Building the 2010 Brewers: Who do we deal and what/who do we look for?

[Big Jay of the North]

It's very disappointing to hear that King Felix was possibly coming to the Brewers at the deadline. What a one-two punch Yo and Felix could have been! I still believe this could be a deal that could go down in the off season and possibly just one of a few deals DM has to look at. With this uneventful trade deadline being rather disappointing I am starting to look into what can be done this off season to help next year and beyond. Here are some of the things I wouldn't mind seeing this winter.

Would Hart, Gamel, Salome/Lucroy, and W. Peralta be enough for King Felix?

Also if a deal of Hardy, Anundsen, and/or Rogers(a New Englander who I would include to replace some of the lost pitching prospects the Red Sox have suffered from the trade deadline and this coming offseason) to Boston for Bowden and Bard could be pulled off we could be looking at quite a bit of young, controllable pitching through 2012 at least.

I hope DM brings back Cameron for a two year deal, first year for 10 million and the second year could be a mutual option loaded with incentives. I also hope he brings Counsell back for 1 million, Lopez for 5-6 million. These two can serve as insurance for Escobar and McGehee if they struggle and Weeks if he continues to be bitten by the injury bug. In the outfield they could go with Braun in left, Cameron in center, Gerut/Hall platoon in right--I realize this is less than appealing but Gerut is fairly cheap and I don't believe there is a GM alive foolish enough to deal for Hall's contract or Suppan's for that matter, unless we eat most of these contracts of course, which is a possibility. With Frankie Catalanotto as the fifth OF'er and LH pinch hitter off the bench. DM should definitley try to find a better option in RF. A Kapler like signing wouldn't hurt, maybe even think about Weeks in RF. You could then play Lopez at 2B, possibly dumping Hall(wishful thinking).

As for catcher and I can't believe I'm saying this but bring back Kendall for 1 million and have Rivera or Lucroy/Salome as the back up. Of course if a better option comes up you have to jump at it. But as we all know DM loves Kendall for some reason. He should talk to his old team in Texas who have some catcher's with serious potential.

As for the piching staff, sign Hoffman for 7 million to close until Bard is ready the following year. Let Looper walk. A rotation of Yo, Felix, Parra, Bush, and Bowden or Suppan, with the other in the BP (if Bowden doesn't make the rotation have him start in Nashville until needed) could potentially be the best in the division.

The BP would be Hoffman, Bard, Villanueva, Coffey, Stetter, Difelice and the last spot could be Suppan/Bowden, McClung or the like.

IMHO this roster could win in the short and long term and would cost about as much as the '09 Brew crew with quite a bit coming off the books with expiring contracts after 2010.

Wow! It's fun trying to play GM! What do you think of my attempt? Pick away! Especially the RF and C plans, not too enticing.

[marty22]

Some good ideas, but i think you're way off on some other ones. First of all, I looked at the salaries the other day and came up with about 66 million committed when you account for arbitration raises (I used the 40/60/80% of Market Value used by Fangraphs). Paying Felipe Lopez 5-6 Million to be a backup for Escobar/McGehee/Weeks wouldn't make sense financially for the brew crew, and i also think it would be hard to get lopez to agree to this anyways.

 

Next, I don't think that package is near enough to get King Felix; go look at the package supposedly proposed to the Mariners by the Red Sox and you'll realize it would take more than we could offer, unless you're willing to put gamel, escobar, AND lawrie in the deal.

 

On the other hand, I really like your trade idea of Hardy to the Red Sox. I'd rather do Hardy for Tazawa/Bowden + Delcarmen and hang on to Rogers and Anundsen. I think the Sox would part with Delcarmen before Bard.

 

I would propose signing Kelvim Escobar or Tim Hudson (if his option is declined) along with the aforementioned Hardy trade. Signing both of these players would be fabulous in my opinion, provided they'll sign cheaply enough for us to afford both. Escobar could slot nicely into the bullpen and be ready upon injury to a starting pitcher. This would give us a rotation of Yo, Hudson, Bush, Parra, Suppan/Bowden with Escobar in the pen to start the year. Whether or not escobar would agree to sign as a reliever is another story.

 

As for salary, we'd save about 6 Million by trading hardy, which would be spent on Hudson (should be plenty with him coming off of injury). 10 million to Cameron, and 1.5 with incentives to Escobar takes us to 77.5 Million, with some room to sign Hoffman if Hudson takes less money. I'd also try to get kendall for about 2 million, taking us to about 80. Signing Counsell is key, but it would mean leaving out Hoff, most likely

 

Lineup: Weeks, Gamel, Braun, Fielder, Cameron, Hart, Escobar, Kendall/Salome

Rotation: Yo, Hudson, Bush, Parra, Bowden/Suppan

Bullpen: Hoffman (if affordable), Delcarmen (closer if can't sign Hoff), Stetter, Escobar, Villanueva, Difelice, Coffey, Suppan/Bowden

Bench: Counsell, Hall, McGehee, Catalanotto, Gerut

[KCBrewerfan34]

Cameron's money needs to go to pitching. I like Cam but we need the dough to go elsewhere!!!

[MNBrew]

For all the love Rivera earned last year and in '06, his offensive production in comparable PT this year is putrid. I like the guy, and I do think there is something to be said for continuity at the backup catcher spot. But sooner or later Salome AND Lucroy need to occupy a season-long major league roster spot.

[Big Jay of the North]

What if DM included Lawrie could the Felix deal happen? Hart, Gamel, Lawrie, Salome, Peralta? I know that would seriously deplete the farm system but that kind of deal was kicked around for guys like Halladay and Lee whom we would have had for a year and a half. We'd have Felix for 3 years! Seattle needs offense and Jack Z highly values power and that deal would be more up his alley, who knows maybe he would throw in Morrow too. This team needs to get a #1 or #2 pitcher. Yo is great but after that we have 4's and 5's IMO. Parra showed signs last night that he may be more than that but I'm not sold on him yet.

 

As for FA starting pitching, count me in the group that would rather not spend on the FA pitchers that will be out there. The top end guys will more than likely price themselves out of our market and the ones who remain that are decent options have serious durability issues like Escobar and Hudson. I would maybe take a chance but it would have to be at the right price. A Looper type deal as opposed to anything long term.

 

As for the Hardy deal, I believe Bard could be the Brewers closer for 4+ years, at a reasonable cost , unlike the millions that have been spent on the position in the past. I like Bowden and Bard because they could help the quickest and be around the longest. Maybe Hardy could land those two without the other prospects but I'm not sure. Epstein is too shrewd.

 

What are your thoughts on Weeks going to RF and playing Lopez at 2B? The amount then paid to Lopez would not be excessive.

 

A line up of Lopez 2B, Weeks RF, Braun LF, Fielder 1B, Mcgehee 3B, Cameron CF, Escobar SS, Kendall or replacement at cather and the pitchers spot would be pretty nice to see. Counsell and Hall coming of the bench on the IF and Gerut and Cat in the OF, and Lucroy or Rivera as the backup C.

 

The Rotation of Yo, Felix, Parra, Bush, Suppan/Bowden. BP of Hoffman, Bard, Coffey, Villa, Stetter, DiFelice, Bowden/Suppan.

 

That team could compete in the NL Central. Using my up nort math it looks like a payroll in the low 80's. That's including dead weight in Riske and estimates in arby raises. A low 80's payroll is about where we are right now.

 

The biggest question mark is whether or not we want to deplete our farm system for such deals not whether our payroll would be too large. Keep buying tickets Brewers Fans!

[dadofandrew]

I'm not sure how swapping out Weeks for Hart and Escobar for Hardy is going to do anything but weaken the offense.

 

The Brewers need more minor league talent, not less. Giving up all that for a young arm whose thrown tons of innings in his years of injury? I wouldn't dream of it.

[AJAY]

I don't have the answers regarding who we should trade for, who we should be willing to give up, or who we should sign as a free agent. But I do want to comment about the overall mindset of the organization and the approach the front office needs to take this winter.

 

First of all, I truly appreciate everything that Mark Attanasio, Rick Schlesinger, and Doug Melvin have done for this franchise to make us competitive again. I have no complaints about anything that has been done so far. I am truly grateful for everything.

 

But now I think it's time for the Brewers make a real commitment to being the best team in the division. Several years ago, the Cardinals decided that they were sick of being mediocre and decided to trade for Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renterria, Chris Carpenter, and Scott Rolen (over the course of a few years). Houston went out and got Jeff Kent, Moises Alou, Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens, etc. The Cubs were sick of underachieving and went out and acquired Ted Lilly, Derek Lee, Ryan Dempster, Alfonso Soriano, etc.

 

All of these teams seemed to decide at one point or another that they wanted to make a serious push, and they all went out and got what they needed to eventually win the division. I think the Brewers need to go out and raid the Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays, or any other salary-dumping team that may have impact talent. Yes it will stretch our payroll, but we need to topple the Cubs for a change because we can't fall behind them year after year. I hate seeing the Cubs win the division again and again, and I want our management to be sick of it too.

 

I know I am being greedy and very idealistic, but I want to see the front office really want a strong championship contending team. It's time to get what we need.

[Big Jay of the North]

Weeks could very well be an upgrade if he can stay healthy. Granted that's a big if. With the way JJ is hitting I don't think it would be hard for Escobar to match his output. These moves may slightly weaken the offense but the pitching should be much better.

 

As for Felix, I understand the years of injury and his IP are a little scary but any young pitcher is a risk. He is not the only young pitcher that should be looked at, but if this team is going to ever go deep in the post season it must have better pitching. There is a two to three year window with this current core group and there is little to no help on the way from AAA/AA in terms of starting pitching during that time frame. We know that the top end FA pitchers will be too expensive for the Brewers. If we don't trade for it where will it come from? I guess that's the million dollar question.

[igor67]

Cam might be pricey, but it's not clear we have a replacement. His offense defense combo is hard to beat this side of Carlos Beltran. Hart and Hardy are the most replaceable guys who might bring something back on the pitching side and also free up some money. One of the best things that could happen the rest of the year would be for Parra to continue to settle in.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cam might be pricey, but it's not clear we have a replacement. His offense defense combo is hard to beat this side of Carlos Beltran. Hart and Hardy are the most replaceable guys who might bring something back on the pitching side and also free up some money. One of the best things that could happen the rest of the year would be for Parra to continue to settle in.

It's not clear they won't have a replacement either. Unless he comes very cheaply, I'd rather not spend on an aging CF who has trouble making contact. His offense is likely to decline and it's not all that great now. Defensively he's still very good although not spectacularly any more and he's liable to lose a step at 37.

[Invader3K]

I agree with AJAY. The Brewers front office needs to take serious stock of where they are at, and not just hope that the young guys come up and make an instant impact (Escobar, Gamel, etc) and that guys like Hardy and Hart play better. They also need to get some legitimate upper rotation pitching that will actually keep us competitive most of the season.

 

Stretching the payroll for a year or two and then maybe scaling back after Prince is likely gone wouldn't be the end of the world financially, I wouldn't think. With the Cubs and Cards starting to get longer in the tooth, it would be nice to make a real push at dominance, if only for a couple seasons.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Cam might be pricey, but it's not clear we have a replacement. His offense defense combo is hard to beat this side of Carlos Beltran. . . .

It's not clear they won't have a replacement either. Unless he comes very cheaply, I'd rather not spend on an aging CF who has trouble making contact. His offense is likely to decline and it's not all that great now. Defensively he's still very good although not spectacularly any more and he's liable to lose a step at 37.

If the talk about moving either McGehee or Gamel to the outfield (RF or LF, if Braun is shifted over) materializes--based on the idea of trading Hardy and Hart for pitching--then an excellent fielding CF will be important for 2010. Not saying it has to be Cameron, but a CF who can easily cover gap-to-gap on defense will be needed to compensate for the other two players learning their positions, especially if Braun is moved to RF.

 

The lineup could absorb Cameron's declining offensive production (or another defensive-minded CF) if there is a boost to the offense coming out of the Catcher position. Having Cameron and Kendall in the regular lineup really shouldn't be an option for next year.

 

Carl Crawford would be a good target for 2010. Having Crawford and Braun in the corner OF positions might even make an experiment of moving Weeks to CF a possibility.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's not clear they won't have a replacement either. Unless he comes very cheaply, I'd rather not spend on an aging CF who has trouble making contact. His offense is likely to decline and it's not all that great now. Defensively he's still very good although not spectacularly any more and he's liable to lose a step at 37.

 

While I can respect the view that Cam might decline (& that you'd rather gamble with the money elsewhere), would you please stop trying to make people believe his offense has been anything less than great this season at CF? It is just pushing misinformation -- he's 6th in MLB of qualified CF in both OPS & WAR. You did this all last season, too.

 

 

 

Great idea on this thread, imo -- it's a good place for all the scattered offseason thoughts to come together. Fortunately for the Brewers, I think the offense is set, and all the solutions are in-house, save maybe at catcher. I also don't yet believe that MLB scouts & GMs are going to weigh Hardy's struggles this season as heavily as us fans do. I think he alone would still net at worst a serviceable (Bush-like) SP, and it probably wouldn't take too much to add on (Salome? -- just an example) to bring in a better return.

 

In short, I have full faith that Melvin will get the type of pitcher(s) this team needs. I think this season has been extremely frustrating, especially on the heels of the emotional high of '08. It's easy to lose perspective with a disappointing season (esp. when it followed feeling on top of the world), but the Brewers are still in really good shape heading forward. I think the obvious key is to land a top-tier SP (so far just this year Melvin has supposedly targeted Halladay, Peavy, & Felix Hernandez), and if possible get Suppan out of the rotation as well. I think it's a foregone conclusion that Looper won't be back, for better or worse.

 

There's plenty to feel great about with the offense, which imo will again be the best in the division. Adding Gamel (& getting rid of Macha or McGehee if that's what it takes) & getting Weeks back by themselves are two great 'additions'. And as long as the Brewers take good care of Gallardo & Parra, and don't rush Bush back, that's a solid start to a good rotation. I just can't share the pessimism that some have, though I understand & respect the concerns. 2009 has been frustrating thus far, to say the least. Imo it's important to keep in mind just how much of that has to do with injuries, though (including injuries to the some of the SP Melvin had targeted).

[MNBrew]

Wow, TLB. I'm right with you. Good thread & good ideas.

 

I waver on Cameron. I like him a lot. His OBP right now is .361 -- a nice number & huge improvement. He's walked 60x thus far. But there are negatives, too: a .255 BA & 96 K's are indeed blah at best. . . . I think there's something to what JB12 says, too. It's really all in how you look at it: There are comparative standards and there are ultimate standards....

 

- Comparatively speaking (TLB's take), relative to other CFs, he's producing quite well offensively.

- Compared to what's normally considered good, his numbers are okay but nothing too special.

 

Neither viewpoint is wrong. Both are right.

 

Those who, like me, tend to get fed up w/ what Cameron produces offensively relative to the value of his $10M salary on an $80M payroll, the problem isn't how well he's doing amongst CFs. It's how he's doing relative to what's generally considered good and how often he's coming through productively. Compared to Hart, other than his OBP, their numbers are pretty similar. Many people see Hart as more expendable or a less valuable asset for generally comparable numbers even though Hart's being paid 1/3 of Cameron's salary and Hart is 9 years younger. That part I really don't get. If you traded their numbers, many would still argue that Cameron's worth what he's getting paid because of how those numbers compare to other CFs. Then again, Cameron's veteran presence & role in the clubhouse is an intangible that doesn't lend itself to quantification.

 

I definitely won't debate Cameron's hugely better walk rate. But yeah, while Cameron presently has a SLG that's 20 pts. better than Hart's, the difference there is a mere 4 total bases in 7 fewer ABs -- that's really pretty darn close. Their BAs, HRs, & RBIs are pretty close.

 

So . . . When it comes to assembling a roster and making a big-time run for it, you need big-time players and that means some big-time salaries. With where the Brewers' needs are, I could much more easily see keeping Hart over Cameron because the production's quite similar and the cost is (at least this year) over $6.5M less -- which leaves more room on the payroll for filling holes with studs or making huge upgrades at already decent positions. And then again . . . . you get into how big the team's "window" is, who viable replacements are, etc. . . . Now I'm dreaming out loud, but if somehow moving other players could net Carl Crawford, for instance, regardless of who ended up in CF between Hart (if not traded in a Crawford deal), Crawford, or Braun, I'd settle for a little defensive downgrade in order to land a massive offensive upgrade/threat.

 

No clear answers. Lots of good things to consider. I see the future as half-full rather than half-empty. Lots could happen. And if nothing else, at least we're not in the organizational stage we were in the Lopes/Royster era!

[Hate those Rodents]

I like that post MNBrew. I tend to be in the same boat you are in with Cameron. I won't argue that he's very good defensively or even that he offensively is one of the better CF's. I just fail to believe he's a guy our organization should be paying ten million dollars to next season.

[nate82]

Some of Cameron's value comes from his defense which is extremely better than that of Hart's. It is nice to look at just the offensive picture for both players but when you add in the defense Cameron has a lot more value to the Brewers than Hart especially if you are not going to have a team with a really good pitching staff. If the Brewers are only able to get a marginally better pitcher for Hardy or Hart then getting rid of Cameron wouldn't be a wise decision.

 

The Brewers are going to need all of the defense that they can get. If you have McGehee or Gamel in the OF you are going to want Cameron in CF since both are probably not going to be very comfortable out there right away. Having Cameron last year helped Braun out a lot in his defense in LF.

[Hate those Rodents]

But I think for instance, Harang starting for Suppan (moved to bullpen) along with Hart starting for Cameron (in CF) makes us a better team. We need that ten million to fix TWO holes in our starting rotation. It'll probably take around 20 million and maybe more to do this. In this scenario, there is not ten million dollars for Cam. I don't think we improve two spots in our rotation without getting rid of Cam and taking somewhat of a hit defensively in CF.

[nate82]

But I think for instance, Harang starting for Suppan (moved to bullpen) along with Hart starting for Cameron (in CF) makes us a better team. We need that ten million to fix TWO holes in our starting rotation. It'll probably take around 20 million and maybe more to do this. In this scenario, there is not ten million dollars for Cam. I don't think we improve two spots in our rotation without getting rid of Cam and taking somewhat of a hit defensively in CF.

That would hurt the whole OF not just CF. Actually I think that makes us a worse team with Hart starting in CF and Harang. Yes the Brewers could use Harang but I would rather have Cameron back for another year. I doubt Cameron will get $10m in free agency unless a team comes in and overpays for Cameron. I believe Cameron will get somewhere between $6-8m for next year which sounds about right for a player at his age and the position he will be playing and the way the economy will be.

[MNBrew]

While I don't totally agree on the dollar value of Cameron's defense or the common assertion around here that Hart's a defensive liability (note that I'm not at all suggesting he's in Cameron's league defensively), there is some degree of merit to how much of a difference Cameron's defense truly makes -- how many more outs made, how many runs actually saved, etc. The question is just how much merit. I have a hard time seeing it as $6.5M worth of value over Hart. There are some stats you can rely on, but many defensive stats ultimately are conjecture since some are hypothetical.

 

The challenge the Brewers face lies in how to best try to put together a championship caliber team given the realistic payroll limitations that go with being Milwaukee vs. a big East/West Coast media market. Relative to the needs of this team, the question re: Mike Cameron comes down to whether or not the Brewers can afford $10M of a $90+M payroll for what he produces and brings. In other words, what's the greater need for the limited dollars available?

 

The problem is that this isn't NY or Boston. You can't have it all, so to speak, without paying every last nickel for it, and historically the Brewers aren't a team who can do that. Something has to give somewhere.

 

Does Cameron still bring a lot to the Brewers that they need, both on the field and in the clubhouse? Of course. However, given that Cam's not an offensive stud, and that the lineup doesn't hit for great BA and still K's too much, I could see the Brewers going a different direction in CF and using those big dollars toward more glaring needs. And then again, if Cam would sign a $5M contract for next year, maybe it's a whole different discussion.

[804Sox]

According to Gammons: "The Red Sox offered Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Nick Hagadone, Justin Masterson and position prospects for Roy Halladay. Debate that for awhile. Boston did not include Daniel Bard in their available prospect lists despite reports." [emphasis mine]

 

A pervious report stated the that Sox gave the Mariners a chance to pick any 5 players out of:

- Clay Buchholz

- Daniel Bard

- Justin Masterson

- Nick Hagadone

- Michael Bowden

- Felix Doubront

- Josh Reddick

- Yamaico Navarro

 

(This makes sense, as Bard, Westmoreland, Kelly, and Tazawa were viewed as untouchables heading into the deadline - Lars Anderson is also absent from this list, as well as Stolmy Pimentel)

 

Both were turned down, and are MASSIVE packages, regardless of how you feel about certain prospects. I think this probably just means Felix won't be traded . . .

 

w.r.t. Hardy, I don't think you could get much more than Bowden staright up for him at this point, much less Bowden + Bard/DelCarmen. I honestly don't think you could even get Delcarmen or Bard straight up for Hardy based on the fact that the Sox wouldn't trade Delcarmen for Nick Johnson, and reportedly rejected another offer from the Marlins in which Delcarmen was the centerpiece.

[Big Jay of the North]

804, what if DM included a Rogers and/or Anundsen into the mix? I would have to think that could easily get it done.

[trwi7]

I honestly don't think you could even get Delcarmen or Bard straight up for Hardy based on the fact that the Sox wouldn't trade Delcarmen for Nick Johnson, and reportedly rejected another offer from the Marlins in which Delcarmen was the centerpiece.

So you don't think we could get a reliever for Hardy? That's ridiculous considering that right now you either sign him and get him for however many years he signs for or you let him walk and get two picks for him.

[804Sox]

He's Braddock with a track-record of MLB success. You don't trade him for 1 year of a SS coming off a terrible season, when you already have a player you like at that position.

[BrewerProspectus]

I honestly don't think you could even get Delcarmen or Bard straight up for Hardy based on the fact that the Sox wouldn't trade Delcarmen for Nick Johnson, and reportedly rejected another offer from the Marlins in which Delcarmen was the centerpiece.

So you don't think we could get a reliever for Hardy? That's ridiculous considering that right now you either sign him and get him for however many years he signs for or you let him walk and get two picks for him.

 

Agreed. Take a look at what Freddie Sanchez commanded and then argue that JJ Hardy is worth only a reliever. Yes, he may be "only" a 1 year rental, but he's also likely to be a Type A free agent. Those two first round picks are worth more than said reliever.

 

Bowden could definitely be had in a deal for Hardy as could likely Buchholz, considering his performance of late against big league pitching. He's looking a lot more like a Manny Parra type pitcher/prospect than he is Tommy Hanson.

 

Bard is likely untouchable though.

[Never Outhustled]

The argument of Cameron versus FA pitcher isn't a difficult one. Cameron will again be worth over 4 WAR this year. Will the $10 million Cameron would cost buy us a 4 WAR pitcher? Thats highly unlikely. Pitchers that project to 4 WAR get huge long term deals, the kind that shouldn't be given out.

 

Cameron is a safe, productive player, and should be retained.