Building the 2010 Brewers: Who do we deal and what/who do we look for?

[fallingleaves]

I think Cam ought to be retained and don't think we need to spend 10 million doing it. I think 7-6 million could seal the deal. I will be very dissapointed if Gamel is not the starting 3B and would like to see Escobar called up this fall to see what he can do for the team. Hopefully DM can pick up a true #1 pitcher, yet I am skeptical with all the bad comtracts on the books for 2010. 2011 may be a different story, however, I feel the team needs to lock up Prince Fielder.

[MNBrew]

The thing with Gamel & Escobar and when they become serious candidates for starting MAY come down to the organization just deciding it's time for that to happen (obviously it's not necessarily a simultaneous thing), making the complementary moves (like trading a current player or two) AND leaving themselves with enough depth to cover themselves (Counsell/Lopez/McGehee/etc.) in case it doesn't work out optimally.

 

It happened with Fielder. It'll happen again. I just don't know who it'll be or when.

[TooLiveBrew]

- Comparatively speaking (TLB's take), relative to other CFs, he's producing quite well offensively.

- Compared to what's normally considered good, his numbers are okay but nothing too special.

 

Neither viewpoint is wrong. Both are right.

 

I see what you're saying here, MNBrew, but the problem with the second assertion is that finding production at CF is conditional on the first assertion. You can't compare corner OF & DH type production objectively with CF production imo. You have to have someone that isn't going to negate most of his value in CF (like even a Hart would). An example of this with regards to pitching would be comparing elite RP to starting pitchers & diminishing the results of certain SPs since they didn't match up with guys like Mo Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, etc. It's apples to oranges, since SP do something RP cannot (or do not)... just like CF do what corner players cannot.

 

The only way you can analyze Cam's production fairly is to compare him with his peers (& for me also include defense). I think X says it best: "Pitchers that project to 4 WAR get huge long term deals, the kind that shouldn't be given out... Cameron is a safe, productive player, and should be retained."

[804Sox]

Agreed. Take a look at what Freddie Sanchez commanded and then argue that JJ Hardy is worth only a reliever. Yes, he may be "only" a 1 year rental, but he's also likely to be a Type A free agent. Those two first round picks are worth more than said reliever.

I think the JJ Putz deal is more realistic as a model, although there were some other parts that make it more complex. In any case, I don't think DelCarmen is neccessarily out of line as a return for Hardy in terms of pure "value", I just think that the Red Sox (or perhaps I'm just projecting my own preference) value him more than they do the upgrade that Hardy would provide over Lowrie/whoever for 1 year.

 

For what it's worth, I think the Giants are selling high on Alderson even though they probably could have gotten more for him. His delivery screams inverted W, even to a non-expert at mechanics like myself.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly, if the BoSox value a RP over Hardy, especially with Lowrie's durability in doubt, I would lose faith in the BOS front office if I were a fan of that team. Delcarmen is *way* out of line as a possible fair return for Hardy.

 

And if BOS doesn't view Hardy as someone they'd bring in to be around for at least 3 or 4 more seasons, then they have no business acquiring him at all.

[Invader3K]

Well, it's not like they couldn't afford to pay him an extension, especially with his potential contract value probably being a little diminished after this season.

[endaround]

Hardy=injured set up man? OK....

[BrewerProspectus]

Agreed. Take a look at what Freddie Sanchez commanded and then argue that JJ Hardy is worth only a reliever. Yes, he may be "only" a 1 year rental, but he's also likely to be a Type A free agent. Those two first round picks are worth more than said reliever.

I think the JJ Putz deal is more realistic as a model, although there were some other parts that make it more complex. In any case, I don't think DelCarmen is neccessarily out of line as a return for Hardy in terms of pure "value", I just think that the Red Sox (or perhaps I'm just projecting my own preference) value him more than they do the upgrade that Hardy would provide over Lowrie/whoever for 1 year.

 

For what it's worth, I think the Giants are selling high on Alderson even though they probably could have gotten more for him. His delivery screams inverted W, even to a non-expert at mechanics like myself.

 

It's pretty unlikely the Sox would trade for Hardy and only keep him for one year; but like like I said, even if they did that, the two draft picks themselves would hold far more value than Manny friggin Delcarmen. I'm not sure what you're trying to compare w/ the Putz analogy, but prior to his move to the Mets, he was one of the better closers in the game. Manny Delcarmen hasn't even been an elite set-up guy, much less a decent closer. The point about the Sanchez trade is that solid, MLB positions players hold far more value than do prospects, or relief pitchers. Alderson was a very highly regarded prospect, akin to perhaps Bowden w/in the Sox organization. JJ Hardy has been a better player than Freddie Sanchez, this year notwithstanding, at a position that's much harder to find a quality bat. Delcarmen's about to get run out of Boston b/c the hometown boy has lost much of his local appeal. It's pretty ridiculous to suggest that would be a fair deal.

 

As I said, the more Buchholz pitches in MLB, the more of a #3-5 rotation pitcher he appears to be--perhaps that's why the Sox kept him in the minors for so long. That's about what Hardy could expect to get at this point. If Boston won't do it, then there will be others.

[Bombers]

As I read through the boards, many people believe Gamel will be our starting 3B next year and Mcgehee will be riding the pine. While I do believe Mcgehee has proved himself as an everyday starter, I do agree gamel is our best interest. (Lefty power bats are a tough find) What I don't necissarily agree with is Mcgehee on the bench. While mcgehee has been a wonderful addition to our team, his value sits either as a starter or in a trade. Comparatively speaking, his value in a trade is greater than his value sitting on our bench.

 

Imagine what we could do with a package of Mcgehee and Hardy. I would expect together we would be able to get a #1 or 2 starter. I do not have extensive knowledge of who needs a new left side of an infield but packaging an all star SS with someone coming off a 300 season, would have to garner some attention. And sometimes it would be our best interest to trade high. (Bill Hall, Corey Hart both had great years followed up by slumps) Will Mcgehee follow suit or will he hit 300 next year?

 

If we did make a trade and got a legitimate #1-2 starter I think we would be setting our self for a huge run in 2010. Easier said, if we don't get another stud our pitching staff, what is going to make next year different than this year?

[Big Jay of the North]

Bucholz would be a great get for Hardy but I doubt it would happen mainly because of all the hype that has surrounded him. It would be a pr nightmare in Boston, he's become the Red Sox version of Phil Hughes interms of hype at least. You have to think the Sox will give him more time to prove himself. I would love to see the Brewers get Bowden and Bard (I know I've said it before and I don't think either would be untouchable). If Melvin has to include a B level prospect in A ball I think DM should take a hard look.

 

If Delcarmen is all the Brewers can get for Hardy we've got big trouble. Manny D. is a nice MR but not nearly enough value in return for a top ten SS. The two picks Boston would receive for JJ have great value alone and way more than Delcarmen.

 

Let's say JJ and Anundsen for Bowden and Bard. Would that get it done? I bet it will take more than just Hardy to get both and the Brewers need both or comparable players.

 

The Red Sox have one glaring hole in their lineup and that is at SS. Hardy's offensive game (especially the 07 and 08 JJ)would play wonderfully at Fenway. Boston and the Brewers match up very nicely for an off seson deal. Hardy will almost certainly be the best SS available this winter and whatever pitching the Sox lose can be bought on the FA market by a team with deep pockets. It just makes sense!

[BrewerProspectus]

Bucholz would be a great get for Hardy but I doubt it would happen mainly because of all the hype that has surrounded him. It would be a pr nightmare in Boston, he's become the Red Sox version of Phil Hughes interms of hype at least. You have to think the Sox will give him more time to prove himself. I would love to see the Brewers get Bowden and Bard (I know I've said it before and I don't think either would be untouchable). If Melvin has to include a B level prospect in A ball I think DM should take a hard look.

 

I think a month ago that was true about Buchholz, but as someone who lived in Boston for quite some time (tho not currently), the shine has worn off him, and most true Sox fans who don't get blinded by the hype machines, recognize he's at best a #3 in the AL; he just doesn't have the demeanor of a #1--he's really a lot like Manny. Last 100 innings in MLB, he has allowed 180 base-runners. Just think about that for a second....I think Hardy for Buchholz is a lot more realistic than it was a month ago.

 

Bard will be the Sox closer in two years; if they're not dealing him for Halladay, they're not dealing him for Hardy.

[804Sox]

I think you guys need to check out Manny D's stats and/or watch him pitch. He's only 27 and is putting up excellent results for the third straight year. The throws mid-upper 90's with a good changeup and one of the nastiest curves in MLB. I'd call it plus plus.

 

None of this really matters though, because my main point was that adding him to a Hardy-Bowden trade would tip the scales far too much, as would the addition of Bard. Lowrie's injury definitely makes Hardy a more desirable commodity for the Red Sox, and I could see a deal centered around Bowden working for both sides if ardy passes through waivers.

 

What would people think of Hardy for Bowden + one of Ryan Lavarnway/Jason Place/Caleb Clay/Fabian Williamson/Brock Huntzinger?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think you guys need to check out Manny D's stats and/or watch him pitch. He's only 27 and is putting up excellent results for the third straight year. The throws mid-upper 90's with a good changeup and one of the nastiest curves in MLB. I'd call it plus plus.

 

I've seen him pitch a fair amount. He's a solid reliever, but not one that would make me consider moving a SS like Hardy. I wouldn't call his results excellent, his WHIP is nearly 1.50

[LouisEly]

The argument of Cameron versus FA pitcher isn't a difficult one. Cameron will again be worth over 4 WAR this year. Will the $10 million Cameron would cost buy us a 4 WAR pitcher? Thats highly unlikely. Pitchers that project to 4 WAR get huge long term deals, the kind that shouldn't be given out.

While Cam is a great player, I would give serious consideration that Borgeouis could provide a year of equal CF defense and replacement-level offense as a stopgap until Cain/Schafer is ready, and then put that $10M towards pitching until the next wave of pitching arrives in 2012. I didn't say that the pitching would be free agents though; it could be pitching acquired from a low payroll team (Marlins) that can't/doesn't want to afford the arbitration increases.

[fleehaw]

I'll echo the sentiment that Hardy and Hart are the most likely to be moved for the simple fact that they're the easiest to replace. If Gamel is your 3B and Weeks your 2B, then I'd add McGehee to that list if the offer is decent. The Brewers biggest need is a #2 SP to slot between Gallardo and Parra, Bush, and Suppan. Like it or not, 80% of the rotation is pretty much set for '10.

 

I'm of the opinion that the Brewers will not be trading for a young, front of the rotation pitcher. The Tommy Hansons of the league are far too expensive prospect wise to make a deal worthwhile to a small market club. With their commodities the Brewers should target a veteran #2 SP with 1-2 years left on their deal and young middle to back of the rotation SPs for AAA depth with the probability of moving into the rotation in '11. Two veteran names come to mind: Javier Vazquez and Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco is younger and cheaper so probably more expensive to acquire. Vazquez would be a very good fit for the Brewers. Here's a rundown of what I'd like to see.

 

Hart & Cody to the Braves for Vazquez. The Braves are apparently looking for a RH OF bat. 2 years of Hart plus salary relief and a possible back end of the rotation SP for 1 year of Vazquez seems like decent value for both sides.

 

McGehee & Dillard to the Twins for Anthony Swarzak. An inexpensive, supposedly solid defensively 3B/2B for an inexpensive back of the rotation SP. The Twins definitely could use an upgrade at 2B or 3B.

 

Hardy to the Red Sox for Bowden & Delcarmen. 6 years of a middle to back end of the rotation SP and a solid RP for at least 1 year of Hardy (& 2 picks) seems alright to me. I've given up the hope that Hardy will bring something huge in a trade and the above return is pretty solid.

 

Salome to the Rays for Perez. Perez is my David DeJesus of the '10 offseason (I covet him in every thread...almost). I'd play him in RF in '10 and take over in CF in '11. If he flops, a platoon of Hall/Catalanotto would be a sufficient plan B for '10.

 

Acquire Snyder from the D-Backs.

 

Bring back Cameron. If worse comes to worse, I'd offer him arby. I would certainly try to resign him before that. 1 year with an option year. Something like 1 year/$6-7M with a $500K buyout or 2 years/$12M-$14M. I think of the option year as insurance for a smooth transition in CF.

 

Bring back Hoffman if he wants. I have to believe that Melvin and Hoffman have an agreement that arby will not be offered. I can't see many teams looking to sign a mid-40's closer plus give up their 1st rd pick. He's been solid, perhaps he wants to come back for around the same money, perhaps not.

 

Bring back Counsell. He's going to cost more than $1M, but perhaps he'd go for a smaller contract with incentives based on playing time. Something like $2M and can reach into the 3's.

 

Bring back Catalanotto for the right price.

 

Lineup: Perez, Escobar, Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Gamel, Cameron, Snyder

Bench: Counsell, Heether, Rivera/backup C, Hall, Catalanotto

Rotation: Gallardo, Vazquez, Parra, Bush, and Suppan

Pen: Hoffman, Coffey, Weathers, Stetter, Delcarmen, Villanueva, DiFelice/McClung

SP waiting in AAA: Bowman & Swarzak

 

The payroll would swell to almost $90M, but with Suppan, Hall, Weathers, and perhaps Hoffman, Cameron, and Bush coming off the books after the season, it's certainly doable.

[jvrocksaz]

Hardy for Jonathan Sanchez?

or

Hardy, Hart & Suppan for Sanchez & Rowand

[weeks22]

What about a Hart and Bush for James Shields? This would give us an innings eater who is young.

[The Truth]

The first thing I'd do is fire Doug Melvin and hire a GM who understands that pitching is the first priority. I trade Fielder for several young pitchers (to Boston perhaps for a similar package that was offered for Halladay), I get rid of expensive vets like Cameron, Suppan, Kendall, and Hoffman. I'd trade Hart and Hardy for more pitching. I'd look at 2010 as mostly a rebuilding year starting Gamel, Escobar and Salome/Lucroy every day and build for 2011 with more salary cap room to pick up important pieces for that season with Lawrie ready by 2011 along with the rebuilt pitching staff anchored by Gallardo with Parra in the mix.

 

Prince could hit 70 HR's next year and with our current pitching staff it wouldn't make a hill of beans of a difference.

[nate82]

The first thing I'd do is fire Doug Melvin and hire a GM who understands that pitching is the first priority. I trade Fielder for several young pitchers (to Boston perhaps for a similar package that was offered for Halladay), I get rid of expensive vets like Cameron, Suppan, Kendall, and Hoffman. I'd trade Hart and Hardy for more pitching. I'd look at 2010 as mostly a rebuilding year starting Gamel, Escobar and Salome/Lucroy every day and build for 2011 with more salary cap room to pick up important pieces for that season with Lawrie ready by 2011 along with the rebuilt pitching staff anchored by Gallardo with Parra in the mix.

 

Prince could hit 70 HR's next year and with our current pitching staff it wouldn't make a hill of beans of a difference.

And you believe Melvin doesn't believe that pitching is the first priority? Also I doubt Mark A allows anyone even a new GM to trade Fielder. It is not just the GM making the decision it is also the owner it is fine and dandy to say trade Fielder but I don't see Mark A doing that he will try and resign Fielder and if they can't resign him by 2011 they will trade him then and not anytime sooner unless the Brewers are completely blown away by an offer.

 

Secondly Cameron is going to be needed because there is no one to fill his spot. Cain has had some injury issues this year and Schafer isn't ready yet he still needs to work on his plate discipline. Hart is easy to replace a Cat and a RH partner to platoon with him will get you Hart's production. McGehee might be a great sell high candidate this offseason and may bring in a #4 or #5 type starter with a big maybe on a #3 type starter if some team gets desperate for some IF help.

 

Escobar maybe the best option in free agency to plug a hole in the rotation. You could go with a rotation of Gallardo, Escobar, Bush, Parra, and Suppan. Yes Suppan is a good #5 pitcher he is basically the definition of what a #5 pitcher is. All the Brewers would have to do is find depth for any injuries maybe that means Capuano or Butler in AAA. I would like to see more possible players who could be injury replacements in AAA but I just don't know what will be available. Maybe even someone like a Mark Prior will be available this offseason.

 

The Brewers will be able to spend some money on free agents in 2010 but not as much as they will be able to in 2011 unless the Brewers extend Fielder that is. I don't see 2010 as a rebuilding year especially with some high risk and high reward players available like Escobar for the rotation. Maybe even Sheets could be thought about being brought back in 2010 I wouldn't be against that either. If the Brewers are able to get a #2 or #3 for a Hardy and Hart trade that helps the team out more than trading Fielder.

[The Truth]

I seriously doubt any GM in MLB would be willing to trade a #2 or #3 pitcher for either Hardy or Hart. In fact I doubt the Brewers could get a #2 pitcher for both Hardy and Hart

[The Truth]

Gallardo, Escobar, Bush, Parra, and Suppan with our bullpen sounds like a recipe for a .500 ballclub at best. We simply need much better pitching than that.

[BrewCrewForever]

If they Brewers start McGehee at 3B next season and want to move Gamel to the OF I would be okay with a OF of Gamel- LF, Hart- CF and Braun- RF. Hart is no Cameron in CF, but we need the $10 mill Cam was being paid this season toward pitching.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think more then likely Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan are all back as starters in 2010. We need a solid #2 to go with Gallardo. I think Parra, Bush and Suppan are fine for your 3-5 guys. But can we get a #2 to go along with Gallardo at the top? That is the question.

[jvrocksaz]

Hardy, Hart, Gamel & Suppan for Jonathan Sanchez, Aaron Rowand & Madison Bumgarner

[TooLiveBrew]

The thought of McGehee blocking Gamel still makes my blood boil. If that's Melvin's plan, I want him gone for sure.