Building the 2010 Brewers: Who do we deal and what/who do we look for?

[nate82]

I seriously doubt any GM in MLB would be willing to trade a #2 or #3 pitcher for either Hardy or Hart. In fact I doubt the Brewers could get a #2 pitcher for both Hardy and Hart

Are you sure about that? Hardy before this year would have fetched a #2 or a #3 starter putting both together will get you at least a #3 starter. If Hardy stays down throughout and has his free agency prolonged for another year that is even more valuable to a team. It is not what you have done for me lately like fans like to look at things it is what have you done throughout your career that GM's look at. Players will have down years and they will have up years it is just going to happen. I'm willing to bet Hardy will have an up year next year for whoever he plays for.

 

You are underestimating Hardy's value by a lot.

[pete]

The thought of McGehee blocking Gamel still makes my blood boil. If that's Melvin's plan, I want him gone for sure.

 

TooLive, we're talking chatting on a forum here. Melvin sure seems like he's committed to Gamel at 3rd. At least according to Ash/Melvin they've been assured by Money and Iorg (roving infield guy right?) that he can stick. If they wanted him to be an outfielder, they would be working him there. Despite what some people think, its not automatic to move out there and do well. They are doing that despite the noise by self-appointed experts who declare that its impossible or that he should move. I'd add that some of those experts declared that he had a weak arm and that meant he couldn't play RF. Does anyone think that arm is weak?

 

McGehee has done really well in a partial season of at bats. He's got a good glove and versatility, but he's older and has a balky knee - that's not going to be a big trade chip. He's a perfect bench guy who can get some starts at 3rd, 2nd, could play 1st although that is never needed and can be the emergency catcher for the manager's psyche to use a PH as well as PH himself. Plus he seems well liked by the players and coaches. That's a lot of good stuff for league minimum, but I'd be shocked if they made him the starter at 3rd unless Gamel has a really bad year.

[BrewCrewForever]

What if Gamel is playing LF and McGehee playing 3B? I like that thought if Gamel can transition to the OF the way Braun did.

[TooLiveBrew]

Glad to hear those reassuring signs, AKA Pete.

 

 

What if Gamel is playing LF and McGehee playing 3B? I like that thought if Gamel can transition to the OF the way Braun did

 

No, that's what makes me get all irritated. There is just no way Gamel shouldn't be our 3Bman of the future, and it would really tick me off if the reason was to get McGehee playing time ahead of Mat. Mat is going to be a better defender than McGehee, let alone a better hitter.

 

Now, if you start talking McGehee to LF & Gamel to 3B, I would feel better. But I'd guess McGehee's value would be higher in just trading him as a 3B/2B & signing a FA or trading for a guy to play RF or LF.

[The Truth]

I see McGehee taking on the old Bill Hall super-utility guy role quite ably. Considering the injury history of Weeks, Casey might be playing quite a bit at 2nd. Gamel is the every day 3B on opening day 2010

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm fine with Gamel playing 3B. I just keep hearing that his future is corner OF or 1B. I'm all for him being the 3B, just going off what I have heard. McGehee being a super utility guy would be fine by me.

[fleehaw]

I think more then likely Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan are all back as starters in 2010. We need a solid #2 to go with Gallardo. I think Parra, Bush and Suppan are fine for your 3-5 guys. But can we get a #2 to go along with Gallardo at the top? That is the question.

I agree completely. I also think it makes more sense for a small market team to trade for such a pitcher as opposed to try and sign them in FA. Thus, it would most likely have to be a veteran SP with a year or two before FA (to not have to sell the farm in return). Two names that come to mind are Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco. The price will still be high, but not as high as the Lees or Halladays. Both the Braves and Marlins have pitching depth. Vazquez will be a FA after '10, and Nolasco has 2 years to FA (I think) and may be getting a tad expensive for the Marlins.

 

Vazquez for Hart and a decent pitching prospect

Nolasco for McGehee (makes more sense with an Uggla trade), Salome, and a good pitching prospect.

 

You then have the flexibility to deal Hardy for prospects.

 

Just one more for fun.

Hardy to the Red Sox

Bowden, Ramirez, and McGehee to the Marlins

Nolasco to the Brewers

[TheCrew07]

You are underestimating Hardy's value by a lot.

I think you over estimate his current trade value by a wide margin. Who's going to trade a #2 starter for a 1 year rental of a SS coming off of a down year? The window to trade Hardy for any meaningful MLB pitching was missed, high ceiling prospects might be a pipe dream. If Hardy is traded for MLB pitching it will likely be some soft tossing smoke and mirrors back of the rotation player just to irritate the hell out of me. When I was talking about Hardy for Buchholz (a prospect, not an established MLB pitcher) I was working on the theory that he would actually go on a tear and get his average up over .270 at some point. Instead he's down in AAA and hitting .160 something after today's action, he hasn't rebounded at all.

 

If I was an opposing GM I'd be looking to buy low on Hardy as he's not someone I'd be initially willing to lock up long term, I'd want to see him play through August before determining if I would extend him or hope for some compensation. Then again, if he stunk he might accept arby and screw up that plan as well. He's become a wait and see player, was 2009 and outlier or the beginning of a downward trend?

[The Truth]

I trust that Hardy will improve upon his current small sample BA of .160 in AAA ball, but I agree it is very easy to overestimate his trade value at this particular point.

[jvrocksaz]

You are underestimating Hardy's value by a lot.

Who's going to trade a #2 starter for a 1 year rental of a SS coming off of a down year?

Hardy will now be under control for 2 more years (not just 1)... It may help his value a bit but not enough to get a #2 starter all by himself...

[JohnBriggs12]

What if Gamel is playing LF and McGehee playing 3B? I like that thought if Gamel can transition to the OF the way Braun did.

 

Or vice versa. McGehee could play LF too. The move they have to make is Weeks to CF. I agree Hardy's trade value is extremely low. He'd have to be packaged with someone else.

[Never Outhustled]

Edgar Renterria was traded for Jair Jurrjens. Matt Joyce was traded for Edwin Jackson. Both were # 5s at the time of the trade, but both are #2s since the trade. We need to identify the next breakout pitcher, if thats possible. Who are the candidates?

 

I really like Franlin Morales. He was rushed, but I think he's found himself again. Colorado actually has a full, solid, rotation, plus top youngster Jhoulis Chacon. McGehee for Morales?

 

James Mcdonald is being wasted in the Dodger bullpen. He has an excellent change-up he isn't even using now. Big and tall, with good velocity. Might McGehee, or Hardy, be a replacement for FA to be Orlando Hudson?

[TheCrew07]

If Hardy is down for less than 20 days he still gets credit for a full year of service which wouldn't effect his FA at all. He has to remain down past the Sept 1 roster expansion to gain another year of service time.

[Invader3K]

Hopefully the Brewers will keep him down past September 1st. It's completely justified based on his play in MLB this season, and his play at AAA thus far. Melvin had better make the wise business decision and keep him in Nashville, or I will be extremely angry.

[kramnoj]

He has to remain down past the Sept 1 roster expansion to gain another year of service time.

 

We don't know that to be true. Aug 12-Aug 31 is 20 days.

 

I don't know how much of a difference it will be. I think he will be more valuable, but I don't think he nets a 3 starter with 1 year left and a 2 starter with 2 years left.

 

If we really want to see what the market is for Hardy, we should just look at teams that think they could contend next year, that need a shortstop and have extra pitching to give up. What teams fit that criteria? I thought the best return the Brewers could get was Buchholz, but I don't think the Red Sox thought Hardy was enough of a return.

[TheCrew07]

Are you sure the clock starts on the 12th and not the 13th? At any rate he has to remain down 21 days, not 20.

[kramnoj]

Are you sure the clock starts on the 12th and not the 13th?

 

I'm not positive, but I don't think he would get service time for a day in which he wasn't on the 25 day roster come game time.

 

At any rate he has to remain down 21 days, not 20.

 

This isn't clear. From http://milwaukee.brewers....s_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

 

"According to Articles 19e and 21b of Major League Baseball's Basic Agreement, "If a player is optionally assigned for a total of less than 20 days in one championship season, the player shall be credited with Major League service during the period of such optional assignment(s)."

[Hate those Rodents]

Is there any point to bringing him up? Escobar clearly will need/deserve the PT now that we are out of it. If we really want the best hitter in (if we are dying to win a certain game) Counsell has proven all year that he's better than JJ. I don't see where JJ will/should get PT on this club. His time in Milwaukee should be completed.

[TooLiveBrew]

The move they have to make is Weeks to CF

 

That's a really poor idea at this point imo. Weeks has finally turned himself into a good defender at 2B (at least for what he got to play this season), and hasn't played CF since college. His value at 2B is much higher than it is in CF.

[twobrewers]

Mat is going to be a better defender than McGehee, let alone a better hitter.

I love Mat. But McGehee is a really good defender.

 

I agree he will be a better hitter - but you really have nothing on which to base the "better defender" comment.

[trwi7]

McGehee hasn't been a really good defender this year. Maybe it's because of his knee, but you're just as off base saying McGehee is really good.

[TheCrew07]

I haven't seen a single metric that likes McGehee defensively, he rates out as pretty much average. Ennder mentioned something about BP, I don't have a subscription over there anymore so I couldn't look into it at all? He doesn't appear to have plus range, but I'm unsure when he injured his knee. I haven't been wow'd by him when watching, even making plays on balls hit right at him, and totalzone has him at basically neutral in his MiLB career.

[Invader3K]

The only scenario I can see that would require Weeks to move to CF would be if they re-sign Lopez....something I wouldn't necessarily be against.

[twobrewers]

I haven't seen a single metric that likes McGehee defensively, he rates out as pretty much average.

Can we get any information about McGehee's defense in the minors?

 

I know his defense this year hasn't been specatular - but all of the scouting reports had him as a very good defensive player. And Macha/Melvin has mentioned many times that his knee has really limited him in the field.

 

Lastly, McGehee being an average defender is still better than Gamel has shown thus far.

[Invader3K]

I don't think either McGehee or Gamel have gotten enough starts in MLB this season to really determine how good or bad either of them are defensively. I think both have shown they can at least be adequate.