Hardy and Hart's futures with the team

[afeter]

Remember Alex Sanchez?

Remember Brady Clark?

[Oldcity]

2010 should be a year the Brewers look to make a run, which is why I wouldn't understand it being a forgone conclusion that Hardy is traded. Sure he's been bad this year, but this thread has already covered why he's not likely to be this bad next year. Escobar in a best case scenario next year would maybe match Hardy's value this season. Hardy is very likely to be the better player next year, so unless they feel they can get good pitching for him, I would keep him.

[sheethead]

2010 should be a year the Brewers look to make a run...

I am thinking 2011 will be the Brewers year to make a run. There are too many bad handcuffing contracts (approx $28 million for Hall, Riske, and Suppan) for Melvin to deal with next year, so his free agent options will be limited. If Hardy has value and can net some much needed pitching he needs to be moved. I don't see how his value will net any kind of difference maker, however. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Hardy back next year. Hart will be more likely to return, simply because the Brewers don't have any better options in RF at the moment.

[tigerbrew]

If Cameron is going to cost upwards of $7M next year, think I might to let him go instead. I'd also let Kendall and McClung walk to save money. Use whatever savings we can muster to improve our pitching, especially the rotation. Lesson learnt from this and last season is that good pitching is vital for success. Thankfully next season is the last for Suppan, Hall and Riske and we can finally clear their awful contracts, but sadly they will cost the Brewers $28.4M for 2010. Yucks!

[Ennder]

Lesson learnt from this and last season is that good pitching is vital for success.

 

I would say the lesson that was learned from this season is that pitching depth is vital for success. The problem has really been that we have no depth at all more than anything else. It is pretty rare to be lucky enough for your entire rotation to stay healthy a full season and when we had to go to the minors to replace things there was just nothing of value there. We need to get pitching at the AAA level and I don't think we are going to have it next season without making a few trades.

[MessiahRp]

Frankly I want JJ to play every day. We sort of have to hope he catches fire so that his trade value increases dramatically. Before this year JJ alone would have likely netted some decent pitching (by decent I don't mean Halladay, so let's not overstate this). With the way he's been playing we have to tack a bunch of players on to make that work.

 

If we had decided that this was a sell year we could have moved some hitters (Hart, Hardy, maybe Prince), got some quality pitching prospects in return and brought up some guys like Gamel and Escobar to get regular ABs this year and learn MLB pitching in hopes for a quality 2009 from both of them. However we held onto our cards and now we're going to be looking at another year next year like this one unless we somehow magically free up a lot of money and make some runs at some free agent pitchers.

 

Rp

[Roscoe Chill]

The only way both of those guys is back is because their trade value has gone down to nothing.

 

Exactly. Why would you go through the trade deadline stating that Alcides Escobar is untouchable and stand pat, essentially giving up hope for a '09 playoff push if Escobar wasn't going to be your SS in '10? Hardy isn't going to be making huge money, but he isn't going to be "cheap" either. If Hardy isn't unloaded in the off season it's because no one wants him for anything worthwhile...which is entirely possible I'm afraid.

[DougJones43]

Lesson learnt from this and last season is that good pitching is vital for success.

I would say the lesson that was learned from this season is that pitching depth is vital for success. The problem has really been that we have no depth at all more than anything else.

3 of our starters in the rotation going into the season have been awful, which has nothing to do with depth. Bush getting hurt and being replaced by Burns has been the only real depth problem, and I think it's safe to say this staff would still be pretty crappy even if that injury hadn't taken place.

[The Truth]

I think Hardy can be traded for a Looper type pitcher, i.e. a #4 or #5 starting pitcher who can put up a 4.75 ERA and give you 30 starts a season, and he will be... Escobar is an upgrade over Hardy right now, and will be moreso next year...Hart will likely be kept for another year

[logan82]

I think Hardy can be traded for a Looper type pitcher, i.e. a #4 or #5 starting pitcher who can put up a 4.75 ERA and give you 30 starts a season, and he will be...

 

Trading Hardy for a pitcher of that caliber would be a total waste. We can easily pick up a guy like that on the FA market without giving up players. If that is all we can get for Hardy, we are better off holding on to him and hoping for picks.

[jjfanec]

J.J. will be a Type A free agent next season so the team we trade him to will get a year of JJ and a chance to sign him long-term or gets two picks for him. That is worth much more than Looper. JJ could be packaged with some like Salome to get more in return as well.

 

MLB GM's are smart enough to not look at just one season. They will see that the year before JJ had the 4th best OPS's of any SS and the year before he had the 8th, add into that he is at worst an above average fielder and more likely a top 10 fielding SS easily. His value even after a down year is much better than people give him credit for. Sure this year was rough but guys bounce back all the time. Now he wont net an ace but if you package him with a guy like Salome you could next a very nice pitcher to go with Yo, Parra, Bush and Suppan.

[nate82]

I wish the Angels didn't have Aybar at SS and Kendrick at 2B but the Angels don't really have a 3B either they have Figgins right now and Wood though. Figgins will be a free agent after this year and the Angels have never really given Wood a chance at all I don't think they would give him any more of a chance next year either. Maybe a Hardy and Green for O'Sullivan/Reckling and ?????. I'm not that familiar with the Angels system outside of a couple of their pitchers and asking for one of their other top pitching prospects would probably be out of the question.

 

Hardy could play 3B but he wouldn't like it and looking at the other 3B in free agency and the ones in the Angels system that I know of none of them would put up the numbers a normal 3B would put up. Hardy would be their best 3B and probably the best 3B on the market production wise. Green gives the Angels a future 3B if Hardy doesn't pan out and Hardy should be a Type A free agent in 2011 so the Angels will get two picks from that.

 

I would want O'Sullivan since he is MLB ready but Reckling would be nice also but he isn't as ready as O'Sullivan is. A rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Bush, O'Sullivan, and Suppan would be a decent rotation nothing great but it would be better than what we have/had this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

J.J. will be a Type A free agent next season so the team we trade him to will get a year of JJ and a chance to sign him long-term or gets two picks for him. That is worth much more than Looper. JJ could be packaged with some like Salome to get more in return as well.

 

MLB GM's are smart enough to not look at just one season. They will see that the year before JJ had the 4th best OPS's of any SS and the year before he had the 8th, add into that he is at worst an above average fielder and more likely a top 10 fielding SS easily. His value even after a down year is much better than people give him credit for. Sure this year was rough but guys bounce back all the time. Now he wont net an ace but if you package him with a guy like Salome you could next a very nice pitcher to go with Yo, Parra, Bush and Suppan.

I do think they'll be able to find a GM that values Hardy enough to give up some value for him, but to think this season hasn't greatly diminished his value is wrong. If the Brewers were to keep him and he repeated his poor season, his value will be down to nothing and Escobar could see his development plateau by playing another year in AAA. They aren't going to get a top of the line starting pitcher or a stud prospect. Packaging him with Salome who's no sure thing, doesn't get you a whole lot more than an extra body thrown in. They'd need to package Parra with Hardy to really get a proven starter or stud prospect otherwise the best case scenario would be a guy like Brian Bannister. Even that might take Hardy picking it up down the stretch and getting that BA close to .250 and SP around .400.

[southpaw121505]

No team is going to trade for Hardy and play him anywhere but SS, just like the Brewers arent going to play him anywhere but SS. Thinking a team will trade for him and move him to 3rd is a video game scenario.

[Ennder]

3 of our starters in the rotation going into the season have been awful, which has nothing to do with depth. Bush getting hurt and being replaced by Burns has been the only real depth problem, and I think it's safe to say this staff would still be pretty crappy even if that injury hadn't taken place.

I'm a bit confused by which 3 you are talking about. Before his injury Suppan had a sub 4.50 ERA going and Looper is under 5. We have had one really bad starter and that is Parra and when we sent him down there was nobody to replace him with which is what I'm talking about with the depth issues.

 

Looper has a 4.78 xFIP which is right where you would expect.

Suppan is at a 5.26 xFIP after his two terrible starts and before that it was under 5.

 

These guys were doing just fine outside of the injuries and having no depth. They were right around expectations which were 4.50-5.00 ERA back of the rotation type guys.

[endaround]

And if you don't ignore the fact that Looper and Suppan are throwing up tons of gopher balls both are below replacement level. Looper is pitching about 2 wins worse than projected.

[nate82]

No team is going to trade for Hardy and play him anywhere but SS, just like the Brewers arent going to play him anywhere but SS. Thinking a team will trade for him and move him to 3rd is a video game scenario.

Was the Nationals trading for Soriano and moving him to the OF a video game scenario? There are a couple of more trades where a player switched positions. If the Angels acquired Hardy they would definitely switch him to 3B since Aybar is the better SS. If a team trades for a player they don't have to play the player where they were playing before and it really wouldn't matter to the Angels. If Hardy leaves over it they would still be getting Green and the two draft picks Hardy would bring back from leaving.

[Ennder]

And if you don't ignore the fact that Looper and Suppan are throwing up tons of gopher balls both are below replacement level. Looper is pitching about 2 wins worse than projected.

HR are as random as ERA, if you are going to just ignore HR/FB normalization you might as well just look at ERA instead of any other stat and both were just fine by ERA. Guess it depends on what stat you want to use, I think RAR and FIP are pretty flawed in general with pitchers. Looper has produced the xFIP and ERA that was expected out of him, he went about it by being lucky in one area and unlucky in another but the end result is just about what was expected.

[monty57]

I heard from what I think is a reliable source that "the trade that didn't happen" was Hardy to the Reds for Harang, so that's probably the type talent Melvin's looking for. I think it's pretty likely that Hardy will be traded prior to next year, but I'd guess that Hart will still be here. His value is low and we don't have anyone to replace him, especially if Cameron is gone.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hardly recall a period of time where the CF was so bad that it really stuck out. I think our defense in CF had always been

just fine P.C. (Pre-Cam)

Remember Alex Sanchez?

 

And Bill Hall? And Brady Clark?...

Scott *shudder* Podsednik

 

 

 

Was the Nationals trading for Soriano and moving him to the OF a video game scenario?

 

No, that was removing a horrible fielder from a challenging position (like moving Braun to LF)

[Diskono]

I hardly recall a period of time where the CF was so bad that it really stuck out. I think our defense in CF had always been

just fine P.C. (Pre-Cam)

Remember Alex Sanchez?

 

And Bill Hall? And Brady Clark?...

Scott *shudder* Podsednik

Centerfielder Jeromy Burnitz.

[endaround]

Jeffery Hammonds. A completely disinterested Marquis Grissom.

[LouisEly]

Tom Haudricourt was on the D-List yesterday and was commenting on how Hardy just looks like he's been defeated and given up on the season at this point. I hope the Brewers only play him sporadically from here on out, unless he gets hot. The lineup is so much better with McGehee and Counsell in it right now.

 

Unfortunately I have to agree. After watching four games in person the last few days, all in field level seats, I could not say with a straight face that Hardy is hitting a "hard" .227, and his misplay of TGJ's grounder cost them dearly. The worst was when the Brewers loaded the bases with nobody out in SD, and Hardy struck out without making contact with two of the pitches in the dirt. You cannot strike out with the bases loaded and nobody out, especially swinging at two pitches in the dirt.

 

Briggs - good call on Yount. No middle infielder is going to step out in CF and instantly be Cameron, but like you said Hall was adequate by the middle of the season and someone athletic enough like Weeks or Hart could do well there eventually if given the chance. Remember, Hart hasn't played his entire career in the OF either. Don't get me wrong, I value Cam's defense out there, but if I have to choose between $10M going to Cameron or to pitching this offseason it would be hard for me to pick Cameron.

 

Why would you go through the trade deadline stating that Alcides Escobar is untouchable and stand pat, essentially giving up hope for a '09 playoff push if Escobar wasn't going to be your SS in '10?

 

I see your point, however Melvin has said that the best return for a position player comes in the offseason not at the deadline, so he may feel he can get more for Hardy at the winter meetings than now.

[LouisEly]

If the topic is bad Brewers CFs, don't sell a Mouton short.

[MNBrew]

This idea is predicated on Cameron not coming back at a more roster-friendly salary ($5-6M-ish):

 

As enigmatic as Delmon Young has been, I wouldn't want him. But is it worth trading a live arm like McClung plus something more (if needed) to pitching-starved MN for Michael Cuddyer? It'd likely mean other OF shuffling (Hart to CF), which would raise some obvious defensive concerns, although Cuddyer's a solid & established RF. Then just maybe that frees up a bit more $$ to land other pitching.

 

Combine that with the rumbled Hardy-for-Harang deal, which would've helped the pitching, too, and all you'd really need is some sucker to take Suppan's contract in a deal.