How do you achieve a "consistent" offense?

[MJLiverock]

OK so I was bored and thought to run a little run distribution analysis for the Brewers this year and their opponents. ( not league average, just how opponents have scored vs. Brewers)

 

Brewers scored 2 runs or less 27x or 25%; opponents 26x or 24%

Brewers scored 3 runs or less 38x or 36%; opponents 41x or 38%

Brewers scored 4 runs or less 59x or 55%; opponents 50x or 47%

 

Brewers scored 6 runs or more 36x or 34%; opponents 43x or 40%

Brewers scored 7 runs or more 26x or 24%; opponents 30x or 28%

Brewers scored 8 runs or more 17x or 16%; opponents 23x or 21%

 

Distribution of runs scored in a game looks pretty normal for the Brewers ---Opponents

 

0 - - 5 ----- 7

1 - -10----- 8

2 - -12 --- 11

3 - - 11 --- 15

4 - - 21 --- 9

5 - - 12 - - 14

6 - - 10 --- 13

7 - - 9 --- 7

8 - - 5 ------ 9

9 - - 6 - - - 3

10+ - - 6 ----11

 

The interesting thing from looking at the oppoents runs scored is how do teams fare against an awful pitching staff like the Brewers. Teams look like they get 5 or more runs a lot against the Brewers, or in other words if the starter is struggling most likely 5 or more are going to score, veruse being on and keeping the opponent at 3 or less. The Brewers offense likes to get 4 runs.

 

24 of the 41 times the staff gave up 3 runs or less for the Brewers came in April and May. The staff gave up 6 or more runs just 8 times in April & May, but 22 times in June July and 4 days of August.

 

One final piece

In Wins the Brewers score an average of 6.2 runs, in losses they score 3.2 runs per game. Average overall is 4.67 runs per game

Opponents score an average of 3.1 runs in Brewer wins, and 6.8 runs in Brewer losses.

 

The standard deviation for Brewers runs scored is 3.0

and for opponents it is 3.3.

[RightFieldCoder]

I'd say balance. Lefty/righty balance, OBP/slugging balance. and you can throw in speed/power in a perfect world.

I think this is the biggest problem with the Brewer's offense. (But the biggest problem with the Brewers is pitching, a different thread). Hall, Hart, Hardy, Cameron, McGee, Weeks. All right handed low BA high SLG hitters. All of them can have problems with a RHP that features a fastball/slider combo. If the starter is on his game, none of these guys can get a hit that day. Add in Kendall and the pitcher, and you have no offense that day. Face a pitcher who's off his stuff and we slg for 2.000 for the day. Fans perception is that we aren't consistant. This offense needs another lefty bat or two along with a some hitters to be more OBP dominated to hit in the top of the lineup. Hopefully Weeks keeps up what he was doing before for next year, and add in Gamel.

 

But Melvin should spend his offseason working on getting better pitchers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Distribution of runs scored in a game looks pretty normal

 

Exactly. There's just no sense in complaining about the offense, when they've in fact been superior to almost every NL team.

 

 

Melvin should spend his offseason working on getting better pitchers

 

And all he has to do to get another mighty LH stick in the lineup is tell Macha that Gamel is the 3B, period. Great point on Weeks, too.

[dadofandrew]

Runs are random, but it seems to me the most consistent teams would be the high OBP teams...you are less likely to get held to 2 runs or less the more guys you have reach base safely, right?

[endaround]

Part of this is just my exhasperation with the term "consistent" since its become coach speak for "playing better". If a player goes 3 for 4 a manger will coem out and say he needs to be more consistent in other games. Or that Parra needs to be more consistent other games. No, Parra needs to pitch better not reduce the variation of his outings.

[TooLiveBrew]

Runs are random, but it seems to me the most consistent teams would be the high OBP teams...you are less likely to get held to 2 runs or less the more guys you have reach base safely, right?

 

I'm by no means a math whiz, but in this case it really does seem that simple... which is why the general criticism of Cameron (OBP right about .360 so far this season) always makes me scratch my head.

 

As best I know, BA w/RISP fluctuates quite a bit... so all you can do in building an offense is generate as many opportunities as possible (aka build good OBP).

[igor67]

1) have a great offense. 2) have atleast OK enough pitching to win a lot. 3) Have atleast 1 guy you can point to as a base stealer.

 

All 3 of these are designed to eliminate complaints, which is usually what the consistent offense argument is all about. a close loss right before or after a blow-out win naturally conjures the idea of transfering the runs to have won another game. If you have a great offense it's hard to complain, you become less motivated with fewer losses, and you aren't distracted by Tim Mccarver calling the game on Fox if you havethat base stealing threat at the top he can talk about.

[JJHardy7]

I'm not a huge stat guy, but I still and always will think that a higher batting average is better than a lower batting average. If Cam had the same OBP, but a .300 batting average he'd be awesome. OBP is huge, but I still will never 100% buy into that specific stat as the end all because you move one base on a walk. Ideally IMO, you have a hitter that will hit pitches that are strikes and not swing at balls. There isn't a stat that can properly calculate that. That's a 'consistent' lineup. Guys with lower averages and high OBPs will strikeout more than guys with a higher BA. I know batting average is a thing of the past around here, but I really don't buy that 100%. I think more focus should be placed on the combination of average and OBP. Would you really want a guy hitting .250 with a OBP of .350 over guys that hit at a better rate and still have discipline? I will never get the notion that OBP is everything...Mike Cameron is one of the easiest guys to point out in this. I know this is whole the strikeouts and pitches, etc, etc that most don't want to get into, but the simple answer IMO is hit for a high average and take pitches that are out of the zone. A guy hitting .300 with a .350 obp is a ton better than a guy like Cameron IMO. That guy probably puts the ball in play more and that in itself leads to a greater chance of extra base hits. How often does a pitcher walk 4 guys in an inning? Eventually you have to put the ball in play and that's why BA still does matter to a certain degree. OBP isn't the answer to everything.

[logan82]

Guys with lower averages and high OBPs will strikeout more than guys with a higher BA.

 

What makes you think this? The huge split in BA/OBP only points to guys who walk a lot.

[badgerfletch]

So does the higher average guy then have a higher slugging percentage too? Because I think everyone would agree that obviously the higher avg is better then. It would seem it would be a given in all of the arguments so far.

 

I wonder what the run expected difference would be for a 300/350/500 compared to a 250/350/500 hitter? I would guess the higher ba might make some difference but how much is negated by the relative lack of power in those hits.

[logan82]

So does the higher average guy then have a higher slugging percentage too? Because I think everyone would agree that obviously the higher avg is better then. It would seem it would be a given in all of the arguments so far.

 

I think you are right that most people would agree with that. Looking at any one of the slash stats on their own makes for a very incomplete picture of a player. BA alone ignores walks and power. OBP alone ignores power. SLG alone ignores how often a player makes outs. OPS doesn't properly weigh walks vs singles.

 

I wonder what the run expected difference would be for a 300/350/500 compared to a 250/350/500 hitter? I would guess the higher ba might make some difference but how much is negated by the relative lack of power in those hits.

 

They are pretty much equal hitters. I am sure somebody could give you a much better and detailed explanation. I really don't have the time right now.

[TheCrew07]

My answer will be no surprise as I've posted it before.

 

I think the best way to help even out an offense is to improve the pitching, the less the runs you give up on average, the less runs you need to score. It's the same argument I've been making since the start of last off-season. I think all of the talk about handedness and all that is trying to cure the symptom instead of the disease. I have no idea why we tend to focus so much on the offense when the offense isn't truly the problem.

 

I could probably be sold that the Brewers have too many of the same types of hitters on the team, but I think the handedness and OBP issues will get addressed as the lineup turns over through natural attrition. Many of the Brewer hitters I'm excited about are LH... Gamel, Green, Gindl, Schafer, Dennis... I certainly don't believe moving assets for different position players is a wise decision given the state of the pitching.

 

I know just about every post I've made in the last 16 months has either been offering an opinion on a prospect or hammering away on pitching, but I sincerely believe that pitching has been and will remain the core issue with this team until some top of the rotation talent is infused into the rotation itself or the upper part of the system. FA scrubs and rental players aren't solutions, they are band-aids, they are bailing water on a sinking ship. The team has nearly a quarter of it's payroll tied up in Hall and Suppan, and we will have that same issue next season. Spending more money isn't the answer to any problem we currently have with this team. At some point we're going to have give up some impact position talent to make the team better as a whole, by impact talent I mean anyone with a WAR greater than 4. People need to get past the 1 to 1 offensive comparisons and start seeing the total picture including a more long-term approach... it's entirely possible to downgrade an offensive position but become a better team in the process, because 2 players can be better than 1.

[captkirk16]

It doesn't matter what sport we talk about. If they can't score, they can't win. If you look at the top baseball teams year in and year out, the ones that make the run at the end are the ones that have three top studs. Look at the Giants this year. Couldn't play with the Brewers last year, this year with Linecum, Cain, and whomever (Johnson?) they are blowing away the Brewers with less sticks. By the way, Linecum and Cain came up through the farm.

[homer]

Anyone notice Lucroy's drastic home/away splits? He's got a .934 OPS on the road and a measly .569 at home.

 

Maybe he just needs to get out of Huntsville.

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=518960

[JJHardy7]

What makes you think this? The huge split in BA/OBP only points to guys who walk a lot.

If you're walking a lot, you're taking more pitches and working the count. That's not a bad thing, but I would guess chances are you'll be more prone to strikeouts.

I know OBP is getting more and more common....which is a good thing, but I think some hybrid of average, OBP, and Ks mgiht be a better way to analyze it. For all I know something like that already exists. A player with good plate discipline who can put the ball in play with authority may not have as high of an OBP as a guy that works the count and doesn't always put the ball in play. Strikeouts aren't the end of the world, but I still can't see how Cameron can be considered a 'good' hitter. I know he has common stats that prove that, but he can at times really lack the ability to make contact. To me, that means he'll walk more, but that doesn't make him a better fit for every offense. I hope that all makes sense.

[logan82]

We have been over the strikeout thing numerous times and if you are still focusing on strikeouts I can only conclude that you just don't believe a strikeout is almost identical to any other out. I can understand how it is frustrating to see strikeouts. On a scale of 1-10 a strikeout is probably about an 8 and a DP a 10. A ground out or fly out seems to have at least a little bit of success so they probably seem like a 3. I know a groundout or a flyout seem like more desirable outcomes, and they are in select circumstances. Most of the time, they are the same.

[JJHardy7]

We have been over the strikeout thing numerous times and if you are still focusing on strikeouts I can only conclude that you just don't believe a strikeout is almost identical to any other out. I can understand how it is frustrating to see strikeouts. On a scale of 1-10 a strikeout is probably about an 8 and a DP a 10. A ground out or fly out seems to have at least a little bit of success so they probably seem like a 3. I know a groundout or a flyout seem like more desirable outcomes, and they are in select circumstances. Most of the time, they are the same.

I don't mean to get back in that discussion at all...I know it's been here many times before. I guess I just look at it as an indicator of making contact, but like I said to me there really isn't one end all way to determine how good of a hitter a player is in relation to its fit on a consistent offense. And there are also different types of strikeouts too...guys that just can't make contact on certain pitches, guys that are very patient and work the count, etc. I don't mean to get into that, but I'm trying to say a combination of some sort might be able to determine how to build a 'consistent' offense. Guys that walk at a high rate is one piece of it, but eventually you need guys that can bring them home.

[bklynbrewcrew]

One way to have a more consistent offense is to replace the worst offensive player in baseball (Kendall) with someone competent.

[dadofandrew]

There's no correlation between bad offensive teams and high K teams. However, there is one between OBP (and OPS/OXS) and good offensive teams.

 

As pointed out often, OXS is about 97.5% accurate in predicting runs scored. Things like making contact, baserunning, bunting, "playing the game the right way", and so on is not meaningless...it's about 1/40th of offense, while getting on base and hitting for power is 39/40th's of it. While some choose to worry about "the little things", Ken Macha, myself, and many others choose to concern ourselves with "the big things".

[TooLiveBrew]

One way to have a more consistent offense is to replace the worst offensive player in baseball (Kendall) with someone competent.

 

That would be a very nice first step. Offensively, he's not even 'worthless'. He has negative value. Sadly, I can think of at least three Brewers pitchers I would rather see batting than Kendall.

[endaround]

No the best way to have a more consistent offense is to add more Kendalls. Scoring is right bounded by zero, the closer to zero the scoring average is the less variation and the more consistency!

[Oldcity]

This just makes me think of Joe Morgan's "cosistent." Ah, how I miss FJM.

[greeg35]

No the best way to have a more consistent offense is to add more Kendalls. Scoring is right bounded by zero, the closer to zero the scoring average is the less variation and the more consistency!

Yes, we get it, the word is being used incorrectly.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I got a good laugh from endaround's most recent post.

 

One thing I might add about stealing bases: I'm glad we don't do it very often. The risk of losing a baserunner almost never is worth the extra base unless the success rate of the basestealer is close to perfect. Ken Macha was taught not to steal by Billy Beane, I'm sure.

[RoseBowlMtg]

This has been a great discussion. What I see is teams that make better outs are scraping together runs, which I don't know if there is a stat out there showing the productivity of outs but my guess is all the pop ups the Crew does is not good. If you break it down after a lead off double it is better to ground out to the second baseman instead of flying out to the left fielder. The Brewers team obp is .338 so almost 2/3 of the time they are making outs. More productive outs creates more runs and in baseball with all the stats I'd like to see how productive teams are in their outs since it happens nearly twice as often.