Could McGehee be the Brewers best chance to net some pitching this offseason?

[LouisEly]

Trade Hart and Hardy for pitching. (Even though both have limited trade value compared to last winter.) Move Weeks to CF (where he should have been since day one as a pro!) or RF. Gamel at 3b, Casey at 2b. Escobar at 3b. Free agent for remaining outfield position.

The whole Weeks to OF thing completely skipped my mind, and it makes a lot of sense. They have depth in the infield, and should they let Cam go (only if they need his $10M to go towards pitching) a move of Weeks to CF, or a trade of Hart for pitching and move Weeks to RF, would be practically ideal. Assuming Hardy is traded that leaves Gamel at 3B, Escobar at SS, McGehee at 2B, with Hall/Iribarren/Heether as your backups. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

[LouisEly]

You have to trade Fielder or Braun to get a package that includes a young major league top of the rotation starter. Trading Hardy, Hart, or McGehee most likely will net some major league ready non star position player and a couple good prospects, including, hopefully, at least one hard throwing pitcher.

For the most part I agree, however it depends on the team. For a team like SF who has a ton of pitching and no hitting, a guy like Hardy to replace an aging Renteria ($8M for a .625 OPS this year) and a guy like Hart to replace an aging Winn ($9.6M for .695 OPS), younger cheaper more productive (even in an off-year) guys like Hardy and Hart have a lot more value. McGehee would be an upgrade over Juan Uribe as a super sub, and could be considered an upgrade over Freddy Sanchez who hits .300 but does little else as he rarely walks and doesn't have much power (McGehee has walked 15 times in 182 ABs where Sanchez has walked 20 times in 359 ABs, and obviously McGehee has a lot more power). Hardy and Hart might not get you Cain (it would be closer than people think), but could get one of their higher pitching prospects. I think people would be surprised what Hardy, Hart, and McGehee would get from a team like the Giants.

[BrewerProspectus]

I think Hardy and McGehee together (we might need to throw a lower level prospect in there) could get us a #2... and I think if you have that on the table you need to take it.

 

Starting pitching is more important than infield depth, I think. We need to take the opportunities we have to get good pitchers, not average pitchers.

I love the idea, unfortunately I don't think it's realistic. Nobody is going to give up a solid #2 type starting pitcher for Hardy and McGehee. Think about a year ago or so when Gallardo was the #2 pitcher behind Sheets. Would you trade Gallardo for Hardy and McGehee?? Sure we could get the Nats #2 starter, but I don't think that's what you had in mind.

 

I think a more practical way to go would be to trade some combination of Weeks, McGehee, Hardy, Hart, etc. for a real solid bullpen arm or two, and/or a starting CF. Not as urgent as starting pitching, but needed just the same. Any real quality starting pitcher that can be had in atrade will have injury issues, or in the last year of their contract. Best bet will be to sign a Free Agent for big bucks, someone with a talent level somewhere between Suppan and Sabathia. Otherwise, I'm sure Melvin will try to turn water into wine by bringing a few guys into camp with potential. Then it's wait for the farm. I just don't see an easy way to add a front of the rotation type of starter, there's lots of teams looking for the same thing.

Take a look at what Freddie Sanchez commanded. Despite his struggles this year, JJ Hardy could command a significant starting pitcher by himself. For all that people have genuflected at the feet of Clay Buchholz, he looked like a #3-5 starter at best yesterday. That's why players like Hardy hold a lot more value than they're given credit for (don't forget, he's a borderline Type A FA after next year--if he has a good "contract year" he'll definitely be class A).

 

That said, I think the debate comes down to the value the Brewers can get b/w Hart and Mcgehee. The Brewers are almost assuredly dealing Hardy and could include either Hart or Casey along with Hardy to net a #2 type SP (would probably have to happen in the case of Mcgehee, but not necessarily w/ Hart), but I think they may be able to comparable value by dealing Hart an dHardy separately (perhaps w/ a prospect included). The Rays are a very good option for Hart and a deal for Kazmir or even Shields is a possibility due to their financial constraints, window to contend (now), and compulsion to deal Crawford this offseason. In that case, the difference in prodcution b/w Hart and Mcgehee would likely be offset by the greater pitching value of a James Shields/Scott Kazmir trade vs. that which a McGehee trade would recover. If the Brewers could get Shields for a Hart/Lucory type offer or even Kazmir straight up for Hart, then move Gamel to right and Mcgehee to 3rd, that would probably be their best option than dealing McGehee with Hardy, who alone should net a pretty good prospect. The more that Buchholz struggles this year, the more likely a Hardy trade becomes; otherwise, Hardy could net one of the Orioles' young arms (see the Sanchez trade for comparison purposes).

 

So while McGehee may be playing over his head right now and may produce less next year, I think that production would be more than offset by the windfall of a Hart deal than if the Brewers just attempted to capitalize alone on McGehee's "sell high" season right now.

[BrewerProspectus]

You have to trade Fielder or Braun to get a package that includes a young major league top of the rotation starter. Trading Hardy, Hart, or McGehee most likely will net some major league ready non star position player and a couple good prospects, including, hopefully, at least one hard throwing pitcher.

not necessarily. Look at the arm the Pirates acquired for Freddie Sanchez, who is not as good of a palyer as JJ Hardy. Depends on a team's specific needs as much as anything.

 

A Braun or Fielder package would net a top of the rotation starter amongst a litany of other top tier prospects.

[joepepsi]

You have to trade Fielder or Braun to get a package that includes a young major league top of the rotation starter. Trading Hardy, Hart, or McGehee most likely will net some major league ready non star position player and a couple good prospects, including, hopefully, at least one hard throwing pitcher.

not necessarily. Look at the arm the Pirates acquired for Freddie Sanchez, who is not as good of a palyer as JJ Hardy. Depends on a team's specific needs as much as anything.

 

A Braun or Fielder package would net a top of the rotation starter amongst a litany of other top tier prospects.

Actually, the Sanchez trade proves my point. Sanchez netted a very good 20 year old pitcher who just made it AA this summer. I guess I didn't make my point well. I see Hardy bringing someone like Tim Alderson and maybe another player or two in the high minors who doesn't have Alderson's upside. I don't see Hardy bringing a Gallardo type pitcher who is part of the Opening Day 2010 rotation. To get someone at that talent level they will be coming from A or AA ball with the chance of making the team in late 2010 or 2011.

[BrewerProspectus]

You have to trade Fielder or Braun to get a package that includes a young major league top of the rotation starter. Trading Hardy, Hart, or McGehee most likely will net some major league ready non star position player and a couple good prospects, including, hopefully, at least one hard throwing pitcher.

not necessarily. Look at the arm the Pirates acquired for Freddie Sanchez, who is not as good of a palyer as JJ Hardy. Depends on a team's specific needs as much as anything.

 

A Braun or Fielder package would net a top of the rotation starter amongst a litany of other top tier prospects.

Actually, the Sanchez trade proves my point. Sanchez netted a very good 20 year old pitcher who just made it AA this summer. I guess I didn't make my point well. I see Hardy bringing someone like Tim Alderson and maybe another player or two in the high minors who doesn't have Alderson's upside. I don't see Hardy bringing a Gallardo type pitcher who is part of the Opening Day 2010 rotation. To get someone at that talent level they will be coming from A or AA ball with the chance of making the team in late 2010 or 2011.

OK, gotcha. With that, I agree. But provided that Hardy picks up his play a bit over the final two months, I do think Hardy (and perhaps top 15-20 prospect) could fetch a Clay Buchholz (assuming Clay isn't lights out). Whether he could get a Tillman or Arrieta from Baltimore or not would depend on a couple of other factors (how well Hardy performs the rest of the year, the ceiling of the other prospect likely to be included, the Orioles' desire to win next year, etc.).

 

If the Brewers can land a Kazmir or Shields with a Hart trade (more would be required to land Shields), it lessens the need for the Hardy trade to net a 2010 rotation starter, and the Brewers could afford to have that top pitching prospect pitch in AAA for a year and perhaps bring up as a bullpen arm for the second half (ala Price, Joba, Hughes etc.). That would be my personal preference.

[TooLiveBrew]

But those that point to his BABIP as unsustainable just haven't been watching the games

 

No, I have 'been watching the games'. To say a .353 BABIP is sustainable is just false.

[joepepsi]

Hardy is a great fit for Baltimore. But Andy MacPhail has proven to drive a hard bargain when it comes to trades. Maybe Hardy alone won't get Tillman, Arrieta, or Matusz, but David Hernandez or Troy Patton might be possibilities.

 

McGehee could be a nice fit for the O's too, with Mora gone after the season. Supposedly the Cubs almost got Roberts again this trade deadline. Casey could be good insurance if Angelos ever agrees to part with his favorite player.

[logan82]

But those that point to his BABIP as unsustainable just haven't been watching the games

 

No, I have 'been watching the games'. To say a .353 BABIP is sustainable is just false.

With his speed(and knee problem) I would have to agree somewhat. Matt Holliday has a .355 career BABIP and was as high as .380 over one season. I don't think that .353 is sustainable for McGehee. It is hard to say though since his BABIP is all over the place.

[Katuluu]

A package of Hardy and McGehee would probably be very hard for the Twins to resist. You could probably get Blackburn and maybe even a solid pitching prospect as well. That's just another team besides the Giants that would be interested.

[trwi7]

You could probably get Blackburn and maybe even a solid pitching prospect as well. That's just another team besides the Giants that would be interested.

The question is why would we want Blackburn? He doesn't walk anyone, which is nice, but he doesn't have great stuff and he doesn't strike anybody out which would be fine if he got a ton of groundballs, but he doesn't do that either.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why the anxiousness to trade McGehee? He's been everything most of this roster is not. He gets big hits, he doesn't take cookies only to swing at pitches that bounce.

 

If he drops to .280/.330/.475 with 20 HR and 65 RBI next year in 450 AB's like you all expect he will, he will be worth more than he's worth now, not less. Teams aren't stupid. They're not going to be convinced he's a .905 OPS guy going forward based on less than 300 AB's.

 

But if he proves to be a .830 hitter over a much larger sample of say 700 AB's combined between 09 and 10, teams will see him as a very attractive player.

 

He might just be a .900 OPS player. But he won't prove that this year and thus he won't be valued as one in the trade market. So the Brewers are better off keeping him.

 

Scott Podsednik retained a considerable amount of value even after a serious drop in production from his rookie year. That is the example to keep in mind with a guy like McGehee who is producing as a soon to be 27 year old rookie. He doesn't have to be great to retain his current value. He just has to show he's a solid major leaguer to validate this season. If he is great next year, his value will skyrocket.

[trwi7]

If he drops to .280/.330/.475 with 20 HR and 65 RBI next year in 450 AB's like you all expect he will

I don't expect him to do that which is why I would trade him now.

[JohnBriggs12]

If he drops to .280/.330/.475 with 20 HR and 65 RBI next year in 450 AB's like you all expect he will

I don't expect him to do that which is why I would trade him now.

That just proves my point that he needs a validation season to establish his true value. Right now, nobody knows what to expect of his level of play so his value is not very high as you think. That's why trading him is a bigger risk than keeping him. They risk nothing by keeping him as his value remains pretty low due to his status as a guy not that highly thought of in the minors who happened to have a hot 300 AB's his first time around.

[TheCrew07]

Why the anxiousness to trade McGehee? He's been everything most of this roster is not. He gets big hits, he doesn't take cookies only to swing at pitches that bounce.

Well we could spend all our time trying to build an offense with Braun at every position and sign FA pitchers like you want, but there doesn't seem to be enough money to go around... Somewhere, somehow, the Brewers need more top of the rotation pitching. Not Lowe, or Davis, anyone else from FA, but a young pitcher that can be in the rotation for 3-6 years.

[BrewerProspectus]

If he drops to .280/.330/.475 with 20 HR and 65 RBI next year in 450 AB's like you all expect he will

I don't expect him to do that which is why I would trade him now.

But who else does tho? You're not going to get that sort of value in a deal for him now anyway, so why not keep him and see if that transpires?

 

I think far more teams will value Corey Hart wayyy more than Casey McGehee; so much so that the return from the Hart deal would supersede their difference in production next year (which will likely be below those numbers above).

[JohnBriggs12]

Why the anxiousness to trade McGehee? He's been everything most of this roster is not. He gets big hits, he doesn't take cookies only to swing at pitches that bounce.

Well we could spend all our time trying to build an offense with Braun at every position and sign FA pitchers like you want, but there doesn't seem to be enough money to go around... Somewhere, somehow, the Brewers need more top of the rotation pitching. Not Lowe, or Davis, anyone else from FA, but a young pitcher that can be in the rotation for 3-6 years.

Casey McGehee is not going to get you top of the line pitching at this point in his career. He's not going to get you middling starting pitching or a high ceiling prospect either. Now even if you bundled him with Hardy, most teams see through what amounts to quantity for quality at this point.

[BrewerProspectus]

Why the anxiousness to trade McGehee? He's been everything most of this roster is not. He gets big hits, he doesn't take cookies only to swing at pitches that bounce.

Well we could spend all our time trying to build an offense with Braun at every position and sign FA pitchers like you want, but there doesn't seem to be enough money to go around... Somewhere, somehow, the Brewers need more top of the rotation pitching. Not Lowe, or Davis, anyone else from FA, but a young pitcher that can be in the rotation for 3-6 years.

agreed. but it's unlikely you'd get that value from a McGehee trade this offseason. Hart and hardy? Yes. But unlikely McGehee, just yet.

[Katuluu]

The question is why would we want Blackburn? He doesn't walk anyone, which is nice, but he doesn't have great stuff and he doesn't strike anybody out which would be fine if he got a ton of groundballs, but he doesn't do that either.

He's actually got a pretty nice fastball. He gets labelled as having mediocre stuff because his secondary pitches are merely average.

 

And while I think everyone would prefer Slowey to Blackburn, he's pretty much untouchable. Plus Blackburn has outproduced Slowey so far in their careers. Blackburn may not be flashy, but he gets guys out and would easily be our second best pitcher. That 108 ERA+ is nothing to sneeze at, and he's just entering his prime and should be relatively inexpensive for another three years. It wouldn't be a sexy move, but he's a huge improvement over the rest of our starters right now.

 

Which of course says more about the rest of our starters.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

he is our future not trade bait. i would not trade him.

[giffted1]

I find it hard to imagine that Melvin wouldn't trade McGehee for pitching if the opportunity arose. Considering our lack of pitching, our infield depth, and that McGehee's value is at its height so far in his career, he seems like a perfect candidate to be dealt.

[benji]

Isn't a .800 OPS average defending infielder for cheap exactly what the brewers want? I would keep him, plug him in at 2nd, 3rd or even left if braun moves to right and spend the money you save for pitching, pitching and more pitching!

[Oldcity]

Spend the money? Where, on the free agent market? Because there's nothing attractive there this winter. The Brewers will need to add pitching through trading. McGehee is a great trade candidate if you ask me. It would be nice to see the Brewers sell high on somebody for a change. McGehee packaged with prospects or Hardy/Hart could bring back solid pitching.

 

I'm not really sure who else there is to trade from the Major League roster. I seem to be in the minority, but I prefer to keep Hardy until he walks and make a push for the playoffs next year. Escobar hasn't struggled, but he certainly hasn't forced his way into Milwaukee with his offense. What's wrong with keeping him in AAA another year, keeping his arby clock from starting and letting the better shortstop play in Milwaukee? Use McGehee, Hart and the farm system to acquire pitching.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Based on his current production and number of at bats, he's on pace for about 280 AB's, 14 HR, and 52 RBI, which is the equivalent to a half season for a full time player. If his value still doesn't bring what a Gamels' would bring for a starting pitcher, I would consider moving Gamel instead.

[Never Outhustled]

Although dealing McGehee might be a real good idea, there's 1 major hitch in it. Its tough to get good value for a player who is recovering from surgery. McGehee is scheduled to get his knee cut on as soon as the season is over.