Building the 2010 Brewers: Who do we deal and what/who do we look for?

[Hate those Rodents]

Well, many want to try and "sell high" on McGehee. I am sure Lopez could play all over the diamond and get his 400-500 AB's, especially if we start Gamel and Escobar next season. Lopez can play well enough at 3B and SS to get some time there, correct? I know we haven't seen it, as he's been the second baseman everyday.

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers are dead last in stolen bases, 6th in all of baseball in strikeouts, and 15th in batting average.

And yet we are 3rd in the NL in Runs/game. Why, because we're 3rd in team OPS. Why aren't we 1st? Simply because 2 teams have significantly higher team OPS. Stolen Bases, Ks, and batting average are not useful stats. If we K'd 200 times less this year, we'd still be 3rd in runs/game, as that would only equate to 2 more runs for the season.

 

 

Meanwhile, they are 10th in home runs (3rd in the NL) so I think they could spare a little of the all or nothing type offense they seem to have for someone who's going to be more likely to get on base.

Actually, the evidence strongly suggests hitting fewer HRs makes an offense more inconsistent.

 

 

Just because Cameron hits more home runs does not provide any evidence we will score more runs.

You are correct. However, the fact that Cameron will likely have an OPS somewhat significantly higher than Morgan does suggest Cameron would produce more runs.

 

I also think your putting alot of eggs in one basket for a guy whose career was extremely uninspiring outside of a couple of red hot months since he got to Washington.

[endaround]

Cameron's batting runs are 10.8 above replacement while Morgan's are 4.5. And right when Gallardo gets expensive so does Morgan and you're ignoring the huge cost of acquiring Morgan. It would take at least one solid prospect. Unless you believe Morgan really is the greatest defensive CFer of all time and not that UZR is spitting out an outlier it makes no sense.

[paul253]

You are correct. However, the fact that Cameron will likely have an OPS somewhat significantly higher than Morgan does suggest Cameron would produce more runs.

 

I don't know. When looking at OPS, the player with the higher slugging % is 9 times out of 10 going to have a higher OPS. Looking at the Brewers, only Jason Kendall has a higher OBP than slugging %. So that is basically saying that whoever has more homeruns is a more valuable, which I don't believe it true in all cases. In the long run, it doesnt matter if you score 6 runs on 6 solo home runs or on a bunch of singles and doubles, but I think its more likely that you're going to score 6 runs with singles and doubles. Ideally, it'd be nice to have a balance, which I think is more likely than either to produce the runs.

[TooLiveBrew]

So that is basically saying that whoever has more homeruns is a more valuable

 

Not at all. SLG is a product of total bases, not HRs.

 

 

I think its more likely that you're going to score 6 runs with singles and doubles

 

I think you'd be pretty surprised if you looked into that more. There was a great thread on offensive consistency a month or so back, and if you looked back on pages 3 or 4 or so of the ML forum, you'd probably find it. Iirc Homer started it.

[pmallon]

In the long run, it doesnt matter if you score 6 runs on 6 solo home runs or on a bunch of singles and doubles, but I think its more likely that you're going to score 6 runs with singles and doubles.

What you are missing is how hard it is to get six hits in a row, or even 6 out of 12 for that matter. remember that this is a sport that you are considered good in when you fail 7 out of 10 times. plan and simple the homerun is the easiest way to score a run.

[joepepsi]

A home run is the most efficient method of scoring one run.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am not sure I buy the word efficient whem it comes to scoring runs the way you guys are talking about them. Isn't the only way efficiency is really involved calculated via ...

 

amount of plate appearances / amount of runs ???

[paul253]

What you are missing is how hard it is to get six hits in a row, or even 6 out of 12 for that matter. remember that this is a sport that you are considered good in when you fail 7 out of 10 times. plan and simple the homerun is the easiest way to score a run.

 

Well obviously if you need ONE run then yes, hitting a home run is the quickest way to get it. But I think what you are missing is that even amazing home run hitter only averages one home run every 3.5/4 games. More likely its closer to a home run every 5-6 games. Over the past 3 years, Mike Cameron has averaged one home run every 23.6 (2009), 17.7 (2008), and 27.2 (2007) at bats. So that's at least one extra run every 4-7 games. I don't think its a stretch to say someone could match that by getting on base more and being able to steal more bases. Also, while hitting a home run may be easier to score one run, having guys hitting singles, doubles, and not striking out, as opposed to waiting for the home run ball, may make it easier to score multiple runs. It also increases pitch counts for opposing pitchers, makes them pitch out of the less comfortable stretch and lose a little bit of focus while paying attention to a base runner. Like I said though, ideally it would be nice to have a balance, where two or three guys have the ability to get on base at a high percentage, and two or three guys have the ability to hit the long ball.

[nate82]

Except Cameron hits more doubles than Morgan and triples are nearly always luck based since you need a fielder to help you out or hit it in the right spot of the OF to get one. Even when you take into account Morgan having less strike outs he is still less productive than Cameron is. Cameron walks more than Morgan does and he has more power than Morgan. Now Power does not equal just home runs power equals home runs and doubles which Cameron excels at more so than Morgan does.

 

Higher strike outs usually equate to higher power numbers in doubles and home runs. Not only does Cameron also have better power numbers than Morgan he also drives in more runs than Morgan.

 

Cameron's 2009 season

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	Mil	118	425	61	110	24	3	18	54	69	121	6	3	.259	.362	.456	.818

Morgan's 2009 season

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	--	119	469	73	144	15	7	3	39	39	74	40	17	.307	.368	.388	.756

Morgan only has 25 total extra base hits that is exactly 1 more double than Cameron has hit so far this year. You will also notice that Morgan's OBP is only .006 points higher I believe that is a couple of hits or walks and Cameron would be at Morgan's OBP. So no Morgan doesn't really get on base more than Cameron does. If you use wRC over at fangraphs.com you will find that Camerons runs created based on his wOBAis at 71.4 while Morgan's is at 68.0. When you look at OPS for CF you will see that Cameron is once again in the top 5 of CF in all of baseball. Cameron is more valuable to the Brewers than Morgan is.

[paul253]

Well we could go back and forth on this forever, its just a matter of opinion. You can't fairly use RBI numbers when one them is a leadoff hitter and one of them spent a good portion of the season as a #5 or #6 hitter, when runners are more likely to be on. Also walks. Cameron IS probably better at drawing walks. However, again, I think the fact that Morgan hits leadoff may work against him. When you walk a leadoff hitter, the next three or four hitters are usually the best ones on the team. If you walk the 5 or 6 hitter, then next three or four hittes tend to be not as good, especially in the national league when the pitcher hits. In other words, I think that teams would be more likely to walk Cameron with Kendall, Hardy, and the pitcher hitting next as opposed to Morgan, with Zimmerman and Dunn as the next hitters. Also, while it is true that triples may involve some luck, it also has a lot to do with speed. I'm guessing that Mike Rivera wouldn't have gotten 7 triples even if he had hit them in the exact same spot Morgan did. As far as extra base hits go, minue home runs, Cameron has 9 more doubles and triples and Morgan does. However Morgan has 34 more stolen bases. I think that those 34 extra bases Morgan got on stolen bases more than makes up for the nine fewer doubles/triples. Even if you add caught stealings in the equation, thats still 20 extra bases Morgan has got to make up for the 9 fewer doubles/triples. Finally, unless my math is wrong, which it sure could be, Morgan actually more total bases thay Cameron because he has 34 more hits, albeit in 44 more at bats. Plus, this is from someone who costs about 20 times less than Cameron does this season.

 

Like I said, we could go on all day about who we each think would be better in the lineup. I guess its just a matter of personal preference.

[Never Outhustled]

A player needs to steal 2 bases to make up for every caught stealing. Morgan, despite his awesome speed, has been caught stealing a whopping 17 times this year. Essentially, he has just 6 steals. It would be an absolute travesty to get caught stealing that often in front of Braun and Fielder.

[MJLiverock]

Plus, this is from someone who costs about 20 times less than Cameron does this season.

 

Like I said, we could go on all day about who we each think would be better in the lineup. I guess its just a matter of personal preference.

We all could round and round on this but it has been shown Cameron is a supperior ball player, he gets on base at the same rate while hitting for more extra base hits. Now Morgan is ok and sure it would be great to just slide the savings over to pitching but it doesn't work that way. The 20x argument while factually correct, isn't comparably correct. That's like the Cubs questioning paying Lilly $12MM and saying they could have Gallardo instead for $500,000.

 

Morgan isn't available for next year at $500,000. He is under another team's control so a player has to be traded to obtain him. A player that could be used to try an obtain pitching so it isn't just a simple swap of Morgan over Cameron and poof our pitching gets better at the expense of some offense with the savinigs. He will become arby eligible in 2011 so that salary will go up. The Nationals would probably ask for Lorenzo Cain plus another prospect for him (most likely an A ball pitcher if I were them), assuming Cain projects to be Morgan in the majors and they have to be compensated for the risk he doesn't make it and for giving up a player they control for 4 more years in CF.

 

Morgan is also only 69% successfull in steals in his career 56/81, this year about the same 40/57 for 70% so he is borderline adding value with his running if you use the 70% break even rate.

[paul253]

We all could round and round on this but it has been shown Cameron is a supperior ball player, he gets on base at the same rate while hitting for more extra base hits. Now Morgan is ok and sure it would be great to just slide the savings over to pitching but it doesn't work that way. The 20x argument while factually correct, isn't comparably correct. That's like the Cubs questioning paying Lilly $12MM and saying they could have Gallardo instead for $500,000.

 

How has it been proven he is a superior player? You're basing that entirely on slugging percentage, which is inaccurate because home runs are not Morgan's game. Morgan's career OBP is higher than Cameron's. In fact, this season is Cameron's highest for OBP since 2000, which could very well be from him drawing more walks due to the absolute crap (Hart, Kendall, Hall, Hardy) that's been hitting behind him all season. Morgan has a whopping 9 fewer doubles and triples than Cameron, but he makes up for it with something like 30 more stolen bases. He's hitting almost 50 points higher than Cameron, has a higher OBP, has more hits and has more total bases. I don't see how you just claim Cameron is superior offensively because he hits more home runs and a few more extra base hits.

[Never Outhustled]

Morgan has a whopping 9 fewer doubles and triples than Cameron, but he makes up for it with something like 30 more stolen bases.

You mean 0 more stolen bases. Morgans steals are wiped out by his 17 caught stealings. The break even rate for stolen bases is 70%. Thats Morgans success rate. He is 0 steals over break even. Morgan would have the same value as a player if he never attempted a steal.

 

Morgan is a perfect example of why the equation that uses only OBA and Slugging%, can accurately equate a teams total Runs Scored, with out even needing to account for stolen bases.

[TooLiveBrew]

How has it been proven he is a superior player?

 

Because at worst for Cam their defense is equal, and his offense, as proven by those pesky facts, is superior. You're the only convinced that Morgan is more valuable.

 

 

I don't see how you just claim Cameron is superior offensively because he hits more home runs and a few more extra base hits.

 

If you can't see the irony & just plain error in this comment, then no one should even bother carrying this discussion with you any further.

[paul253]

Because at worst for Cam their defense is equal, and his offense, as proven by those pesky facts, is superior. You're the only convinced that Morgan is more valuable.

 

For one, you shouldn't use the term "valuable" because value I would think would include salary which would bring a whole new wrinkle to the argument. Also, despite the little cheap shot you had in there, you didn't answer the question, you simply repeated the statement. We can agree defense is a push which brings it strictly to offense. I repeat my argument that people are claiming he is a "superior" player because he hits more home runs and doubles. You can pretend you're using OPS if you want, but you're not, you're only going by slugging percentage because Morgan's OBP is a tad higher. For your argument you could add walks, and probably RBI, but for mine I can use hits, triples, strikeouts, stolen bases, batting average, total bases and on base percentage.

 

Please don't try to undermine me by making it appear as though I don't know what I'm talking about. I said before its a matter of opinion. If you believe Cameron is better....fine. But don't act as though if someone disagrees with you they don't know what they're talking about. It seems to me that you are ignoring some of those "pesky facts" yourself.

[TooLiveBrew]

What facts am I ignoring? I actually can't agree necessarily that defense is a push, because I haven't seen enough of Morgan's d. I know Cam's defense is about as good as you can find, though.

 

 

You can pretend you're using OPS if you want, but you're not, you're only going by slugging percentage because Morgan's OBP is a tad higher.

 

I'm sorry paul, this just isn't a question to me. An OPS of .818 (Cameron) leads to more runs scored than an OPS of .756 (Morgan), especially when the OBPs are basically identical. And beyond that, Cameron has a career's worth of work to demonstrate that he works BBs well & also SLGs well. Morgan has only demonstrated that it's taken him until his peak seasons to actually even get a fulltime job, and even now he can't hit for power or BB.

 

I get it, you like speed & the SB, & you hate strikeouts. But the problem is that K's don't ever show any more negative value than any other outs, and basestealing doesn't show any real increase in runs scored (because of CS). I understand you are stating that you prefer Morgan, but the problem imo comes in when you're telling people that the statement, 'Cameron is the better player' is just preference. It isn't.

[endaround]

If Morgan was already on the Brewers and we were talking about spending the money to keep Cameron or starting Morgan and spending $10m elsewhere thats one thing. But you assume that Morgan is available for peanuts from the Nationals when there is just no reason to believe that. That's like saying the Brewers should have traded Sheets in 2004 for 2 B level prospects because the Brewers suck so bad they won't care.

[paul253]

I disagree. First off, you can't hold Morgan's relatively small sample size against him. You can say we'll see if he can maintain it, but you can only guess that he won't keep it up. Morgan's career OBP is something like 21 points higher than Cameron's even though its only been over about 200 games. Second, my point about OPS is this. Slugging percentage is almost always going to be significantly higher than on base percentage. Its just the way the statistics are set up. So if you are only using OPS to compare two players, the one with the higher slugging percentage is almost always going to seem like the "better" player. If Cameron has 9 more doubles and 15 more home runs than Morgan, but Morgan has 54 more singles and 4 more triples, you can again only assume that those type of hits Cameron has will lead to more runs than the hits that Morgan has. And it's not that I "love" stolen bases. Its that if he has 54 more singles, does he not only need to steal 9 of the 54 times to essentially be equal in doubles to Cameron? And as far caught stealings. A single and a caught stealing is in my mind the same thing as a ground out or a popout in that the result is one out and nobody on. So again, even if Morgan has 14 more caught stealings, you also have to consider the fact he has 34 more hits.

'Cameron is the better player' is just preference. It isn't.

 

Except that in my opinion it is. They are two very different type of players, offensively, which is why I have a hard time just accepting the flat out "Cameron is better" argument, which I still believe is based largely on slugging percentage. Also, I'm not technically arguing Morgan is better, I'm saying I think he'd be a better fit in our lineup which relies heavily on the home run ball. I think Morgan is more likely to get on base the Cameron, which would lead to more oppurtunities for other hitters to drive in runs.

[MJLiverock]

Singles count toward slugging percentages so Morgan's more hits vs. Camerons' more walks are already included in the OPS stat. They are a wash in OBP but the Cameron still slugs so much better than Morgan that he overcomes the fewer relative hits. So you're right the difference in OPS is almost entirely due to SLG but not because they are weighted differently but because Cameron just flat out slugs a whole lot better even with fewer total hits to add to his slugging.

 

The salary argument just isn't relative since it isn't just a matter of signing Morgan to a $500,000 deal in the offseason as has been shown.

[CheezWizHed]

Its like the US Congress:

 

Every state gets 2 seats in the Senate, not matter how big the state = Every hit or walk adds to the OBP, not matter how big the hit.

Every state gets a varying amount of seats in the House depending on how big it is = Every hit adds to the SLG depending on how big of a hit it was.

 

OPS = best of both.

 

Not sure that adds to the conversation, but it just popped into my head (and as my avatar shows, spills right out onto the "paper")

[Fatter than Joey]

Now Power does not equal just home runs power equals home runs and doubles which Cameron excels at more so than Morgan does.

 

I don't think it is reasonable to exclude 3bs altogether in your "power" argument -- I realize you claim they are lucky, but I think (perhaps) the only thing that is lucky is the extra base from 2b-3b. In almost all cases a 3b is a very well hit ball -- maybe an extra carom allows the runner to get from 2nd to 3rd -- but to exclude 3bs as factor altogether is very very flawed -- I think you are excluding them to help your argument.

[Mr Southpaw]

This thread is about how to make us better in 2010. Bottom line is we need starting pitching. Bottom line is we need starting pitching. FA or trades, bottom line is we need starting pitching. In Free Agency , there is not much to like. If we trade, Prince and Hardy is the only logical option. Prince is selling high right now, Hardy low, and we need multiple (2-3) starting pitchers. To me it is a no brainer. I am sure most of you will disagree.

[paul253]

Trading Prince will kill the lineup, and we have nobody to replace him. I don't think that's an option. I think trading Hardy is a given, but really, what do you expect to get for him? He's been just awful all season long, and he can't even get back on track in the minors. I don't think we could get anything more than a #4 pitcher or a couple of prospects for him. And we don't really need 2-3 pitchers. Whether we like it or not, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan will be in the rotation, so we need to replace one starter. We do need depth though. I think its a given we have to try to resign Mike Jones and guarentee him a fair shot and the fifth spot. Maybe a Hardy trade can bring back a major league ready prospect we could also let shoot for that 5th spot. After that you're going to have to rely on guys like Josh Butler., Chris Cody and Chase Wright. As much as I hate to say this, I think the success of the pitching staff next year will depend mainly on how much better Parra can be and the health of everyone else.