Next Power 50 in Mid-Autumn

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

UPDATE: LINK

 

Just wondering if there was a Power 50 coming out for July? Thanks guys for your effort on previous Power 50's. I truly enjoy reading them and am looking forward to see who dropped and who rose after the month of July has passed.

[CheezWizHed]

I know they were waiting for the non-waiver trade deadline, so maybe they are still holding out hope. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

But I concur with 'Rillo and looking forward to the next one.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'll take a stab at the top 10 assuming that Casey and Gamel are ineligible due to MLB PA's.

 

1. Escobar - Another solid month at the plate in Nashville. His bat will play in the Bigs at SS.

2. Lawrie - Nothing special going on in Appleton with Brett, but learning a new position and still hitting solidly.

3. Lucroy - Hit well in July. Could be in Milwaukee to open 2010.

4. Peralta - No doubt in my mind that he is our top pitching prospect right now. Can't wait to see him in Appleton in a few weeks.

5. Arnett - Had a rough start in Helena, but just getting acquainted to pro ball.

6. Odorizzi - Finally getting a shot to pitch for Helena and is showing his stuff.

7. Cain - At least he's back on the field, but needs to start hitting better to prove Melvin that he doesn't need to throw big money at Cameron in the offseason.

8. Scarpetta - I have him penciled in the 2011 starting rotation.

9. Rogers - I might just pencil in Rogers in the 2011 rotation if he can keep up the good health.

10. Salome - Remains in the top 10 because of his stellar 2008, but it's been a year to forget for Angel.

 

Honorable Mention - Braddock, Gindl, Anundson, Butler, Periard.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I've been trying to come up with my own top ten list and it has been quite difficult. After Escobar and Lawrie, the next dozen or so players could be shuffled up and put randomly in any order. I just don't see anyone stand out. Not sure if that is good news or bad. Is it because we have so many good players or because we have many good players with significant holes in their game?

[BoKnowsBall]

Looking forward to seeing where Nick Bucci gets placed

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the biggest mover on the power 50 has to be Eric Farris. 51 steals in 55 attempts? Are you kidding me? His BA and OPS are climbing (.275/.325/.358) and that fact that he strikes out just once in every 10 AB's shows he's probably more of a .290-.300 hitter. For a smaller guy, he can generate some power as shown by 6 HR. Plus he's very solid defensively (.983 FP).

 

He's got a ways to go, but imagine 3 years from now, he and Escobar as the keystone combo for the Brewers with both capable of 50+ steals? Of course by then, hopefully they'd have a manager that doesn't disdain the SB.

 

Eric Farris needs to be on everyone's radar and should be in the top 30 at least on the power 50.

[Never Outhustled]

Farris is a 3rd year pro after being a 3 year starter in college, but he still can't hit. He's not a prospect. He might fill a Mel Stocker type role as a PR is Septemeber, but thats it.

 

The big movers will be Mark Rogers and Amaury Rivas. BoKnowsBall brings up Bucci, who should make a very nice debut, and a little behind him should be Adrian Rosario. Also making his debut will be Kyle Heckathorn.

[JohnBriggs12]

Farris is a 3rd year pro after being a 3 year starter in college, but he still can't hit. He's not a prospect. He might fill a Mel Stocker type role as a PR is Septemeber, but thats it.

 

The big movers will be Mark Rogers and Amaury Rivas. BoKnowsBall brings up Bucci, who should make a very nice debut, and a little behind him should be Adrian Rosario. Also making his debut will be Kyle Heckathorn.

Couldn't disagree with you more. He's been on a roll lately (14 for his last 34), and he hit .326 and .293 his first two years of pro ball. Mel Stocker did not hit over .273 in any one season until he was 27 years old playing in the Florida State League (not counting a year in indy ball) and never hit more than 3 HR (Farris has 6 this year) or even stole as many bases as Farris is on pace for this year. Overall Stocker's a career .253 hitter, primarily as a corner OF, not a second baseman.

 

Farris was a 4th round draft pick. By that measure alone, he's a prospect.

[wibadgers23]

I believe Gamel is still eligible to be on the power 50. He only got 24 AB in July before he was sent back down and needed about 42 AB in the beginning of the month to graduate. Anyway, I'll take a shot at it.
1. Gamel
2. Escobar
3. Lawrie
4. Lucroy
5. Braddock
6. Salome
7. Peralta
8. Scarpetta
9. Arnett
10. Cain

[Never Outhustled]

Couldn't disagree with you more. He's been on a roll lately (14 for his last 34), and he hit .326 and .293 his first two years of pro ball. Mel Stocker did not hit over .273 in any one season until he was 27 years old playing in the Florida State League (not counting a year in indy ball) and never hit more than 3 HR (Farris has 6 this year) or even stole as many bases as Farris is on pace for this year. Overall Stocker's a career .253 hitter, primarily as a corner OF, not a second baseman.

Farris was on a roll at the end of last season too, but it didn't translate into success this year did it? He has a 683 OPS as a 23 year old in A+. Thats not what future big leaguers do.

 

I compare him too Stocker because they both are outstanding basestealers, and bring nothing else to the table.

 

 

Farris was a 4th round draft pick. By that measure alone, he's a prospect.

The Brewers have had just 6 4th rounders in the history of their franchise make the Majors. Being an unproductive 4th rounder doesn't make you a prospect.

[colbyjack]

We are currently working to put this together. Gamel is still eligible, since we go by MLB ABs, with 130 being the cut-off, not PAs.

[dadofandrew]

Farris might be a guy to watch, but a sub 700 OPS won't cut it. He's a utility guy at best until he can hit, and few 2B have the ability to play other spots, or else they would not be playing 2B in A ball.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

WIBadgers, I have a pretty strong disagreement with your top 10. In no way do I think that Zach Braddock is our top pitching prospect. He hasn't proven he can stay healthy and even when they baby him down in Huntsville he still lands himself on the DL. I don't think he has the durability to be an SP and has closer type upside in his future. Now, if Braddock can prove me wrong in 2010 with a healthy year as a starting pitcher logging over 100 innings, then I'll change my mind.

[wibadgers23]

Good point Rillo. He hasn't pitched enough innings to warrant a top 5 spot, which is why I left Rogers out of my top 10 even though he is pitching great right now. I'd probably move Peralta up a little bit and Braddock back a few spots.

[LouisEly]

I think an amendment should be made to the rules that anyone under the age of 25 in the minors not on a rehab assignment should be eligible. My guess is that Rivas is the biggest mover with competition from Axford... Walla drops the most. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Jones sneak back in at #49 or #50 - who would have ever thought they would see him on that list again?

 

wibadgers23 is right on with 1-6; then I have Green at #7. It will be interesting to see how 8-16 shake out as you have Gindl, Cain, Schafer, Arnett, Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta, Anundsen, and Rogers all neck and neck. Of particular interest is how the panel ranks Gindl, Cain, and Schafer; Gindl has the best offensive numbers but plays RF where the others play CF; Schafer is putting up identical numbers as Cain did last year in Brevard at roughly the same age and hasn't made an error all year (Gindl has six), and Cain is struggling a bit coming off of injury.

 

Not sure why Corporan has dropped off the list. Tough to get PT when you have Salome and Lucroy at AAA and AA. He's still on the 40-man, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him up in September so they can PH for Kendall late in games. If Henry Blanco can stay in the majors this long, Corporan has a chance to make it as a backup/defensive catcher.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I have Rogers farther ahead of Braddock at this point because the Brewers haven't had to mess with him going to the pen yet (not that they could have anyways because he's been hurt so much) and he's put together a healthy year so far. Rogers is in position to be in our 2011 rotation as a midseason callup if he can pitch a solid 2010. I don't see Braddock as a candidate at this point to be in our 2011 rotation. I do see him up to Milwaukee as early as 2010 as a reliever though.

[LouisEly]

I see your point about Rogers and how many innings each can go at a time right now; the counter to that is their BB:K:IP ratios, where Braddock in 34 IP on the year has 7 BB and 53 K, whereas Rogers in 50 IP has 26 BB and 52K. It may take longer to get Braddock stretched out, and it's possible he may never be able to get to a place where he can start, but the production seems to favor Braddock. While Rogers can go more innings per start/outing now, it is unlikely that he will be able to go more than 100 innings next year because of the theory/practice of limited incremental innings increases from one year to the next, putting him in roughly the same boat as Braddock. Since Rogers hasn't pitched since 2006, they may shut him down for the year any day now depending on what target/limit of IP they have set for him.

 

The interesting thing about Rogers is whether he can be in the rotation in 2011 or at least spend the entire year in the rotation. If he can go 100 innings next year, the target for 2011 might be around 120-130, in which case he might start the year as the #5 to allow him to skip starts but would have to move to the pen by late July. If my calculations are correct, 2011 is his last option year so he can still be in the minors that year and might have to be to safely build up how many innings he can go as a starter, and then target 150-160 innings in 2012.

 

Either way I just hope that both are beyond any more serious injuries.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Rogers is pitching in the AFL so apparently the Brewers are trying to make up for lost time and have him ready for 2011 if possible.

[JohnBriggs12]

Farris might be a guy to watch, but a sub 700 OPS won't cut it. He's a utility guy at best until he can hit, and few 2B have the ability to play other spots, or else they would not be playing 2B in A ball.

When your net stolen bases is 51 and counting (55 SB - 4 CS), it's like adding 51 total bases. If you add 51 total bases to his 137, that's 188, and 188 total bases in 383 AB, makes his equivalent slugging % actually .491 and his actual OPS more like .818.

 

Throw in the fact that defensively (just 8 errors in 102 games) he is above average, that adds to his value. He also played 8 games at SS in 08 without an error in 30 chances. I'm sure the Brewers are keeping him at 2B because they've got Escobar.

 

And I repeat, it's not like he can't hit. He's got a .295 lifetime BA and a .339 lifetime OBP. Granted he's not getting a ton of walks, in part because pitchers can't afford to walk a guy stealing at a 93% clip. He also has 22 sacrifices this year. That's an incredible number and certainly helps his team win.

[Never Outhustled]

When your net stolen bases is 51 and counting (55 SB - 4 CS), it's like adding 51 total bases.

No its not. You don't drive in runs with stolen bases.

 

If you add 51 total bases to his 137, that's 188, and 188 total bases in 383 AB, makes his equivalent slugging % actually .491 and his actual OPS more like .818.

Don't forget to subtract the caught stealings from his already poor OBA? he doesn't project to get on base at all at the MLB level. You can't steal 1st base.

[JohnBriggs12]

X ellence,

 

Obviously you don't think much of Farris, but will you concede he should be ahead of Brent Brewer on the Power 50? Remember my original post was that Farris should be in the 25 - 30 range and Brewer is currently 26th and is hitting .213/.277/.284 with 25 errors in the same infield as Farris. Granted Brewer is 2 years younger and playing the tougher position, but Farris' numbers are far better.

[Never Outhustled]

Obviously you don't think much of Farris, but will you concede he should be ahead of Brent Brewer on the Power 50? Remember my original post was that Farris should be in the 25 - 30 range and Brewer is currently 26th and is hitting .213/.277/.284 with 25 errors in the same infield as Farris. Granted Brewer is 2 years younger and playing the tougher position, but Farris' numbers are far better.

I'll concede that Brewer has been a colossal disappointment, but that doesn't make Farris a prospect. Brewer will move down in the P50, but they will be a few newcomers that will make fairly high debuts to replace him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Obviously you don't think much of Farris, but will you concede he should be ahead of Brent Brewer on the Power 50? Remember my original post was that Farris should be in the 25 - 30 range and Brewer is currently 26th and is hitting .213/.277/.284 with 25 errors in the same infield as Farris. Granted Brewer is 2 years younger and playing the tougher position, but Farris' numbers are far better.

I'll concede that Brewer has been a colossal disappointment, but that doesn't make Farris a prospect. Brewer will move down in the P50, but they will be a few newcomers that will make fairly high debuts to replace him.

Ok, so I think you are conceding he should be higher than Brewer. How about Eric Komatsu and Lee Haydel (both of whom were also higher than Farris)? Will you concede Farris belongs above both of them too?

 

The new guys were figured in the last power 50 were they not? I'm sure a few more might debut on the next but not all that high.

[Mike]

Ok, so I think you are conceding he should be higher than Brewer. How about Eric Komatsu and Lee Haydel (both of whom were also higher than Farris)? Will you concede Farris belongs above both of them too?

I have seen over 10 games live of the Manatees this season and followed everyone by audio when available. Eric Farris deserves to be ahead of Brewer, Komatsu and Haydel. Here is why:

 

Brent Brewer is an absolute specimen on the field. He looks the most athletic of all the Manatees, the problem is atheleticism and performance do not always coincide. Brent is not performing, particularly offensively. His pitch recognition is poor while Farris' is solid.

 

Eric Komatsu whom I saw a lot on the West Coast @ CSF during two years of play plus some HS is a very good hitter in the Gindl mold. The problem is he is a 2008 draftee and because of injuries has produced nothing in two years of pro ball. Eric deserves to be ahead of him too. Might Kpmatsu pass Farris later? Sure, but how can you say Komatsu is higher now?

 

Lee Haydel is having a fine season and is faster that Farris, but does not have nearly the same amount of SB's. Why? Because he is not as smart a base runner as Farris. In addition Lee is an opposite field hitter with a low SLG % who will not be a corner OF because of the lack of said power, It is clear Cain and Schafer are the two CF prospects and that leaves Lee a 3rd CF. Therefore, Farris is a better prospect. He has a chance to crack 2B better than Lee in CF.

 

My problem in general with the Power 50 is the high ranking of guys' just on where they were drafted and/or how athletic they are. How does Arnett deserve to be as high as he was placed? One has to be more than athletic or more than throw 95 mph to make it to the Bigs. Look at Fredrickson for example. I saw him @USF and he couldn't throw strikes. MLB people think he they can teach a guy to throw strikes. Well, in two years the Brewers have not been sucessful in teaching Evan to throw strikes (yes I know he was never high on the Power 50, but my point is he should not even be on the list).

[filthyfrog]

Prospects below AA have to be evaluated largely based on their tools and not just by their performance. Farris has shown this year that he has at least one exciting tool and a .332 OBP isn't terrible even if you are old for your league. If he continues to swipe bags this well and plays a passable 2B, he'll be decent trade bait at the very least. And if he shows reasonable improvement in his OBP skills, it seems like he could jump up prospect lists pretty quickly.

 

He's certainly not a top prospect, but saying he's not a prospect at all is going too far IMO.