the OBP & more BB than K; .808 OPS in Huntsville, much less at a premium position, is nothing to scoff at)

4) Braddock

5) Lawrie (young but still not a great year, should repeat low A)

6) Green

7) Salome

8) Rogers

9) Schafer (offense and defense in CF; the Brady Anderson/Steve Finley pre-steriods comparisons are valid)

10) Axford (The shocker! In the 9 games since the blow-up: 12.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 14 K)

11) Arnett

12) Odorizzi

13) Gindl

14) Cain

15) Peralta

16) Scarpetta

17) Jeffress (still throws upper 90's, suspended or not)

18) Anundsen

19) Butler

20) Iribarren

 

21-25) Rivas, Prince, Aguilar, Dillard, spot saved for Kentrail Davis

26-30) Cody, Wooten, Periard, Dennis, Heckathorn

31-35) Fiers, Hand, Baron, Bucci, Garfield

36-40) The land of underperforming 2nd round draft picks: Dykstra, Walla, Brewer, Lintz, Frederickson (yes I know he was a sandwich pick)

41-50) Farris, Bowman, Katin, Wilson, Wheeler, Zarraga, Welch, Frerichs, Corporan, and... welcome back, Mike Jones

 

Edit: And, of course, as soon as I post this Lawrie goes on a tear and Axford gives up a 3-run dinger.

[CheezWizHed]

colbyjack[/b]]We haven't, and I wouldn't really consider it because it would be near impossible to come up with such a score. I'm sure someone has tried, but prospect rankings is 100% subjective, and I actually enjoy the well-supported arguments about who belongs where, even if I don't always agree with them.

Well of course there are the numerical rankings for speed, defense, power, average, etc... I just wasn't sure how detailed you guys got with rankings. I realize the P50 is more of a "fun" ranking than a serious ranking and definitely appreciate the hard work you guys put in here.

 

My baseball "background" says to scout with eyes. But my engineering-style mind says to measure/quantify without bias. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Mike]

Dear Brewerfan staff,

 

This is great! You coincided with MLB's signing deadline. The question is will the P50 make it to press by midnight EDT?

[And That]

The new Power 50 will be online tomorrow at some point, if everything goes according to plan.

[molitor fan]

This thread has been filled with excellent discussion by the way...this site is filled with tremendous insight (brewerfan is a true 5 tool prospect), and I think only in threads like this has it recently lived up to its potential

[jjfanec]

I am really interested to see how the newly signed group of players fare in the Power 50. Will Davis, Gennett, and Hall be on the list since it was supposed to be done tonight? All three are intriguing prospects and I could easily see them being pretty high. This draft did a great job adding pitching prospects many of who were college guys like Arnett and Heckathorn but also a high upside high school kid like Hall. The bats are intriguing as well. Davis, Richardson, Prince and others from the college ranks and Garfield, Gennett, Walla from the high school ranks. I am really beginning to like our depth in the lower minors.

 

Along with the new guys the month have been good for some of the other prospects like Gindl and Schafer both of whom have made believers out of me. Cain has started to hit lately and Lucroy has been on a month long tear. I am excited to see the next power 50 it is what brought me to this site the first time.

[twobrewers]

I'm really curious to see where Braddock turns up.

 

He might have the highest ceiling of any player in our system. But he is also currently pitching out of the bullpen and still can't shake his injury bug.

 

I'd have him #3 on potential alone - but I have a lot of faith in current medicine.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let's take a look at the BA/OBP of 3 of the greatest base stealers of all time:

 

Lou Brock: .293/.343

 

Maury Wills: .281/.330

 

Vince Coleman: .264/.324

 

While Farris of course is not in that category, with 59 steals in 64 attempts, through 107 games, for this year relative to his competition, he is comparable. You will note that none of those guys had exceptional OBP relative to their BA. My point is that it is unfair to label him as not having plate discipline because his walk total is relatively low. Great base stealers don't generally walk a lot because pitchers don't want to give a guy 2nd base. The game plan is to throw them strikes at all cost. Ricky Henderson is a notable exception but he also had the dimension of plus power.

 

If I had to guess I'd say Farris got off to a slow start this year because he took strikes early in counts trying to increase his walk totals, and got behind in a lot of counts, making him more defensive. Since the All Star break (when he's hitting .335 in 47 games), I'd surmise he's become more aggressive earlier in counts. That's not poor discipline, it's a smart mature approach.

 

That's why I think Farris needs to move up considerably on the 50 list (I'd have him in the 20-25 range). That he's still in A ball has more to do with the Brewer organization tendency to value keeping a core together (Farris, Gindl, Schafer) than it does reflect on their ability to have success at a higher level. I think Farris belongs with Gindl and Schafer as guys to watch.

[kramnoj]

So you cherry picked 3 of the top 19 basestealers to make your case? Why is Henderson an exeception, when you ignore Raines?

[JohnBriggs12]

So you cherry picked 3 of the top 19 basestealers to make your case? Why is Henderson an exeception, when you ignore Raines?

Cherry pick? Wills and Brock broke SB records my friend. Brock is in the HOF based almost entirely on his SB. Coleman surpassed 100 three straight years.

 

Since you brought up Raines, I'll counter that with Aparicio who's in the HOF with his career .311 OBP.

 

My post said "generally" and didn't preclude exceptions like Henderson or Raines. Even Molitor never took a ton of walks.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The offensive environment is pretty different now from when Brock, Wills, Aparicio were playing...a league OBP of .320 or so is notably different from now, where it's more like .335. In general, playing for one run is a better percentage move when the league average is 3.5 runs/game, as it was in 67-68, than when it's 4.5 as is the case right now. A number of the career SB leaders played in low-offense times, perhaps not surprisingly...in contrast, in 1954 ten steals would put you in the top ten in either league...in 1934 it would take twelve in the AL, but ten would do it in the NL. Coleman played in an environment more like today's, one in which team offenses were more diverse. Still, he is a bit of an outlier, and fit well with a specific team philosophy (STL had as many stolen base threats as entire divisions).

 

That's not to say that Farris can't be a useful player. But in today's game, he's going to be less valuable if he can't get on base more. He's limited to 2b it seems, and while there's some reason to believe his defense adds value, he's going to be in direct competition with some very good offensive talents on the Brewers and on other teams for that matter. If he's not starting, he's more limited as a utility guy than someone who plays the left side of the infield.

 

For the system as a whole, it has been an odd year, with some disappointing years and slow starts by top prospects but some emerging (and re-emerging) names to shuffle the prospect lists.

[Mike]

"And That" and company must really be struggling with the rankings. Perhaps there is dissension amongst the ranks?

[brwrsfan]

I agree, the suspense is getting to me. Is it bad to check back every half hour (while at work mind you) to see if the new Power 50 is up? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Mike]

Is it bad to check back every half hour (while at work mind you) to see if the new Power 50 is up? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Of course not! I checked at 12:15 am PDT then before I went to work and now every 20 min. Soon I will be out of a job over this silly thrill!

[Kevbo74]

It's up! Checking every half hour or so really does pay off.

[colbyjack]

Thanks for your patience everyone. We had the list finalized by yesterday morning, but I needed a day+ to get the comments entered. Have at it!

[brwrsfan]

Woohoo!! And only missed it by 8 minutes or so...let's see it!

[filthyfrog]

I think Scarpetta should be ahead of Peralta. While Scarpetta has a few more walks in an otherwise nearly identical statline, there have been reports of Peralta needing to move to the bullpen in the future. I don't think anyone doubts that Cody is a starter for the long haul.

 

I also think Odorizzi should be ahead of Butler and Anundsen based on his potential, but I realize he hasn't necessarily earned it with his performance yet.

 

I love the bump for Schafer and the debuts of Davis, Heckathorn, Hall, Howell, Gennet, Bucci, and Lasker. Those additions make the list look a lot deeper.

 

And no Tyler Roberts? Did he get any votes?

[JohnBriggs12]

No Brownstein and Farris still behind slugs like Brewer, Haydel and Dykstra?

 

Can't put much credibility in that list.

[colbyjack]

It's one thing to question the placement of players, it's another to say "Can't put much credibility in that list." You've made a strong case for Farris, and plenty have made strong cases against him. No need to be a grump about it.

 

I don't care for arguing against players, but Brownstein needs to prove a lot more in higher levels before I consider him a legit prospect.