Hardy and Hart's futures with the team

[DannoMac21]

Marc Newfield

[logan82]

Cuddyer is definitely established in the outfield. He is established as a bad defender. -8.0 UZR/150 over his career in RF.

 

 

X ellence wrote:

The argument of Cameron versus FA pitcher isn't a difficult one. Cameron will again be worth over 4 WAR this year. Will the $10 million Cameron would cost buy us a 4 WAR pitcher? Thats highly unlikely. Pitchers that project to 4 WAR get huge long term deals, the kind that shouldn't be given out.

 

Cameron is a safe, productive player, and should be retained.

[AJAY]

Perhaps this is slightly off-topic, but I really like what Felipe Lopez brings to the top of the order. I am so excited to have a productive leadoff hitter, and I hope the team is able to bring him back somehow. If Rickie Weeks was moved to left-field, Ryan Braun could be moved to rightfield. Then the Brewers could trade Hart for some pitching.

 

Right now, I see Lopez as having more value to the team than Hart. Leadoff hitters are much harder to find than corner outfielders who aren't putting up any really special numbers overall.

[Oldcity]

Weeks is a better defender than Lopez at second, plus he loses a lot of his value if you move him to a corner OF spot. Unless the team is willing to pay Lopez to be a utility infielder, there probably isn't a spot for him next season. The only way would be if the team trades Hardy but wanted Escobar to get more seasoning for awhile, but Lopez isn't a good defensive shortstop.

[endaround]

Lopez might have learned to hit or he could be going through a peak period and is about to return to his past form. His success this year is BABIP driven (.352). If he returns to his normal BABIP (.320) he returns to being the poor player he was every year except 2005.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Hardy will for sure be traded this offseason, hopefully for a legit #2 or #3 starter. I'm not as sure about Hart, depends what they do at 3B with Gamel and what they do about CF.

[joepepsi]

Hardy for Harang is a trade I could support. Too bad it didn't happen.

[Fear The Chorizo]

with the market as it is involving pitching (i.e., teams with quality young pitching prospects don't trade them and quality starters aren't available until they're in a free agent year and their team's out of it by the deadline), I see no way an offseason trade of Hardy nets a #2/#3 caliber starting pitcher on his own. Last offseason, yes, but not after the season J.J.'s currently putting up, and with him headed toward his free agent year in 2010...what team in their right mind would trade a quality arm for a guy that nobody can figure out how good he actually is, who's set to become a free agent?

 

J.J. may be able to be part of a trade that brings a quality starter to Milwaukee, but there would also need to be a quality prospect or two headed out the door with him.

 

Escobar's hitting a shade under 0.300 in his first year at AAA - if he is truly a superior defensive SS to Hardy, there's no way Hardy's a Brewer in 2010 - the Brewers need as much payroll flexibility as possible while Hall, Riske, and Suppan's contracts weigh on them. Hardy and Hart's arby #'s will look much better if one or both of them are earning it playing for a different team.

[joepepsi]

Escobar's hitting a shade under 0.300 in his first year at AAA - if he is truly a superior defensive SS to Hardy, there's no way Hardy's a Brewer in 2010 - the Brewers need as much payroll flexibility as possible while Hall, Riske, and Suppan's contracts weigh on them. Hardy and Hart's arby #'s will look much better if one or both of them are earning it playing for a different team.

You have to like his 80% base stealing rate two years running. I was suspicious of him going into this season, but I'm satisfied now. I want him leading off. Gamel or McGehee batting 2nd, Rickie batting 5th.

 

I'm done with Hardy. I doubt he's a .230 hitter going forward, but the Brewers can't keep everyone and they have a replacement for him. Doug should be able to get one or two solid pitching prospects for him.

[logan82]

Escobar is likely a bottom of the order hitter when he comes up. At least for the first year. Yes he can steal bases, but he is still likely to be a rather weak hitter.

[Fatter than Joey]

You have to like his 80% base stealing rate two years running.

 

You can't steal first. OBP will dictate where he hits hopefully.

 

I'd almost rather a great basestealer be in the 8th spot -- as they could get to 2nd/3rd w/o relying on the pitcher to get them over. Stealing 2nd with Braun/Prince up makes me nervous.

[Roderick]

Weeks is a better defender than Lopez at second,

I always fear that Weeks is going to end up with a full case of the Steve Sax/Blass yips. So if through roster and budget management the Brewers end up with Weeks in the OF and Lopez at 2nd, but better elsewhere on the roster it wouldn't bother me at all.

[LouisEly]

The argument of Cameron versus FA pitcher isn't a difficult one. Cameron will again be worth over 4 WAR this year. Will the $10 million Cameron would cost buy us a 4 WAR pitcher? Thats highly unlikely. Pitchers that project to 4 WAR get huge long term deals, the kind that shouldn't be given out.

 

Then how exactly should they get better-than-replacement pitching? Looper cost ~$5M this offseason for two years, the second year being a team option, and he seems to be roughly replacement level. So for double that they should be able to get a two year deal with a starter who is better than Looper. A Jason Marquis or Joel Piniero find in the offseason could be had for that $$.

 

The other half of that equation is whether or not Cameron can sustain his production. While Cameron is having a good year overall, I have to wonder how much of the increase in OBP over last year is due to hitting 6th and being pitched around because of Hardy, Kendall, and the pitcher hitting after him; I wonder if anyone hitting in the #6 spot would have an increase in OBP because of hitting in front of Hardy/Kendall/pitcher. Cam's SLG is down this year compared to last which is cause for a bit of concern at age 36, and 37 seems to be where guys really start falling off the table.

 

If they could package Hardy and Hart together for a #2 or #3 starter and keep Cameron, moving Weeks to RF, that would seem to be ideal. I'm not entirely sold though that Cam for $10M is better than pitching.

[logan82]

Develop pitching internally or trade for it. There really isn't a good way to do much more than get replacement level pitchers in FA without paying through the nose. Either that or giving out a multi-year contract at a high price. Pitching is a high risk area to put money into. Pitchers get hurt, a lot. Position players are a much lower risk investment. Not to mention Cameron in CF makes all our pitchers better.

[silversurferr]

I like him, but we gotta trade Hardy for a solid starter. We are stuck with Hart unless he is packaged with Hardy for pitching. I do not like Hart in CF. Yes he is fast, but he is kind of a clod. Hart has the uncanny ability to miss catches by getting to the ball and letting it nick off the end of his glove. In other words, he routinely just misses making tough catches.

[Ennder]

Looper cost ~$5M this offseason for two years, the second year being a team option, and he seems to be roughly replacement level. So for double that they should be able to get a two year deal with a starter who is better than Looper. A Jason Marquis or Joel Piniero find in the offseason could be had for that $$

 

This is highly debateable and really depends on which stats you prefer. While Looper may be the worst of these 3 pitchers it most likely isn't by very much, certainly not enough to pay double for one of them.

 

Looper has an xFIP of 4.78 on the year and generally has one in the 4.60-5.00 range.

Marquis has an xFIP of 4.44 on the year and generally has one in the 4.40-5.00 range.

Pineiro has an xFIP of 3.80 on the year and generally has one in the 4.30-5.00 range.

 

The biggest downfall of Looper in this specific comparison is probably just age and the fact he used to be a reliever so we can't be sure his arm holds up.

[silversurferr]

Marquis and Piniero are not signicantly better than Looper. We do not need another fourth or fifth starter. Particularly not as long as we are still stuck with Jonathon Livingston Suppan's contract.

[brewerguy71]

....Should have traded Hardy in the offseason like I had thought.

 

His value is far less in this year's offseason than it would have been last. At best they get a #3 starter for him.

[CWSOmaha]

Is there a contender now desperate for a SS that would make a move for JJ and maybe overpay a little knowing that he's had good year(s) in the past? Maybe this team's SS is just not getting it done and they feel JJ could be an upgrade?

Or wouldn't JJ clear waviers so they could make a trade?

[kramnoj]

There's speculation that Christian Guzman has been claimed by the Red Sox. That was one of the teams that had been talked about in the Rumors forum as a possible target for Hardy.

[CWSOmaha]

After thinking about it, I doubt though that Melvin would put JJ on waviers to be claimed and try to work out a trade now as opposed to trading him in the off season where he might have more value, and hoping his numbers go up the rest of the season.

I was just thinking(hoping) that someone would be desperate(like the Red Sox) for a SS at this point and overpay to get a good one.

[kramnoj]

There's no harm in trying it and seeing what happens. Try to work out a deal with whoever claims him. If you don't like it, pull back. If the team is desperate enough, they may trade more in the heat of a playoff race with a 2 day deadline than over the course of the offseason.

 

At this point the Red Sox are closer to losing their WC status than they are to regaining the division lead. Theo may feel pressure to overpay to get the Sox into the playoffs.

[jjfanec]

This is from the JJ for Clay Buchholz thread in the rumor section.

 

From Buster Olney today....(I'm not sure if JJ will pass thru waivers however)...

 

"2. Heard this: The Brewers' J.J. Hardy has not passed through waivers yet, and given Boston's need for a shortstop, you wonder if he would be a natural target for the Red Sox if Milwaukee -- now six games out in the NL Central -- decides to wave the white flag later this month. Boston and Milwaukee had some talks before the trade deadline about Hardy, who is hitting .228 with 11 homers and 45 RBI, but had a major disagreement at that time about the shortstop's value: The Brewers wanted top-of-the line pitching, and the Red Sox thought that was too expensive, given his poor numbers this year, his streaky nature and his escalating salary (he's making $4.65 million this year and is arbitration eligible). The Brewers, of course, have a shortstop in waiting in Triple-A, in Alcides Escobar."

 

Not sure how JJ would slide all the way to Boston, you have to assume another team would claim him but if he did, Boston's huge need for a shortstop and their sliding way behind the Yankees and being tied for the WC could make them very willing to deal.

[sheethead]

I don't see how there would be a ton of GM's clamoring over JJ Hardy at this point. It would be different if he was having a down year, but he is having an "I fell off the cliff and can't play MLB baseball anymore" type of year. His value now is at an all time low. Maybe some GM's will forget about 2009 when evaluating him in the offseason, but if I were a GM I would be seriously concerned about his slide. Its not like he is even batting .245/.320/.390, which would be considered a significant down year. He is at .229/.300/.367, and from my vantage point is unable to make plays better shortstops normally make.

 

Hardy will net Melvin a soft-tosser and crappy catcher type deal. Thanks for being a Brewer JJ, good job helping us out. Can't wait to see you rake in your contract year for someone else next year. Typical.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I still like JJ but Melvin really blew it big time not trading him last offseason. Now he is gonna wind up getting a lousy pitcher in return for Hardy.