Building the 2010 Brewers: Who do we deal and what/who do we look for?

[Never Outhustled]

We can trade guys like Hart or McGehee for pitching too. If we trade for young guys instead of established guys, we might hit on a guy on the rise.

 

We have to copy deals like Edgar Rentaria for Jair Jurrjens or Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson. A deal like either of those makes us dramitically better. The position players we have to offer are just as valuable, if not more, than those 2 position players were.

[paul253]

I actually wouldn't mind holding onto McGehee. I think having him and Adam Heether as the two backups would be the best options there, with an infield of Gamel, Escobar, Weeks, and Fielder. Very solid infield. Something will have to be done with the outfield, whether it be keeping it the same, trading Hart, or whatever. Either way we will need a few backups out there as well. The key is pitching. I would love to see Jones or Butler get that 5th spot, but that may be pushing it a bit. Is there any chance McGehee can play outfield? Maybe trade Hart and slide McGehee to the outfield.

[nate82]

McGehee could play LF if you put him in RF that wouldn't be a very wise idea. I would rather have Lopez play RF (he doesn't have the arm for it though) or have McGehee play multiple positions like DeRosa who I believe McGehee relates to very well. McGehee is definitely better defensively than DeRosa though.

 

McGehee might be the best trade candidate for a pitcher though. But if the Brewers can get someone like an Edwin Jackson for Hardy I would be ecstatic the Brewers would then only have to pick one pitcher out of the free agency scrap heaps (Kelvim Escobar, Ben Sheets, Jon Lackey, etc.). Sheets is probably not a good possibility but I wouldn't mind getting Escobar and putting him in the #1 or #2 slot in the rotation the same with Sheets. Bedard might be a good buy low candidate but I am worried about his injury and if he will even pitch next year.

 

I wonder if the Rays are still interested in moving Kazmir. A Hart and Hardy trade for Kazmir might work that would also allow the Rays to trade Crawford away for some more pitching help if they need it or for some more positional players. If the Brewers go this route I doubt they would sign anyone in free agency unless it would be cheap someone like Bedard who will have injury concerns.

 

If the Brewers get a cheap young player an Escobar or Lackey could be signed though I highly doubt the Brewers would be able to get Lackey they would have to do another Suppan like deal to get Lackey and that is not a smart move for the Brewers to do. Escobar should come cheaper and the Brewers should only have to over pay in dollars and not years for Escobar unless the Angels or some other team gets real stupid and offers him 5-6 year for $12m+ a year then it just wouldn't be worth it.

[nate82]

I don't think it is reasonable to exclude 3bs altogether in your "power" argument -- I realize you claim they are lucky, but I think (perhaps) the only thing that is lucky is the extra base from 2b-3b. In almost all cases a 3b is a very well hit ball -- maybe an extra carom allows the runner to get from 2nd to 3rd -- but to exclude 3bs as factor altogether is very very flawed -- I think you are excluding them to help your argument.

I wasn't excluding them I was just saying that power is just not home runs it includes both home runs and doubles in slugging. The luck part in a triple is that it can only happen in certain spots in the OF.

 

For example have you ever seen a triple happen down the LF line without it hitting something or a fielder making a bad play on the ball? Triples are very luck based that doesn't mean some players are not able to overcome this luck Jose Reyes is the only player I can think of right now who could hit triples that would normally be doubles. Everyone else needs the ball to hit off a wall or for a fielder to make a bad play on the ball. Perfect example of this is Cameron's triple on Tuesday night the CF played the ball poorly by miss timing his jump the ball bounced off the wall and Cameron was able to reach 3B. If the CF would have played the ball off the wall it is a double or if the CF jumps at the right time it is probably an out.

 

Not all triples are luck based but the majority of them are. I wasn't excluding them I was looking at them when I said even with all the extra base hits that Morgan has hit they are just 1 more than the total doubles Cameron has hit. After todays game Cameron has 25 doubles and Morgan has a total of 25 extra base hits. That is a lot of missing production.

[southpaw121505]

We have to copy deals like Edgar Rentaria for Jair Jurrjens or Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson. A deal like either of those makes us dramitically better. The position players we have to offer are just as valuable, if not more, than those 2 position players were.

Absolutely, I'd make 3 separate moves similar to those and hope for the best. I'm looking for 3 young arms, at least one being a rotation candidate next year if not 2. Hardy, Hart, and McGehee. I like all 3 guys but we need pitching more and have the offense to fill in the gaps. Lopez is kept. Weeks to RF(or even Gamel). Cameron is kept for a year. I'm either signing a full time catcher or one to split with Rivera. I think that is a good offense with 3 new arms, it just depends what we can get back in those 3 moves.

 

One team off the top of my head that makes sense as a trade partner would be Baltimore. They have some arms that are close and could use any of those guys. Maybe they would want Hardy and McGehee. Mora expires and Izturis only has one year left at 2.6. Both ops under 650.

[TooLiveBrew]

Excellent idea on BAL, southpaw. I just have no familiarity with the O's minor league system, so I don't know which young arms might be in play.

 

For those ignorant like me, here is BA's top 10 prospects list for the O's. Keep in mind this is from the past offseason, but the rankings for pitchers shook out like this:

 

2) RHP Chris Tillman (came from SEA in the Bedard deal)

3) LHP Brian Matusz ("best curveball" & "best changeup" in the system)

4) RHP Jake Arrieta

6) RHP Brandon Erbe

8) LHP Troy Patton

10) RHP Kam Mickolio ("best fastball" in the system)

 

Weiters was still listed as the #1 prospect, so barring injury or regression, you can probably just bump each ranking there up by one.

[Never Outhustled]

Along with those young pitchers TLB mentions, Baltimore also has promoted a few more pitching prospects from just outside of their top 10 this year who have had MLB success. Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez have been good. Bergeson has a great ERA, though there might be some luck involved there, Hernandez actually has the better stuff of the 2.

[derflotr]

Let me get this straight right out of the gate - I really like Mike Cameron. He's obviously fantastic defensively and he's got good power for a CF, not to mention he's become a leader on the team. The Cameron bashing (mainly on radio) really bothers me, the guy is a class act.

 

 

 

But I'm wondering how large of a dropoff it would be from Cameron to a guy like Gerut - I don't know the defensive metrics on Gerut in CF, but if he isn't an adequate CF I'd discard this idea entirely. I think pretty much every player benefits from more ABs and perhaps I'm overestimating him based on his 2008 season but I think he can put up a .270/.340 kind of line with an everyday job.

 

 

I just feel like if Weeks comes back strong you're looking at - Weeks, Escobar/Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Cameron, Gamel/McGehee, Hart, and whoever's catching. Take out Cameron and I still think that lineup could be pretty potent. What I'm getting at is if they can use the 10 mil+ he'll get in arbitration to bring in better pitching I'd think the Brewers would want to consider taking advantage of that opportunity. You could argue that acquiring pitching through free agency is a bit of a crapshoot, but most of the Brewers' pitching depth is in A ball and I just don't see anyone from within they haven't tried who they could be confident in trotting out there every 5th day in 2010.

 

 

 

If they can use that money to improve the pitching staff (though Mike Cameron by himself improves the pitching staff) isn't it worth releasing Cameron, taking the draft pick, and bolstering the starting rotation? It's not like they'd be spending all 10+ million on one pitcher either - you can fill a few holes or pick up a few raises in arbitration with 10-12 million bucks.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think pretty much every player benefits from more ABs and perhaps I'm overestimating him based on his 2008 season but I think he can put up a .270/.340 kind of line with an everyday job.

 

No, I agree with that completely. I think one reason why Melvin added Gerut is that he is a heck of a lot better than most replacements we could easily find for Cam. I don't think Gerut would be close to Cameron in terms of defense, but he probably wouldn't be a huge dropoff on offense.

[Never Outhustled]

The problem I have with spending CAmeron's money on pitching is a $10 million pitcher will require a multi-year deal, possibly as long as 4 years. Thats incredibly risky. Cameron will likely be about 4 WAR, pitchers of that caliber get even more than $10 milliom.

 

I would be OK with going with Gerut in RF and trading Hart for a pitcher.

[BrewCrewForever]

How has Lopez played on defense in the OF over his career? Perhaps resign him and have him play LF? Move Braun to RF and have Hart in CF, or if you trade Hart sign/trade for a different CF? If Lopez could play LF okay this would be my lineup, I just really like Lopez and would love to keep him. But I don't want to move Weeks of 2B.

 

1. Escobar- SS

2. Lopez- LF

3. Braun- RF

4. Fielder- 1B

5. Weeks- 2B

6. Gamel- 3B

7. Hart- CF

8. (Whoever the Catcher is, not Kendall)

9. Pitcher

 

Bench: Counsell, McGehee, Rivera, Catalanotto, Gerut

[logan82]

Move Braun to RF and have Hart in CF

 

No, and no. Braun is pretty brutal in LF. Hart is barely average in RF. It would be a bad idea to move either to a harder defensive position.

[BrewCrewForever]

Move Braun to RF and have Hart in CF

 

No, and no. Braun is pretty brutal in LF. Hart is barely average in RF. It would be a bad idea to move either to a harder defensive position.

Why is Braun brutal? Because he badly misplayed one ball this season?

[logan82]

He is below average for a LF. LF has so many bad players even being a good LF means you are probably average at best in the outfield. He has misplayed more than one ball. If he had shown some improvement in the outfield I would say move him to right. As it is, his UZR/150 is lower than last year. It isn't so much lower that it can't be considered equal to last year. I would have expected him to be a positive fielder or at the very least show some improvement this year. He hasn't.

[BrewCrewForever]

He is below average for a LF. LF has so many bad players even being a good LF means you are probably average at best in the outfield. He has misplayed more than one ball. If he had shown some improvement in the outfield I would say move him to right. As it is, his UZR/150 is lower than last year. It isn't so much lower that it can't be considered equal to last year. I would have expected him to be a positive fielder or at the very least show some improvement this year. He hasn't.

From what I have seen he seems alright. I think he could handle right. Just curious, what do you want the starting 2010 lineup to be? Do you want to see the Crew bring back Lopez?

[brewdude15]

I think Braun is doing just fine in the outfield. He didn't make an error all of last season for a reason...

[TooLiveBrew]

Errors are not a good way to evaluate players, esp. OF. That brutal play BCin04 referenced in the Pirates game? Not an error. OF are almost never charged with errors. Braun is a bad OF because he still doesn't get good reads on that ball. He takes poor routes in far too many instances to even be considered average.

[MNBrew]

How has Lopez played on defense in the OF over his career? Perhaps resign him and have him play LF?

Lopez is a career IF who played a small handful of games in the OF last year. While I'd really like to see him back as a Brewer next year, personally I don't care for the idea of trying to turn him into an OF at all.

[piccione88]

If I was Doug Melvin the first thing I would do is try to work out a deal with Cameron, he is older and supposedly likes it here, both of those factors mean that he is likely to be a bargain. I would also bring back Counsell, as long as he does not cost more than 1.5 guaranteed on a one year deal. Another player I would bring back is Mike Rivera, who is due for his first arbitration

As far as free agency I would go after a catcher to go with Rivera,and a a low-risk, high-reward starter, my personal favorite is Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer was injured all of this year so he should be relativley cheap. Duchscherer had a great 2008 season 141.2 IP with a 2.54 ERA, and good periphals. Before 2008 he was a very good reliever, so he could always pitch out of the pen, if he doesnt make the rotation. Duschserer alone, however will not fix the rotation.

I would like to see the Brewers package Hardy, and McGehee for a young starter with potential. Someone like Ricky Nolasco, Clay Bucholz, or Jonathan Sanchez. Other than those moves I would like to see the Brewers give a few hard throwing relievers a shot and see who sticks.

[nate82]

I wonder if a McGehee and Hardy trade to the Orioles for Arrieta and a PTBNL could be a possibility. The Orioles need a SS and a 3B and the Orioles have been looking to acquire Hardy and with Hardy's value down right now the Brewers would have to add in someone like McGehee or Hart in order to get a good pitching prospect in return. McGehee makes more sense than Hart since the Orioles already have Pie, Jones, and Markakis in the OF. While Pie is not the greatest player he is still very serviceable for the Orioles and has more service time available than Hart does.

 

I believe this is a fair deal for the Orioles getting a MLB SS who is still probably in the top 10 of all MLB SS in the games right now and McGehee who will be a cheap option at 3B for the next couple of years.

[piccione88]

In my opinion that is not the right type of deal for either the Orioles, or the Brewers. 2010 is probably Fielder's last year, so in my opinion the Brewers should make a run at it next year. Trading your two of your best trade chips for Arrieta, who probably will not be up until mid-season 2010, possibly not until 2011, will not help us next year. The Orioles on the other hand are a few years away from contending. Their best chance of being a force in the East is to hang onto Tillman, Matusz, Erbe, and Arrieta. Trading Arrieta who has arguably the highest ceiling of those four, for Hardy, and McGehee does not help them much in 3 years.

[nate82]

In my opinion that is not the right type of deal for either the Orioles, or the Brewers. 2010 is probably Fielder's last year, so in my opinion the Brewers should make a run at it next year. Trading your two of your best trade chips for Arrieta, who probably will not be up until mid-season 2010, possibly not until 2011, will not help us next year. The Orioles on the other hand are a few years away from contending. Their best chance of being a force in the East is to hang onto Tillman, Matusz, Erbe, and Arrieta. Trading Arrieta who has arguably the highest ceiling of those four, for Hardy, and McGehee does not help them much in 3 years.

Fielder will be around beyond 2010 unless the Brewers are completely out of it in 2010 and a can't miss trade comes around for Fielder. Otherwise Fielder will be here until the 2011 trade deadline. 2011 is Fielder's last year before free agency.

 

It does help Baltimore in three years. McGehee will still be there and I'm assuming Hardy will sign a deal to be there beyond the 2012 season. Remember Hardy has two more years before he is a free agent. Hardy and McGehee help the Orioles be competitive for the next immediate 3 years and improves their 2010 team by a lot while only having to give up one good pitching prospect. The Orioles would jump all over that deal. 2010 is probably not the year the Brewers will be contending. It will be in 2011 the last year that Fielder will be with the Brewers that the Brewers will be able to make the playoffs again. I just do not see the Brewers competing next year unless they get a #1 or #2 type starter and there is no one available for the Brewers to get for 2010.

[piccione88]

I really do not see the Brewers being content with just getting two picks from Fielder after the 2011 season, thats why I say that 2010 is PROBABLY his last season. Either way that deal most likely will not help us much next season. Do not get me wrong, I would love have Arrieta in our system, he is a good prospect with ace potential. I just think that the Brewers would be better served going after a pitcher that will be starting for us at the start of next season.

[nate82]

I just think that the Brewers would be better served going after a pitcher that will be starting for us at the start of next season.

But there is no one really available for the Brewers to get. The only ones who would be available to the Brewers are Lackey, Escobar, and Bedard. All three have their warts some of them bigger than others. I don't see who the Brewers could trade for someone that will be in the top of the rotation for the Brewers in 2010. The Brewers will hold onto Fielder for the next two years because they will probably not get the value they are looking for that will be better than the two picks they would receive.

 

I just don't see the Brewers trading Fielder unless a can't miss trade comes the Brewers way and I just do not see a team doing a Teixeira or Miguel Cabrera type of a trade for Fielder which is what the Brewers will be looking for. I just don't see any teams giving up that much for Fielder right now.

 

2010 will be another downish year for the Brewers with 2011 being a year where the Brewers make it back to the playoffs. There just won't be the pitching the Brewers will need to get over the hump in 2010 for the players the Brewers are willing to trade. Hardy alone will not get you a top flight pitcher and neither will Hardy and McGehee/Hart. If you trade Fielder you are also looking at 2011 being the year you will be competing for a playoff spot. I just don't see any pitching available that the Brewers will be able to acquire that will help for 2010 there just isn't any out there.

 

You could get Halladay but that is going to cost Gamel/Escobar plus more. I don't see Melvin trading Escobar or Gamel for anything really maybe Gamel/Escobar for someone like Bumgarner but thats about it.

 

The only way the Brewers are going to be able to improve the rotation in 2010 is through free agency. Maybe Lackey will be available for the Brewers to pick up or Harden or Escobar.

[Never Outhustled]

The most logical deal with Baltimore is Hardy for Guthrie. Both have had down years, but Guthrie is finishing strong. He had ERA under 4 in the AL east in both 2007 and 2008. Thats very impressive. Hardy is a little more WAR each year than Guthrie, but we'd control Guthrie a 3 years, as opposed to 2 for Hardy.

 

Hardy didn't make sense for Baltimore when he was a rental, but now that he's controlled for 2 years he makes sense, and they'd have more leverage if they wanted to extend him.

 

I'd also be willing to throw in a minor leaguer if they threw in Radames Liz. He was once a big time prospect, but was rushed to the majors and fell apart. Similar story and stuff as Edwin Jackson. I want the next Edwin Jackson, whoever his is.