2010 Free Agent Starting Pitching Options

[crewcrazy]

If the season ended today, the Brewers would be in the Top 15 in next year's draft, and as a result have their first round pick protected if they chose to go after a Type A. Unfortunately it doesn't look like there'll be much available, but they may be more willing to go after a complement to Yo with that protection.

[Hate those Rodents]

I agree Lackey is worth chasing. I also like Harden more than most. Beyond that, see what if anything less a Davis/Washburn would take to come here and add one more starter via trade (likely for Hardy plus).

[nate82]

Escobar is probably the best option for the Brewers as long as the Brewers only over pay in terms of dollars and not years.

[BrewCrewForever]

Lackey or Harden wouldn't be bad options. I hope the Brewers at least explore signing them.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would imagine Lackey would be way too pricey & risky for the Brewers, since as others have noted he's basically the cream of this crop. I wouldn't mind at all taking a long look at Harden.

[jackalope02ca]

Well right now we have a #1 pitcher in Yo and 4 #5 type starters. Bush makes a solid #3 when healthy but as for the rest they are all viable #5 guys. You could get away with giving Parra one more chance as your #4 but I'm beginning to think his ceiling is a lot lower than a lot of us originally thought. Consistency is a problem. So with the free agent list being what it is a trade is the only option to bring in a #2. I'm not sure a package of Weeks and Hardy would get a #2 but I'd try that first. Realistically Salome, Gamel or Lucroy might need to be moved though in a package to get what we need. And that doesn't address any of our pitching depth issues either. At least we have what I think are some decent middle releivers moving up through the system. We shouldn't have to sign or trade for any of those the next several years.

[PeaveyFury]

While getting Harang for Hall was probably a pipe dream, I'd strongly re-evaluate acquiring him from Cincy in the offseason. Yes, it's a large salary to pick up, but if we're picking much of it up, we shouldn't have to give up much of value to get him. He'd instantly be a solid 3 for us.

[tigerbrew]

While getting Harang for Hall was probably a pipe dream, I'd strongly re-evaluate acquiring him from Cincy in the offseason.

Hypothetically speaking, if Cincy offer you Harang for Hardy, would you do it? Just curious.

[crewcrazy]

I'm not Peavey, but personally I'd have second thoughts about trading Hardy in-division, just in the off-chance that he figures out his swing again and becomes a very valuable player. But I'm not one to really like intra-division trades to begin with. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[JohnBriggs12]

The future of one guy who many speculated would be a nice buy low target is up in the air. Justin Duchscherer has been diagnosed with clinical depression and miss the remainder of this year. Duchscherer possesses the one attribute you can bet the Brewers will place high value on in their pitching search and that he's got a decent HR allowed rate of 0.9/9 inn over his career. He now becomes a higher risk sign, if indeed he decides he wants to resume his career.

 

The guys I now believe will attract interest from the Brewers are: Piniero, Davis, Marquis, and Washburn. I also think they'll kick the tires on Garland if the D-Backs don't pick up his option. Don't rule out Brewers sniffing around about Tim Hudson either who's got a $12 million mutual option with Atlanta. He's been rehabbing in the minors 12 months after Tommy John surgery. Not sure the Braves would commit that much to a guy trying to come back, but I'm sure Brewers will look at his historically low HR rate, Macha's familiarity and think this might well be a risk worth taking.

[Hate those Rodents]

I like the looks of Harang for Hardy in the off-season. I see no real need for either side to add anything. It's a slight gamble for both sides, yet both players could conceivably still play in another couple of all-star games. Maybe throw in some change-of-scenery-needing prospects on both sides to make it a bigger deal. Probably something like Hardy-Iribarren-Dillard for Harang plus.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like the looks of Harang for Hardy in the off-season. I see no real need for either side to add anything. It's a slight gamble for both sides, yet both players could conceivably still play in another couple of all-star games. Maybe throw in some change-of-scenery-needing prospects on both sides to make it a bigger deal. Probably something like Hardy-Iribarren-Dillard for Harang plus.

Harang is going to cost $14.5 million minimum ($12.5 plus $2 million buyout for 2011). Given Hardy's performance (or lack thereof), that deal is going to add at least $10 million to the payroll for 2010. That's enough that it would take them out of the FA pitcher market entirely, would use up a trading chip and would leave them with nothing beyond 2010. They really need at least 2 arms via trade and FA this offseason. They are better off with a mid-level FA on a 2 year deal and using Hart and/or Hardy for a guy at about the level Bush was when he was acquired.

 

It's not a terrible idea, but it costs them flexibility and doesn't address matters beyond 2010.

[Hate those Rodents]

You may be right. We probably had to try and do this deal with them taking Bill Hall. Now, maybe we'd need to figure Suppan into the equation. I guess when you figure salaries would need to balance out a bit combined with being in the same division, getting Harang is unlikely. That said, I'll be quite sad when he bounces back into the #2 pitcher we desparately need next season. And I'll be thinking of what could have been had we bought low on him.

[crewcrazy]

I stumbled across the latest free agent compensation projections the other day, and figured it might be relevant to this thread. Free agent pitchers from both leagues:

 

Josh Beckett (team option) - A

Cliff Lee (team option) - A

Rich Harden - A

Randy Wolf - A

John Lackey - A

Brandon Webb (team option) - B

Randy Johnson - B

Braden Looper (team option) - B

Joel Piniero - B

Doug Davis - B

Jason Marquis - B

Todd Wellemeyer - B

Jon Garldand (team option) - B

Andy Pettitte - B

Tim Wakefield (team option) - B

Kevin Millwood (team option) - B

Erik Bedard - B

Justin Duchscherer - B

Jarrod Washburn - B

Tim Hudson (team option) - none

Brett Myers - none

Brian Moehler (team option) - none

Mike Hampton - none

John Smoltz - none

Jason Schmidt - none

Carl Pavano - none

Jose Contreras - none

Brad Penny - none

Bartolo Colon - none

Kelvim Escobar - none

Adam Eaton (team option) - none

[Hate those Rodents]

Meh, we don't need another Looper, and being one of the worst 50% of the teams this year (cringe) means this is the year to avoid the type B's and go for a type A if any year is that year. I am hinting at Lackey and Harden of course. People that say Kelvim Escobar could be the best value are right, but that just means Boston or NYY or someone else will give him a better deal than u (kind of similar to Penny this year....he was in a similar situation and prefered to go to a team like Boston). Brett Myers is in a similar situation, probably without the upside of KE.

 

I can live with Washburn or Davis as a #3 as well, if we can pry a #2 in a trade somehow. I think most of us probably feel one of these two are the most realistic.

 

Off topic, did anybody see how close Felipe Lopez is to being a Type A free agent as opposed to just a Type B free agent? How would that change things?

[Never Outhustled]

Off topic, did anybody see how close Felipe Lopez is to being a Type A free agent as opposed to just a Type B free agent? How would that change things?

I saw that too, and its very cool. He finished red hot last year too, which makes me believe he'll continue it this year, and become an type A. Getting 2 picks for him would be real cool.

[Fatter than Joey]

I saw that too, and its very cool. He finished red hot last year too, which makes me believe he'll continue it this year, and become an type A. Getting 2 picks for him would be real cool

 

I am not sure a whole lot of teams are going to want to give up a pick to sign Lopez

[Never Outhustled]

I am not sure a whole lot of teams are going to want to give up a pick to sign Lopez

Maybe some teams wouldn't want to give up a 1st, but half the teams would only have to give up a 2nd rounder. I've never seen a team hesitate giving up 2nd rounders for anybody. We got a 2nd rounder (and a sandwich pick) for Linebrink, we can get the same for Lopez.

 

Edit: Thanks for the clarafication Logan.

[Hate those Rodents]

Lopez is our third best hitter bar none since he's been here. Maybe a whole lot of teams won't but a couple teams will be willing to give their pick up for a guy that can hit over .300 with some pop and speed and flexibility to play several positions.

[logan82]

The record of the club who signs the player doesn't matter for sandwich picks. The picks are assigned in reverse order of the record of the teams receiving compensation.

 

 

 

The Special Draft Choices described in subparagraph © above

shall be additional draft choices to be made immediately following

the first complete round of the draft and preceding the commencement

of the second round. Clubs that have lost a Type APlayer shall

receive the first selections, in the reverse order of their won-lost percentage

in the preceding season. Following these selections, Clubs

that have lost a Type B Player shall receive selections, in reverse

order of their won-lost percentage in the preceding season. Ties

shall be broken by lot.

[twobrewers]

It would be horrible, IMO, if Lopez was a Type A free agent.

 

No one would give him a long-term contract and give up a high draft pick for him. He would ultimately have to accept arbitration.

 

Was there any player that signed a long-term contract this past year as a Type A free agent who didn't get at least $8 million a year?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Was there any player that signed a long-term contract this past year as a Type A free agent who didn't get at least $8 million a year?

Juan Cruz wound up having to settle for $3 mil per year for 2 years...from the Royals. There may have been others as well. I don't think this year's free agent class is going to be nearly as confident that the free market will treat them more kindly than arbitration would, though, so I agree with you that it would be very unfortunate if Lopez sneaks in as a type A, for both the Brewers and for Lopez.

 

It's pretty sad that the system is sufficiently broken to give Lopez an incentive to hit like crap the rest of the year so that he doesn't become unsignable.

[Hate those Rodents]

I can think of greater tragedies than having Lopez accept arbitration.

[Never Outhustled]

Was there any player that signed a long-term contract this past year as a Type A free agent who didn't get at least $8 million a year?

Why does it need to be a long term deal? Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson both signed 1 year deals as type A FA's. The Dodgers gave up there 1st rounder for Hudson, and the A's gave up their 2nd for Cabrera. Lopez is similar to those guys.

[twobrewers]

Why does it need to be a long term deal? Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson both signed 1 year deals as type A FA's.

It doesn't have to be. However, without a long term contract, Lopez is much more likely to accept arbitration. Which would mean the Brewers would be much less likely to offer arbitration.

 

I think, as a Type B free agent, the Brewers will offer Lopez arbitration. As a Type A free agent, they probably won't risk having him accept arbitration. (Unless they move Weeks or Lopez)