Brewers acquire CF Corey Patterson [Called up 9/4 - see reply 128ish]

[JoeHova]

The Brewers need starting pitching way more than they need OPS right now.

I don't really understand this viewpoint. I can understand saying that, as the team stands right now, it would be nice to add pitching rather than hitting. However, in most scenarios that people propagate, the Brewers are subtracting one of their 3 best position players (either Prince or Cameron) in order to get pitching. It's hard to see how that will do anything other than change the balance of the team. I don't get why moving Cameron is considered likely to net a pitcher better than him. In fact, I would argue that it would be very unlikely for Doug to be able to find a pitcher who can provide the value that Cameron does for his salary.

[monty57]

I agree that Cameron is worth what he's paid. The question in my mind is whether the Brewers will pony up the money to keep him. First, I'd guess that he will figure that he's getting near the end of his career, so he'll push for a multi-year contract, and he'll likely want a pay raise. Remember, when the Brewers signed him, he was serving a drug suspension, so the market for him was thin. I'd guess he'll push for somewhere around a 2 yr/$25MM or 3 yr/$36MM deal.

 

Here's how I see the Brewers next year (including my uneducated arby guesses):

 

C Salome $400k

1B Fielder $10.5MM

2B Weeks $3MM

SS Escobar $400k (only if Hardy is traded, which may now be difficult)

3B Gamel $400k

LF Braun $1MM

CF Gerut $2MM

RF Hart $4MM

 

C Rivera $750k

IF McGehee $400k

IF Iribarren $400k

OF Bourgeois $400k

OF ?

 

SP Gallardo $400k

SP Parra $400k

SP Bush $6MM

SP Suppan $12.5MM

SP ?

 

RP Coffee $1.5MM

RP Riske $4.5MM

RP Stetter $400k

RP Villanueva $1MM

RP McClung $2MM

RP DiFelice $400k

RP ? - Narveson type $400k

 

This adds up to around $53MM, plus we still owe around $7.2MM for Hall and will owe around $1MM if we buy out Looper's option, putting us somewhere around $62MM. It does not include Cameron, Hardy (who may add around $6MM to payroll if he isn't traded), Kendall, Hoffman, Lopez, Counsell, Weathers or Looper.

 

I'd assume a payroll of around $80MM, so we should have around $18MM to find bench / relief help, a starting pitcher and possibly upgrade other positions. I'd guess Counsell will be back, so figure around $17MM. If we sign Cameron, I'd figure we'll have around $5MM to sign a starting pitcher and strengthen our bench and bullpen (including a possible closer). Of course, we could dump Gerut and maybe others, but it still wouldn't be much money left. Plus, there is a definite possibility that we won't find a trading partner for Hardy, further limiting our resources.

 

For this reason, I'd guess Cameron won't be back. We'll offer him arby for the draft pick, but I highly doubt he'll accept, as someone will give him a 2-3 year deal. To go back on topic, I hope Gerut is retained to bridge the gap to Cain rather than playing Patterson, but I don't mind the fact that Melvin was able to pick him up on a minor league deal, and am glad that he is playing well.

[Diskono]

Lets see that list.

He's 4th in MLB in WAR amongst CF's, and he's 4th in OPS. 3rd in BB%. 8th in OBP, behind 3 guys who platoon.

 

The guy is a steal for 10 million.

Yep. His value is roughly equal to the 19th best starting pitcher in the majors. If we can get an ace for $10m, great. If not, Cameron makes more sense.

[rluzinski]

Cameron is admittedly an ugly batter to watch, so if you are the kind fan that thinks fan enjoyment is proportional to player value, you'll think Cam is not worth the cash. And the only stats that are correct are the ones that validate your opinion. Nothing to debate.

[RockCoCougars]

As I've said before, I don't put much faith in OPS to see the full value of a player. To me, it is way too highly correlated with bases on balls. In my mind, drawing walks isn't very indicative of a hitter's offensive prowess. I say this because the pitcher is more attributable to the walk than the hitter. Simply put, the pitcher is not doing their job. Granted, walks can also be indicative of being 'pitched around'. I would say drawing walks is more dependent on situation/luck than actual skill. I believe this is why Cameron's OPS is inflated and not truly representative of his ability at the plate. Who has been hitting behind him this year? Hardy and Kendall among others.....I would pitch around Cameron as well, and firmly believe this is why he will very likely be drawing a career high in walks this season. Cameron has never shown a good deal of plate discipline, and he swings and misses a lot at bad pitches, hence the strikeouts. The only reason his OPS is so high this season is that he is top 10 in the league in walks. Call me old fashioned, but I'll take batting average any day over on base percentage when analyzing a hitter, and in my opinion a .251 career hitter (who strikes out 150 times per year) approaching 37 years old is not worth $10 million, no matter how good his defense is.

[Hate those Rodents]

How come Counsell is allowed to suddenly be better but Patterson is not? Just playing devils advocate here. I don't really want to plan on CP to be on the team next year, but I also didn't want Counsell on this year's team after his showing the past two years here.

[rluzinski]

As I've said before, I don't put much faith in OPS to see the full value of a player. To me, it is way too highly correlated with bases on balls. In my mind, drawing walks isn't very indicative of a hitter's offensive prowess. I say this because the pitcher is more attributable to the walk than the hitter. Simply put, the pitcher is not doing their job.

 

Everything you've said there has been proven false a many times over. OPS is not perfect but it values batting events pretty well. In fact, it looks like it slightly undervalues a walk:

 

http://www.hardballtimes....icle/ops-for-the-masses/

 

And a batter and pitcher can take the credit for a walk pretty much equally. It's pretty clear that high walk batters should get a lot of the credit for the walks, isn't it? Or maybe they just face a disproportionate amount of high walk pitchers? It just doesn't pass the sniff test.

 

If we talking about projections, I certainly wouldn't expect Cam's walk rate to stay as high as it is. 14.1% now but projects to be 12% going forward, according to ZiPS. His ZiPS projection going forward is .248/.341/.453/.794. That's still very good for a CF.

[TooLiveBrew]

In my mind, drawing walks isn't very indicative of a hitter's offensive prowess. I say this because the pitcher is more attributable to the walk than the hitter. Simply put, the pitcher is not doing their job.

 

What might you guess would make a pitcher less inclined to throw strikes? Perhaps a highly skilled &/or powerful batter?

 

Simply stated, sustaining a high BB rate is usually very indicative of a hitter's offensive prowess.

[markedman5]

If hitters walking alot is just some random event that has more to do with the pitcher then the hitter why do guys like Barry Bonds and Pujols get the most walks year in and year out?

 

Bad hitters rarely walk alot. They swing at bad pitches, get themselves out, or miss very hittable pitches on a regular basis.

 

Now if a pitcher just can't throw strikes and walks everybody thats a different story but for the most part the best and most dangerous hitters walk the most.

 

Some good hitters don't walk alot but usually that is what's keeping them from being great hitters.

[MJLiverock]

I believe the "hate" for Cameron comes from his extreme propensity to strikeout often and in key situations. Jacking 2-run homers in decided games will not win anyone's loyalty, but it certainly will look awesome on paper when examining his OPS. Cameron is not worth $10 million, imo. He definitely plays a great centerfield, but for the first time in his career I can match every great play with an equally bad one this year.

There are 6 guys who play CF who have a better OBP than Cameron - - Span, Fukudome, Victorino, Fowler, Kemp, and Bourn.

 

Cameon has struk out 24.3% with xbh 8.9% - Span 13.7%, xbh 4.3% - Fukudome 17.7%, xbh 9.9% - Victorino 10.2%, xbh 9.3%- Fowler 23.1% xbh 8.8%, Kemp 21.8% xbh 8.8%, and Bourn 19.0% xbh 7.1%.

 

Cam has struck out a little more and has a bit more power than the guys who are drastically lower on the K rate. Kemp, Bourn, and Fowler have all K'd at least 100x like Cameron. (I didn't include Werth as a CF since he plays right most of the time and Victorino is in CF, but Werth has K'd only 4 less times than Cameron)

 

With runners on base Cameron has a .393 OBP/.425 slg/ .818 OPS

 

The guy is one of the top 6 or 7 guys in the game at CF, he puts up those numbers year after year while playing good D.

[greeg35]

for the first time in his career I can match every great play with an equally bad one this year.

I can almost guarantee that you can't.

[Hate those Rodents]

Well, if Lopez accepts arbitration, we'll likely have to pay him and Weeks enough money where one of them will be playing CF for us next year, so a lot of this Cameron talk about next year might be for naught.

[mothershipconnection]

To me, it is way too highly correlated with bases on balls.

 

Which scores runs. It's also correlated with hitting your way on base and slg, which is based on hitting, and doing it for extra bases.

 

In my mind, drawing walks isn't very indicative of a hitter's offensive prowess. I say this because the pitcher is more attributable to the walk than the hitter. Simply put, the pitcher is not doing their job. Granted, walks can also be indicative of being 'pitched around'. I would say drawing walks is more dependent on situation/luck than actual skill.

 

Huh?

 

Since 2000, your top 2 in walks are:

NL

Bonds/Giles

Bonds/Sosa

Bonds/Giles

Bonds/Helton

Bonds/Berkman/Abreu/Helton

Giles/Abreu

Bonds/Dunn

Bonds/Helton

Dunn/Pujols

Dunn/Pujols

 

AL

Giambi/Delgado

Giambi/Delgado

Thome/Giambi

Giambi/Delgado

Chavez/Sheffield

Giambi/Ortiz

Cust/Markakis

Pena/Bay

Ortiz/Giambi

Ortiz/Cust

Pena/Bay

 

I'm just not seeing any indication of luck here. Where are all the jokers who lucked into high walk totals? Where are the crappy all-glove stop-gaps that can be had for league minimum; the guys who will never sniff an all-star game? You should see a few Alex Sanchez's and a Mouton or two tossed in if it's random noise, but the data don't look that way.

[RockCoCougars]

If hitters walking alot is just some random event that has more to do with the pitcher then the hitter why do guys like Barry Bonds and Pujols get the most walks year in and year out?

As I said, I believe walks are largely based on luck AND situation. Some hitters accumulate more walks because they are 'pitched around'. The only difference in this case is that Pujols is pitched around to get to Holiday/Ludwick while Cameron is pitched around to get to Hardy/Kendall, etc. Do you think that Cameron would have as many walks if he hit ahead of Braun and Fielder? I say no. My guess is that 8 hole hitters in the N.L. also tend to have a higher OBP, because they are often pitched around to get to the pitcher.

 

Do you Cameron boosters honestly feel good about him coming up to bat in clutch situations? I sure don't. As someone else said, a good deal of his offensive stats come in games that are already decided.

[TooLiveBrew]

You're just looking for anything to fit your argument, and dismissing anything that doesn't. You have just made basic, general statements, and been refuted with facts. I don't get it.

 

My guess is that 8 hole hitters in the N.L. also tend to have a higher OBP, because they are often pitched around to get to the pitcher.

 

That's true, and a huge part of why Kendall has anything close to resembling a decent OBP. Guess who leads the team in IBB after Prince? Kendall.

 

 

Do you Cameron boosters honestly feel good about him coming up to bat in clutch situations?

 

You bet.

 

 

As someone else said, a good deal of his offensive stats come in games that are already decided.

 

Prove this.

[derflotr]

Do you think that Cameron would have as many walks if he hit ahead of Braun and Fielder? I say no.

 

No, he'd just be hitting for a better average. .340/.392/.574 (that's a .967 OPS) batting 2nd this season.

[Ennder]

Do you Cameron boosters honestly feel good about him coming up to bat in clutch situations? I sure don't. As someone else said, a good deal of his offensive stats come in games that are already decided.

 

 

I thought about not replying because it is pretty obvious you have formed an opinion and you don't want actual stats to back it up, it is just some random thought that you cling to. However in his career Cameron has an .836 OPS with RISP and only a .773 without. If you are the type that only cares about 'this season' he has an .896 OPS in wins and a .729 in losses so he isn't just showing up in losses. He has a .797 with RISP and .811 without which is about as even as you can get. He has an .815 in high leverage situations and a .816 overall.

 

Your thoughts on OPS are so strange that I can't really comment on them, if anything OPS underrates walks as it underrates OBP and overrates slugging. Cameron's overall ability isn't really driven by walks though, it is driven by extra base hits and defense so seems like an odd angle to take in general.

 

I'd prefer to see the money go towards the pitching staff

 

I can agree with you on that but lets be realistic. Unless we make a couple trades for AAA quality pitching we aren't going to compete next year regardless. Suppan, Bush, Gallardo, Parra is mostly like 4 of 5 starters and we aren't signing an ace given our payroll. Best we can hope for is signing a #3 type guy and if we have that rotation and no depth to fill in for bad seasons and injuries we just aren't going anywhere. The first step is trading Hart or Hardy for AAA good upside guys(we aren't getting great upside for either of them). If we can pull off those trades then yeah I can see spending the cash on a good SP and seeing what we can do.

[FVBrewerFan]

There's another factor involved here, it's how Cameron or his replacement would fit into this line-up. If Lopez is gone, we're back to where we started at the lead-off spot. Escobar would be a big gamble, msot of us agree it's not the best place for Weeks. The only position left that makes sense in the lead-of spot is CF. It's just foolish not to have two high OBP guys in front of Braun/Fielder. So while Cameron may be an above average #6 or #7 hitter, he doesn't fit the role of lead-off hitter, and his OBP really isn't good enough to protect Braun/Fielder either.

 

Is Patterson the answer at #1, #2, or #5? We don't know. It's not uncommon for players to play above their career norms for a couple years. Nobody is suggesting Patterson isthe answer for years to come, but maybe he gives you a year at a salary far less than Cameron.

[rluzinski]

Cam has had an above average walk rate his entire career. I guess that means pitchers recognized his awesomeness long ago and have been pitching around him for years? I know it was commonly accepted 25 years ago that a walk represented a failure by the pitcher but educated baseball fans should know it's a lot more complicated than that.

 

Cam is a patient hitter, who's willing to get deep into counts. It results in a lot of walks, K's and pitches that he can drive. It isn't pretty but it works. And as long as his defense is still above average (even if it isn't gold-glove caliber anymore), he has a lot of value. Will it be in the Brewers best interest to retain him next year? Without knowing all the variables, it's impossible to say. It's possible, though.

[kramnoj]

Gamel could bat leadoff, he should have a good OBP. Cameron could bat leadoff, his career OBP is higher than Lopez. Hart could bat leadoff. It's good to have a good hitter at leadoff, and if you have a good hitter who can make waves on the basepaths, that's good too. But a team doesn't need to have a prototypical leadoff hitter to succeed.

[joepepsi]

Patterson isn't the answer in CF. But they could replace Cameron out there with a slick fielding CF'er at a cheaper price even if he isn't as good a hitter. Is Gerut that man? I don't know. But the offense can absorb Cameron's loss through Weeks, Gamel, a solid platoon partner with Hart, or a different RF'er.

 

fwiw, I'd use Weeks at leadoff next year, bat Gamel 2nd, Hart/RF 5th. Maybe Escobar is the lead off of the future, but he won't be better than Weeks next year.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am beginning to like the looks of Lopez leading off and Weeks batting 5th, if we can be sufficient in CF with one of the two.

[JohnBriggs12]

Some walks result when the hitter has a low rate of putting balls in play per swing, therefore giving the pitcher a greater opportunity to miss the zone 4 times in a given AB.

 

Usually these type hitters aren't susceptible to expanding the zone so much as they just have holes in the zone. They also have enough power that pitchers are somewhat careful and may nibble a lot in certain situations.

 

Gorman Thomas was the perfect example of this type hitter to the extreme. He had huge holes in the zone and swung and missed a lot of strikes and struck out a ton. But he didn't fish for a lot of balls outside the zone all that much so if a pitcher tried to get him to chase, he usually ended up walking. He also had enormous power that when a pitcher got one in the wrong spot in the zone, Gorman could may them pay dearly.

 

Cameron has holes that are in the zone. He swings and misses more strikes than most hitters. Because of that he usually forces the pitcher to throw him a few more pitches than say a guy like McGehee who often puts the first strike he sees in play.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

It helped Gorman that he really didn't have to carry the offense. If Gorman went into a slump we still Molitor-Yount-Cooper-Simmons-Oglivie in front of him. As to Patterson, I don't think that he would be the answer in Center either. I think that Cameron is a far superior offensive and defensive player. I think that Jody Gerut would be superior to Patterson over an entire season.

[sheethead]

I am not sure I could stomach Jody Gerut in CF for an entire season. If this is the alternative, I would say show Cam the money.