Building the 2010 Brewers: Who do we deal and what/who do we look for?

[nate82]

I would rather sign Escobar or Hudson to a one or two year deal than trade Hardy for Guthrie. If someone like Radames Liz is involved sure but not a straight up trade for Guthrie. Guthrie will be 31 next season and I would rather trade for someone who is a little bit younger than 30 years old. Especially if you are trading Hardy away.

[Never Outhustled]

I would rather sign Escobar or Hudson to a one or two year deal than trade Hardy for Guthrie.

We need more than 1 starter, why not do both? Trading Hardy for Guthrie will lower our payroll and make that easier.

[nate82]

We need more than 1 starter, why not do both? Trading Hardy for Guthrie will lower our payroll and make that easier.

If the Brewers could get a high ceiling given up on pitcher along with Guthrie I could go with that. I don't see the Brewers having the depth problems they had this year next year though with Butler, Jones, Rogers, and possibly Capuano as the #6,7,8, and 9th starters. The Brewers also have Suppan who can fill in as the #5 starter. Depth won't be the Brewers problem next year it will be finding a good #1 or #2 pitcher. Guthrie probably would project as a #3 which would be fine I guess in the rotation.

 

Hudson/Escobar, Gallardo, Guthrie, Bush, and Parra would probably be as good as the Phillies 2008 and 2009 rotation (2009 before Lee was added). I'm just hoping that the bullpen won't suffer because of this. If there is no money left to retain Hoffman then Coffey, Villanueva, or ????? would be replacing Hoffman as the closer.

 

I imagine the Brewers roster next year looking like this:

C: Rivera, Lucroy

1B: Prince

2B: Weeks,

SS: Escobar

3B: Gamel

Util: McGehee, Lopez/Heether, Counsell

OF: Hart

OF: Cameron

OF: Braun

OF: Gerut

 

Starters:

Escobar, Gallardo, Hardy trade, Bush, Parra

 

Bullpen

LRP: Suppan

RP: Villanueva, Coffey, Stetter, Narveson, DiFelice, Hoffman

 

AAA

6th starter Butler, 7th starter Jones, 8th starter Rogers, 9th starter Capuano.

 

The only question marks I have is if the Brewers bring back Kendall instead of Cameron. Kendall should cost less but Cameron brings more value to the Brewers. The Brewers will still be on the hook for at least $6 million of Hall's contract in 2010. I really wish Melvin would get creative and trade Suppan for Meche maybe the GM in KC is really that dumb and would do something like that though it would make sense for the Royals to do this trade because they would be saving $9.5m if they do the buyout after the 2010 season. The only other problem I see with next years team assuming the Brewers can get a trade for Hardy and pick up a free agent pitcher is how well Escobar, Gamel, and McGehee will do next year along with Weeks. If Weeks isn't able to go right away in the season you could see McGehee playing sometime with Counsell at 2B next year. I don't think the Brewers will be able to get a platoon partner with Counsell for next year and get starting pitching in free agency.

[TheCrew07]

Cappy is only hitting 83, 84 with his fastball. I wouldn't count on him as a starter depth unless he can gain some velocity back. He can get hitters out in the low minors by locating his off speed effectively, but it will be a different story as he moves up. Cody is more likely to be depth than Cappy, he'll be back in AAA next season and is a similar pitcher at this point.

[Hate those Rodents]

It'd be great to get Guthrie and another pitcher for Hardy. I agree with others on selling high on McGehee as well. I think we are overloaded with IF options and need badly to get a good pitcher/prospect for him and start Gamel.

[JohnBriggs12]

It'd be great to get Guthrie and another pitcher for Hardy. I agree with others on selling high on McGehee as well. I think we are overloaded with IF options and need badly to get a good pitcher/prospect for him and start Gamel.

 

If they trade McGehee this offseason, they aren't "selling high". Teams are going to discount the stats of a 26 year old rookie in 300 AB's. Now if McGehee puts up solid stats again in 2010, his value goes up exponentially because he will have validated his 09 season but even if he doesn't and say hits .260/.320/.400, he'll still retain most of his current value. He would have to fall off into Hall territory to significantly reduce his value from where it currently is.

 

As an example, think Ryan Ludwick. He showed the first signs of being a solid player in 2007 after hitting .267/.339/.479 with 14 HR. But he still could have been had cheaply in a deal because he still wasn't viewed as an everyday corner OF. When he had an outstanding 08, he became a very marketable valuable piece but there remained plenty of skepticism. Even though his 09 numbers have slipped some, his trade value is just as high because his numbers are solid enough to validate him as a productive everyday player, something there was some uncertainty even after 2009.

 

There's still plenty of uncertainty that McGehee is a productive everyday player so teams aren't going to give back the value of a productive everyday player.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think the key difference though is team vs. teams. ONE team will most likely buy high on McGehee. I may be wrong here, but I think ONE team will do that, and it's up to Doug to find that team. I do agree that most will want to see it over a longer period of time.

[NievesNoNO]

I do like the idea of Guthrie for Hardy.

 

I know prospect for prospect deals don't happen too often, but I'd try to ship our top two prospects to the West coast for some top level pitching prospects. Gamel or Escobar to San Francisco for Bumgarner and Gamel or Escobar to Oakland for Cahill or Brett Anderson. Next, back up the truck for Fielder and stick him with Braun for the forseeable future. Sign Brett Myers.

 

A rotation of Gallardo, Myers, Cahill, Parra, and Bumgarner looks nice to me. Six others with Fielder and Braun will always be respectable.

[piccione88]

I see absolutley no way the Giants would even considering giving up Bumgarner for Gamel, or Escobar. Yes they need hitting, but Bumgarner looks like a future ace, teams just do not give up that kind of a player unless they are blown away.

[trwi7]

Bumgarner was entirely unimpressive in his start last night. Staying in the high 80s and topping out at 90.

[marty22]

X ellence wrote:

 

I'd also be willing to throw in a minor leaguer if they threw in Radames Liz. He was once a big time prospect, but was rushed to the majors and fell apart. Similar story and stuff as Edwin Jackson. I want the next Edwin Jackson, whoever his is.

 

Count me in X. A 3.86 FIP MLE this year in about 100 MiLB innings? He's still only 26. Obviously everyone wants the next Jackson, its just so hard to find. I think Liz is a good candidate for the reasons you stated. A whole thread about the next Jackson could be fun...

 

 

EDIT: His walk rate was down under 3 this year, too. It's gone down consistently over the last 3-4 years

[804Sox]

Don't think Liz is a good Comp for Jackson. I'm young, but Edwin was one of THE most hyped pitching prospects I can remember, and he broke into the majors at a really young age. I guess "next Edwin Jackson"s to target would be like Phil Hughes or David Price or Clayton Kershaw or Clay Buchholz if their teams ever gave up on them. Maybe even Chris Volstad or Homer Bailey, but I'm hesitant to include Bailey because i've never seen why people think he'd be a good baseball player.

 

Similar situation is Edinson Volquez. Seems like it's always the guys with amazing stuff but early career control issues that you should never give up on. (and, on the other side of the coin, pursue). In this case maybe Jonathan Sanchez is a guy, but he doesn't have the same kind of pedigree as the others, despite the no-hitter.

[nate82]

I just did some quick math and looked at the roster and looked at Cot's site. If the Brewers resign all of their players minus Weathers and Kendall and if the Brewers trade Hardy away for a minor league player the Brewers have a salary of $74.13m next year. I just assumed about a 45% increase in player wages in arbitration. I also assumed Cameron would come back for $7m which is probably a low amount but even with an increase to 9 or 10m it will be just over 80m with Weathers buyout and Halls contract that the Brewers have to pay for. I am also assuming Hoffman resigns for about $10m.

 

So that would leave about 7-10m worth for a free agent signing. Assuming that the Brewers do not pick up Looper's option that means the Brewers will owe him 1M. That would bring the team salary to about 75.53m. Now I am not counting all the players on the 40 man for next year because I am way to tired to do that and I'm missing one or two players who would be on the 25 man also 3 if the Brewers don't pick up Looper's option.

 

Without Looper's contract the Brewers would have about 12-15m available for a free agent. The other 2 spots would be taken up by small contracts in the 400k - 500k range. If the Brewers get Guthrie he would be owed about 1.5m after arbitration. So subtract about 2m from the available funds for a free agent. I believe the Brewers could get Escobar on a 1 - 2 year deal for 10-12m a year maybe even less if the free agency market is as bad as it was last year. If not I wouldn't mind if the Brewers went 15m 4 years for Harden which wouldn't be all that bad just very risky for the Brewers to do. Hudson could also be had around the 8-10m mark for one year. The Braves are going to buyout Hudson's contract.

 

The Brewers should have some flexibility next year in terms of free agent dollars available. I just hope Melvin doesn't do something like the Harden deal and just does another Looper deal with Hudson or Escobar.

[JohnBriggs12]

nate82,

 

In Michael Hunt's column yesterday, Melvin regretted not being aggressive enough in addressing starting pitching. It was hinted that he would forsake spending anywhere else to upgrade the rotation. To me that means they won't bring back Cameron, Kendall, Hoffman and/or Weathers or Looper and they will have lot more to spend than you suggest. The crux of the article was that everything is based on starting pitching and he'll fill in a lineup around Braun and Fielder the best he can.

 

Pineiro has to be a top priority because his signing does more to close the huge gap between the Brewers and the Cardinals than any other pitcher. You are taking away one of the Cardinals Big 3 and adding him to the Brewers. Yes, he's had a career year and you are going to have to maybe overpay him. But it's not like he hasn't had really good years before this one or that he's gotten by with marginal stuff like a Suppan or a Looper. His year this year surpassed anything either of those guys did.

 

I now expect the Brewers to try to add 3 starting pitchers. One will be a fairly high priced FA like a Pineiro or a Washburn who's coming off a good year and would clearly go into 2010 as the number 2 guy. The second will be the type you mentioned nate, though I think Hudson will be in pretty high demand and might fill the bill of the first category. The 3rd is a young pitcher that they get in a deal involving Hardy. That guy is probably not going to be the high ceiling guy, but a guy who's capable of competing with Bush for a rotation spot.

 

If they can accomplish this, then I see them moving Suppan to the pen. Suppan's best opportunity of extending his career is to become a reliever. It might help him gain a little zip on his fastball which makes his other pitches better.

 

As for Parra, I think a big problem for him was the completely unrealistic expectation that he could be a number 2 starter this year. I think if he's clearly the 4th or 5th starter gong into 2010, it will relieve a lot of self induced pressure he seemed to put on himself at the start of this year.

[cwolf2012]

If we sign Pineiro, I'm going to be really upset (unless it's really cheap). Signing people at peak value is absolutely not the right play. We did it with Suppan, we did it with Hall, and we can not afford to do it again. Pineiro is not as good as his numbers this year.

 

Who is arby-eligible for the Marlins? Nolasco reached it yet? He might be a target. I'm not certain what the team needs, but McGehee can play both 2B and 3B, and those may be organizational needs with Uggla due for a raise.

[nate82]

Piniero and Washburn are not players Melvin should be targeting. Washburn = Suppan no way would I even think about signing Washburn. Just last year he had a horrible year pitching for the Mariners in a pitchers ballpark and now this year he has a great year? I'm not buying it and whoever ends up with Washburn will have another Suppan a good #5 pitcher just not what the Brewers need. Piniero I would take him if he was going to be the #4 or #5 starter in the rotation but thats about it. I would rather see the Cardinals overpay for him and lose Holliday in the process.

 

Melvin is probably going to go after these two players hard in the offseason Harden and Lackey. I would rather see Melvin go after Harden hard since Harden is still youngish yet. Both have their injury concerns. If it was between Washburn and Piniero I would take Piniero though.

 

Hoffman is going to be back next year. I don't see Melvin passing on that especially with what it could do to the bullpen Melvin knows he needs a good bullpen as much as he needs a good starting rotation. Hoffman is a no brainer to retain because the Brewers don't really have someone who can be an effective closer. Villanueva and Coffey would be your closer if Hoffman is not retained.

 

I could see Melvin passing on Cameron if it costs to much but if he can not get the pitcher he wants then I could see Cameron coming back for another year. If the Brewers could sign Harden away from the Cubs oh man would that be great. Harden and Gallardo at the top of the rotation would be a start of a great rotation for the Brewers. Looper will be gone I believe and I actually believe Looper will decline the option. Yes I know he is guaranteed to get $6m but agents and players have done dumber things in the past when looking at free agency.

 

Hudson would be a great #3 for the Brewers but that would come at the expense of Cameron and you would have to expect Hudson to be able to go through a season without getting injured is a rather risky strategy. Same can be said about Escobar and even Harden. The Brewers have enough room to work in with the budget and I believe the available funds for Melvin to get something done will be increased. The Brewers have a $80m payroll this year I could see that going up to $85-90m but that would be the absolute maximum that it could go to I believe. If at $90m I doubt the Brewers would have enough room to add anyone in a trade at the trade deadline though so it would be what the Brewers have is what they will have.

 

Getting a #1 or #2 in Harden, Escobar, or Hudson is what the Brewers need to do this offseason. I believe the Brewers could get one of those three it is just how much are the Brewers willing to spend for either one of those three. Harden probably has the biggest upside and will cost more but he also has the most concern injury wise of the three. Escobar and Hudson are older and would cost less than Harden but not by much in terms of years both Escobar and Hudson would cost less than Harden more so Hudson than Escobar though.

 

I could see Melvin giving Hudson a Looper type of a contract or a Gagne like contract. Overpaying in dollars but not years in the Gagne like contract and in the Looper contract overpaying for the second year. If Melvin could get Hudson on a Looper like contract it maybe the best signing in the whole offseason.

 

As for Harden and the Cubs I'm not sure the Cubs will be able to resign Harden. The Cubs may have to decide on Lilly or Harden. Lilly is a free agent after next season and he will be asking for a deal like Zambrano's or Harden's deal. It will be around the $15-18m a year range for about 5 or 6 years. Is Lilly really worth that? probably not but you know if he has another great season next year it is going to cost the Cubs and are the Cubs really going to let one of their best pitchers go?

 

There is a lot of options for the Brewers this offseason the cupboard is not bare for free agent pitching this offseason as some has speculated yes the big names are not out there but there is a lot of quality arms available. You have Escobar, Harden, Lackey, Hudson, Davis, Piniero, and then after those guys you start to get into your #5 type of pitchers. You even have question marks in Sheets and Bedard. Sheets isn't anymore of a question mark as Escobar as is. Sheets has at least pitched last year Escobar hasn't pitched since 2007 and he has only pitched 5 innings before being put back on the DL. The greatest risk this year is Bedard so Sheets may actually find a home on a one year deal with an option for a second with a lot of incentives on innings pitched.

[piccione88]

If I was Melvin this is what I would try to do.

New Contracts:

Counsell 1 year/2 mil, Cameron 1 year/8.5m+ 2.5 in incentives, H.Blanco 1/1.5, Hoffman 1/7m+ 1.5 incentives, plus a couple scrap heap relievers.

Trades:

Hardy to the orioles for, Guthrie, and Liz

McGehee, and a mid-level prospect to the A's for D.Braden

Non-tender: McClung, and I am assuming that Looper declines his option

 

So my roster would look something like this

C) H.Blanco, 1B)P.Fielder 2B) R.Weeks 3B)M.Gamel SS)A.Escobar LF)R.Braun CF)M.Cameron RF)C.Hart

IF)C.Counsell(soft platoon at shortstop) OF)J.Gerut UT)A.Heether(although this does not seem likely) 2B/OF)H.Iribarren/minor league free agent C)M.Rivera

Rotation:

1)Y.Gallardo 2)J.Guthrie 3)D.Braden 4)J.Suppan 5)D.Bush

The only locks for the bullpen in my opinion are Coffey,and Hoffman if hes re-signed, Stetter, and Villanueva are probably safe bets as well.

 

This roster would cost roughly 79 million after you factor in the 7 million owed Hall, and the 4.5 owed to Riske.

[Invader3K]

Washburn was hurt recently. I don't know if that's someone to even consider acquiring at this point, especially with how bad he's been since going to Detroit.

[craigharmann]

Just a crazy thought and I don't know if it has been mentioned before, but what about letting Hoffman walk and using Looper as a closer. He's had success as a closer before, and is mediocre as a starter. Package together a combination of Gamel, Hart and Hardy and see if you can get a couple of young pitchers with upside and fill the rotation that way.

[Invader3K]

I'm sorry, I hate that idea. I don't think Looper has the "stuff" to be a consistently effective closer like Hoffman. We'd probably be searching for a replacement closer at the trade deadline because Looper would be blowing too many saves due to all the home runs he gives up. Plus Hoffman shouldn't cost much more than Looper's $6.5 million next year.

[brewmann04]

You know Looper has given up the most Home Runs as a Starter and sorry that is not Closer material. Hoofman should be resigned for next year.

I would look to trade Hart Hardy and weeks even though he was hurt all season and look to keep Lopez.

[Never Outhustled]

Piccione88, I'm completely on board with your plan, its very realistic. My only addition would depend on the budget. I'd think with our attendance our payroll would slide up into the mid 80s. If that is possible, then I'd non-tender Dave Bush and add Tim Hudson. Hudson would be a sifnificant upgrade over Bush, and obviously would also cost about double. I'd also non-tender McClung to save money.

[LouisEly]

Guthrie will be 31 next season and I would rather trade for someone who is a little bit younger than 30 years old.

 

Yes, but to get someone under 30 will cost a lot. To get something of value you have to give up something of value.

 

The thing with signing guys who are an injury risk is that you can get insurance on their contracts. That way the financial impact if they do get hurt is negligible. So offering 4/$48M to Harden doesn't scare me because they can protect themselves from injury. They can't insure against crappyness.

 

The best trade matchup I see is with the Marlins. They have a need at 3B and the Brewers have a surplus of infielders, including McGehee who will be cheap for three more years which might really appeal to the Marlins. I believe Nolasco is due arby and they might not want to pay him considering they have other replacements. Some package of McGehee plus a couple of A-ball arms would probably have a lot of value to the Marlins. I don't see the Marlins bringing back both Jorge Cantu ($3.5M) and Nick Johnson ($5.5M), so a $400K replacement in McGehee might be appealing.

[Hate those Rodents]

He's not really an "old" 30 either. I believe we'd get him for three more years at a nice enough salary to be able to go get a Harden/Lackey type as our only expensive free agent addition. Mark A will pony up for one of them. I am thinking Harden will be the guy. Gallardo, Harden, Guthrie, Bush, Parra with Suppan as the long man/sixth starter will be enough to get us back into the playoff conversation next year. Git 'er dun Doug.

[pingman]

the Braves beat writers have stated on more than one occasion that the Braves plan to pick up Hudson's option.....